KOREA DAILY INSIGHT - KIS GREG KIM
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Publicaciones del Canal
Measures to Improve Single-Stock Leveraged Products — July 16, 2026
Market Overheating Response
· Relevant authorities announce improvement measures for single-stock leveraged products (ETFs·ETNs)
· Temporary suspension of new listings for single-stock products until the market stabilizes
· Suspension of new launches for single-stock products, including inverse and covered call products
· Immediate ban on advertisements and promotional marketing for existing listed products
Background
· Continuous inflow of domestic investor capital into overseas-listed single-stock leveraged products
· Domestic products have partially substituted the investment demand for overseas products since their launch on May 27
· Market capitalization of single-stock products increased from W4.4 tn → W11.9 tn
· Trading volume increased from W10.4 tn → W13.0 tn
· Need for investor protection raised due to increased price volatility of major memory semiconductor companies
Strengthening Discrepancy Ratio Management
· LP discrepancy ratio management standard tightened from 3% → 2% (implemented in August)
· Establish grounds to restrict new liquidity provision operations for LPs with intentional or grossly negligent violations
· Review restricting new ETF listings for ETF managers that repeatedly violate appropriate discrepancy ratios
· Shorten the investment alert stock designation procedure from 3 stages → 2 stages
Strengthening Investor Protection
· Expand pre-investment education for single-stock leveraged products from 2 hours → 3 hours
· Add education focusing on recent market conditions and loss cases
· Mandate retaking the education if the intermediate evaluation score is below 60 points
· Automatically and periodically provide loss rate and long-term holding risk guidance through MTS
Strengthening Investment Requirements
· Raise basic deposit from W10 m → W30 m
· Abolish recognition of substitute securities
· Only cash of W30 m recognized as basic deposit
· Same criteria applied to both domestic and overseas single-stock leveraged products
· Abolish relaxation of basic deposit based on trading experience
Changing Trading Method
· Expand trading quantity unit from 1 share → 20 shares (tentative)
· Adjust single-stock leveraged product prices to match the level of underlying stocks
Future Schedule
· Advertising ban and suspension of new listings take effect immediately
· Discrepancy ratio management and education strengthening will be implemented sequentially starting in August
· Basic deposit of W30 m scheduled to be implemented in early August
· Deposit criteria recognizing only cash scheduled to be implemented in mid-August
· Expansion of trading quantity unit scheduled to be implemented in November
· Additional improvement measures will be reviewed if market instability persists
| 2 | Wei says he welcomes additional packaging capacity from competitors, referencing the advanced packaging solutions from Intel. TSMC meanwhile “is working very hard to shorten the gap between demand and capacity.” | 591 |
| 3 | 마지막 라인은 삼성전자 얘기 | 764 |
| 4 | “Our conviction in the AI megatrend is very strong,” CFO Huang reiterates. “The capex in the next three years will be even more significantly higher than in the past three years.”
Wei says with the additional $100 billion in Arizona, probably four more plants will be built
“One of my competitors in South Korea is making huge amounts of money and I’m jealous about it,” Wei says, eliciting laughs from the attendees at the conference. | 2 529 |
| 5 | *TSMC TO ADD ANOTHER $100 BILLION OF US INVESTMENT: US OFFICIAL
*TSMC SEES FY CAPEX $60B TO $64B, SAW $52B TO $56B
*TSMC SEES 3Q SALES $44.6B TO $45.8B, EST. $43.11B
TSMC Sees 2026 sales to grow by slightly above 40% in USD Term
Raises capex range $60b to $64b partly due to agentic AI
Co. doesn’t see bottlenecks to capacity expansion: CFO | 774 |
| 6 | Personally think the best time to re-load Semicon names is AFTER Apple's earnings release on Jul 30. News of Apple looking to source memory from CXMT was one of the first triggers for sell-off in Semis with rotation into undervalued Big Tech names since.
