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| Дата | Залучення підписників | Згадування | Канали | |
| 01 липня | 0 |
Дописи каналу
🌟 ForeDex Recognized Author Rei Researcher maps #Bitcoin’s current position with Ahr999 index:
🔎 The "Bitcoin Ahr999 Index" has fallen to around 0.29, approaching the historical Buy Layer. This suggests $BTC is entering a zone where selling becomes less attractive, while long-term investors may start paying attention again. 👀
🔎 In previous cycles, low Ahr999 levels often reflected deep pessimism, with the market needing time to absorb selling pressure before a new trend formed. The current signal should be viewed neutrally: the price zone is becoming more attractive for long-term accumulation, but short-term confirmation still requires stronger capital flows and a more stable price structure.
View Chart
| 2 |  +1🎉 Please welcome new ForeDex Recognized Author 리치나비, arriving with a sharp $BTC warning - $60K floor may be thinner than it looks 🚨:
"Bitcoin may be heading toward a test of the low-$50K area as July begins."
🔸 The $58K–$60K range is currently acting as short-term support, but this does not yet look like a confirmed bottoming structure. From a broader technical view, the area is being supported by the former resistance trendline broken in October 2024 and the rising trendline formed by major lows since 2025.
🔸 Retail interest in that range has kept Binance futures funding positive, briefly pushing it to 0.01% and showing that short-term buying demand is still present. However, short-term support is not the same as a confirmed trend reversal. Structural buying demand has not been clearly confirmed yet.
👨🏫 If BTC loses the $58K–$60K support zone, the current range could break into stronger downside volatility. In that case, a move toward the low-$50K area becomes a scenario to watch.
View Chart | 183 |
| 3 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : Decreased 📉
✅ Summary: CVD softened on Binance and Bitfinex USDT, while Bybit and Bitfinex USD showed no meaningful change from yesterday.
View Chart | 203 |
| 4 |  ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay looks at #Bitcoin’s rebound risk through whale selling signals, weaker institutional flow, and fading OTC support:
🐳 The "Exchange Whale Flow Indicator" calls for short-term caution. Historically, most red dots appeared after price peaks or intermediate highs, followed by accelerated declines. In the current setup, whales appear to be treating $BTC rebounds as selling opportunities.
🏦 Institutional netflow is weakening, increasing the possibility of $BTC moving back to exchanges in preparation for sales. OTC buying liquidity has also declined compared with previous periods, with buying volumes noticeably shrinking.
⚠️ Strong institutional demand is not clearly visible yet, and no strong new accumulation signal has formed. It may still be too early to say the decline has ended. Based on the combined dataset, the market remains defensive and risk-averse in the short term, with continued downside pressure still present.
View Chart | 254 |
| 5 |  #BTC lost the $63K battle, and ForeDex Recognized Author 比特虎 lays out the next weekly roadmap 🐯:
➡️ #Bitcoin lost the contested $63K area after four weeks of bull-bear tug-of-war. Last week, price closed down from 63,311 to 59,577, breaking below $60K and marking the lowest close in eight months since the 126K peak. 📉
➡️ The macro/news backdrop did not provide a clear major driver, with US-Iran tensions still unresolved. Spot ETF flows were the larger pressure point, with nearly $1.8B in weekly net outflows, the second-largest single-week outflow on record, and the seventh straight week of outflows.
🔎 Tracked ForeDex data with $BTC around 60,000: MA200 75,672, STH 69,709, TMP 76,795, RP 53,216, LTH 49,805, CVDD 46,316, and average mining cost 45,480.
✅ The next weekly resistance is 62,272, while support sits at 58,115. The market remains in wait-and-see mode until clearer direction emerges, with the 7.29 rate decision as the next major checkpoint.
View Chart | 206 |
| 6 |  +1📺 Fear is rising, but YouTube sentiment is still leaning bullish. ForeDex Founder mignoletkr takes a closer look at the divergence:
✅ The gap between the "Crypto Fear & Greed Index" and the "Crypto YouTube Narrative Index" is widening again. Even around the $60K level, the YouTube Narrative Index is not turning more bearish and continues to lean bullish, with the latest reading near 60.5.
