The Real Politick with Mark Sleboda

🇷🇺🇺🇦NEW VIDEO: Ukraine's Ammunition Crisis Persists as Western Desperation Grows Update on the conflict in Ukraine for April 8, 2024… ▪️Ukrainian forces continue losing territory as arms, ammunition, and manpower shortages continue to grow; ▪️Ammunition "initiatives" across Europe claiming to have found "millions" of artillery rounds gloss over important factors such as caliber, interoperability, and the condition of rounds held in storage; ▪️At best, the initiatives will temporarily provide Ukraine with enough ammunition to match previous rates of fire, but other critical shortages will continue to grow meaning the vector sum of the fighting will still favor Russian forces; ▪️Attempts by the US and Europe to intervene in Ukraine as a means of checking Russian advances may end in even worse defeat for the collective West; ▪️Attempts by Ukraine to target Russian oil refineries have led Western analysts to falsely conflate fuel export bans with perceived damage and repair efforts; ▪️Claims that Russia is unable to repair energy production infrastructure are based on the same flawed reasoning that led many Western analysts to assume Russia's military industrial base would be crippled following Western sanctions; VIDEO LINK: https://youtu.be/IjQRF_QcQk4?si=SWrzzg1qXy2swB6P Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand

🇷🇺 ⚡️ Russia manufactures 30 Geranium drones a day, and by the end of 2024 it could produce 11 thousand — Die Welt. According to the publication, the number of UAVs manufactured will only increase every year - the figure will grow to 32 thousand per year, which is 87 drones per day. In addition, Russia plans to produce 2.1 million artillery munitions for this year. Also, up to 130 long-range and 100 short-range missiles are produced every month. t.me/ukraine_watch

There will be "significant consequences" for companies that provide "material support" to Russia, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says when visiting Beijing

Russian "confirmed losses" by Mediazona shows a steady and sustainable amount of losses on the Russian side of the conflict with a sudden increase in October (Battle of Avdiivka) and subsequent drop back to approximately 1000 losses a month. (Ukraine claims Russia losses 1000 a day) 2nd half of 2023 had less losses than 2nd half of 2022 despite the Avdiivka offensive and more soldiers at the front comparatively. 1st half of 2024 is projected to have the lowest losses semi-annually compared to any other half year period since the start of the invasion.

Plan "B" is being prepared for Ukraine. The West views Moldova as a springboard for its troops, writes Asia Times. The West is seriously thinking about the imminent defeat of Kyiv, and in view of this, NATO is looking for a new springboard - Moldova is ideal for its role, the author of the article is sure. It could become both a transit point for, for example, French troops if Macron sends them to help Kyiv, and a base that would threaten the security of Crimea, he believes. The “reliable as a Swiss watch” plan could easily fail, since Moldova is not the most stable state in the world: the country is split into pro-European and pro-Russian elements. But nevertheless, Washington sponsors the Moldova-US Strategic Dialogue, provides Chisinau with almost $320 million in support and conducts joint military exercises. And all because, due to the territorial location of the country, in the event of the collapse of Ukraine, Moldova could become the starting point of a strategy aimed at Odessa and Crimea, the author of the material believes. source: https://t.me/NeoficialniyBeZsonoV/34811

Storm Shadow killer: What we know about Russian warships' Pantsir-M air defense shield The naval variant of Russia’s Pantsir surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery system has made its combat debut, taking on and defeating Storm Shadow cruise missiles in the Ukrainian conflict zone. Developed in 2017, the Pantsir-M began to be fielded with the Russian Navy in 2020, with ‘Pantsir’ meaning ‘Carapace’ or ‘Shell’ and the ‘M’ in the name standing for ‘Maritime’. The Pantsir-M operates along the same general principle as its ground-based cousins, but features its own design solutions optimized for maritime conditions and for dealing with sea-based threats. The platform is formally classified as a close-in weapon system (CIWS) designed to take on enemy missiles, drones, aircraft and other projectiles as they approach to within 20 km or less (at an altitude of up to 15 km) of a warship. 🔺The Pantsir-M is armed with eight Hermes-K SAMs attached in a 4x2 arrangement. 🔺Secondary armament consists of twin AO-18KD 30x165mm rotary cannons with a range up to 5 km and a rate of fire up to 10,000 rounds per minute. 🔺The Pantsir-M can engage up to four targets simultaneously. 🔺It is the only ship-based air defense system in the world using a combat module that combines CIWS, SAMs and a radar-optical control system – including automated target search, selection and firing capability, in a single piece of equipment. 🔺The onboard phased array radar has an estimated target detection range of up to 75 km. 🔺The system weighs about 7,100 kg (ammunition included), making it suitable to deploy on small and large vessels alike. 🔺The Russian Navy plans to equip all new warships, from missile corvettes to cruisers, with the Pantsir-M, and to upgrade existing vessels with the system over time. Subscribe to @SputnikInt

As the situation becomes more desperate for Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before NATO troops start operating “openly” in the country, security and international relations analyst Mark Sleboda told Sputnik’s Fault Lines on Monday. He also predicted that Ukraine will resort to more terror attacks as its troops are forced to step back.