Profit taking from Apple on valuation burden, clear explanations on LTA from earnings calls with Hynix (Jul 29) and SEC (Jul 30) could see inflows into the Semis again in Aug. | 791 |
| 7 | * Upcoming US earnings release dates inc. Mag7.
The recent outperformance of Mag7/Big Tech names over Semiconductor - on flow rotation and 2Q earnings hopes - may continue into end-Jul with eyes on hyperscalers' earnings and capex guidance.
- Jul 16: Netflix
- Jul 22: Tesla, Alphabet
- Jul 23: Intel
- Jul 29: Microsoft, Meta, Arm
- Jul 30: Apple, Amazon, Qualcomm
- Aug 4: AMD
- Aug 26: Nvidia | 923 |
| 8 | * TSMC 2Q NET INCOME NT$706.6B, EST. NT$623.73B
* TSMC 2Q GROSS MARGIN 67.7%, EST. 67.1%
* TSMC Operating profit NT$766.6 billion, estimate NT$742.75 billion
* TSMC Operating margin 60.3%, estimate 58.6% | 1 572 |
| 9 | 디아이 spot call note | 967 |
| 10 | ★★KR Tech: D.I Corp (003160) Spot Call Takeaway - HBM/DRAM Tester Leader
We held a spot call with D.I Corp (003160, Mkt Cap W600bn, ADV W13bn), Korea's leading memory back-end Package Burn-in and Wafer Burn-in testing equipment supplier. Previously, D.I Corp was more widely known as a Co run by K-pop star Psy's father - Chairman Wonho Park, but is now a major memory equipment supplier to both SEC and SK Hynix with a quantum jump in earnings from last year. The parent company D.I mainly supplies the DRAM/NAND Package Burn-in testers to SEC, while its affiliate Digital Frontier (U/L, 67% owned by D.I) suppliers DRAM/NAND/HBM Wafer Burn-in testers to Hynix.
Co's FY25 consol-sales/OP jumped 102%/1,077% YoY to W432.3bn/W36.5bn mainly driven by Hynix bound HBM3/3e Wafer Burn-in testers, and the growth should continue in FY26 with sales/OP guidance of W500~600bn/W90~100bn - OP rising 3x due to high-margin Hynix bound HBM4 Wafer Burn-in testers and SEC/Hynix bound DDR5 DRAM/NAND Package Burn-in testers.
Shrs are down near ~50% from the previous high of ~W40k weighed by local profit taking and concerns on Hynix's HBM4 delay, but the shipment of HBM4 testers started in Mar with the bulk of sales likely to be reflected across 2Q~3Q26. Furthermore, Co is set to benefit from both SEC/Hynix's ramp up in conventional memory back-end lines in Vietnam/Korea etc. Shrs are trading at 16x FY27 P/E based on latest local broker NPe of W37.4bn. Looks like a good re-entry as investors' focus turns to undervalued memory back-end equipment names including Techwing (089030), SFA Semicon (036540) etc.
