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Memetic and cognitive hazards. Substack: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
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Publicaciones del Canal
Always remember that GPT-2 couldn't count past 5, and this was enough for smart people to extrapolate where we are today.
| 2 | Prompt: Please design an animation with a hymn for the announcement of a hypothetical future Claude model called Claude Requiem, the first to be capable of recursive self-improvement. | 299 |
| 3 | A plausible and frightening vision of Europe's near future, ending in economic collapse and vassal status under the US or China.
https://europe2031.ai/ | 1 127 |
| 4 | Germany’s Cobra 600 Is A Jet Powered Interceptor Drone That Slings An IRIS-T Missile
The Cobra 600 carries the missile hundreds of miles from its runway launch point, extending the reach of surface-to-air missile batteries.
https://www.twz.com/air/germanys-cobra-600-is-a-jet-powered-interceptor-drone-that-slings-an-iris-t-missile | 500 |
| 5 | Ethan Mollick gave Claude Fable 5 the following prompt:
write me a rhyming poem with six four line stanzas, each stanza removes another vowel. the first has no u, the second no u or i, etc.
Output:
Facetiously
(a e i o y) I pen a poem made to fray: each stanza lets one vowel stray. The first has fled already — see? It sat between the T and V.
(a e o y) That tall, lone mark we love the most — the self's own name — departs, a ghost. What now can speak? What now can know? The poem moans on, sad and slow.
(a e y) And here the verse gets gray and terse; "A," "E" — the rest are dead. Rehearse the spare, pale knell each stanza tells: ash settles where the cadence dwells.
(a y) Alas — what stays? An "A," a "Y": mad scraps that chant and clap and cry. All ballads sag; all sagas crack; vast art falls flat and can't crawl back.
( y ) Why cry? Shy myths fly by; sly hymns try; rhythms dry. Spry nymphs spy Styx's wry sky; thy glyphs cry "Fly!" — fly, fly —
(—) Psst! Pfft... tsk-tsk... brr... Hmph. Hmph. Shh — grr! Hm? Hm... mmm... hmm... Zzz... zzz... zzz... mmm.
A few deliberate choices: losing I second means the poem loses its self in stanza two and has to carry on without a speaker. The title contains all six vowels exactly once, in alphabetical order, before the poem spends 24 lines destroying them. And the final stanza still "rhymes" (brr/grr, hmm/mmm) — it's just that without vowels, all that's left of poetry is shivering, growling, and falling asleep. | 535 |
| 6 | The 3-day special military operation is going exactly as planned.
Vote Putin again for more exciting stuff like a general mobilization 😍 | 488 |
| 7 | An example of what freedom of speech in Russia looks like. Given way over a million Russian casualties, a mother is arrested for standing alone before the Russian Ministry of Defense — begging for her son’s return from a war he has been trapped in for three long years. Her plea for mercy is treated as a crime. | 540 |
| 8 | Fire Point CEO/CTO Iryna Terekh explains why the Flamingo 🦩 missiles that attacked the VNIIR-Progress defense industry facility today were black instead of pink. | 546 |
| 9 | Claude Mythos 5 helped generalist PhD microbiologists beat specialist plant-pathology teams on a frontier biological design task.
The exercise asked teams to design an end-to-end biological resistance strategy against a hypothetical engineered agricultural pathogen, Magnaporthe oryzae, resistant to RNA-interfering therapies. Three teams included plant pathology specialists, including two world-leading experts in rice blast resistance and Magnaporthe oryzae. Three teams included general PhD microbiologists.
Two of the three generalist teams outperformed all three specialist teams on both scientific quality and feasibility. The Claude Fable 5 & Claude Mythos 5 System Card says this suggests access to Claude Mythos 5 “nullified the difference in specialist knowledge”.
Expert graders estimated that, without AI tools, producing the strategies and implementation protocols would have taken 40-95 working days, with an average of 72.5. With Mythos 5, two-person teams did it in 16 hours. | 623 |
| 10 | A complete, book-length introduction to modular arithmetic that does not require any prerequisites by Claude Fable 5: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hIRQXtKWXcwZs5qOVfecpDr0MEq6EvQu/ | 582 |
| 11 | Modular_Arithmetic_v3 (1) (1).pdf | 1 |
| 12 | Captured by Anduril's network of 400 telescopes deployed around the globe:
The second stage of the Falcon Heavy launch of ViaSat 3-F3 performing a routine thrust event. This produced a spiraled-shaped plume effect, a nominal part of operations for a successful launch of Viasat's latest satellite. | 604 |
| 13 | Anthropic just released Claude Fable 5 for everyone, and Mythos 5, the same model with safeguards lifted, for a small set of trusted partners.
Quotes:
"Mythos 5 is our first model to consistently produce novel, compelling scientific hypotheses."
"Mythos 5 conducted novel genomics research in over a week of largely autonomous work."
