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Memetic and cognitive hazards. Substack: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
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Посты канала
Russian asset Tulsi Gabbard released a map of bioweapons labs in Ukraine that has Kyiv right next to Moldova.
https://www.dni.gov/files/BIOLAB_Slides.pdf
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
| 2 | Claude Fable 5 scores 88% on Tier 4 of the FrontierMath benchmark. It consists of research-level mathematics problems intended to be hard even for professional mathematicians in the relevant field.
More: https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/tiers-1-4 | 284 |
| 3 | From Scott Alexander's post on timelines today. His AGI numbers (which he defines as AI intelligent enough to do 90% of knowledge work jobs) are:
- 25% by 2027
- 50% by 2034
- 75% by 2045.
Also:
I think there’s a 66% chance that actually, the singularity is intimately related to the universe being a simulation, and that at least some of the events above could be better predicted by knowing what the simulators are thinking than by normal forecasting.
Read more: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/my-ai-opinions | 393 |
| 4 | A landmark achievement in microscopy is poised to reveal the molecular machinery of life inside cells, at near-atomic detail: https://biohub.org/blog/laser-phase-plate-cryo-em-making-invisible-visible/
Together with UC Berkeley we are announcing the laser phase plate - a breakthrough in atomic resolution imaging. This is the brightest continuous wave laser in the world, 100 million times the intensity of the surface of the sun.
Phase contrast plays an important role in microscopy, but it was thought close to impossible for electron microscopy, where it would require interfering with an electron beam. Holger Mueller and Robert Glaeser proposed exactly this using a standing wave laser. It has taken over 15 years to make this a reality. Biohub partnered with UC Berkeley and Mueller to support this work and to engineer and build the technology.
Contrast has been the critical barrier to achieving atomic resolution imaging of the cell. In cryo-electron tomography, a cellular imaging technology that uses electron microscopy, the low contrast makes it impossible to resolve anything but the largest proteins within their cellular context. The laser phase plate removes that barrier.
With advances in AI this breakthrough in contrast will start to open up a new frontier in structural biology, that will allow us to see the molecular machines of the cell, and how they assemble into far more complex and dynamic systems, and understand how they work. | 408 |
| 5 | Yeah, I just saw this: https://simonwillison.net/2026/Jun/11/fable-is-relentlessly-proactive/
LLMs are getting into spooky territory. | 423 |
| 6 |  I asked Claude Fable 5 to explain intransitive dice to a lay audience. | 451 |
| 7 | Always remember that GPT-2 couldn't count past 5, and this was enough for smart people to extrapolate where we are today. | 522 |
| 8 |  Prompt: Please design an animation with a hymn for the announcement of a hypothetical future Claude model called Claude Requiem, the first to be capable of recursive self-improvement. | 584 |
| 9 | A plausible and frightening vision of Europe's near future, ending in economic collapse and vassal status under the US or China.
https://europe2031.ai/ | 1 957 |
| 10 | Germany’s Cobra 600 Is A Jet Powered Interceptor Drone That Slings An IRIS-T Missile
The Cobra 600 carries the missile hundreds of miles from its runway launch point, extending the reach of surface-to-air missile batteries.
https://www.twz.com/air/germanys-cobra-600-is-a-jet-powered-interceptor-drone-that-slings-an-iris-t-missile | 608 |
| 11 | Ethan Mollick gave Claude Fable 5 the following prompt:
write me a rhyming poem with six four line stanzas, each stanza removes another vowel. the first has no u, the second no u or i, etc.
Output:
Facetiously
(a e i o y) I pen a poem made to fray: each stanza lets one vowel stray. The first has fled already — see? It sat between the T and V.
(a e o y) That tall, lone mark we love the most — the self's own name — departs, a ghost. What now can speak? What now can know? The poem moans on, sad and slow.
(a e y) And here the verse gets gray and terse; "A," "E" — the rest are dead. Rehearse the spare, pale knell each stanza tells: ash settles where the cadence dwells.
(a y) Alas — what stays? An "A," a "Y": mad scraps that chant and clap and cry. All ballads sag; all sagas crack; vast art falls flat and can't crawl back.
( y ) Why cry? Shy myths fly by; sly hymns try; rhythms dry. Spry nymphs spy Styx's wry sky; thy glyphs cry "Fly!" — fly, fly —
(—) Psst! Pfft... tsk-tsk... brr... Hmph. Hmph. Shh — grr! Hm? Hm... mmm... hmm... Zzz... zzz... zzz... mmm.
A few deliberate choices: losing I second means the poem loses its self in stanza two and has to carry on without a speaker. The title contains all six vowels exactly once, in alphabetical order, before the poem spends 24 lines destroying them. And the final stanza still "rhymes" (brr/grr, hmm/mmm) — it's just that without vowels, all that's left of poetry is shivering, growling, and falling asleep. | 623 |
| 12 |  +3The 3-day special military operation is going exactly as planned.
