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Channel Posts
⚠️ Short-term holders are under pressure, but the capitulation signal is not fully extreme yet. ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay explains:
🔸 Short-term investor behavior shows growing pressure in the current #Bitcoin structure. With STH Realized Price near $74K, $BTC staying below this level would mean many recent buyers are underwater.
🔸 STH SOPR is around 0.98, meaning short-term holders are realizing losses, but the level is not yet extreme compared with deeper correction phases where SOPR fell closer to 0.90 or below. Net Realized Profit/Loss is also negative, showing broader loss realization among short-term holders.
🤯 This type of loss realization can appear near bottoming areas, but confirmation is still needed. If #BTC remains below the STH Realized Price and SOPR stays under 1 for an extended period, loss-driven selling could instead create a deeper pullback.
View Chart
| 2 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : No Change ➖
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: No new directional shift appeared today, as Binance, Bybit, and both Bitfinex pairs all showed no change.
View Chart | 125 |
| 3 |  +1ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto₿ follows the market-maker signals beyond ETF and DAT demand 🧐:
⭐️ ETF inflows and DAT-related demand are easier to track, but non-ETF/DAT institutional demand goes through OTC channels and traditional crypto market makers.
⭐️ From the Market Maker Inflow perspective, the signal remains relatively negative. MM buying momentum initially followed price highs but later weakened against a new #BTC ATH, creating bearish divergence. [...]
⭐️ Market Maker Netflow gives a more constructive signal. In the latest phase, price made a new low, but MM net buying momentum did not fall to a new low. This creates a bullish divergence and suggests that non-ETF/DAT net buying demand has improved compared to February.
⭐️ The market-maker picture is therefore mixed, with MM inflow and netflow showing different divergences. The ideal setup would be for both MM buying momentum and MM net buying momentum to align with bullish signals at the same time 🧙♂️
View Chart | 257 |
| 4 |  +3#Bitcoin may be nearing a bottoming zone, but the final signal is still missing. ForeDex Recognized Author キッカ2.0 explains:
➡️ The current structure looks more like Bitcoin moving toward a major bottom than one with a confirmed final low. $BTC is down ~51% from the October ATH, while prior major bottoms formed around 52 weeks after the ATH, pointing to Oct–Nov 2026 as a possible bottoming window.
➡️ ForeDex’s on-chain and flow metrics also show a developing but unconfirmed bottoming process. MVRV has not reached clear bottom territory, SOPR still shows loss realization, NUPL remains near hope/fear, ETF outflows continue, and OTC liquidity remains depleted.
👨🏫 The main scenario allows for a rebound before another pullback, with $49K–$52K still the key zone for a potential major bottom. But this cycle has new variables, including ETFs and corporate balance-sheet #BTC, so the cleaner approach is to monitor ETF flows, OTC liquidity, MVRV, and SOPR for stronger bottom confirmation.
View Chart | 216 |
| 5 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: CVD activity rotated back to Binance, with Binance increasing while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 229 |
| 6 |  ⚖️ When miners produce at a loss, the market eventually has to rebalance. ForeDex Recognized Author Leo Ruga revisits the Mining Production Cost chart:
⛏️ $BTC is trading around $61K, below the average #Bitcoin mining production cost of $71,130, meaning miners are producing coins at roughly a 14% loss. The operational floor sits near $44,610, so miners are not at immediate shutdown levels, but profitability pressure is clearly building.
⛏️ This is a rare condition in Bitcoin’s history, where miners are underwater on newly produced coins. These periods usually do not last long, because either price recovers toward production cost or hash rate falls until the economics rebalance. Historically, similar conditions have resolved upward within 1–3 months.
"Not calling a bottom. Just pointing at the math. 📊"
View Chart | 308 |
| 7 |  🐳 ForeDex Whale Tracker gives traders a clearer read on large Bitcoin flow.
🔸 Our tracker monitors #Bitcoin transactions involving 1,000 $BTC or more and applies AI-assisted classification to reduce noise from known internal wallet transfers.