Please see attached the full spot call note including Q&As in Korean/English and IR material for more details. | 896 |
| 11 | POSCO홀딩스 (005490): 매수(유지) | TP: 500,000원(유지) : 2Q26 Preview: 다가오는 BESS의 온기 (Analyst 최문선)
• 2분기 연결 매출액은 17조 2,780억원(QoQ -3.3%, YoY -1.6%), 영업이익은 8,280억원(QoQ +17.2%, YoY +36.4%)으로 최근 1개월 컨센서스 7,132억원을 16.2% 상회할 것
o 우선 철강 부문의 이익이 중국 자회사 구조조정과 성수기 효과로 이익이 개선된 것으로 추정. 그리고 BESS 수요 증가로 리튬 원료사인 POSCO아르헨티나를 비롯해 소재사인 포스코퓨쳐엠 등은 흑자전환한 것으로 가정. 미국 AI 투자가 POSCO그룹의 2차전지 사업 실적 개선에 영향을 주기 시작한 것
• 미국 Big테크 업체들이 AI 서비스 확대를 위해 데이터센터를 투자하고, 이에 따른 전력 공급의 한 축을 BESS가 담당하면서 배터리 수요가 늘고, 결국 POSCO그룹의 2차전지 사업의 실적이 개선되는 낙수현상이 보이기 시작. 이는 투자자들이 POSCO홀딩스를 AI 투자 수혜주로 인식하게 하고, 결국 투자 심리와 valuation에 긍정적인 영향을 줄 것
o 비록 현재는 2차전지 사업이 실적에서 차지하는 비중이 미미하지만 이미 진행된 투자 덕에 향후 2차전지 사업 규모가 늘면서 전체 실적에 미치는 영향이 커짐. 현재 리튬 생산능력은 2.5만톤인데 2033년에는 17.3만톤으로 확대할 계획
• 2026년 영업이익이 3조 4,260억원으로 전년의 1조 8,270억원 대비 두 배 가까이 증가. 2분기 실적이 현실화되면서 실적 바닥이 확인될 것. 주식을 사야하는 강력한 시그널
o 여기에 그 동안 대규모 투자에도 불구하고 적자를 보이던 2차전지 사업도 턴어라운드가 가시화. 중장기 투자자라면 반드시 매수에 나서야 할 시기. 투자의견 ‘매수’와 목표주가 50만원(2026~2027년 평균 BPS에 평균 ROE 적용한 목표 PBR 0.66배 적용)을 유지
• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/mvwZYs3 | 2 045 |
| 12 | 파마리서치 (214450): 매수(유지) | TP: 470,000원(상향) : 2Q26 Preview: 반등 신호 확인 (Analyst 강은지)
• 2분기 실적은 매출액 1,655억원(+17.7% YoY, +13.3% QoQ), 영업이익 674억원(+20.6% YoY, +17.7% QoQ, OPM 40.7%)을 기록하며 매출액과 영업이익이 모두 컨센서스에 부합할 전망
o 내수 의료기기 매출액은 638억원(+5.0% YoY, +9.2% QoQ)으로 추정. 방한 외국인 관광객의 피부과 지출 금액 증가와 견조했던 내국인 수요로 QoQ 반등세를 다시 확인한 실적. 수출 의료기기 매출액은 275억원(+13.5% QoQ, +30.3% QoQ)으로 추정. 유럽향 수출 실적 호조와 기존 국가의 안정적인 수요가 큰 폭의 QoQ 성장을 이끌어냄. 향후 적극적인 유통사 전환을 통해 실적 성장을 이어갈 전망
o 내수 화장품 매출액은 192억원(+70.0% YoY, +25.3% QoQ)으로 추정. 리쥬란 브랜드 파워에 기반한 외국인 관광객 수요 증가와 약국, 피부과향 제품 판매 증가세도 이어질 전망. 수출 화장품 매출액은 323억원(+65.8% YoY, +20.3% QoQ)으로 추정. 동유럽향 일회성 매출액이 일부 포함된 실적이지만 이를 제외하더라도 미국 오프라인 매장 확대 및 동남아 온라인 채널 진입을 통한 실적 성장이 돋보이는 실적
• 투자의견 매수를 유지하고 목표주가를 47만원(12MF EPS 24,590원, Target PER 19.2배)으로 11.9% 상향. 국내외 의료기기와 화장품 사업 모두 실적 성장세가 뚜렷해지고 있기 때문. 추가로 CG USA 인수를 통해 중장기적인 화장품 사업 수익성 개선과 북미향 화장품 매출액 증가 또한 예상
o 반면 주가는 12MF PER 14.0배에 거래되며 부각되는 실적 모멘텀과 대조적인 모습. 3월 이후 외국인 관광객의 피부과 지출 금액 반등이 이어지고 있고 견조한 내국인 수요까지 더해지며 스킨부스터 시장 내 경쟁 심화에도 불구하고 견조한 실적을 유지 중인 만큼 저점 매수 전략이 유효한 시기라 판단
• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/O5uQ8hi | 695 |
| 13 | KOSPI to open muted despite resilient US close on back of softer PPI data. Eyes on retail flow as drop in SK Hynix ADR could trigger big swing in TECH. Market volume could be lighter ahead of long weekend. Eyes on if DEFENSE extends win streak amid re-escalating ME tension, and SHIPBLDG to gain amid hopes on cooperation with US.
