Demographics Now and Then

If China’s current sub 1.0 fertility rate becomes the baseline norm, six people will die for every single newborn in the country’s subsequent generations. China is effectively losing the sheer human mass required to sustain their domestic society & consumer economy…

For the 1st time in American history, U.S. birth rate for women aged 40–44 (at 12.7 per 1,000) has officially surpassed the teen birth rate ages 15–19 which is 12.6 per 1,000. In contrast to the highest birthing cohort (women aged 30-34) which is 93.7 per 1,000. Women aged 45-49 had a birth rate of just 1.1 per 1,000. Source CDC NVSS.

Laos is getting close to replacement & will likely be at or below it by 2030 along with Cambodia. Tiny East Timor will be the last one standing above replacement in Southeast Asia by 2030, & that is if they are very lucky. https://x.com/divideetimpera5/status/2076663191250092117?s=46

Iranian & Iraqi births steadily converging because of the catastrophic fall in Iranian births.  Even at current level of ~2.8 fertility rate of Iraq is roughly double that of Iran.  Yemen also likely to have more births than Iran soon despite having less than half the population.

Across Latam a major sociological shift has gained traction already common across much of the developed world, labeled the "humanization of pets." Across cities like Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Mexico City, younger generations are systematically replacing children with pets within their household budgets and life plans due to economic uncertainty and shifting reproductive choices. https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/birth_rates_fall/

In 2024 El Salvador’s fertility rate fell to just 1.4 with ~99,000 live births.  To put the 2024 figure into perspective, El Salvador's annual births peaked in 1989 at 182,182 births. The 2024 figure represents a nearly 46% decline from that historical high.  https://www.contrapunto.com.sv/la-fecundidad-ha-disminuido-en-el-salvador-en-los-ultimos-anos-apunta-censo-del-bcr/

Across Latam a major sociological shift has gained traction already common across much of the developed world, labeled the "humanization of pets." Across cities like Santiago, Buenos Aires, and Mexico City, younger generations are systematically replacing children with pets within their household budgets and life plans due to economic uncertainty and shifting reproductive choices. https://mezha.net/eng/bukvy/birth_rates_fall/

While the overall U.S. population under the age of 18 shrank by 2.4%, the American South completely defied the national trend by being the only region to see growth across every single age group & expanding its under 18 cohort by 1.1%.  One part of the reason being that regulations encourage affordability there for young Americans starting out in their careers. https://fortune.com/2026/06/26/census-boomer-demographics-median-age-2025/

🇬🇧 👴 The CSJ officially designated July 1, 2026, as "Death Day" in the United Kingdom marking the exact structural threshold where the number of annual deaths outpaced live births in England and Wales. ONS projects 450,000 more deaths than births over the next decade. https://www.yahoo.com/news/us/articles/deaths-outnumber-births-first-time-135018879.html

🇹🇭 🧓 Thailand is in huge demographic trouble today.  Thailand has officially transitioned into a super-aged society, with over 20% of its population now over the age of 60.  The country possesses one of the highest household debt-to-GDP ratios in Asia (climbing past 90%).  ~1/3rd of elderly Thais currently live below the poverty line.  Their TFR is sub 0.90.

🇹🇼 👶 Taiwan is having an awful year. Births down almost 16% in the Jan-May reporting period year on year. That puts the fertility rate below 0.65 & if this trend continues births could be below 100,000 for the first time ever. This would be less than 25% of 1982 births in 2026.

Lebanese fertility rates not great. Every major religious group below replacement. Would estimate Christian TFR as a whole is ~1.5 (Maronite, Orthodox, etc), Sunni is on ~1.7 & Shia ~1.8. Druze are as low as 1.6. In Beirut TFR could be sub 1.0 already. High emigration rates exacerbate their situation too.

Excellent estimate of fertility rates by ethnic group in Germany. While all saw substantial fall in TFR only those from Asia (likely overwhelmingly Southwest & South Asia not East Asia), & Africa are at or above replacement. Africa dramatically so at 2.60 (⬇️ from 2.78). https://x.com/ar_demografie/status/2072381411659534685

Because total Chinese births plummeted by over 50% in less than a decade, dropping to just 7.92 million in 2025 compared to ~18 million in 2016, the number of people entering their prime home-buying years (ages 25–35) will drop off a cliff in the 2040s. So many Chinese have their wealth tied up in property that this will be disastrous for many middle class couples relying on said property for retirement. What a mess… https://rhg.com/research/chinas-demographic-future/

While Uzbekistan’s population growth will moderate considerably, consolidation of the titular nations dominance will continue. Ethnic Uzbeks went from 71% of their country in 1989 to ~90% in 2026! By 2050 they will be almost 50M strong & over 90% Uzbek. Kazakhs in KZ more dramatic going from under 40% to 71.5%. https://x.com/masagget/status/2072700260066250979

The principal demographic difference explaining the much higher Israeli fertility rate compared to its immediate neighbors is the Haredi. There are no ultra high TFR sects in most of the Arab world. Without the Haredi, Israeli TFR would be ~2.45 or so. Close to Egypt or Jordan. Without the Haredi & Arab TFRs included Israeli TFR would be closer to 2.3. Still far higher than Lebanon but lower than Egypt, Jordan, & Syria. However, these 3 nations are seeing far faster drops in TFR than the non Haredi non Arab Jewish population of Israel.

The TFR of Evangelical Brazilians is way higher than that of Catholics at 1.74 vs 1.49.  Women from African derived religions (Umbanda and Candomblé) see a TFR of just 1.25, Spiritual women just 1.01, and (very surprisingly) women with no religion at all have a relatively strong 1.47 TFR.  Filtering by education women with complete higher education had the lowest TFR of 1.19 child per woman.  Compared to women with incomplete or primary education only at 2.01.  Looking at Brazilian fertility rates by race whites were on 1.35, Black Brazilians 1.59, the Pardo/Brown majority 1.68, Amarela/East Asian 1.22, and Indigenous 2.84. Source: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/43856-2022-census-shows-a-country-with-less-children-and-less-mothers

"Young Latin America" narrative is a dated macroeconomic myth. Latam hitting demographic wall, fertility rates across Brazil,Mexico,& Colombia have fallen far below replacement. By 2040s, Mexico will transform into net absorber of Central American labor to feed nearshoring boom. This is the absolute liquidation of the Latam labor dividend.  The "Northern Triangle" labor reservoir is also drying up in real-time.  El Salvador below 1.5, Honduras ~2.0, Guatemala ~1.8, Nicaragua ~1.95. 

Between 2020 and 2024, enrollment in Chinese kindergartens plummeted by 25%, a loss of 12 million children. This has forced the immediate & permanent closure of over 41,500 preschools across the country. https://www.ft.com/content/82717007-c918-48da-878e-1bede9b4c495?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Italy is arguably ground zero for school-age contraction in Western Europe & is on track to lose a staggering million pupils over the coming decade. Between 2026 and 2030, the school-age population is actively dropping by roughly 110,000 students each year.  https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/empty-classrooms-10-years-italy-will-lose-1-million-pupils-AHCa4QAC