🔸 Whale Tracker webpage arranges the data into Accumulation, Distribution, and Whale Sentiment, giving users a faster way to understand the broader whale-flow balance.
🟨 Today, while $BTC is trading under pressure, whale flow is not purely distribution-heavy. Accumulation remains larger than distribution, while the overall whale sentiment is still Neutral.
✅ Follow Telegram for alerts, and check the sentiment on our website. 🐳
💬[ Telegram ]
🌐[ Whale Tracker Webpage ] | 263 |
| 8 |  +1🥁 The halving rhythm is still there, but post-ETF #Bitcoin may not need the same deep bottom signal. ForeDex Recognized Author Trader Gemini explains:
⏰ Assuming Oct. 6, 2025 was the cycle top, #BTC topped around 534 days after the halving. That timing closely aligns with the pattern seen in previous cycles.
In other words, the upside phase of this cycle still rhymed with history, even after ETF approval.✅
The question is whether the downside and bottoming phase will also follow the old cycle pattern.
🔎 This is where we check MVRV; [...] But MVRV has not yet reached the deep undervaluation zone that appeared near previous major bottoms.
🔎 Also, MVRV cycle highs have been getting lower, while MVRV cycle lows have been getting higher.
➡️ So the key question is: does post-ETF Bitcoin still need the old-cycle deep undervaluation zone, or can the market form a bottom at a higher MVRV level this time?
"For now, I see this as an observation zone, not a strong buy-dominant zone yet." 👀
View Chart | 224 |
| 9 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : No Change ➖
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : Increased 📈
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: After yesterday’s recovery, Binance stayed unchanged today. The new movement came from Bitfinex (USD), while Bybit and Bitfinex (USDT) showed no change.
View Chart | 260 |
| 10 |  Welcome to the official ForeDex Telegram channel.
We share various analyses and market insights based on ForeDex data.
🌐 Official Website
🌟 foredex.io
📌 Official ForeDex Channels
• ForeDex Global X (Twitter)
• ForeDex Proof X
• ForeDex Founder
🌍 Regional X Channels
1. ForeDex MENA X - Middle East & North Africa
2. ForeDex LATAM X - Latin America
3. ForeDex HK X - Hong Kong
4. ForeDex JP X - Japan
5. ForeDex FR X - France
6. ForeDex Africa X - Africa
7. ForeDex Vietnam X - Vietnam
8. ForeDex KR X - Korea
💬 Regional Telegram Channels
1. ForeDex KR Telegram - Korean Telegram channel
2. ForeDex Whale Tracker - Tracking $BTC moves > 1k BTC in real time | 321 |
| 11 |  +3#Bitcoin - End of the cycle or a washout before repair? A 🧵 from ForeDex Recognized Author Kaan:
✨ Bitcoin revisiting the $40K–$50K range would not automatically mean the end of the bull cycle. It could also act as a deeper market reset zone, where weak hands, leveraged positions, and lower liquidity pockets are cleared before a stronger recovery structure can form.
✨ ForeDex Spot ETF Cumulative Flow has started turning lower as $BTC moved toward the $61.9K area, suggesting institutional flow support has weakened in the short term.
✨ At the same time, the weekly structure shows a red CHoCH followed by a continued sell BoS, with the current low marked as weak and downside liquidity still concentrated below price.
🧙♂️ The $40K–$50K area stands out as a potential weekly demand / order-block zone. If price reaches that area, it could coincide with a deeper market washout: long liquidation, miner stress (cost > price), and further transfer of supply from weak hands to stronger hands.
View Chart | 770 |
| 12 |  ForeDex Recognized Author MurphyBTC maps #Bitcoin’s three-layer setup with ForeDex API:
🟨 Macro: Neutral / Risk-Off Dominant
🔸 The macro score fell from +58 on May 19 to +16, showing that risk appetite has clearly weakened. US M2 and the S&P 500 remain supportive, but sticky CPI, geopolitical tension, higher crude oil risk, declining stablecoin supply, DeFi TVL contraction, and extreme fear keep the backdrop cautious.
