A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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Learn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.
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Channel A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures (@a1tradingfxanalysis) in the English language segment is an active participant. Currently, the community unites 43 401 subscribers, ranking 2 617 in the Economy & Finance category and 702 in the USA region.
π Audience metrics and dynamics
Since its creation on Π½Π΅Π²ΡΠ΄ΠΎΠΌΠΎ, the project has demonstrated rapid growth, gathering an audience of 43 401 subscribers.
According to the latest data from 14 July, 2026, the channel demonstrates stable activity. Although there has been a change in the number of participants by 758 over the last 30 days and by 17 over the last 24 hours, overall reach remains high.
- Verification status: Not verified
- Engagement rate (ER): The average audience engagement rate is 8.55%. Within the first 24 hours after publication, content typically collects 5.00% reactions from the total number of subscribers.
- Post reach: On average, each post receives 3 712 views. Within the first day, a publication typically gains 2 171 views.
- Reactions and interaction: The audience actively supports content: the average number of reactions per post is 27.
- Thematic interests: Content is focused on key topics such as inflation, alan, edgefinder, fed, ceasefire.
π Description and content policy
The author describes the resource as a platform for expressing subjective opinions:
βLearn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.β
Thanks to the high frequency of updates (latest data received on 15 July, 2026), the channel maintains relevance and a high level of publication reach. Analytics show that the audience actively interacts with content, making it an important point of influence in the Economy & Finance category.
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| Date | Subscriber Growth | Mentions | Channels | |
| 15 July | +21 | |||
| 14 July | +41 | |||
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| 10 July | +21 | |||
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| 03 July | +29 | |||
| 02 July | +41 | |||
| 01 July | +72 |
Channel Posts
π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A positive carry trade cannot lose money as long as the interest rate differential remains unchanged.
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| 3 |  GBP/USD Analysis: USD Is Getting Pounded! (Pun Intended)
GBPUSD is RIPPING to its highest since late May and clearing the 200 MA, up 1.1% on the day. Price now presses against the 1.360 resistance that rejected the February and May advances.
Three drivers stack the same way. UK political risk is easing: Burnham becomes PM July 20, and reports that fiscally disciplined Mahmood, not the expansionary Miliband, takes the Treasury reassured markets. Gilts absolutely loved that and rallied.
The rate story reinforces it. Oil at one-month highs flipped BoE pricing from two cuts this year to a fully priced November hike, another by April 2027. Higher for longer supports sterling.
Add a softer dollar from cooling CPI and PPI and cable moves in a straight line. The test is 1.355 to 1.360. Reclaim it and structure turns. Reject, and this is a strong move into major supply that needs a catalyst to break. ING: high UK rates keep sterling supported.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 1 147 |
| 4 |  US02Y Now Tests the War Trendline as CPI and PPI Cool
US02Y is testing the ascending trendline from the war-start low in late February. That line has defined the entire uptrend and today is its most serious test. A close below means rate odds are changing...
The case for lower yields is building. NFP rolled to 57,000, CPI fell 0.4% Tuesday, and PPI fell -0.3% today, a second straight cooling print, both energy-led. July hike odds have collapsed to ~12%, and the two-year, which tracks Fed expectations, softens with them.
Oil is the missing piece and it cuts the other way. June's lower crude produced this disinflation directly. Brent is back above 85 with the blockade live. Sticky oil walks back the progress and forces the Fed toward hikes.
Warsh refused to call it mission accomplished, citing years of above-target core PCE. A hawkish anchor under yields. The trendline is the tell: below it, the market trusts the cooling; above, oil wins. PCE decides July 30.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 1 149 |
| 5 |  Is gold priming for a breakout, finally?
- CPI & PPI both ice cold
- Support seemingly holding at $4000 for now
- Crowd sentiment overwhelmingly bearish
- Downward trendline remains the largest hurdle. Can we break above?
I'm watching for a possible trade!
- Nick | 1 615 |
| 6 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
A "round trip" in trading refers to: | 2 413 |
| 7 |  Surprise Canadian Job Report Is Now Sending USD/CAD Lower
USDCAD is breaking down hard through the 1.410 shelf that framed early July. Next demand is 1.390 to 1.395. The rising 200-day near 1.385 sits just beneath it.