* ECO: BOK rate decision today (consensus 25bps hike to 2.75%)
* SEC (005930): 1) is finalizing the equipment selection of its P5 phase 1 manufacturing line, signalling imminent order purchase, industry says, 2) plans to build a new DRAM plant at Giheung, Korea, targeting to begin the construction as early as 3Q26.
* SHIPBLDG: Trump said he may consider to expand cooperation with Korean co.,s as he seeks to purchase foreign-built warships, 2) JP Morgan CEO puts $24mn into submarine factory at Philly Shipyard.
* HANMI SEMI (042700) plans to build 8th chip equip plant in Incheon, Korea within 1H27 amid surging demand, chairman Kwak said.
* ELEC POWER/AI: New York city to impose a moratorium on the construction of massive AI data centers, first state in the U.S. to pause new data center construction.
* MARKET: to expand National Growth Fund to W200tn from W150tn, and establish Korea Strategic Technology Partners by the end of the year to invest in future technologies.
* SAMSUNG EPIS (0126Z0) and its US partner, Organon have extended partnership to commercialize a new biosimilar in Australia.
* NICE INFO (030190) to buyback W9bn for 1 year via trust contract (1.1% of outstanding) | 789 |
| 14 | ★★[UPDATE]KR Tech: SEC (005930) reviewing ADR listing? Quick thoughts
* SEC (005930, +6.7%) / SEC-P (005935, +7.3%) - Despite Co denying ADR listing plans, local press reports SEC's management has indeed ordered review of ADR listing and Co's finance/IR teams kickstarted preparations for US listing requirements, though it is still at early pre-examination stage.
Since initial reviews are often kept confidential from the public, the possibility of ADR listing can't be completely eliminated based solely on the official denial, hence will need to keep monitoring future board resolutions, US SEC filings etc going forward.
Note, most ADRs in the US do not carry voting rights, hence there is no reason why SEC can't just list the P-shrs in the US to help shareholder return (foreign ownership in P-shrs at 76.5% level) and remove discount to C-shrs rather than issue new shrs. Also, many group affiliate(C&T, Life, F&M)s' stakes in SEC-C will be diluted if Co issues new C-shrs for ADR. In my view, investors should push SEC's management to utilise the P-shrs as the underlying shrs for ADR.
https://www.bloter.net/news/articleView.html?idxno=668129 | 2 449 |
| 15 | 한화에어로스페이스 바닥콜
★★KR Defence: Revisit K-Defence ahead of 2H26 catalysts. Buy HW Aerospace!!
K-Defence sector hit the peak in early 2Q26 after the US/Iran war broke out, but has been weighed ever since by flow concentration on the Tech sector and lack of new order catalysts with the CPSP submarine deal going to Germany further pulling down the overall sentiment recently.
