ForeDex

🐳 ForeDex Whale Alert Launch https://t.me/foredex_whale_alert

🏖 Quick weekend update on MM Netflow from ForeDex Recognized Author AbramChart : 🧙‍♂️ "The Data Doesn't Lie" ➡️ Market Maker flows remain negative after the earlier $72K warning, recording the second-largest negative reading since January and resembling the pattern seen before #BTC previously broke below the $80K area. ➡️ Because this indicator tracks BTC movement between market makers and exchanges, a negative reading suggests $BTC is returning to exchanges, increasing available supply and adding sell-side pressure. View Chart

ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra highlights a new ATH in #Bitcoin - but not the kind bulls want to celebrate 🤯: 🔸 Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss has reached 6.83M $BTC, the highest level since the 2022 bear market, showing that a large share of long-term holders are now underwater. "A remarkable reading - and one that deserves attention 👀" View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Increased 📈 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance showed a small recovery in whale CVD, while Bybit, Bitfinex USD, and Bitfinex USDT stayed unchanged. View Chart

ForeDex Founder mignoletkr has been warning about cracks beneath the market - now he breaks down what this $BTC drop revealed 🚨: ✅ #Bitcoin is still barely holding the $60K area, while the liquidity flows continue to weaken. If major players were quietly accumulating behind the scenes while the market deteriorated, the data should show stronger absorption. That signal is still missing. ✅ The issue is the gap between weak liquidity and market confidence. Many still say Bitcoin has fallen enough and fear is opportunity. But real fear removes confidence; people hesitate to call bottoms. Instead, many still lean on past-cycle logic, making the setup fragile.🥶 [...] 💡 The concern is that many bottom calls rely on the same datasets that missed the previous top. If those frameworks failed there, they need adjustment before being trusted here. 💡 When many use the same tools and reach the same conclusion, the market can still create extreme volatility before moving where most expect. 🏈 View Chart

🚨ForeDex Recognized Author Simplspark warns Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may need to be read with interest rates: ⚡️ In past cycles, major bottoms often appeared when many long-term holders moved into loss. The current LTH profit structure is approaching a zone historically linked to late-cycle accumulation. ⚡️ However, chart 2 shows LTH unrealized profit/loss has not yet reached the average loss territory seen at similar points in past cycles. If price weakens further short term, some profit-taking pressure may remain. ⚡️ The key variable is interest rates. If the broader long-term rate cycle is shifting, Bitcoin’s usual 4-year cycle may not resolve with the same strong upside pattern seen before. ✅ This setup is not simply “cycle bottom equals aggressive accumulation.” The bigger question is whether Bitcoin’s historical 4-year cycle can still dominate under a different macro-rate regime, or whether this cycle develops into a slower multi-cycle decay structure instead of an explosive upside phase. View Chart

ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear checks if #Bitcoin’s extreme fear has reached capitulation - or still has room to go: 🧸 $BTC approached $61K as memory stocks like SK and Samsung led the broader risk-off move, while $ZEC’s flash crash added pressure. The Fear and Greed Index entered extreme fear, making this more of a broad sentiment shock than a BTC-only move. 🧸 ForeDex STH SOPR fell below 1, showing short-term holders are realizing losses. But STH NRPL is around -$1B, below February’s near -$4B realized-loss peak, meaning weak price action has not yet reached February-level capitulation on-chain. 🧸 Options remain defensive, with short-term put premiums elevated, but Skew/BF has not expanded further vs yesterday. ETFs saw a small $3.2M net inflow, while liquidation and funding data show short chasing, with clusters around $64.8K–$68K. Key things to watch: 🟣 If $BTC breaks February’s low, does STH NRPL deepen or ease? 🟣 Can ETF flows stay positive? 🟣 Has options Skew/BF fear cooled? View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Decreased 📉 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance continued to show lower whale CVD, while Bybit, Bitfinex (USD), and Bitfinex (USDT) held with no change. View Chart