Both legs now push the same way. Cool US CPI killed the July hike and cut September odds to 63%, softening the dollar. Canada added 18,200 jobs in June against a 10,000 consensus, with unemployment at 6.5%, a two-year low, removing the case for BoC cuts.
Oil is the reversal. Brent is above 85, up over 10% on the week, with the blockade live today. Rising crude used to lift USD through the Fed channel. That channel is now severed, so oil flows purely into CAD terms-of-trade strength.
The 1.395 long is technically sound but fundamentally uphill for now. Canada's jobs gains were part-time and World Cup inflated, and goods-producing shed 43,700. BoC decides tomorrow. Wait for oil to stall before sizing the dip.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 621 |
| 8 |  DXY Now Slides as CPI Posts Its Biggest Drop in 6 Years
DXY softens, sitting on key support and the ascending trendline off the May lows.
June CPI fell 0.4% against a 0.1% consensus decline, the largest drop since April 2020, with the annual rate easing to 3.5% from 4.2%. Core was flat, the best since January 2021. A July hike is off the table, September odds fell to 63%, and DXY is down 0.5%.
The caveat is decisive. The disinflation was energy, not breadth: energy fell 5.7% and gasoline 9.7%, both reflecting June oil. Oil has since reclaimed its 200-day and the blockade begins today. CPI will not capture that for a month.
Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong. Lose 100.45 with oil tamed and the Fed refocusing on softening labor, and dollar shorts have their setup. Hold it with oil sticky, and 101.7 returns. Warsh testifies today.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 386 |
| 9 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
The Fed's dot plot represents a binding commitment to a specific rate path that markets can rely on for positioning | 2 683 |
| 10 |  USD/JPY Now Erases the Yen Rally as Tokyo Walks It Back
USDJPY trades near 162.36, up 0.42%, back into the 162.5 to 163.0 resistance that capped it in early July.
Friday's yen rally has been retraced in full. Reuters reports Tokyo has no immediate plans to change GPIF target allocations, only to work within existing ranges. A government source conceded markets reacted more than expected.
GPIF is mandated to invest solely for beneficiaries and cannot deploy assets to advance policy goals. Verbal encouragement cannot compel flow. Only the rate differential moves this pair, so far. I think until there are tangible targets and a timeline, this remains a hopeful (idea) that can help bring Yen strength.
Forced buying was sand against the carry, and the market repriced it in one session. Chasing 162.5 to 163.0 near 40-year lows carries intervention risk. Dips toward 160.5 remain the trend side.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 867 |
| 11 |  Gold Analysis: Buy or Sell? It's Easy.
Gold gets pressured and falls 2.8% to 4,005, the lowest since July 1. Price sits at the point of a descending triangle: the trendline off the February highs converges with the 3,880 to 4,050 demand zone. The 200-day near 4,450 sits above price as resistance.
Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% levy on Hormuz cargo. Oil jumped 5%. Higher energy costs feed inflation, pushing the Fed higher for longer. FedWatch prices a 71% chance of a September hike.
Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price. With US real yields near 2008 highs and hike odds climbing, the cost of holding bullion is rising. Geopolitical fear normally bids gold. Here the rate channel is overwhelming the haven channel.
Tomorrow's CPI is in focus. Hot CPI with oil and yields firm breaks the zone, opening 3,800 then 3,500. Cool CPI with oil tamed lifts price toward 4,250. Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 2 551 |
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| 13 | No text... | 3 766 |
| 14 |  USD/JPY Now: Is Forced Buying Enough to Prop The Yen?
USDJPY is easing a bit after tagging 40-year highs. Uptrend intact: the 200-day (~157) is well below price as dynamic support.
Today's bounce is real yen strength, not dollar weakness β broad-based (EURJPY, GBPJPY lower) while DXY barely moved. FinMin Katayama wants pension giants like the $1.8T GPIF to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets."
But durability is the question. It's exploratory and there's no solidified no targets or timeline. The rate differential still drives the yen. US CPI Tuesday swings the USD leg.
