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Axis of Ordinary
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Memetic and cognitive hazards. Substack: https://axisofordinary.substack.com/
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Kanal postlari
Anyone paying attention had already factored in the significant probability of Fable-level models by 2020. Further progress is now much more likely than it was back then.
| 2 |  A global workspace in language models (here called J-space):
Similar to how humans can think about one thing while doing another, Claude can activate concepts and computations in its J-space that are unrelated to its outputs.
For most things, Claude actually doesn’t need its J-space. If we delete the J-space, Claude still speaks fluently, recalls facts, and classifies text—but becomes bad at some tasks like multi-step reasoning. It’s similar to deliberate vs. automatic processing in human cognition.
Video summary: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rKV5JcALQoQ
Paper: https://transformer-circuits.pub/2026/workspace/index.html
Commentary by experts in neuroscience, philosophy, and interpretability: https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/files/4zrzovbb/website/cc4be2488d65e54a6ed06492f8968398ddc18ebe.pdf | 377 |
| 3 |  Number of 40°C days recorded across France’s main weather station network over the past 75 years. | 517 |
| 4 |  Filmed on July 13, 1929. 87 year old farmer in garden describes work versus play, describes changes that have occurred, and describes travel by automobile versus stagecoach.
Source: https://digital.tcl.sc.edu/digital/collection/MVTN/id/5313/rec/2 | 492 |
| 5 |  Enhanced rationality in autism spectrum disorder
In the domains of reasoning, judgment and decision-making, individuals with autism spectrum disorder often show ‘enhanced rationality’ by exhibiting more rational and bias-free decision-making than do neurotypical individuals
Paper: https://www.cell.com/trends/cognitive-sciences/fulltext/S1364-6613(21)00125-X | 673 |
| 6 |  Afghanistan — 138
Ukraine — 3404
Saratov memorial update: on 2nd July 2026, another 200 names were added. The six front sides of the new pillars were completely filled.
https://x.com/i/status/2073801661525483795 | 477 |
| 7 |  According to data from Black Bird Group, in June, the net gains of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine were approximately minus 9 km².
Quote:
Russian losses were driven by Ukrainian counterattacks around Lyman and Andriivka-Klevtsove, as well as North of Hulijaipole.
Grey zone expansions throughout the frontline also contributed to the Russian loss of territory, with Ukraine expanding use of filtration tactics.
Meanwhile the Russian forces also advanced around Kostyantinivka, West of Hulijaipole and East of Kupyansk.
In Kostyantinivka much of the city is now a grey zone with unclear lines of control. It's likely that Russia will completely capture the city by the end of summer.
Source:
https://x.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2073762059733340507
Map: https://www.blackbirdgroup.fi/map | 461 |
| 8 |  Matn yo'q... | 487 |
| 9 | Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 is back, and Arena's Peter Gostev takes a victory lap — showing off 60+ of the wildest 3D generations, mini-games, and world-building tests he's put the model through in the past few days. From a flooded, hyper-detailed Manhattan and a voxel Rome to the Seven Wonders of the World and 2,000 years of London's history, it's a pure highlight reel of what a single prompt can now produce. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rTc2_-1KuRE | 558 |
| 10 | Some links:
1. The Hidden Structures of Problems https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Cisy9STMoFYwboTsy/the-hidden-structures-of-problems
2. Specialized, scaffolded AI systems are now roughly as good as the best human “superforecasters” at predicting near-term, well-defined events—and may already outperform them in finance. https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-ai-superforecasters-are-here
3. "What can a neuron compute? Real biological neurons are complex, but how capable are they? Using a new method, we found that a single cortical neuron can classify cats vs dogs, recognize spoken words, and solve 10-bit parity, all tasks thought to require entire networks." https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.64898/2026.06.08.730984v1
4. A one-time increase in per capita growth from 2% to 2.1% for a single year, then dropping back to 2%, would permanently raise the level of GDP per capita - and because that small gain recurs and compounds every year afterward across the population, it would add up to roughly a trillion dollars in cumulative value. https://www.abundanceandgrowth.org/p/a-little-progress-is-worth-a-trillion
5. Surprising facts about the slave trade https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yDZcsojmRXo5qKNBm/surprising-facts-about-the-slave-trade
6. The LLM shoggoth meme is weirder than you think https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nhb8AyEcQGjQetgi5/the-llm-shoggoth-meme-is-weirder-than-you-think
7. ByteDance Seed developed a new ultra-long horizon benchmark for studying how agents learn in 134 real-world environments over day-long horizons. They found that learning-speed doubles every 3 months. https://edge-bench.org/paper.pdf
8. ~60% Fable cost cut by transparently turning the code into an image and having the model OCR it. https://github.com/teamchong/pxpipe
9. Can Scale Save Us From Plasticity Loss in Large Language Models? https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.24752
10. Autodata: An agentic data scientist to create high quality synthetic data https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.25996
11. "I Gave ChatGPT a Body" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S67z2aekBrI
12. AI therapy works: multi-agent social feedback can rapidly alter an agent’s persistent world-model and behavior, even when the agent has spent a long time reinforcing an erroneous narrative. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eHRo8JeWee5mzQBBR/saving-gemini-the-9-min-road-to-recovery | 525 |
| 11 |  The 3-day special military operation is proceeding according to plan.
