A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
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Learn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.
Show more📈 Analytical overview of Telegram channel A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures
Channel A1 TRADING | Indices, Commodities, Forex, Futures (@a1tradingfxanalysis) in the English language segment is an active participant. Currently, the community unites 43 371 subscribers, ranking 2 619 in the Economy & Finance category and 700 in the USA region.
📊 Audience metrics and dynamics
Since its creation on невідомо, the project has demonstrated rapid growth, gathering an audience of 43 371 subscribers.
According to the latest data from 12 July, 2026, the channel demonstrates stable activity. Although there has been a change in the number of participants by 746 over the last 30 days and by 15 over the last 24 hours, overall reach remains high.
- Verification status: Not verified
- Engagement rate (ER): The average audience engagement rate is 8.26%. Within the first 24 hours after publication, content typically collects 5.00% reactions from the total number of subscribers.
- Post reach: On average, each post receives 3 585 views. Within the first day, a publication typically gains 2 171 views.
- Reactions and interaction: The audience actively supports content: the average number of reactions per post is 26.
- Thematic interests: Content is focused on key topics such as inflation, alan, edgefinder, fed, ceasefire.
📝 Description and content policy
The author describes the resource as a platform for expressing subjective opinions:
“Learn to trade forex, indices, & commodities using simple, transparent fundamental strategies & realistic market approaches in our 100% free channel.”
Thanks to the high frequency of updates (latest data received on 13 July, 2026), the channel maintains relevance and a high level of publication reach. Analytics show that the audience actively interacts with content, making it an important point of influence in the Economy & Finance category.
43 371
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| Date | Subscriber Growth | Mentions | Channels | |
| 13 July | +7 | |||
| 12 July | +15 | |||
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| 08 July | +34 | |||
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| 06 July | +54 | |||
| 05 July | +13 | |||
| 04 July | +8 | |||
| 03 July | +29 | |||
| 02 July | +41 | |||
| 01 July | +72 |
Channel Posts
USD/JPY Now Erases the Yen Rally as Tokyo Walks It Back
USDJPY trades near 162.36, up 0.42%, back into the 162.5 to 163.0 resistance that capped it in early July.
Friday's yen rally has been retraced in full. Reuters reports Tokyo has no immediate plans to change GPIF target allocations, only to work within existing ranges. A government source conceded markets reacted more than expected.
GPIF is mandated to invest solely for beneficiaries and cannot deploy assets to advance policy goals. Verbal encouragement cannot compel flow. Only the rate differential moves this pair, so far. I think until there are tangible targets and a timeline, this remains a hopeful (idea) that can help bring Yen strength.
Forced buying was sand against the carry, and the market repriced it in one session. Chasing 162.5 to 163.0 near 40-year lows carries intervention risk. Dips toward 160.5 remain the trend side.
read the full article here.
— Alan
| 2 |  Gold Analysis: Buy or Sell? It's Easy.
Gold gets pressured and falls 2.8% to 4,005, the lowest since July 1. Price sits at the point of a descending triangle: the trendline off the February highs converges with the 3,880 to 4,050 demand zone. The 200-day near 4,450 sits above price as resistance.
Trump reinstated a naval blockade on Iran with a 20% levy on Hormuz cargo. Oil jumped 5%. Higher energy costs feed inflation, pushing the Fed higher for longer. FedWatch prices a 71% chance of a September hike.
Gold pays no coupon, so the real yield is the price. With US real yields near 2008 highs and hike odds climbing, the cost of holding bullion is rising. Geopolitical fear normally bids gold. Here the rate channel is overwhelming the haven channel.
Tomorrow's CPI is in focus. Hot CPI with oil and yields firm breaks the zone, opening 3,800 then 3,500. Cool CPI with oil tamed lifts price toward 4,250. Support is sand when the fundamentals are strong.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 883 |
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| 4 | No text... | 2 525 |
| 5 |  USD/JPY Now: Is Forced Buying Enough to Prop The Yen?
USDJPY is easing a bit after tagging 40-year highs. Uptrend intact: the 200-day (~157) is well below price as dynamic support.