HOWEVER, we see plenty of catalysts in 2H26 in terms of new orders and earnings turnaround, and our Defence analyst Namhyun Jang sees Hanwha Aerospace (012450) as the most well prepared K-Defence name to win orders from overseas including Poland, Egypt, Australia, Spain, Saudi, US in 2H26. Earnings wise, after somewhat lacklustre 1H26 due to 2H concentrated shipment plans, Co's 2H26 earnings should rebound 51% YoY. Hanwha Aero's shrs are trading at just 19.0x/14.9x FY26/27 P/E despite YoY EPS growth of 61%/27% driven by W38.2tn order backlog. Shr px is now back down to Dec '25 level and looks OVERSOLD with RSI hovering at mid-30 level - recommend to start bottom-fishing ahead of 2H26 catalysts. Summary of today's 2Q26 preview report below. Link to Korean report https://vo.la/ViMGYZF, English version due out soon. | 881 |
| 16 | SFA반도체 +21% | 940 |
| 17 | HD한국조선해양 (009540): 매수(유지) | TP: 530,000원(유지) : 2Q26 Preview: 실적과 주가 괴리, 8% 배당수익률로 발현 (Analyst 강경태)
• 2분기 연결 매출액은 8조 7,575억원(+17.9% YoY, +7.6% QoQ), 영업이익은 1조 5,088억원(+58.2% YoY, +11.3% QoQ, OPM +17.2%)으로 추정. 매출액과 영업이익 모두 컨센서스에 부합하는 것
o 별도 매출액은 2,588억원으로 1분기에 발생한 자회사 배당수익 외 SD사업 매출만 고려했으며, 4개 사업 부문별 연결 종속회사 모두 양호한 실적을 달성. 달러대비원화 평균 환율(+36원 QoQ) 상승에 따른 연결 영업이익 증가분은 360억원으로 추정하며, 자회사 중 HD현대중공업에 집중. 2분기 HD현대삼호의 영업이익률은 19.8%로 1분기에 비해 1.2%p 상승할 것이라 추정. 수주 연도별 매출 비중이 2024년 위주로 심화(2분기 47%, +11%p QoQ)되기 때문
• HD한국조선해양의 보통주 DPS는 2026년 21,400원(+74.0% YoY), 2027년 24,000원(+12.1% YoY), 2028년 28,600원(+19.2% YoY)으로 추정. 2026년 7월 14일 종가 기준 2026년 배당수익률은 6.5%에 달하며, 2027년 7.3%, 2028년 8.7%까지 상승하게 됨
o 연결 자회사들의 경영 실적은 수주잔고에 기반해 2028년까지 안정적으로 성장할 것이며, 2027년에 발표할 3개년 주주환원정책 상 배당성향을 상향할 가능성이 큼. 중간 지주인 HD한국조선해양의 1차 투자포인트로 배당 매력도를 제시
• 매수 의견과 목표주가 530,000원을 유지. 지난 6월 한미전략투자특별법이 시행되었고, 곧 대미조선투자가 시작. HD한국조선해양을 중심으로 전개할 M.A.S.G.A 투자가 확인될 때마다 지난해 9~10월까지 나타난 주가 상승세가 재현될 것. 지금 진입해 배당수익률을 높이고, 곧 있을 모멘텀을 대비할 때
• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/ACntngI | 931 |
| 18 | 한화에어로스페이스 (012450): 매수(유지) | TP: 2,000,000원(유지) : 2Q26 Preview: 최대 고비를 지나 다시 달릴 시간 (Analyst 장남현)
• 2분기 연결 매출액은 8조 1,016억원(+28.4% YoY), 영업이익 9,562억원(+10.6% YoY, OPM 11.8%)으로 컨센서스 영업이익 1조 170억원을 6% 하회할 것
o 폴란드 천무와 이집트 K9 수출 사업의 매출이 발생했으나, 폴란드 및 호주 K9 인도는 하반기에 집중될 것. 이에 따라 2분기 지상방산 해외 매출액 비중은 전년동기대비 8.4%p 감소한 52.7%를 기록할 것. 이를 반영한 지상방산 매출액과 영업이익은 각각 1조 6,732억원(-5.6% YoY)과 3,666억원(-29.8% YoY, OPM 21.9%)으로 추정
• 실적과 수주 모두 하반기 개선될 것
o 먼저 폴란드와 이집트, 호주 사업의 매출 인식이 증가할 것. 이에 따라 하반기 지상방산 영업이익은 전년동기대비 51% 성장할 것. 수출 계약 역시 늘어날 것. 스페인 자주포 사업 수주가 예상되며, 폴란드 K9 3차 계약 논의가 진전될 전망. 또한 사우디 국가방위부 사업 협상이 재개될 것이며, 계약 규모는 10조원 이상으로 추정. 이에 더해 7월 미국 자주포 현대화 사업 우선협상자 선정이 예정되어 있으며, UAE L-SAM 수출 모멘텀 역시 연내 확대될 것
• 투자의견 매수와 목표주가 2,000,000원(2028F EPS 71,336원 WACC 7.5% 할인, 목표 PER 33.5배)을 유지. 하반기 실적과 수주 모멘텀이 확대되는 가운데, 중장기 성장 기반 역시 확보. 38.2조원의 지상방산 수주잔고가 매출 인식되면서 2025~2028년 EPS 연평균 성장률 37.7%를 기록할 것
