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Дописи каналу
+3
ForeDex Recognized Author 리치나비 looks beyond the $2.7B short wipeout to the deeper reset #Bitcoin has yet to show:
📈 Recent Spot ETF inflows and strong market-maker buying, including Wintermute, clearly helped push $BTC higher, but that alone does not end the broader decline since last October.
💣 From June through August, $BTC stayed mostly sideways as neither side had enough liquidity to force a decisive move, while long-term holders showed no deeper clearing of underwater supply.
💣 The LTH/STH Supply Ratio has risen sharply since last October, which I read as older $BTC aging into long-term-holder status. ForeDex ULSR also reached only around 20–25%, well below the roughly 45% region associated with historical capitulation.
[...]
⚠️ From a weekly and monthly view, this still looks like a rebound within the broader downtrend. Without a deeper reset and stronger spot accumulation, sustained upside through the rest of 2026 remains unlikely, while deeper downside remains open.
View Chart
| 2 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance: Increased 📈
2. Bybit: No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD): No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT): No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance whale CVD increased slightly, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 74 |
| 3 |  🌶 Korean Retail Risk Sentiment 🔥
After the recent rebound. 'Korean Retail Risk Sentiment' surged rapidly to 45.6%, before cooling slight to 36%. 📈
✅ The reading remains below the 50% overheated zone, so this is not yet the kind of extreme risk-taking seen on previous peaks.
✅ But the speed of the latest increase suggests risk-taking appetite is returning quickly.🤑
View Chart | 97 |
| 4 |  +1Sellers may have won a day, but not necessarily the larger battle in spot order flow. ForeDex Recognized Author Leo Ruga takes a closer look:
👨🏫 $BTC closed yesterday with 'Spot Taker Netflow' at -$55.5M, showing aggressive sellers were more active around $79.4K. The metric measures taker buys minus taker sells, so it reflects urgency in order flow rather than total volume or exchange deposits and withdrawals.
🔸 Despite the negative daily print, the 14-day average remains positive. After spending much of the past year in persistent negative territory while $BTC fell from the highs, that pattern has now broken and the average has flipped positive.
🔸 A single negative day inside a positive average does not change the trend. Spot order flow is still supporting the current $BTC rally unless the average turns negative again. 💪
View Chart | 204 |
| 5 |  ForeDex Recognized Author WelinkBTC explains why low loss stress does not confirm a completed bottom:
🔎 As of August 25, 2026, $BTC is around $79,480 while 'Unrealized Loss Stress Ratio(ULSR)' stands at 10.96%. ULSR measures unrealized-loss depth relative to realized market value, and the current reading remains about 34 points below the ~45% historical capitulation region.
🔎 Low ULSR, however, is not confirmation that $BTC has already bottomed. It may simply mean the market has not yet seen the broad loss pressure and clearing associated with major bear-market lows. Current stress remains more localized than systemic.
🧩 The key is ULSR’s direction if $BTC weakens. A rise toward 20–30% would show spreading loss pressure, while a move near 45% would resemble historical capitulation. If $BTC stabilizes and ULSR stays low, the reset may instead occur gradually through time, turnover, and cost-basis adjustment.
View Chart | 145 |
| 6 |  The rebound has more than a squeeze behind it. ForeDex Recognized Analyst Marcelo Pravatta examines what is giving the move real support:
➡️ #Bitcoin’s recent rally was not driven by short liquidations alone. U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have returned to consistent inflows, showing that spot and institutional demand are supporting the move.
➡️ Short liquidations helped accelerate the rebound, but persistent ETF inflows make the structure healthier than a purely leverage-driven rally. ETF flows therefore remain a key indicator for whether the recovery can continue.
View Chart | 132 |
| 7 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance: No Change ➖
2. Bybit: No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD): No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT): No Change ➖
✅ Summary: No change in whale CVD across Binance, Bybit, Bitfinex USD, or Bitfinex USDT today.
View Chart | 153 |
| 8 |  📈 'Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow Total' has made a sharp upside breakout.
🌟 After a prolonged period of compressed and mixed ETF flows, netflow has pushed above the range that contained it through much of the recent cycle. 🚀
🌟 This was not a one-off positive spike. Several larger ETF inflow bars have appeared in succession, providing stronger demand support during the recent price acceleration.
🌅 Can ETF demand remain positive long enough to turn this breakout into a sustained flow regime?
We shall see how ETF flows continue to build from here... 😎
View Chart | 165 |
| 9 |  +2🚨 Mining-company selling has accelerated sharply after the latest $BTC rebound.
The latest 'Mining Company Sell-Side Flow' reading has jumped to one of the strongest levels seen in the current cycle.
📉 If the down-cycle is not over, miners may simply be taking advantage of the short-term rebound to unload BTC at higher prices.
📈 If this is the beginning of a broader uptrend, the market should be able to absorb the miner selling without losing momentum.
⚖️ Can demand absorb this wave of miner selling, or will it start to weigh on the market? 🤔
View Chart | 218 |
| 10 |  ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear tracks a key holder metric as it turns away from capitulation and toward recovery:
🍇 'Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss' typically rises above 40% near major #Bitcoin bottom zones. As the ratio falls back from its peak, it can signal a shift from capitulation toward recovery.
🍇 The latest move has pushed 'LTH Supply in Loss' down to 34.7%, marking a clear reversal from elevated stress levels. Based on this framework, $BTC has moved into the early stage of a bull-market recovery.