🥵 Medium-to-long-term: Bullish, but pressured
🔸 ForeDex data still points to accumulation: rising LTH supply, institutions/corporates involved, MSTR accumulation, low Reserve Risk, and $BTC above Realized Price. But ETF outflows, hash rate weakness, and BTC below mining cost add pressure.
⚠️ Short-term: Mixed, with bottom-alert conditions
🔸 Price is below key MAs and 30D CVD is seller-dominant. ETF outflows also remain bearish. But MM Netflow turned bullish, Fear & Greed shows Extreme Fear, and OI unwinding suggests liquidation stress near a bottom zone.
[...]
View Dashboard | 233 |
| 13 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Increased 📈
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Whale CVD improved on Binance, but Bybit and Bitfinex pairs remained unchanged.
View Chart | 253 |
| 14 |  +1The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has moved quickly into Extreme Fear🚨, while the Crypto YouTube Narrative Index is still holding near Neutral🟨.
🔸 Some tracked creators are still expressing strong bullish views, suggesting that retail narrative is not fully aligned with the fear in market sentiment data. 🔍
🔸 In other words, it implies a gap between market-level fear and retail-facing conviction, which turned out to be an important signal last time it appeared.
Will it turn out the same way this time? 👀
View Chart | 323 |
| 15 |  Bitcoin may be entering the quiet part of the cycle. ForeDex Recognized Author The Alt. breaks down the Halving Cycle roadmap 🚴♂️:
🗼 #Bitcoin is entering another “ignored” phase. Based on the simple historical pattern of bottoming roughly one year after the cycle peak, a potential bottom would fall around October 2026.
🗼 However, spot ETFs and institutional participation may prevent this cycle from following the exact same pattern, while Bitcoin’s long-term value thesis remains tied to scarcity and fiat currency debasement.
View Chart | 340 |
| 16 |  ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra revisits yesterday's rising LTH loss signal - and the pattern that followed previous #Bitcoin bottoms:
LTH Supply in Loss has reached a new cycle high at 6.94M $BTC 🔥
➡️ In previous bear markets, the LTH Supply in Loss peak appeared shortly after $BTC had already printed its bear-market bottom:
🔹 2015: LTH Supply in Loss peak 7 days after the $BTC bottom
🔹 2018: LTH Supply in Loss peak 62 days after the $BTC bottom
🔹 2022: LTH Supply in Loss peak 36 days after the $BTC bottom
"So far, the indicator is still rising.
The question is: how much higher can it go? 👀"
View Chart | 316 |
| 17 | ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra revisits yesterday's rising LTH loss signal - and the pattern that followed previous #Bitcoin bottoms:
LTH Supply in Loss has reached a new cycle high at 6.94M $BTC 🔥
➡️ In previous bear markets, the LTH Supply in Loss peak appeared shortly after $BTC had already printed its bear-market bottom:
🔹 2015: LTH Supply in Loss peak 7 days after the $BTC bottom
🔹 2018: LTH Supply in Loss peak 62 days after the $BTC bottom
🔹 2022: LTH Supply in Loss peak 36 days after the $BTC bottom
"So far, the indicator is still rising.
The question is: how much higher can it go? 👀"
View Chart | 1 |
| 18 |  +3Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸
🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only
🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M)
1. Binance : Decreased 📉
2. Bybit : No Change ➖
3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖
4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖
✅ Summary: Binance whale CVD pulled back slightly after yesterday’s recovery, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change.
View Chart | 336 |
| 19 | 🐳 ForeDex Whale Alert Launch
https://t.me/foredex_whale_alert | 336 |
| 20 |  🏖 Quick weekend update on MM Netflow from ForeDex Recognized Author AbramChart :
🧙♂️ "The Data Doesn't Lie"
➡️ Market Maker flows remain negative after the earlier $72K warning, recording the second-largest negative reading since January and resembling the pattern seen before #BTC previously broke below the $80K area.
➡️ Because this indicator tracks BTC movement between market makers and exchanges, a negative reading suggests $BTC is returning to exchanges, increasing available supply and adding sell-side pressure.
View Chart | 297 |