Today's bounce is real yen strength, not dollar weakness — broad-based (EURJPY, GBPJPY lower) while DXY barely moved. FinMin Katayama wants pension giants like the $1.8T GPIF to make "substantially greater investments in Japanese financial assets."
But durability is the question. It's exploratory and there's no solidified no targets or timeline. The rate differential still drives the yen. US CPI Tuesday swings the USD leg.
Forced buying is sand against the carry unless it becomes sized, sustained flow and (or) BoJ rates move. Near 40-yr lows, chasing 162–163 is poor asymmetry; dips to 160 are the trend side. Break 160 on real reallocation and soft CPI; 158/155 open. Watch JGB yields.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 2 874 |
| 6 |  EUR/USD Now Bounces Off Its One-Year Low Ahead of CPI
EURUSD is recovering from June's ~1.135 one-year low into the 1.140–1.145 demand zone — a second straight weekly gain.
The bid is partly real euro strength, not just a soft dollar. Markets price north of 30bps of further ECB tightening this year, a September hike in view plus a dollar easing on soft US jobs and lower oil/VIX/yields.
Cross-currents cut against it: a sustained oil bid is a euro headwind via Europe's energy imports, and French political risk (Le Pen's 2027 bid) adds noise. The main pivot would be US CPI Tuesday. A cool print fuels the rally, a hot one caps it.
The 1.140–1.145 zone is a risk-defined long off the range low, but 1.165 caps upside — a bounce, not a reversal, until reclaimed. Lose 1.140 on a hot CPI and firmer dollar, and ~1.135 returns.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 2 658 |
| 7 | 🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When volume drops significantly during a pullback within an uptrend, what does this suggest? | 2 899 |
| 8 |  USD/CAD Analysis: Now Watching For Pullback Opportunities
USDCAD is easing slightly today. Just above the broken 1.408–1.413 shelf (former resistance, now support), the rising 200-day (~1.385) well below. Uptrend intact above the 200-day, but near the range top.
USD eased off the week's highs as US–Iran attacks resumed and the tape turned risk-on: oil, VIX and yields all lower. Wednesday's FOMC minutes kept a 2026 hike on the table, division only on timing. That Fed openness is the dollar's underpin.
Oil cuts both ways: a sustained rise lifts CAD via terms-of-trade but also the USD via the Fed channel — lately USD has led. MUFG's Hardman: sustained oil gains "could reinforce the dollar's recent upward momentum."
Bias is buy-the-dip while the uptrend holds. A shallow dip to 1.408–1.413 is risk-defined but thin up here; a deeper flush to 1.390 where the 200 Day lies is the cleaner setup.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 3 109 |
| 9 |  USOIL Now Stalls at the 200-Day as Iran Risk Cools
USOIL is pressed on the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude jumped 4.4% yesterday (biggest since May) on renewed US–Iran hostilities, US strikes, retaliation on US bases, and Hormuz refocused. Today it slipped below 73. Disruption scale is unclear: flows largely continue on Iran-approved routes, the Omani corridor barely used.
VIX is also lower, rejecting yesterday's 200-day SMA touch. Duration beats the peak: a spike leaves disinflation intact; only a sustained Hormuz closure reprices the inflation and Fed path.
The 200-day near 72 is the line. Close above on a lasting disruption opens 84–88. Reject here as flows normalize and VIX falls with it, and the downtrend resumes toward 68.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 2 898 |
| 10 | 🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Oil surged 6% on the ceasefire collapse while gold fell 1.65%. Why would gold drop during a geopolitical escalation? | 3 151 |
| 11 |  DXY Now: Fed Minutes Clash With a Fresh Oil Surge
DXY trades near 100.98 on confluence support: the ~100.5 demand zone and the rising trendline off the April–May lows. 200 MA near 99 is dynamic support below price.
June FOMC minutes read hawkish: easing bias dropped, 9 of 18 dots project a hike this year, a few argued to hike now. But they were written against Iran de-escalation and falling oil. This week flipped that — Trump called the ceasefire "over," oil is bid, the update reads stale.