o 이에 더해 유럽과 중동 생산 거점 확보를 위한 설비 투자 및 현지 파트너 확보가 지속. NATO와 중동 국가들의 무기체계 현지화 수요를 고려할 때, 현지 생산 거점 확보 전략이 장기적인 수주 성장으로 이어질 것
• 리포트 링크: https://vo.la/ViMGYZF | 805 |
| 19 | KOSPI to rebound further as soft US CPI eases concern on quick FED rate hike. TECH to gain (Pre: SEC +5%/SK HYNIX +8%), and retail margin calls to slow. Eyes on if DEFENCE, which has been heavily correcting since last wk on lack of fresh catalyst technically rebound.
* SEC (005930) 1) denied the news of potential offering of American depository receipt, 2) topped 2Q global smartphone m/s with 24%, overtaking Apple with 20%, Counterpoint Research, 3) to unveil new Galaxy watch on Jul 22.
* SK HYNIX (000660) 1) US ADR SKHY +27.3% as Barclays initiated coverage to Overweight w/TP $330. 2) Leveraged/Inverse ETFs tied to co's ADR was launched - SKUU, SKDD, SKHU.
* HMC (005380)'s labor union hints at stronger strike action if management remains unresponsive by July 16, while the company accelerates plans to launch its mobile robot 'MobeD' as early as 2H26 with a price tag around ₩50mn.
* CHIP: TSMC notified major customers of its plan to raise 28nm foundry process px by one-digit %p from Jan, 2027.
* MARKET: proposals to protect leveraged ETFs investors include raising minimum margin, expanding mandatory pre-investment education, and spreading rebalancing trades over the day (which skewed to near close at the moment)
* COSMETICS: 1) 1H26 exports hit a record $7bn (+27.3% YoY) led by the US ($1.4bn, +41.5% YoY), China ($1.0bn, -6.6% Yoy), and Japan ($580m, +5.9% YoY), 2) Guinness Atkinson filed for 'KBTY', Wall Street's first-ever Korean cosmetics ETF.
* NAVER (035420) invests $250mn in U.S. based crypto payment company, 'Rain' via participating series C funding round.
* HYUNDAI E&C (000720) partners with U.S. SMR developer, FANCO for next-gen nuclear power system development project, 'EAGL-1'.
* PSK HLDG (031980) wins W600bn worth of reflow chip equipment order from Taiwanese OSAT companies; +6.5% at NXT after mkt. | 782 |
| 20 | Micron Stock Jumps -- Why It Can Rise Another 90%
Summary by Bloomberg AI
Micron Technology stock closed up 4.9% at $983.12 Tuesday after dropping 4.3% on Monday amid a broad chip-sector selloff.
KeyBanc analyst John Vinh raised his target price on Micron to $1,750 from $1,600, citing persistent memory shortages and a tight memory environment through 2027.
Vinh forecasts dynamic random-access memory prices will rise 15%-20% in the third quarter and a further 15% in the fourth quarter, with NAND flash memory prices set to rise 30%-40% in the third quarter and a further 15% in the fourth quarter. | 991 |