🧸 The historical timing models still point to several possible transition windows, while short-term volatility can remain sharp even during an improving broader trend.
View Chart | 169 |
| 11 |  ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra spots a growing supply signal appearing just as Bitcoin’s momentum starts to cool:
☑️ Bitcoin has rallied strongly in recent days, but exchange inflows are also rising, showing more $BTC is moving back onto exchanges.
☑️ This increase in exchange-side supply aligns with other technical signs that momentum may be cooling. The move remains strong, but the current setup calls for more caution near these levels.
View Chart | 160 |
| 12 |  The rally may have another test ahead before the bigger move becomes clear. ForeDex Recognized Author Paul Xue takes a closer look:
🌟 #Bitcoin’s 'STH Realized Price' is near $70K, closely aligning with the $68K–$70K bull-bear transition zone and creating a strong multi-layer support area.
🌟 $BTC is also approaching the weekly SMA50, with a possible short-term top divergence forming. A major pullback toward $70K would therefore be viewed as a potential right-side entry zone; holding that level could support a larger upside move, while a clean break below would invalidate the setup.
"In trading, don't fear drawdowns—fear missing the big trend due to fear! " 💪
View Chart | 141 |
| 13 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance: Increased 📈
2. Bybit: Decreased 📉
3. Bitfinex (USD): No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT): No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance moved slightly higher and recovered yesterday’s decline, while Bybit decreased modestly. Bitfinex USD and USDT remained unchanged.
View Chart | 156 |
| 14 |  +1📈 Aggressive buying has expanded sharply across both spot and futures markets.
🟢 Spot Taker Netflow Volume: strongest positive reading since Apr. 2025
🟢 Futures Taker Netflow Volume: strongest positive reading since Apr. 2025
The spot reading is especially important because it reflects direct buying pressure in the underlying market. Futures adds a second layer, showing aggressive derivatives flow moving in the same direction.
✅ For the first time in more than a year, both markets are showing this degree of aggressive buying at the same time.
💡 Could this be an early signal that the trend is beginning to reverse? 🚀
View Chart | 185 |
| 15 |  +1ForeDex Recognized Author Gary On-Chain looks at a market strengthening even as exchange inventory rises:
🔎 $BTC has advanced to roughly $77.4K while 'Bitcoin Exchange Reserves' climbed to 2.83M #BTC. Since the added inventory has not caused an immediate breakdown, it should not automatically be read as distribution; some may also serve as trading and settlement liquidity.
🔎 'MVRV' has risen to 1.46, above the 1.4 middle line and away from the 1.1–1.2 lower-valuation range. This points to a shift from bottom formation toward profit expansion, while remaining well below the 3.5–4.0 overheated zone.
👨🏫 Together, rising reserves, continued price strength, and MVRV only recently above 1.4 fit an expansion phase better than cycle-top exhaustion. The structure still looks far from the overheating seen at much higher historical MVRV levels.
View Chart | 224 |
| 16 |  Bitcoin has spent months beneath the same ceiling. ForeDex Recognized Author G a a h looks at what a clean break could change:
🔸 #Bitcoin’s 'Active Realized Price' is near $83K and has acted as resistance since late January 2026. $BTC has remained below this level for roughly seven months.
🔸 A sustained break above $83K would strengthen the case for a broader trend reversal, similar to the 2023 recovery. Until then, it remains a key short-term resistance level.
View Chart | 178 |
| 17 |  Korean trading volume is waking up again, ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto Dan takes a closer look:
⚡️ 'Korea Exchange Volume' is one of the clearest signals to watch in the current downtrend. Similar volume spikes have appeared only three times this cycle: near the start of the decline, during the sharp drop toward $60K, and in the recent rebound.
⚡️ The difference this time is that volume expanded with price rising, unlike the earlier bearish spikes. Given the sensitivity of Korean investors to market momentum, this volume-backed rebound is worth closer attention.
View Chart | 179 |
| 18 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance: Decreased 📉
2. Bybit: No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD): No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT): No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance whale CVD decreased again, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 195 |
| 19 |  +1🚨 'The Global BTC/Altcoin Correlation Heatmap' has flagged once again and is becoming one of the most interesting volatility markers in this cycle.
The pattern has been remarkably consistent:
1️⃣ Correlation divergence appears
2️⃣ Market structure becomes less stable
3️⃣ Larger volatility expands.
➡️ Throughout the current down-cycle, these signals have repeatedly appeared around important turning points and volatility transitions.
✅ Don't miss the next one.
Follow us on X and TG
🚨 Set alert on ForeDex
ForeDex → Profile → Alerts → Global BTC/Altcoin Correlation Heatmap ✅
View Chart | 214 |
| 20 |  Mining economics are drawing a lower line beneath #Bitcoin while macro pressure keeps the floor unsettled. ForeDex Recognized Authr The Alt. examines the setup:
✅ $BTC’s average mining production cost is near $67K, and previous major bottoms have often formed below that level. Based on that pattern, the area around $57K, roughly $10K below current production cost, is viewed as a key downside zone.
✅ Recent developments have not eased macro pressure: rates are rising again, while confidence in the dollar and U.S. Treasuries has weakened. Gold and #Bitcoin have both become more volatile.
"It is time to recognize that Bitcoin is in a bottoming phase." 👀
View Chart | 248 |