Forced buying is sand against the carry unless it becomes sized, sustained flow and (or) BoJ rates move. Near 40-yr lows, chasing 162β163 is poor asymmetry; dips to 160 are the trend side. Break 160 on real reallocation and soft CPI; 158/155 open. Watch JGB yields.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 898 |
| 15 |  EUR/USD Now Bounces Off Its One-Year Low Ahead of CPI
EURUSD is recovering from June's ~1.135 one-year low into the 1.140β1.145 demand zone β a second straight weekly gain.
The bid is partly real euro strength, not just a soft dollar. Markets price north of 30bps of further ECB tightening this year, a September hike in view plus a dollar easing on soft US jobs and lower oil/VIX/yields.
Cross-currents cut against it: a sustained oil bid is a euro headwind via Europe's energy imports, and French political risk (Le Pen's 2027 bid) adds noise. The main pivot would be US CPI Tuesday. A cool print fuels the rally, a hot one caps it.
The 1.140β1.145 zone is a risk-defined long off the range low, but 1.165 caps upside β a bounce, not a reversal, until reclaimed. Lose 1.140 on a hot CPI and firmer dollar, and ~1.135 returns.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 593 |
| 16 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When volume drops significantly during a pullback within an uptrend, what does this suggest? | 3 779 |
| 17 |  USD/CAD Analysis: Now Watching For Pullback Opportunities
USDCAD is easing slightly today. Just above the broken 1.408β1.413 shelf (former resistance, now support), the rising 200-day (~1.385) well below. Uptrend intact above the 200-day, but near the range top.
USD eased off the week's highs as USβIran attacks resumed and the tape turned risk-on: oil, VIX and yields all lower. Wednesday's FOMC minutes kept a 2026 hike on the table, division only on timing. That Fed openness is the dollar's underpin.
Oil cuts both ways: a sustained rise lifts CAD via terms-of-trade but also the USD via the Fed channel β lately USD has led. MUFG's Hardman: sustained oil gains "could reinforce the dollar's recent upward momentum."
Bias is buy-the-dip while the uptrend holds. A shallow dip to 1.408β1.413 is risk-defined but thin up here; a deeper flush to 1.390 where the 200 Day lies is the cleaner setup.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 774 |
| 18 |  USOIL Now Stalls at the 200-Day as Iran Risk Cools
USOIL is pressed on the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude jumped 4.4% yesterday (biggest since May) on renewed USβIran hostilities, US strikes, retaliation on US bases, and Hormuz refocused. Today it slipped below 73. Disruption scale is unclear: flows largely continue on Iran-approved routes, the Omani corridor barely used.
VIX is also lower, rejecting yesterday's 200-day SMA touch. Duration beats the peak: a spike leaves disinflation intact; only a sustained Hormuz closure reprices the inflation and Fed path.
The 200-day near 72 is the line. Close above on a lasting disruption opens 84β88. Reject here as flows normalize and VIX falls with it, and the downtrend resumes toward 68.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 624 |
| 19 | π Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Oil surged 6% on the ceasefire collapse while gold fell 1.65%. Why would gold drop during a geopolitical escalation? | 3 685 |
| 20 |  DXY Now: Fed Minutes Clash With a Fresh Oil Surge
DXY trades near 100.98 on confluence support: the ~100.5 demand zone and the rising trendline off the AprilβMay lows. 200 MA near 99 is dynamic support below price.
June FOMC minutes read hawkish: easing bias dropped, 9 of 18 dots project a hike this year, a few argued to hike now. But they were written against Iran de-escalation and falling oil. This week flipped that β Trump called the ceasefire "over," oil is bid, the update reads stale.
The price action after the minutes: DXY softened, oil pared from +6% to ~+2%, yields eased. DXYβrate correlation near 0.88 makes the dollar a derivative of Fed pricing, which hinges on oil. EdgeFinder cooled to Neutral from Very Bullish.
Oil is the pivot. Hold 100.5 with oil/yields re-firming and DXY targets 101.5β102.0. Oil cools and June's playbook resumes.
read the full article here.
β Alan | 3 663 |