⚠️ The Global BTC/Altcoin Correlation Heatmap proven useful once again. ❗️ When #Bitcoin and altcoins stop moving together, the market often enters more volatile phase. Those divergence signals have repeatedly appeared near important volatility zones in this cycle. 💣 ForeDex highlighted the latest signal on May 10. Since then, $BTC has stayed in a downtrend. ✅ Right now, the key point is that a new signal has not appeared yet. Until another correlation divergence signal appears, the current trend may continue. 🚨 Set Alert for the next signal. ForeDex → Profile → Alerts → Global BTC/Altcoin Correlation Heatmap ✅ View Chart

#Bitcoin made a new low, but the bigger players are not selling like February. ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto₿ breaks it down: ⭐️ Yesterday’s $BTC drop to a new correction low showed broad market selling pressure, and market maker exchange inflows provided additional context for estimating institutional selling pressure in the post-ETF market. ⭐️ ForeDex data shows that, during this decline, $BTC inflows from market makers/institutions were far smaller than during February’s decline. ⭐️ Exchange Whale Inflow also remained much lower than February levels, suggesting that selling pressure from larger players has weakened significantly. ✅ Institutional buying momentum through OTC indicators still matters, but it may be a later confirmation signal. For now, the key is whether selling pressure continues to fade and whether reluctance to sell becomes clearer after the latest Asian-session low. 🧐 View Chart

💧 Price is moving, but liquidity is the real story. ForeDex Recognized Author キッカ2.0 breaks down the #Bitcoin setup: ➡️ The bigger concern is not the $BTC drop itself, but fading buy-side liquidity. ForeDex OTC Buy-Side Liquidity Flow has fallen from around 18K in mid-May to around 7.7K, while Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow Total showed about $2.3B in May outflows, pointing to weaker major buy-side support. ➡️ Weak buy-side liquidity, combined with large Bitcoin Spot ETF and Bitcoin Exchange Whale outflows, suggests the drop is more liquidity-driven than ordinary selling. ➡️ The key variable now is not just price, but whether OTC buy-side liquidity begins to recover. Until larger capital returns, the market may remain vulnerable to range-bound movement and possible lower-low attempts. "Until big money returns, I'm viewing this as a phase where we should stay cautious about range-bound trading probing for lower lows." ☀️ View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Decreased 📉 2. Bybit : Decreased 📉 3. Bitfinex (USD) : Decreased 📉 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Whale CVD weakened across Binance, Bybit, and Bitfinex (USD) as $BTC moved lower. Bitfinex (USDT) remains unchanged from the previous snapshot. View Chart

🐳 ForeDex Whale Alert Launch - Monitoring the Next Mt. Gox Wallet Move: 🔸116 $BTC has moved to exchanges. 🔸10,306 $BTC remains unmoved. The exchange-bound 116 $BTC is directly related to repayment activity, while the larger unmoved wallet remains as the key balance to monitor.🔍 ✅ ForeDex has opened ForeDex Whale Alert to help users track these types of transactions. ForeDex Whale Alert tracks Bitcoin transactions involving 1,000 $BTC or more and uses an AI-assisted classification system to filter out known internal wallet transfers. The market has seen 116 $BTC move to exchanges. 🚨 Now focus is on the remaining 10,306 $BTC. Follow its next move on ForeDex Whale Alert. 🐳 TG : [https://t.me/foredex_whale_alert] URL : [https://foredex.io/tracker]

🥵 #Bitcoin is facing pressure from both market makers and whales. ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay takes a closer look 👀: 🔸 Market Maker Netflow is in negative territory while #BTC trades around $69.06K, suggesting market makers are moving $BTC toward exchanges. This points to continued exchange-side pressure from liquidity providers. 🔸 Bitcoin Exchange Whale Netflow is also positive around 3,362.9, suggesting large investors are transferring $BTC to exchanges as well. These deposits can be linked to profit-taking or the use of $BTC as collateral in derivatives markets. 🔸 When both market makers and whales are sending #BTC toward exchanges, upside movement can remain suppressed and short-term price action may become sharper. The current structure suggests active sell-side pressure from both groups. View Chart