Energy shortages are visible in Crimea via nighttime light data collected by NASA.
Observable night light from July 2025 versus July 2026. | 528 |
| 12 |  Lean Software Scaling Laws: https://gwern.net/lean-scaling
In particular, the Lean programming language likely has, with 2026-era LLMs, a worse baseline constant and total loss on existing codebases, but better scaling exponents. This would imply that implementations in Lean can eventually win and deliver large benefits in program correctness at global scale—and thus could help justify large-scale investments in rewriting existing codebases in Lean or paying for new Lean code, thereby improving global cybersecurity. | 505 |
| 13 |  France's Mistral releases Le Chaton L∃∀N, aka Leanstral 1.5.
It achieves SOTA performance on graduate algebra benchmarks FATE-H and FATE-X and improves the Pareto Frontier on PutnamBench, solving 587/672 problems with a x10 cheaper budget.
Despite being primarily trained on math, Leanstral demonstrates impressive code verification capabilities, discovering previously unknown bugs in open-source repositories.
They built an automated pipeline where Aeneas translates Rust code to Lean and Leanstral infers the user intent and generates correctness properties from the code. Across 57 tested repositories, this process flagged 47 violated properties, with 11 pointing to genuine bugs—5 of them previously unreported on GitHub.
🗞️Paper: https://github.com/mistralai/LeanstralSafeVerify/blob/main/LeanstralReport.pdf
📭Blog Post: https://mistral.ai/news/leanstral-1-5/
🤗Model: https://huggingface.co/mistralai/Leanstral-1.5-119B-A6B | 526 |
| 14 |  Roko's Basilisk has been explained to the Trump cabinet: https://www.ft.com/content/5128e476-db8b-48ac-a8fb-0f16d0f5c2ed [no paywall: https://archive.is/qTrpo]
Quote: Among his strange duties as Silicon Valley’s translator in Washington, he said, was explaining Roko’s Basilisk, an internet thought experiment about a vengeful future superintelligence, “to a bunch of the cabinet”. | 1 077 |
| 15 | !["Claude Fable 5 [max] wrote the first genuine (and fastest) megakernel ever submitted to KernelBench-Mega." Read more: https:](https://cdn.tlmtr.io/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fn3.tlmtr.cc%2Fp%2F_RknY0daInwZmovIPK7rPRuq252GUQQwvVj-UKJWm6Dg%3Fty%3Dx&w=64&q=75){kind=small} "Claude Fable 5 [max] wrote the first genuine (and fastest) megakernel ever submitted to KernelBench-Mega."
Read more: https://x.com/elliotarledge/status/2072814573753975266
Benchmark: https://kernelbench.com/mega | 695 |
| 16 |  https://x.com/_xjdr/status/2072916184463483095 | 768 |
| 17 |  "Talkie, a model trained only on text from before 1931, thinks God is extremely important and is “very proud to be a citizen of Great Britain”. It is a bigger believer in law and order than any frontier model we tested."
Source: https://www.economist.com/briefing/2026/06/25/ai-models-values-are-very-different-from-most-peoples [no paywall: https://archive.is/eWm7Y]
[The obvious confounder here is that it is an extremely dumb model.
See also:
- https://www.lesswrong.com/w/orthogonality-thesis
- https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=8693] | 1 673 |
| 18 |  In June 2026, 21 notable organizations disclosed ~1,500 high- and critical-severity CVEs, over 3.5× the previous monthly record set before Claude Mythos Preview's release.
https://epoch.ai/data-insights/cve-severity-spike | 620 |
| 19 | Just one note about Russia's propaganda strategy. They collect drones and missiles for weeks and then use them primarily against one city. This is mainly aimed at their low-IQ, third-world audience and "useful idiots" in the West because it provides spectacular images.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukraine is capable of doing the same. The Russian MoD claims to have shot down 594 drones per day in June (not counting missiles). Now, imagine if Ukraine collected them for two weeks and sent them all to Moscow. This would look impressive but be extremely ineffective.
Just tonight, Ukraine took out several targets, including Russia’s fourth-largest oil refinery. The AVT-6 unit was hit, removing 5,700 tons of marketable gasoline and 7,700 tons of marketable diesel from the market each day. Something similar happens literally every day.
If you look at maps of Russia's attack today, you will also notice that Russia hasn't even tried to attack Ukrainian defense production facilities in western Ukraine. They didn't accomplish anything during the last attacks, so this time they just focused on optics. | 700 |
| 20 |  Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-29/china-pushes-all-school-levels-to-teach-ai-in-xi-s-tech-drive
Official Chinese original sources:
- https://www.nda.gov.cn/sjj/zwgk/zcfb/0413/20260410162428109058250_pc.html
- https://gaj.wuhan.gov.cn/jmzx/gwyxx/202606/t20260630_2814790.html | 691 |