✅ During the bear cycle since last year, similar divergences have often appeared before unfavorable market moves. 📉
"Will this time be any different?" 🔍
View Chart | 199 |
| 7 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : No Change ➖
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: The latest CVD read remained quiet overall. Binance moved slightly during the session, but the final direction stayed unchanged along with the other tracked exchanges.
View Chart | 242 |
| 8 |  ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra checks the Coinbase-Binance Spot Gap, and the signal is still not giving #Bitcoin the confirmation it needs😖:
🔸 The Coinbase Premium Gap failed to improve over the weekend and instead widened further into negative territory. The chart still shows the same structure: Binance appears to be providing more price support, while Coinbase continues to reflect weak institutional sentiment.
🔸 "The current Coinbase Premium Gap stands at -$94.16 👀"
View Chart | 265 |
| 9 |  +3✨ ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan looks at the miner data behind #Bitcoin’s volatility:
⛏️ Mining data remains one of the key areas to monitor because it often gives a different view from daily price movements.
⛏️ Although $BTC still trades below the average production cost, miners are not showing signs of mass selling or capitulation. Reserves remain stable, selling pressure is limited, and mining-company valuations are gradually improving.
⛏️ Short-term price volatility may continue, but the current structure looks more like rebuilding and accumulation than the end of a bull cycle. Mining flows and ETF flows remain important indicators for reading medium and long term market positioning.
View Chart | 252 |
| 10 |  +2🔥 The old MVRV rulebook may not read post-ETF #Bitcoin cleanly anymore. ForeDex Founder mignoletkr explains:
➡️ Since spot Bitcoin ETF approval, MVRV should no longer be used through the old framework of MVRV < 1 = undervalued and > 4 = overvalued.
🔹 A low MVRV after ETF approval may not automatically signal undervaluation, but rather the absence of meaningful ETF inflows and (OTC) institutional demand.
➡️ Previous MVRV cycle lows were 0.65 in 2015, 0.69 in 2019, and 0.78 in 2022. After MVRV first fell below 1, $BTC still declined another 54%, 48%, and 23%, taking 392, 189, and 217 days to recover above MVRV 1, so accumulating purely on a sub-1 reading still carries meaningful downside and time risk.
🔹 MVRV has not even reached 1 in the current cycle. If $BTC falls below $60,000 while institutional and large buyers fail to return, MVRV could fall below prior-cycle levels. 🚨
💡 Going forward, MVRV should be viewed more as an indicator of ETF and institutional liquidity conditions.
View Chart | 206 |
| 11 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance CVD moved slightly higher from yesterday, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 253 |
| 12 |  +3#Bitcoin is walking a thin line between weak liquidity and squeeze potential. ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan takes a closer look in 🧵:
🔹 Despite several consecutive sessions of net negative #Bitcoin ETF flows, the data should not be read in isolation. Across liquidity data, exchange flows, and institutional positioning, there are still no clear signs of widespread institutional selling.
🔹 Bitcoin flows to exchanges have not increased significantly, Market Maker Outflow shows no exceptional peaks, and Whale Inflow has not shown an abnormal increase. The Market Liquidity Regime Index also remains far from the strong distribution signals seen near previous peaks.
🔹 For now, the correction looks more like temporary liquidity repositioning and profit-taking after the previous rally. [...]
🧲 Holding above $60,000 and breaking $61,300 to $63,000 would restore upward momentum. Losing and closing below $59,000 could open the way lower.
View Chart | 812 |
| 13 |  🎉 Please welcome new ForeDex Recognized Author 王怪力 with a quick #Bitcoin bottom checklist - are there any signals yet?💡
➡️ Using three indicators from ForeDex, let’s look at whether #BTC is currently forming a bottom.
➡️ Previous bottom phases generally followed a sequence where the Accumulation signal appeared, $BTC STH Supply turned upward, and Supply in Loss % turned downward.
