اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
ForeDex
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پستهای کانال
+2
🔥 The old MVRV rulebook may not read post-ETF #Bitcoin cleanly anymore. ForeDex Founder mignoletkr explains:
➡️ Since spot Bitcoin ETF approval, MVRV should no longer be used through the old framework of MVRV < 1 = undervalued and > 4 = overvalued.
🔹 A low MVRV after ETF approval may not automatically signal undervaluation, but rather the absence of meaningful ETF inflows and (OTC) institutional demand.
➡️ Previous MVRV cycle lows were 0.65 in 2015, 0.69 in 2019, and 0.78 in 2022. After MVRV first fell below 1, $BTC still declined another 54%, 48%, and 23%, taking 392, 189, and 217 days to recover above MVRV 1, so accumulating purely on a sub-1 reading still carries meaningful downside and time risk.
🔹 MVRV has not even reached 1 in the current cycle. If $BTC falls below $60,000 while institutional and large buyers fail to return, MVRV could fall below prior-cycle levels. 🚨
💡 Going forward, MVRV should be viewed more as an indicator of ETF and institutional liquidity conditions.
View Chart
| 2 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance CVD moved slightly higher from yesterday, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 100 |
| 3 |  +3#Bitcoin is walking a thin line between weak liquidity and squeeze potential. ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan takes a closer look in 🧵:
🔹 Despite several consecutive sessions of net negative #Bitcoin ETF flows, the data should not be read in isolation. Across liquidity data, exchange flows, and institutional positioning, there are still no clear signs of widespread institutional selling.
🔹 Bitcoin flows to exchanges have not increased significantly, Market Maker Outflow shows no exceptional peaks, and Whale Inflow has not shown an abnormal increase. The Market Liquidity Regime Index also remains far from the strong distribution signals seen near previous peaks.
🔹 For now, the correction looks more like temporary liquidity repositioning and profit-taking after the previous rally. [...]
🧲 Holding above $60,000 and breaking $61,300 to $63,000 would restore upward momentum. Losing and closing below $59,000 could open the way lower.
View Chart | 668 |
| 4 |  🎉 Please welcome new ForeDex Recognized Author 王怪力 with a quick #Bitcoin bottom checklist - are there any signals yet?💡
➡️ Using three indicators from ForeDex, let’s look at whether #BTC is currently forming a bottom.
➡️ Previous bottom phases generally followed a sequence where the Accumulation signal appeared, $BTC STH Supply turned upward, and Supply in Loss % turned downward.
➡️ The current structure has not confirmed that pattern yet. The Accumulation signal has not appeared, $BTC STH Supply has not turned upward, and Supply in Loss % has not turned downward. 🙏
View Chart | 179 |
| 5 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : No Change ➖
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance showed a small late fluctuation, but not enough to mark a clear directional shift. Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs also remained unchanged.
View Chart | 205 |
| 6 |  🍇 #BTC is taking losses, but the clean capitulation signal is not here yet. ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear explains:
🧸 ETF outflows remain the strongest pressure point, with $691.7M in single-day net outflows and more than $1.16B over two days. Bitcoin Exchange Netflow also returned to +7.57K $BTC, while Whale Netflow flipped positive to around +782 $BTC, adding spot-side supply pressure as more coins move back to exchanges.
🧸 ForeDex NRPL is around -$1.37B, with the market steadily realizing losses. STH NRPL sits near -$821.9M, while LTH NRPL is around -$546.9M. Loss realization is clearly increasing after $BTC broke recent lows, but the data still looks more like ongoing bleeding than a clean full-capitulation event.
🧸 Options remain defensive, with Skew/BF elevated and short-term PUT demand still strong. Until real spot absorption returns, the market remains fragile, with ETF outflows, exchange inflows, and weak active buying keeping rebounds under pressure.
View Chart | 236 |
| 7 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : Decreased 📉
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance and Bybit CVD edged slightly lower from yesterday, while Bitfinex pairs held steady.
View Chart | 219 |
| 8 |  Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (%) (MM → Exchanges)
Among #Bitcoin moving from Market Makers back to exchanges, how much is being driven by very large transfers? 🔍
⚠️ When the share of 1K+ $BTC transfers rises inside Market Maker outflows, the move deserves close attention.
