A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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Learn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.
Show moreπ Analytical overview of Telegram channel A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Channel A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures (@a1tradingfxanalysis) in the English language segment is an active participant. Currently, the community unites 43 344 subscribers, ranking 2 634 in the Economy & Finance category and 704 in the USA region.
π Audience metrics and dynamics
Since its creation on Π½Π΅Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠΌΠΎ, the project has demonstrated rapid growth, gathering an audience of 43 344 subscribers.
According to the latest data from 09 July, 2026, the channel demonstrates stable activity. Although there has been a change in the number of participants by 741 over the last 30 days and by 43 over the last 24 hours, overall reach remains high.
- Verification status: Not verified
- Engagement rate (ER): The average audience engagement rate is 8.11%. Within the first 24 hours after publication, content typically collects 4.87% reactions from the total number of subscribers.
- Post reach: On average, each post receives 3 516 views. Within the first day, a publication typically gains 2 112 views.
- Reactions and interaction: The audience actively supports content: the average number of reactions per post is 26.
- Thematic interests: Content is focused on key topics such as inflation, alan, edgefinder, fed, ceasefire.
π Description and content policy
The author describes the resource as a platform for expressing subjective opinions:
βLearn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.β
Thanks to the high frequency of updates (latest data received on 10 July, 2026), the channel maintains relevance and a high level of publication reach. Analytics show that the audience actively interacts with content, making it an important point of influence in the Economy & Finance category.
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| Date | Subscriber Growth | Mentions | Channels | |
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| 05 July | +13 | |||
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| 03 July | +29 | |||
| 02 July | +41 | |||
| 01 July | +72 |
Channel Posts
π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When volume drops significantly during a pullback within an uptrend, what does this suggest?
| 2 |  USD/CAD Analysis: Now Watching For Pullback Opportunities
USDCAD is easing slightly today. Just above the broken 1.408β1.413 shelf (former resistance, now support), the rising 200-day (~1.385) well below. Uptrend intact above the 200-day, but near the range top.
USD eased off the week's highs as USβIran attacks resumed and the tape turned risk-on: oil, VIX and yields all lower. Wednesday's FOMC minutes kept a 2026 hike on the table, division only on timing. That Fed openness is the dollar's underpin.
Oil cuts both ways: a sustained rise lifts CAD via terms-of-trade but also the USD via the Fed channel β lately USD has led. MUFG's Hardman: sustained oil gains "could reinforce the dollar's recent upward momentum."
Bias is buy-the-dip while the uptrend holds. A shallow dip to 1.408β1.413 is risk-defined but thin up here; a deeper flush to 1.390 where the 200 Day lies is the cleaner setup.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 030 |
| 3 |  USOIL Now Stalls at the 200-Day as Iran Risk Cools
USOIL is pressed on the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude jumped 4.4% yesterday (biggest since May) on renewed USβIran hostilities, US strikes, retaliation on US bases, and Hormuz refocused. Today it slipped below 73. Disruption scale is unclear: flows largely continue on Iran-approved routes, the Omani corridor barely used.
VIX is also lower, rejecting yesterday's 200-day SMA touch. Duration beats the peak: a spike leaves disinflation intact; only a sustained Hormuz closure reprices the inflation and Fed path.
The 200-day near 72 is the line. Close above on a lasting disruption opens 84β88. Reject here as flows normalize and VIX falls with it, and the downtrend resumes toward 68.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 1 886 |
| 4 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Oil surged 6% on the ceasefire collapse while gold fell 1.65%. Why would gold drop during a geopolitical escalation? | 2 520 |
| 5 |  DXY Now: Fed Minutes Clash With a Fresh Oil Surge
DXY trades near 100.98 on confluence support: the ~100.5 demand zone and the rising trendline off the AprilβMay lows. 200 MA near 99 is dynamic support below price.
June FOMC minutes read hawkish: easing bias dropped, 9 of 18 dots project a hike this year, a few argued to hike now. But they were written against Iran de-escalation and falling oil. This week flipped that β Trump called the ceasefire "over," oil is bid, the update reads stale.
The price action after the minutes: DXY softened, oil pared from +6% to ~+2%, yields eased. DXYβrate correlation near 0.88 makes the dollar a derivative of Fed pricing, which hinges on oil. EdgeFinder cooled to Neutral from Very Bullish.
Oil is the pivot. Hold 100.5 with oil/yields re-firming and DXY targets 101.5β102.0. Oil cools and June's playbook resumes.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 588 |
| 6 |  NZD/USD Now Jumps as RBNZ Hikes for First Time Since 2023
NZD/USD at 0.5706 on the weekly, up 0.48% today after the RBNZ raised its cash rate 25bps to 2.50%, its first hike since mid-2023, and flagged more likely. The 200-week SMA caps price near 0.5830.
The rate story is the driver. The RBNZ called further hikes "likely at upcoming meetings" but stressed timing is uncertain. Two of six members saw upside inflation risk; the rest, including Governor Breman, saw balance. Markets price a 60% chance of a September move and ~38bps by year-end.
Capital Economics reads a hike roughly every other meeting until the OCR peaks near 3.25%. NZ 2-year swaps rose to 3.37%, 10-year yields to 4.54% β still just under Treasuries after outperforming for three months.
