Demographics Now and Then

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Fearfully, there is no country in Europe that has truly addressed the demographic problem at its root. You see countries with very developed welfare states — the Scandinavian countries — and they face similar issues. Hungary spent enormous amounts of money on demographic policy, also for political reasons, and it largely failed. There was essentially a small increase in births for one year, and then births returned to a downward trend.

The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao is one of the only areas still significantly above replacement. Muslims may eventually rise to 10% of the population of the Philippines, Christians will certainly stay ~85% of believers.

Nigeria WILL NOT ever reach half a billion people let alone 1 billion as many once claimed. I’m starting to doubt it will ever even double to 450M. Once you factor in emigration, fast falling TFR in the mostly Christian south, & other factors a peak of 425M or less is likely. This is also true for the vast majority of Sub Saharan African countries. By 2100 Sub Saharan Africa will not have 4 billion people. It will have 2.1 billion people or less. & Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Namibia, & many others will already be deep in population decline. Nigeria has a population of absolutely no more than 232M in 2026 and probably less. The semi official estimates of 242 million cannot be trusted IMHO. The population could absolutely be as low as 225M still in 2026. That would not surprise me at all.

2026 is increasingly certain to be the year Indonesia falls below replacement level TFR. Also interestingly many Christian minority populations in the Muslim majority country have higher fertility rates than Muslims. Particularly the Papuans and Batak peoples have far higher TFRs than the overwhelmingly Muslim Javanese. The lowest TFR in Indonesia is held by Chinese Indonesians who are on sub 1.5.

Analysis published by the Guardian & UK Office for National Statistics revealed that the United Kingdom has reached a permanent demographic inversion with deaths outpacing births from 2026 onwards.  They project the UK population will peak in 2054 at 72.5M before declining. So the UK is predicted to see continued overall population growth over the next 28 years of natural population decline. 100% of UK population growth from here on out will be exclusively from immigration.

Ipsos has just published its highly anticipated Generational Report sounding the alarm about looming "Consumer Extinction," revealing that in five of the G7 global superpowers, deaths now officially outnumber births leading to a world with permanently fewer buyers.  Now that corporate profits are endangered policymakers many may pay more attention: https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-generations-report-2026-continuity-vs-rupture

Pro Natalist cash incentives without cultural change rarely yield sustained turnaround.  Programs like Poland’s Family 500+(dating to 2016),Italy’s 2020 Family Act(which included family allowances+subsidized childcare),& Singapore’s “Made for Family”, three of many that failed.

The most populous states in India by far are Uttar Pradesh & Bihar which have TFRs of 2.6 & 2.9. Uttar Pradesh has a far larger population that Brazil & Bihar has roughly the same population size as Mexico.

While population momentum will almost certainly get India to a peak of at least 1,625,000,000 billion people by 2050 after that year India starts its slow decline. India has seen TFR fall very modestly from 1.99 in 2019 to 1.88 in 2024. Urban TFR decline is the number to watch going forward. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2057351376192131166

Would not be suprised at all if Latin America & the Caribbean have a higher median age than North America before 2050. Asia almost certainly will.

At the intersection of American demographics & politics, we see the internal conflict within the GOP between MAGA & America First. MAGA is largely backed by boomers & Xers with AF backed by Millennials & Zoomers. Thus currently MAGA has upper hand but this could shift quickly. The Democrats face the exact same generational time bomb. Corporate Democrats backed by lobby groups & those in the electorate aged 50+ are still managing to see off young more left wing upstarts in most primaries. But this may not last much longer.

China’s senior population reached 15% in 2024 and is projected to climb to 22.8% by 2035. A demographic shift occurring twice as fast as it did in Western Europe. Also by 2035 South Korea’s population will be almost 30% age 65 or better (a massive jump from sub 20% today).

If population of government controlled Ukraine is really below 25 million & not~29 million as thought then the TFR of women inside Ukraine is far higher than 0.77, which is based on higher population assumption. Still really bad but not Taiwanese or Thai or Singaporean levels. But if Uliutin’s estimates are anywhere near correct (I have serious doubts about his 22-25 million low claims) then don’t see Ukraine ever bouncing back in a meaningful way. Will be very hard to coax even 30-45% of Ukrainians outside the country back postwar. With annual deaths in the country close to 500,000 annually, Ukraine cannot afford this. Many polls show no more than 43% of Ukrainians outside the country plan to return and this may be overstating things. Also many of those who returned so far have been age 45 plus. If even half of the men currently not allowed to leave Ukraine migrate to join their wives and children abroad postwar the country could lose at least another 250,000 working age people. With reconstruction labor needs above 1,000,000 people this would be a true disaster. https://x.com/leonidragozin/status/2053411797693092305

30-40% of all Ukrainian women of prime child bearing age (so ~2,900,000 total) are currently living outside Ukraine as of 2026. This is in addition to up to 40% of Ukraine’s “last chance cohort” born 2008-2013 living abroad as well. A perfect storm. https://sceeus.se/publikationer/ukraines-alarming-demographics/

By 2050 our planet of by then ~9.5 billion will be aged & on the cusp of global population decline. By the half century mark Europe & North America will be heavily aged,& Asia, Latam & Oceania won’t be far behind. Only Africa will see less than 18% of their population being 65+. It won’t be 5.84% but closer to 9% in all likelihood as TFR will drop faster than this predicts but it will be the only region have less than 10% of the population be 65+.

The low fertility rate of Sikhs in India (~1.55) is putting the Sikh majority in the only Sikh State in the country, Punjab, in doubt.  In fact, if current trends continue Punjab will be only ~42.5% Sikh and 47.5% Hindu by 2050. 

Latin America is one of the fastest aging places on earth. In less than 25 years almost a fifth of the population will be over age 65. With fertility falling like a rock from Argentina to Colombia to Costa Rica perhaps far sooner.

TFR of ethnic Chinese majority of Singapore now roughly equal to the catastrophic Taiwanese fertility rate. Q1 2026 ethnic Chinese Singaporean TFR on 0.64 against ~0.65 for Taiwan. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2051975072429043809

Deep population decline is right around the corner for China (10,000,000 plus annual decline in 2030s),Thailand (2040s), South Korea (late 2030s-2040s), Taiwan (2040s), Thailand (2040s),& much of Europe (2030s & 2040s). This will transform cities, towns, & rural areas worldwide.

The United States has more Spanish speakers than Spain and more than any other country except Mexico.