“I think as their desperation grows and Russia’s advances on the battlefield come faster, with more casualties on the Kiev regime side and far fewer casualties on the Russian side,” Sleboda explained. “They will grow more desperate and more panicked and they will continue to do more, shall we say, unconventional, dirty things like terror attacks.”

“Eventually, I'm positive we are going to see NATO member state troops openly–under flag–on Ukrainian soil. I think it’s just a matter of time.”

“[Head of Security Service of Ukraine] Vasyl Malyuk, he admitted, he flat out spoke on Ukrainian TV that yes, we, we did this, we did this… basically everything except for Crocus, they’re basically admitting now. The unwilling suicide bombing attack on the Kerch bridge to Crimea as well,” Sleboda explained. “They admitted to all of these, and these are acts of terrorism, of state terrorism.”

Hit the link to read more

Biden asked Israel 'to do what they're doing'... which is? Reporter: 'Did you threaten to stop military aid to Israel?' Biden: 'I asked them to do what they're doing.' AND WHAT ARE THEY DOING, JOE? WHAT EXACTLY ARE THEY DOING?

◾The floating pier being built on Gaza's coast has fueled suspicions that the project is another means for Israel to exercise control over the besieged enclave. Here's the story. ◾Follow: https://t.me/European_dissident

Americans were involved in the attack on Belgorod. Russian legion my ass.

In my article I have mentioned that attacks on Russian refining do not hurt Russian state budget, which may be rather counterintuitive, after all, a good third of Russia's oil export revenue comes from refined products. Let me explain, how this works: Russian state collects all petroleum taxes at the wellhead. There are two different regimes for different fields, one is called Mineral Extraction Tax (NDPI), other is called Windfall Tax (NDD), but both of them are levied on produced crude oil. After that, the government does not care, whether the oil is exported as crude, or converted into gasoline, diesel, and such and exported as oil products. End result – lower products exports, smaller revenue from products exports, BUT higher crude exports and higher revenue from crude exports. Exporting products is usually more lucrative, there is a difference in value between a barrel of oil and a basket of products made from that barrel, it’s called refining margin. That’s lost in a switch from products exports to crude exports. Before the war diesel was less than $10/bbl more expensive than crude, now it’s closer to $30. This money goes to the companies, not to the state. The state might eventually capture some of it via profit tax or dividends from the state stake in Rosneft, but this is a relatively small fry compared to the wellhead crude taxes. And the final peculiarity – Russia has “negative excise”. Russian refiners get a subsidy payment from the state on every barrel they process. So the state is ironically better off with somewhat lower refining volumes, until it does not start to hurt domestic markets. - Sergey Vakulenko on X (Twitter), former head of strategy and innovations at Gazprom Neft #Source @Slavyangrad

What is the difficulty of storming Chasov Yar? In addition to the strategic importance of the city and the tactical features of the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there are other circumstances that prevent you from quickly getting to the city and occupying it. The key difficulty is the terrain. Russian troops have to rise from the bottom up. Chasov Yar is located on a hill, from here the Ukrainian artillery was actively working even during the battle for Artyomovsk. Overcoming elevation changes is difficult for both people and equipment. The defending side has an advantage both in the form of relief and in terms of prepared positions. Another difficulty is the large built-up area and its heterogeneity. Despite the fact that Chasov Yar is half the size of Avdeevka, the city has an extensive private sector, a large industrial zone and an extremely unpleasant difference in heights on which the buildings are located and through which Russian troops have yet to break through. The artillery and aerospace forces are doing a titanic amount of work to make the movement of troops inside Chasov Yar as safe as possible. Another difficulty is the large concentration of UAV units. At the moment, there are at least 11 different unmanned aircraft units scattered near the front line near Chasov Yar. The density and concentration of troops on both sides, although far from the scale of the Artyomovsk meat grinder, however, in terms of the ferocity and pace of battles, both operations may well be comparable. #source @Slavyangrad