The bounce faces real overhead supply. Until price reclaims 0.5800β0.5850, the weekly structure stays bearish. Support sits below near 0.5650, then the 0.5550 zone.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 482 |
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| 8 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When a macro surprise index trends positive for weeks then suddenly flattens, what does this shift often precede? | 2 814 |
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| 10 |  Gold Now Consolidates as Crucial FOMC Minutes Loom
Gold is nearly flat today, consolidating rather than reversing after last week's bounce. Price holds near the $4,000β$4,100 area as traders wait on tomorrow's FOMC minutes before committing.
The driver stays real yields. September hike odds are back to 58%, and renewed Gulf tension is nudging oil higher β which lifts inflation concerns and reinforces the higher-for-longer stance that pressures non-yielding gold. Trump renewed threats against Iran; Tehran says peace talks stall unless those threats are dropped.
The offsetting bid is official demand. China's central bank posted its largest monthly gold-reserve increase in over two and a half years in June β steady sovereign accumulation that cushions the downside even as rates weigh.
Tomorrow's minutes are the catalyst. Focus falls on the Fed's read of inflation and labor, and any internal divergence. Support sits at $4,000, resistance at $4,400.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 780 |
| 11 |  US 10Y Now Climbs as Decisive Fed Minutes Near
The US 10Y is at a two-week high, as a renewed rise in oil revived inflation concerns. Oil gained more than 2% after an LNG carrier was struck exiting the Strait of Hormuz β a reminder the Gulf security risk is not fully priced out.
The move partly reverses last week's decline. Soft June payrolls and downward revisions had scaled back hike bets; the oil-driven inflation impulse now nudges them back up. September hike odds sit at 58%, up from 56%.
Last week's labor weakness argues for lower yields; this week's oil rebound argues for higher. Tomorrow's FOMC Minutes will help clarify the big question. Are rates lower or higher from here?
If yields rise after the minutes, it signals restrictive policy ahead β dollar-supportive, gold-negative. If they fall, the labor-driven easing narrative resumes β dollar-negative, gold-positive.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 652 |
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| 13 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why is the 200 EMA considered one of the most widely watched moving averages? | 3 081 |
| 14 |  DXY Is Now Flirting With An Important Level
DXY is edging up to start the week but holding near a three-week low after its largest weekly decline since April.
The soft June payrolls report drove last week's drop, scaling back Fed hike bets. September odds sit at 56%, down from 64% pre-NFP. Oil at pre-conflict levels continues to ease the inflation side.
The counterweight is growth. Societe Generale notes the US is the only G-10 economy where 2026 growth forecasts have risen since January β a backdrop that keeps inflation above target and limits the case for cuts. ISM Services came in at 54 this morning, in line.
The setup is a standstill at 100.50. A hold with buyers stepping in confirms the break-and-retest and points higher. A break opens the 99.00 handle at the 200-day SMA. FOMC minutes this week are the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 177 |
| 15 |  USD/JPY Now Near 40-Year High as Carry Trade Drives Yen
USD/JPY is back near a four-decade high after recovering roughly 170 pips to erase Friday's drop to 160.50. Price sits above the 160.00β160.50 intervention zone that capped rallies earlier this year.
The driver is the widening policy gap. The Fed stays relatively hawkish while the BoJ moves cautiously, and even after soft US jobs data, high dollar yields keep the carry trade attractive. Low G-7 FX volatility supports that flow. Markets price 30bps of Fed hikes this year.
Intervention risk remains the overhang. Japan holds roughly $1.3T in reserves; the last operation burned $75B and knocked 500 pips off the pair, all of which has since been reclaimed. A Japanese official floated raising rates more aggressively β a structural fix for yen weakness rather than a temporary one.
Wednesday's FOMC minutes are the catalyst. A hawkish read lifts the dollar toward 163. Support sits at 160.00, then 157.50.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 240 |
| 16 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A series of candles with small upper wicks and long bodies closing near the high suggests: | 4 825 |
| 17 |  Is the DXY unwinding or is this another buy the dip?
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| 18 |  DXY Now Soften as Soft Payrolls Cut Hike Bets
DXY at 100.75, pulling back 0.7% after today's soft NFP scaled back Fed hike bets. Price rejected the 102.00 resistance and is retracing into the 100.50 zone β former resistance the index broke above in June, now the first test of support.
The setup is a standstill with two paths. Buyers step in at 100.50 and the break-and-retest holds, resuming higher. Or the level fails, and a crowded dollar long unwinds toward the 99.00 handle where the 200-day SMA converges.
The macro still tilts toward the first option, until it doesn't.. Three straight NFP beats built the strong-labor narrative; a cooler print questions it. Oil below pre-war levels eases the inflation side of the Fed's mandate. If labor cracks while inflation cools, the Fed can prioritize employment β which pressures the dollar.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 4 552 |
| 19 |  US 2Y Now Tests Key War Trendline
The US 2Y at 4.121%, down 4.6bps after June NFP came in at 57,000 β well below the 110,000 estimate, with May revised down to 129,000 from 172,000. The 2Y tracks Fed rate expectations more closely than any other yield, and it's now testing the war-start trendline that has held since March.
The soft print cut hike bets sharply. July odds fell to 19.8% from 28.9%; September dropped to 55% from 64.1%. The revision matters as much as the print β it says the labor market was never as hot as May suggested.
This eases pressure on Warsh, who has prioritized inflation over labor. With oil below pre-war levels cooling the inflation side, a softening labor market could pull the Fed back toward balancing both mandates.The trendline is the level to watch. A hold keeps the tightening bias intact. A break signals the market pricing the peak in Fed expectations, opening a move toward the 200-day SMA near 3.70%.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 687 |
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