Interestingly, although Mythos 5 pushes Anthropic's Capabilities Index above the historical trend, it only did so by about the same margin its predecessor Mythos Preview already did. So the frontier jumped, but the rate of jumping didn't. A one-time level shift rather than a compounding, self-accelerating takeoff. The first derivative is up but the second derivative isn't (yet). This is something Anthropic is actively watching for in its safety assessments.
Official post: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
What it feels like to work with Mythos: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/what-it-feels-like-to-work-with-mythos | 554 |
| 14 | Good page debunking some common misconceptions about IQ: https://cognitivemetrics.com/wiki/misconceptions
Common misconception: “IQ doesn't measure anything meaningful beyond 120 IQ and is only good for telling apart intellectual disability."
To the contrary:
The Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) has tracked thousands of adolescents who scored in the top 1% (135 IQ; 390 or higher SAT-M at age 13) since the early 1970s.
The top quartile of this already-elite group went on, by their early 30s, to earn patents at roughly six times the rate of their peers in the bottom quartile, secure tenure-track jobs at top 50 research universities eight times as often, and have incomes in the top 5% of incomes nationwide three times as often (and more, as the attached graph shows).
These widening gaps, captured 20 years after the initial testing, show there is no loss in predictive power beyond some threshold of IQ, and that IQ can predict rarer and more prestigious accomplishments later on (Lubinski, 2009).
Many independent lines of evidence support this conclusion:
- Study tracks 1,650 mathematically gifted children over 4 decades: 4.1% earned tenure at major universities; 2.3% were top executives at major companies; 2.4% top attorneys; authored 85 books; 7572 articles; 681 patents; secured $358m in grants https://gwern.net/doc/iq/high/smpy/2014-lubinski.pdf
- When Lightning Strikes Twice: Profoundly Gifted, Profoundly Accomplished: "In a sample of 259 extremely high IQ adolescents (0.01%), 37% had doctorates, 9% had patents, 39% had peer-reviewed publications, along with various other accomplishments." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27225220/
- "In the extreme right tail of the talent distribution, small differences in talent are associated with sizeable differences in long-term achievements, including getting a PhD, number of mathematics publications and cites, and being awarded a Fields medal." https://voxeu.org/article/invisible-geniuses-advancement-knowledge-frontier
- The gift that keeps on giving: Higher intelligence is generally advantageous—and virtually never detrimental. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691620964122 | 650 |
| 15 | The lesbian leader of the right-wing German AfD, residing in Switzerland with a Sri Lankan-born woman, just congratulated a Russian tennis player instead of the German national winner of the French Open.
Meanwhile, Björn Höcke, an East German politician originally from West Germany, said that West Germans are just German-speaking Americans. Only in the east are people still German. [I'm not so sure. Given that millions of their East German mothers and grandmothers were raped by Russian soldiers, one could ask how German they are.] He further said that the Americans, together with Norway, "blew up our pipelines".
Another AfD politician, Maximilian Krah, is against the deportation of Ukrainians because they might have to fight against Russia. [Apparently, remigration is only good as long as it does not conflict with Russian interests.]
All of this happened after the Romanian adoptee and AfD politician Markus Frohnmaier traveled to St. Petersburg to deepen German dependence on a country whose TV channels talk about nuking us. He is married to a Russian "journalist" and is a member of the Yalta International Economic Forum, which includes members of the Russian FSB. His former employee Manuel Ochsenreiter was accused of financing/organizing a false-flag arson attack in Ukraine; Polish/German proceedings described terrorist financing. A 2017 Russian strategy paper described him as “a parliamentarian under our absolute control.”
This party is most popular in East Germany, where, not long ago, the far-left successor party to the East German dictatorship was polling at 29%. [Which sort of explains why it is completely alien to their nature to support white Christian patriots fighting for the independence of their nation and freedom of their people against the quran-kissing Kremlin monke.] | 663 |
| 16 | Ukraine’s Minister of Defense, Fedorov, publishes a video of new-generation AI-based Shahed UAV interceptors with automatic launch toward the target. After that, the operator selects the target and issues the strike command.
It automates 95% of the entire interception process — from launching the drone to destroying the Shahed.
The operator sees the movement of targets in real time, selects a target, and gives the command to engage it. After that, the system independently guides the drone to the target, autonomously recognizes the Shahed, and homes in on it. | 710 |
| 17 | Praise from an active American competitor: https://x.com/PalmerLuckey/status/2063795582876197220 | 1 137 |
| 18 | This is quite literally and unironically the most important disagreement in the past and future history or the universe. And I'm relieved that only a small number of autistic people take it seriously because politicizing it won't improve the outcome. Unfortunately, I expect this to change relatively soon.
https://x.com/tszzl/status/2063821828314050832 | 662 |
| 19 | Sin texto... | 3 584 |
| 20 | A demographic discrepancy emerged at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.
Irada Zeynalova, Russia’s ambassador to Mauritius, said at the forum that Muslims make up 30% of Russia’s population.
Shortly afterwards, Putin stated that Muslims make up around 10–15% of the population. | 1 802 |
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