Previous increases often appeared around strong volatility zones, either before deeper declines or near local stress bottoms. The current chart now shows another spike near the recent drop.
✅ From here, the price response becomes the key signal: will this spike trigger another drop, or will buyers absorb it? 👀
View Chart | 223 |
| 9 |  🌦 The leverage storm has faded, but #Bitcoin still needs real buyers. ForeDex Recognized Analyst Pelin Ay takes a closer look:
➡️ "Futures Taker Buy/Sell Ratio" is slightly positive around 0.07, showing buyers have a small edge, but not enough to signal strong FOMO. At the same time, Open Interest has fallen to around $20.5B, far below the $40B–$50B range seen in late 2025, suggesting much of the leveraged long and short positioning has already been cleared. 🧹
➡️ With futures positioning no longer showing strong sell-side pressure, the current weakness appears less driven by leverage and more by spot-side selling. Without stronger buyer demand, incoming spot supply could continue to pressure price.
⚠️ Overall, the market is in an indecisive balance. Aggressive selling pressure is not obvious in futures, but weak spot absorption keeps the risk of further downside open.
View Chart | 272 |
| 10 |  +3🎉 New Market Maker and Institutional Custody flow-distribution datasets (T2, T3) are now added:
🔸 Market Maker Inflow Value Distribution (%) (Exchanges → MM)
🔸 Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (%) (MM → Exchanges)
🔸 Market Maker Inflow Value Distribution (Exchanges → MM)
🔸 Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (MM → Exchanges)
🔹 Institutional Custody Inflow Value Distribution (%) (Exchanges → IC)
🔹 Institutional Custody Outflow Value Distribution (%) (IC → Exchanges)
🔹 Institutional Custody Inflow Value Distribution (Exchanges → IC)
🔹 Institutional Custody Outflow Value Distribution (IC → Exchanges)
🐋 Value distribution shows how much $BTC is moving in each transfer-size range and percentage distribution shows which size range leads the flow.
🐋 A move dominated by 1K+ BTC transfers carries a different market message from ones driven by smaller sizes, even if the headed direction looks similar.
✅ ForeDex now separates the flow by participant, direction, value, and size.
X Announcement | 268 |
| 11 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : Increased 📈
3. Bitfinex (USD) : Increased 📈
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : Decreased 📉
✅ Summary: Binance, Bybit, and Bitfinex USD all turned higher today, while Bitfinex USDT showed a clear decrease.
View Chart | 280 |
| 12 |  +3#Strategy is no longer the simple 2022 #BTC vehicle. ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto₿ looks inside the Strategy's funding engine 🚗:
➡️ Strategy’s 2026 structure is very different from 2022. Now, Strategy carries leverage, and financing must also cover convertible bond interest/principal and preferred-share dividends, creating theoretical liquidation risk.
➡️ Figure 1 shows institutional holdings of convertible bonds and preferred shares declining since October 2025. Figure 2 shows institutional preferred-share holdings are mainly in $STRK. Figure 4 also shows institutional demand has not recovered in the $MSTR common-share dimension.
➡️ Figure 3 shows that since the February 2026 decline, Strategy’s preferred-share financing has mainly relied on $STRC. [...]
⚠️ To get through the late bear-market phase, Strategy may need to shift from offense to defense, prioritizing dividend coverage first and $BTC purchases second. From Strategy’s perspective, institutional demand has not yet recovered.
View Chart | 303 |
| 13 |  🧸 ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear maps the cautious BTC setup ahead of core PCE:
🟣 The US Dollar Index continues to rise, adding volatility across Asian equity markets. With core PCE due tomorrow, markets are waiting to see whether rate-hike expectations strengthen or stabilize, while $BTC holds near $62K.
🟣 STH SOPR remains steady at 0.985 and STH NUPL sits around -0.14, showing short-term holder losses have eased compared with February and early June. ForeDex "Exchange Whale Netflow" data also show no major whale dumping into exchanges for now, with the current weakness looking more like low-absorption handoff pressure.
