Demographics Now and Then

In 2023, Canada had the highest proportion of births to foreign-born mothers (39.3%), followed by Australia (36.5%). The U.S. is in the middle (30.7%), while the lowest proportion among the selected countries was in the Netherlands (21.3%), closely followed by Denmark (21.9%).

But while Latam immigration slows in the 2030s (it will still be large as these societies will keep sending until they hollow out) lawmakers & business elites will search for ways to replace this flow. In some ways it is already happening. If “mainstream” politicians opt for a Canada style immigration arrangement the U.S. could see an influx of 1,000,000 a year from the subcontinent alone by 2035.

There is basically no way El Salvador can continue sending tens of thousands of migrants annually, also in less than a decade Guatemala may be in the same situation. In addition, Mexico will also be able to pay Central American immigrants higher salaries which will dissuade the massive numbers we saw in the early 2000s and early 2020s.

The Central American fertility collapse has been incredibly fast and its implications will be huge. Guatemala fell from almost 3.0 TFR a decade ago to ⬇️ 1.8 today, in that same timeframe Panama went from 2.5 to 1.8, Nicaragua from~2.5 to 1.9, El Salvador 2.2 to 1.4, Honduras to sub replacement, & Costa Rica to ⬇️1.2. It looks like this decline may deepen further and this is at a time when every Latam country is now below replacement (including Paraguay and Bolivia).

In the 1980s, ~65% of conservative women & 60% of liberal women aged 25-35 were parents. By the mid-2020s, the number of liberal women with kids in the same age bracket had plummeted to just 40% while young conservative women with children rose slightly to 71%, a 31% motherhood gap based strictly on political identity.

Migration mainly can kicking as we see when even mass migration counties (U.S., UK, & Canada) seem set to slip into natural decline. France, Netherlands, & many others already have. As natural decline increases so does call for ever more migration to balance the fiscal books. Not sustainable.

Germany only has 3,619,000 people under age 5 living in the country (approximately 1.5M of whom have a migrant background versus 2.075M without). This compares to roughly 4,750,000 ages 65-69 (approximately 750,000 with a migrant background & 4,000,000 without). https://x.com/shifty_coffee/status/2043704317895405690

South Korean TFR will almost certainly be above 1.0 this year. The comeback cohort born from 1991-1995 is having more kids & is increasing the fertility rate to a near decade high (last above 1.0 in 2017). Welcome news indeed especially as TFR was just 0.721 in 2023. South Korean TFR trajectory now exceeding UNs ‘optimistic’ projection & getting to 1.18 by 2030 is seen as less and less unlikely. Still the Korean Zoomer cohort is so destroyed compared to late millennial that births will go down 2030 onwards even if the TFR increase continues. https://x.com/andyd10/status/2059531979167568028

He is correct. No European country has come close to bringing TFR back to replacement after falling below 1.5 TFR. Czechia got TFR back to 1.81 briefly, Romania too, but it was fleeting. Both are now below 1.5 again.

Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis:

Fearfully, there is no country in Europe that has truly addressed the demographic problem at its root. You see countries with very developed welfare states — the Scandinavian countries — and they face similar issues. Hungary spent enormous amounts of money on demographic policy, also for political reasons, and it largely failed. There was essentially a small increase in births for one year, and then births returned to a downward trend.

The Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao is one of the only areas still significantly above replacement. Muslims may eventually rise to 10% of the population of the Philippines, Christians will certainly stay ~85% of believers.

Nigeria WILL NOT ever reach half a billion people let alone 1 billion as many once claimed. I’m starting to doubt it will ever even double to 450M. Once you factor in emigration, fast falling TFR in the mostly Christian south, & other factors a peak of 425M or less is likely. This is also true for the vast majority of Sub Saharan African countries. By 2100 Sub Saharan Africa will not have 4 billion people. It will have 2.1 billion people or less. & Kenya, South Africa, Ghana, Namibia, & many others will already be deep in population decline. Nigeria has a population of absolutely no more than 232M in 2026 and probably less. The semi official estimates of 242 million cannot be trusted IMHO. The population could absolutely be as low as 225M still in 2026. That would not surprise me at all.

2026 is increasingly certain to be the year Indonesia falls below replacement level TFR. Also interestingly many Christian minority populations in the Muslim majority country have higher fertility rates than Muslims. Particularly the Papuans and Batak peoples have far higher TFRs than the overwhelmingly Muslim Javanese. The lowest TFR in Indonesia is held by Chinese Indonesians who are on sub 1.5.

Analysis published by the Guardian & UK Office for National Statistics revealed that the United Kingdom has reached a permanent demographic inversion with deaths outpacing births from 2026 onwards.  They project the UK population will peak in 2054 at 72.5M before declining. So the UK is predicted to see continued overall population growth over the next 28 years of natural population decline. 100% of UK population growth from here on out will be exclusively from immigration.

Ipsos has just published its highly anticipated Generational Report sounding the alarm about looming "Consumer Extinction," revealing that in five of the G7 global superpowers, deaths now officially outnumber births leading to a world with permanently fewer buyers.  Now that corporate profits are endangered policymakers many may pay more attention: https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-generations-report-2026-continuity-vs-rupture

Pro Natalist cash incentives without cultural change rarely yield sustained turnaround.  Programs like Poland’s Family 500+(dating to 2016),Italy’s 2020 Family Act(which included family allowances+subsidized childcare),& Singapore’s “Made for Family”, three of many that failed.

The most populous states in India by far are Uttar Pradesh & Bihar which have TFRs of 2.6 & 2.9. Uttar Pradesh has a far larger population that Brazil & Bihar has roughly the same population size as Mexico.

While population momentum will almost certainly get India to a peak of at least 1,625,000,000 billion people by 2050 after that year India starts its slow decline. India has seen TFR fall very modestly from 1.99 in 2019 to 1.88 in 2024. Urban TFR decline is the number to watch going forward. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2057351376192131166

Would not be suprised at all if Latin America & the Caribbean have a higher median age than North America before 2050. Asia almost certainly will.

At the intersection of American demographics & politics, we see the internal conflict within the GOP between MAGA & America First. MAGA is largely backed by boomers & Xers with AF backed by Millennials & Zoomers. Thus currently MAGA has upper hand but this could shift quickly. The Democrats face the exact same generational time bomb. Corporate Democrats backed by lobby groups & those in the electorate aged 50+ are still managing to see off young more left wing upstarts in most primaries. But this may not last much longer.