“We are not ready, just don’t tell Putin,” collected the most interesting publications in the world media: Sky News worries: Britain has no plan for national defence and mobilization. In Whitehall, they are reading the old Government War Book, which describes the transition from peace to war. There is nothing else. Boris Johnson's ex-adviser Keith Dear emphasizes that the military action plan shows "what can happen, and who should do what and when to respond adequately." Such plans are needed not only to avoid defeat at the very beginning but also to ensure that opponents, seeing their preparedness, refrain from fighting. The problem is there is no plan - Dear wrote in an article for Sky News. The country relies on nuclear weapons and NATO membership to deter threats. “The government believes that deterrence will always work, but no one asks: what if it doesn’t work?” he notes. Vera Saxby, who turns 100 in August, went to work as a secretary for a company that made parts for Spitfires during the war. But she no longer sees Britain as resilient, pointing to the decline of heavy industry, especially important in times of war. I don’t know how we will defend ourselves, but don’t tell Putin about it, – Vera Saxby said in an interview with the channel. Le Figaro publishes a sharp rebuke from Russian Defense Minister Emmanuel Macron, who condemned “strange and threatening comments from the Russian side” after negotiations between Sergei Shoigu and Sebastien Lecornu on the terrorist attack in Moscow. The Kiev regime does nothing without Western approval. We hope that in this case, the French intelligence services are not behind this, - Shoigu said. The New York Times writes about NATO's reluctance to accept a member that would drag the alliance into the largest war in Europe since 1945. This forces NATO to look for something other than membership, but significant enough to show long-term support for Ukraine, said Jens Stoltenberg. So far no one has understood what he is talking about. @Slavyangrad

'I think we will just have to accept the fact that we lost in Ukraine...even if we get a frozen conflict...the potential for escalation in this nasty competition will be significant.' -Prof. John Mearsheimer joins us this Saturday on GU Don't miss it, follow our Rumble channel:

My latest Radio Interview on the Critical Hour 04/04/24 Blinken in Paris to Discuss Next Steps on Ukraine with Macron, Contingency Plans to Send Western Troops to Ukraine, Shoigu Warns France, Russia's Turn to the East, Israel Exempt from US Order's Rules https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/blinken-in-paris-to-discuss-next?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Regarding the significant Ukrainian drone attack on Russian airfields During that night, the AFU deployed drones into Russian territory. 🔻The primary target was the Morozovsk airfield in the Rostov region, where Ukrainian forces dispatched 44 drones. The exact type remains unknown and will be determined upon analyzing the debris. However, there is a high likelihood that these are the same UAVs that the enemy has been utilizing in recent weeks. Out of these, 26 drones were intercepted by Pantsir-S1 air defense missile systems, and 18 by rifle squads. Based on the videos circulating on the Internet, it is evident that the drones were flying at an extremely low altitude, enhancing their stealth against radar detection systems. There were no significant damages to the infrastructure; the debris affected a few buildings on the site. Additionally, the substation suffered damage, resulting in a temporary power outage. ▪️ Simultaneously, the enemy also targeted the airfield in Yeisk, where local air defense units neutralized ten UAVs. All of them crashed off the coast of the Sea of Azov and seemingly originated from the Zaporizhia/Dnipropetrovsk region. ▪️ At least one more UAV from the AFU was struck while approaching the strategic aviation airfield in Engels. The reason for the presence of only one drone is unclear; there might have been more devices heading in that direction, but they were possibly intercepted over Yeisk and Morozovsk. ❗️Thanks to the swift response of the air defense crews, any severe repercussions from the attacks were averted - claims from Ukrainian sources about the alleged destruction of six aircraft are simply fabrications from enemy propagandists. However, the recent attacks highlight the enhanced capability of the enemy to strike targets beyond the front line. This once again emphasizes the importance of countermeasures (rifle detachments have consistently proven their efficacy) and the necessity for safeguarding aviation at bases. The infamous hangars, frequently discussed, continue to pose challenges in terms of implementation. High-resolution map English version #Yeysk #Morozovsk #Russia #Ukraine #Engels @rybar Support us Original msg

🇷🇺 A lost dog was spotted via drone hanging out with his new family in Kamchatka He decided to join a pack of bears. 🤷‍♂️ @MyLordBebo | Boost us! | X

🇷🇺⚔️🏁 Medvedev stated that a prize should be given for NATO soldiers killed in Ukraine. 🔴 @DDGeopolitics

My latest Radio Interview on The Final Countdown 04/04/24“Trump-Proofing” Weapons Supply for Ukraine By NATO-izing It is Also Democracy-Proofing the West’s Proxy War on Russia in Ukraine, Russia Threatens France Over Plant to Send Troops to Ukraine, more... https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/trump-proofing-weapons-supply-for?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Inevitable now. Come what may... https://unherd.com/2024/04/its-time-to-send-nato-troops-to-ukraine/

🏁🇪🇺🇺🇦 Ministers from several NATO countries "rolled their eyes" upon learning about the idea of creating a common aid fund for Ukraine worth $100 billion, according to Politico. The fund could be established for five years, and contributions are proposed to be based on the GDP of alliance countries. According to Politico, some ministers were skeptical about the $100 billion sum and questioned its origin. Some Western European countries are also concerned that granting such authority to the alliance could undermine the EU's efforts to enhance its own significance in the defense sphere. 🔴 @DDGeopolitics