🟣 The U.S. funding environment has not improved, as ETFs recorded another -$113.8M outflow last night, marking four straight days of bleeding and leaving institutional capital in wait-and-see mode. Options data remains cautious, with 25Δ Skew still bearish and hedging demand elevated, although BBF easing suggests tail-risk expectations are starting to cool.
View Chart | 197 |
| 14 |  +2Bitcoin’s post-ETF structure changed how flows appear on-chain. ForeDex mignoletkr gives an early hint at ForeDex’s next metric:
🧩 Bitcoin’s post-ETF structure changed how large movements appear on-chain. A 10,000 $BTC transfer that once appeared as one transaction may now be split across 20–30+ transactions across exchanges, wallets, and addresses, while ETF-based demand can be settled through far fewer issuer-level transactions. (Image 1 and 2)
🧩 The same structural change also affects activity metrics. As investors shifted from direct exchange interaction to ETF-share exposure, institutional inflows could reach historic levels during the 2024–2025 bull market while Active Addresses continued to decline. (Image 3)
🧩 More than two years of Bitcoin on-chain data have now accumulated under this post-ETF structure. [...]
💡 ForeDex is developing new metrics and datasets designed to account for these structural changes.
"I look forward to sharing them soon"✨
View Chart | 249 |
| 15 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : Decreased 📉
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance and Bybit CVD moved lower again, while Bitfinex USD held its lower level from yesterday and Bitfinex USDT showed no change.
View Chart | 275 |
| 16 |  👨🏫 ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra tracks the STH Realized Price, where short-term holder pressure may soon be tested again:
🎯 Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Realized Price remains a key dynamic resistance level, currently sitting around $71,500. The level continues to move lower and is gradually approaching spot price.
View Chart | 286 |
| 17 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : Decreased 📉
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance CVD drifted slightly lower, while Bybit saw the sharper decline. Both Bitfinex pairs showed no change, with Bitfinex USD holding after yesterday’s drop.
View Chart | 295 |
| 18 |  ⚠️ The first trap has played out, but the bigger test may still be ahead. ForeDex Recognized Author 比特虎 explains 🐯:
➡️ Last week’s second probe formed a stop hunt, reducing the odds of an immediate short-term breakdown as short-side pressure was largely flushed. Bulls pushed $BTC from around $62K to $67K, before price pulled back toward the $64K area.
➡️ $BTC is now back near the $63.3K–$64K control zone, where the market continues to fight for direction. Rising weekly lows from $59,100 → $60,755 → $62,272 show dip support, while the weekly candle structure and weakening MACD histogram suggest the range may soon resolve.
📰 On the macro side, US-Iran ceasefire expectations supported last week’s rebound, but hawkish Fed guidance added pressure afterward. [...]
✅ The key level remains $63,300, with $62,200 as weekly support and $65,800 as resistance. #Bitcoin is now moving toward a larger-cycle third-probe zone near $60K, where the next test is whether bulls can absorb another bear-side push.
View Chart | 292 |
| 19 |  ForeDex Recognized Author MurphyBTC maps #Bitcoin’s three-layer setup with ForeDex API data:
🟨 Macro: Neutral / Risk-Off Dominant
🔸 Macro remains neutral, but risk-off pressure dominates. US M2 expansion and calm IV structure offer support, while sticky CPI, higher-for-longer Fed expectations, oil/geopolitical risk, weaker stablecoin supply, DeFi TVL contraction, and Extreme Fear keep the backdrop cautious.
🟩 Mid-to-long-term: Mildly Bullish
🔸 $MSTR accumulation, high LTH supply, #Bitcoin above Realized Price, neutral MVRV, low Reserve Risk, and institutional/corporate involvement support the bullish side, while public miner selling, $BTC below mining total cost, and weaker $MSTR performance remain pressure points.
⚠️ Short-term: Mixed / Downside Caution
🔸 Short-term signals remain unclear. $BTC is below the 7D and 30D MAs, 30D CVD is seller-dominant, ETF flows are weak, Coinbase premium is negative, and top traders are short-biased. [...]
View Dashboard | 211 |
| 20 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : Decreased 📉
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance continued to ease lower, and Bitfinex USD joined the downside move, while the other tracked exchanges stayed unchanged.
View Chart | 257 |