➡️ The current structure has not confirmed that pattern yet. The Accumulation signal has not appeared, $BTC STH Supply has not turned upward, and Supply in Loss % has not turned downward. 🙏
View Chart | 208 |
| 14 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : No Change ➖
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance showed a small late fluctuation, but not enough to mark a clear directional shift. Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs also remained unchanged.
View Chart | 244 |
| 15 |  🍇 #BTC is taking losses, but the clean capitulation signal is not here yet. ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear explains:
🧸 ETF outflows remain the strongest pressure point, with $691.7M in single-day net outflows and more than $1.16B over two days. Bitcoin Exchange Netflow also returned to +7.57K $BTC, while Whale Netflow flipped positive to around +782 $BTC, adding spot-side supply pressure as more coins move back to exchanges.
🧸 ForeDex NRPL is around -$1.37B, with the market steadily realizing losses. STH NRPL sits near -$821.9M, while LTH NRPL is around -$546.9M. Loss realization is clearly increasing after $BTC broke recent lows, but the data still looks more like ongoing bleeding than a clean full-capitulation event.
🧸 Options remain defensive, with Skew/BF elevated and short-term PUT demand still strong. Until real spot absorption returns, the market remains fragile, with ETF outflows, exchange inflows, and weak active buying keeping rebounds under pressure.
View Chart | 253 |
| 16 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : Decreased 📉
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance and Bybit CVD edged slightly lower from yesterday, while Bitfinex pairs held steady.
View Chart | 285 |
| 17 |  Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (%) (MM → Exchanges)
Among #Bitcoin moving from Market Makers back to exchanges, how much is being driven by very large transfers? 🔍
⚠️ When the share of 1K+ $BTC transfers rises inside Market Maker outflows, the move deserves close attention.
Previous increases often appeared around strong volatility zones, either before deeper declines or near local stress bottoms. The current chart now shows another spike near the recent drop.
✅ From here, the price response becomes the key signal: will this spike trigger another drop, or will buyers absorb it? 👀
View Chart | 260 |
| 18 |  🌦 The leverage storm has faded, but #Bitcoin still needs real buyers. ForeDex Recognized Analyst Pelin Ay takes a closer look:
➡️ "Futures Taker Buy/Sell Ratio" is slightly positive around 0.07, showing buyers have a small edge, but not enough to signal strong FOMO. At the same time, Open Interest has fallen to around $20.5B, far below the $40B–$50B range seen in late 2025, suggesting much of the leveraged long and short positioning has already been cleared. 🧹
➡️ With futures positioning no longer showing strong sell-side pressure, the current weakness appears less driven by leverage and more by spot-side selling. Without stronger buyer demand, incoming spot supply could continue to pressure price.
⚠️ Overall, the market is in an indecisive balance. Aggressive selling pressure is not obvious in futures, but weak spot absorption keeps the risk of further downside open.
View Chart | 302 |
| 19 |  +3🎉 New Market Maker and Institutional Custody flow-distribution datasets (T2, T3) are now added:
🔸 Market Maker Inflow Value Distribution (%) (Exchanges → MM)
🔸 Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (%) (MM → Exchanges)
🔸 Market Maker Inflow Value Distribution (Exchanges → MM)
🔸 Market Maker Outflow Value Distribution (MM → Exchanges)
🔹 Institutional Custody Inflow Value Distribution (%) (Exchanges → IC)
🔹 Institutional Custody Outflow Value Distribution (%) (IC → Exchanges)
🔹 Institutional Custody Inflow Value Distribution (Exchanges → IC)
🔹 Institutional Custody Outflow Value Distribution (IC → Exchanges)
🐋 Value distribution shows how much $BTC is moving in each transfer-size range and percentage distribution shows which size range leads the flow.
🐋 A move dominated by 1K+ BTC transfers carries a different market message from ones driven by smaller sizes, even if the headed direction looks similar.
✅ ForeDex now separates the flow by participant, direction, value, and size.
X Announcement | 314 |
| 20 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : Increased 📈
3. Bitfinex (USD) : Increased 📈
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : Decreased 📉
✅ Summary: Binance, Bybit, and Bitfinex USD all turned higher today, while Bitfinex USDT showed a clear decrease.
View Chart | 314 |