Vote Putin again for more exciting stuff like a general mobilization 😍 | 546 |
| 13 |  An example of what freedom of speech in Russia looks like. Given way over a million Russian casualties, a mother is arrested for standing alone before the Russian Ministry of Defense — begging for her son’s return from a war he has been trapped in for three long years. Her plea for mercy is treated as a crime. | 596 |
| 14 |  Fire Point CEO/CTO Iryna Terekh explains why the Flamingo 🦩 missiles that attacked the VNIIR-Progress defense industry facility today were black instead of pink. | 593 |
| 15 |  Claude Mythos 5 helped generalist PhD microbiologists beat specialist plant-pathology teams on a frontier biological design task.
The exercise asked teams to design an end-to-end biological resistance strategy against a hypothetical engineered agricultural pathogen, Magnaporthe oryzae, resistant to RNA-interfering therapies. Three teams included plant pathology specialists, including two world-leading experts in rice blast resistance and Magnaporthe oryzae. Three teams included general PhD microbiologists.
Two of the three generalist teams outperformed all three specialist teams on both scientific quality and feasibility. The Claude Fable 5 & Claude Mythos 5 System Card says this suggests access to Claude Mythos 5 “nullified the difference in specialist knowledge”.
Expert graders estimated that, without AI tools, producing the strategies and implementation protocols would have taken 40-95 working days, with an average of 72.5. With Mythos 5, two-person teams did it in 16 hours. | 673 |
| 16 | A complete, book-length introduction to modular arithmetic that does not require any prerequisites by Claude Fable 5: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1hIRQXtKWXcwZs5qOVfecpDr0MEq6EvQu/ | 616 |
| 17 | Modular_Arithmetic_v3 (1) (1).pdf | 1 |
| 18 |  Captured by Anduril's network of 400 telescopes deployed around the globe:
The second stage of the Falcon Heavy launch of ViaSat 3-F3 performing a routine thrust event. This produced a spiraled-shaped plume effect, a nominal part of operations for a successful launch of Viasat's latest satellite. | 638 |
| 19 | Anthropic just released Claude Fable 5 for everyone, and Mythos 5, the same model with safeguards lifted, for a small set of trusted partners.
Quotes:
"Mythos 5 is our first model to consistently produce novel, compelling scientific hypotheses."
"Mythos 5 conducted novel genomics research in over a week of largely autonomous work."
Interestingly, although Mythos 5 pushes Anthropic's Capabilities Index above the historical trend, it only did so by about the same margin its predecessor Mythos Preview already did. So the frontier jumped, but the rate of jumping didn't. A one-time level shift rather than a compounding, self-accelerating takeoff. The first derivative is up but the second derivative isn't (yet). This is something Anthropic is actively watching for in its safety assessments.
Official post: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-fable-5-mythos-5
What it feels like to work with Mythos: https://www.oneusefulthing.org/p/what-it-feels-like-to-work-with-mythos | 593 |
| 20 | Good page debunking some common misconceptions about IQ: https://cognitivemetrics.com/wiki/misconceptions
Common misconception: “IQ doesn't measure anything meaningful beyond 120 IQ and is only good for telling apart intellectual disability."
To the contrary:
The Study of Mathematically Precocious Youth (SMPY) has tracked thousands of adolescents who scored in the top 1% (135 IQ; 390 or higher SAT-M at age 13) since the early 1970s.
The top quartile of this already-elite group went on, by their early 30s, to earn patents at roughly six times the rate of their peers in the bottom quartile, secure tenure-track jobs at top 50 research universities eight times as often, and have incomes in the top 5% of incomes nationwide three times as often (and more, as the attached graph shows).
These widening gaps, captured 20 years after the initial testing, show there is no loss in predictive power beyond some threshold of IQ, and that IQ can predict rarer and more prestigious accomplishments later on (Lubinski, 2009).
Many independent lines of evidence support this conclusion:
- Study tracks 1,650 mathematically gifted children over 4 decades: 4.1% earned tenure at major universities; 2.3% were top executives at major companies; 2.4% top attorneys; authored 85 books; 7572 articles; 681 patents; secured $358m in grants https://gwern.net/doc/iq/high/smpy/2014-lubinski.pdf
- When Lightning Strikes Twice: Profoundly Gifted, Profoundly Accomplished: "In a sample of 259 extremely high IQ adolescents (0.01%), 37% had doctorates, 9% had patents, 39% had peer-reviewed publications, along with various other accomplishments." https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/27225220/
- "In the extreme right tail of the talent distribution, small differences in talent are associated with sizeable differences in long-term achievements, including getting a PhD, number of mathematics publications and cites, and being awarded a Fields medal." https://voxeu.org/article/invisible-geniuses-advancement-knowledge-frontier
- The gift that keeps on giving: Higher intelligence is generally advantageous—and virtually never detrimental. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1745691620964122 | 695 |