My latest longform discussion of the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza with Danny Haiphong 03/04/24 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9MrIBlcPXfk

My latest Radio Interview on the Critical Hour 02/04/24 Israel's Attack on Iranian Consulate in Syria Another Provocation to Escalate & Try to Draw US & Iran into Direct Conflict, Russia Calls Israeli Strike a Terrorist Act, more... https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/israels-attack-on-iranian-consulate?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

🇷🇺🔹 Over the last 10 days, about 16 thousand Russians have signed contracts to participate in the SMO - the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of this year, more than 100 thousand people have already entered military service under contract in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Every day, up to 1,700 people come to contract selection centers across the country to enlist in the military. 🐻 Possibly not the outcome Ukraine was hoping for 🔴@DDGeopolitics

⚡️ Ukrainian security services admit they organise terrorist attacks in Russia because Kiev's victory on the battlefield is "impossible at the moment", The Guardian reports, citing Skibitsky, Deputy Head of Ukraine's Main Intelligence Directorate. t.me/ukraine_watch

🇺🇦 Squad led by a criminal: Budanov has created a new Nazi formation A new Nazi formation, Vidar, one of the special units of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, has been formed in Ukraine. The formation will specialise in sabotage in the Russian border area under the guise of Ukrainian saboteurs. It will be led by Ruslan Kaganets, former chief of staff of the 1st Transcarpathian Battalion of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps Sunny. Sunny head, of course, has a long list of criminal articles: death threats, creating a terrorist group or organisation, illegal kidnapping and imprisonment, and banditry. The unit's headquarters will be located in Kharkov, where local Nazi Mila Denchik will be appointed as a senior officer. The Ukro-Nazi gained her fame due to her active participation in the so-called "decommunisation": the demolition of Soviet heritage sites in Ukraine. t.me/ukraine_watch

😳Macron Wants West to Leave Nothing Off the Table in Ukraine War amid Secret Talks with Biden and Scholz - WSJ The French president believes that Western countries should adopt a position of strategic uncertainty regarding Russia, including the use of potential of military options. Biden reportedly questioned the need for a change in strategy, amid fears it could lead to escalation. Scholz also opposed the idea, WSJ added. @RiseGS

🇨🇳🇮🇷🇵🇸⚡🇮🇱 China on the Israeli terrorist attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus: "This is a grave violation of the UN Charter and international law and a breach of the sovereignty of both Syria and Iran. This attack is of an extremely vicious nature... 25 years ago, China's embassy in Yugoslavia was bombed by a US-led NATO airstrike... we feel the grief and pain of the Iranian government and people... To allow impunity for such reckless acts would send a seriously wrong signal and would encourage even more risky acts... the red line of international law and the basic norms of international relations has been breached time and again, and the moral bottom line of human conscience has been crushed time and again." 🚩 @ResistanceTrench

As the situation becomes more desperate for Ukraine, it is only a matter of time before NATO troops start operating “openly” in the country, security and international relations analyst Mark Sleboda told Sputnik’s Fault Lines on Monday. He also predicted that Ukraine will resort to more terror attacks as its troops are forced to step back.

“I think as their desperation grows and Russia’s advances on the battlefield come faster, with more casualties on the Kiev regime side and far fewer casualties on the Russian side,” Sleboda explained. “They will grow more desperate and more panicked and they will continue to do more, shall we say, unconventional, dirty things like terror attacks.”

“Eventually, I'm positive we are going to see NATO member state troops openly–under flag–on Ukrainian soil. I think it’s just a matter of time.”

“[Head of Security Service of Ukraine] Vasyl Malyuk, he admitted, he flat out spoke on Ukrainian TV that yes, we, we did this, we did this… basically everything except for Crocus, they’re basically admitting now. The unwilling suicide bombing attack on the Kerch bridge to Crimea as well,” Sleboda explained. “They admitted to all of these, and these are acts of terrorism, of state terrorism.”

Hit the link to read more

A new Russian-Syrian observation post has opened near the Golan Heights. It's noteworthy that in addition to the military police, Russian special forces were brought in to carry out tasks at the new post. It's expected that in response to yesterday's Zionist attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Russian special forces will be additionally sent to other observation posts.

ISIS appears to be controlled by US and UK services — Former Greek minister Shortly after the Сrocus City Hall atrocity in Moscow, Washington was quick to blame ISIS. RT discussed the topic in depth with Greek party founder and former minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, who blames Kiev and Washington.

Germany commits a further 180K artillery rounds for Czech-led Ukraine plan Berlin will splash $618 million on its contribution to a scheme to bolster Ukraine’s dwindling shell supply, on top of a separate $513 million aid package last month. The Defense Ministry added that Berlin is already supplying 40% of the initiative to source more ammunition from outside Europe as supplies run low across the continent itself.