🎉 Please welcome new ForeDex Recognized Author 比特虎 with a broader market map for #Bitcoin as selling pressure starts coming from multiple sides: 🐯 #BTC dropped sharply, challenging the earlier bullish view that the market was still preparing for a move toward the $90K–$100K range. Concerns are also growing around selling pressure from Strategy, Mt. Gox, and Tether. 🐯 ETF net outflows are now approaching a new historical record, as funding flipped back positive after the previous negative-funding setup failed to support the market. ForeDex data adds deeper structural context, with Long-Term Holder cost basis near $48K and miners’ average cost around $45K. ✅ The key question now is whether selling pressure continues, ETF outflows expand further, and $BTC moves toward the $66.5K area. View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Decreased 📉 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance showed a steeper negative move in whale CVD today, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs held steady. View Chart

Update on the Crypto YouTube Narrative Index 📝 On May 18, $BTC was around $76K and all of the tracked creators were bullish.🤩 📉 Price has since moved in the opposite direction once again. This is why the index is useful: not because YouTubers “predict” price, but because it shows when weekly #Bitcoin sentiment becomes too one-sided.📺 ✅ Now the index has cooled back toward Neutral. ✅ The index is intended to track when #BTC commentary becomes crowded and how the market responds afterwards, without targeting individual creators or treating every bullish view as wrong. 🫂 View Chart

ForeDex Recognized Author Zizcrypto begins with Mining Production Cost, showing #Bitcoin is not at miner capitulation yet, but the buffer is getting thinner🥶: ⚡️ $BTC is trading near $69K, while the Mining Production Cost is around $46.4K, leaving an approximate 49% premium and a ~$22.6K buffer above lower-bound operating costs. ⚡️ While miners are not yet in capitulation zone, profitability buffer has compressed sharply as #BTC weakens. ⚡️ The key risk is not immediate miner distress, but that continued downside could push the market closer to cost levels where miner behavior becomes more sensitive.⛏️ View Chart

ForeDex Founder mignolet connects two warnings into one message - without real buyer absorption, fear can stay heavy 😱: ➡️ The current market psychology still looks similar to what we saw near last year’s market top and during the $80K–$90K range earlier this year. ➡️ The difference now is that $BTC has already declined significantly and spent time consolidating, which is leading many participants to believe this must be a “buy the fear” opportunity. But fear only becomes opportunity when real buyers step in to absorb selling pressure. ➡️ That is where the current flow data remains concerning. 🔸 (Chart 1) The market-maker selling pattern warned about on May 22 is now developing in a way that looks similar to January. 🔸 (Chart 2) Around 6,700 BTC was transferred from market-maker wallets to exchanges yesterday. "If OTC buying liquidity and institutional buying demand do not return, I believe this selling pressure will only continue to intensify."🥵 View Chart

ForeDex Recognized Author JunDoJun opens his first article📝 with a closer look at BTC’s liquidity absorption, institutional flow, and Strategy’s latest move: [...] 🟦 In the previous blue periods, exchange reserves and institutional custody outflows increased, but $BTC only moved sideways or lower. This suggested institutional supply was entering the market, but demand was strong enough to absorb it, and those phases were later followed by stronger price rallies. 🟥 The red period was different. Institutional custody outflows increased while exchange reserves declined, pointing to liquidity stress and weakening buy pressure rather than healthy absorption, which later created stronger downside pressure. 🟪 The recent purple zone also appears to have two stages. 🔸 During the $69K → $75K move, institutions seemed to release some supply, but stronger market demand absorbed it. 🔸 During the $75K → $70K move, institutions appeared to resume buying [...] , Read More View Chart