The price action after the minutes: DXY softened, oil pared from +6% to ~+2%, yields eased. DXY–rate correlation near 0.88 makes the dollar a derivative of Fed pricing, which hinges on oil. EdgeFinder cooled to Neutral from Very Bullish.
Oil is the pivot. Hold 100.5 with oil/yields re-firming and DXY targets 101.5–102.0. Oil cools and June's playbook resumes.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 3 107 |
| 12 |  NZD/USD Now Jumps as RBNZ Hikes for First Time Since 2023
NZD/USD at 0.5706 on the weekly, up 0.48% today after the RBNZ raised its cash rate 25bps to 2.50%, its first hike since mid-2023, and flagged more likely. The 200-week SMA caps price near 0.5830.
The rate story is the driver. The RBNZ called further hikes "likely at upcoming meetings" but stressed timing is uncertain. Two of six members saw upside inflation risk; the rest, including Governor Breman, saw balance. Markets price a 60% chance of a September move and ~38bps by year-end.
Capital Economics reads a hike roughly every other meeting until the OCR peaks near 3.25%. NZ 2-year swaps rose to 3.37%, 10-year yields to 4.54% — still just under Treasuries after outperforming for three months.
The bounce faces real overhead supply. Until price reclaims 0.5800–0.5850, the weekly structure stays bearish. Support sits below near 0.5650, then the 0.5550 zone.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 2 969 |
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| 14 | 🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
When a macro surprise index trends positive for weeks then suddenly flattens, what does this shift often precede? | 3 185 |
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| 16 |  Gold Now Consolidates as Crucial FOMC Minutes Loom
Gold is nearly flat today, consolidating rather than reversing after last week's bounce. Price holds near the $4,000–$4,100 area as traders wait on tomorrow's FOMC minutes before committing.
The driver stays real yields. September hike odds are back to 58%, and renewed Gulf tension is nudging oil higher — which lifts inflation concerns and reinforces the higher-for-longer stance that pressures non-yielding gold. Trump renewed threats against Iran; Tehran says peace talks stall unless those threats are dropped.
The offsetting bid is official demand. China's central bank posted its largest monthly gold-reserve increase in over two and a half years in June — steady sovereign accumulation that cushions the downside even as rates weigh.
Tomorrow's minutes are the catalyst. Focus falls on the Fed's read of inflation and labor, and any internal divergence. Support sits at $4,000, resistance at $4,400.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 3 226 |
| 17 |  US 10Y Now Climbs as Decisive Fed Minutes Near
The US 10Y is at a two-week high, as a renewed rise in oil revived inflation concerns. Oil gained more than 2% after an LNG carrier was struck exiting the Strait of Hormuz — a reminder the Gulf security risk is not fully priced out.
The move partly reverses last week's decline. Soft June payrolls and downward revisions had scaled back hike bets; the oil-driven inflation impulse now nudges them back up. September hike odds sit at 58%, up from 56%.
Last week's labor weakness argues for lower yields; this week's oil rebound argues for higher. Tomorrow's FOMC Minutes will help clarify the big question. Are rates lower or higher from here?
If yields rise after the minutes, it signals restrictive policy ahead — dollar-supportive, gold-negative. If they fall, the labor-driven easing narrative resumes — dollar-negative, gold-positive.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 3 017 |
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| 19 | 🔔 Closing Bell - Question of the Day
Why is the 200 EMA considered one of the most widely watched moving averages? | 3 524 |
| 20 |  DXY Is Now Flirting With An Important Level
DXY is edging up to start the week but holding near a three-week low after its largest weekly decline since April.
The soft June payrolls report drove last week's drop, scaling back Fed hike bets. September odds sit at 56%, down from 64% pre-NFP. Oil at pre-conflict levels continues to ease the inflation side.
The counterweight is growth. Societe Generale notes the US is the only G-10 economy where 2026 growth forecasts have risen since January — a backdrop that keeps inflation above target and limits the case for cuts. ISM Services came in at 54 this morning, in line.
The setup is a standstill at 100.50. A hold with buyers stepping in confirms the break-and-retest and points higher. A break opens the 99.00 handle at the 200-day SMA. FOMC minutes this week are the next catalyst.
read the full article here.
— Alan | 3 415 |
