Demographics Now and Then

The TFR of Evangelical Brazilians is way higher than that of Catholics at 1.74 vs 1.49.  Women from African derived religions (Umbanda and Candomblé) see a TFR of just 1.25, Spiritual women just 1.01, and (very surprisingly) women with no religion at all have a relatively strong 1.47 TFR.  Filtering by education women with complete higher education had the lowest TFR of 1.19 child per woman.  Compared to women with incomplete or primary education only at 2.01.  Looking at Brazilian fertility rates by race whites were on 1.35, Black Brazilians 1.59, the Pardo/Brown majority 1.68, Amarela/East Asian 1.22, and Indigenous 2.84. Source: https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-news/2184-news-agency/news/43856-2022-census-shows-a-country-with-less-children-and-less-mothers

"Young Latin America" narrative is a dated macroeconomic myth. Latam hitting demographic wall, fertility rates across Brazil,Mexico,& Colombia have fallen far below replacement. By 2040s, Mexico will transform into net absorber of Central American labor to feed nearshoring boom. This is the absolute liquidation of the Latam labor dividend.  The "Northern Triangle" labor reservoir is also drying up in real-time.  El Salvador below 1.5, Honduras ~2.0, Guatemala ~1.8, Nicaragua ~1.95. 

Between 2020 and 2024, enrollment in Chinese kindergartens plummeted by 25%, a loss of 12 million children. This has forced the immediate & permanent closure of over 41,500 preschools across the country. https://www.ft.com/content/82717007-c918-48da-878e-1bede9b4c495?syn-25a6b1a6=1

Italy is arguably ground zero for school-age contraction in Western Europe & is on track to lose a staggering million pupils over the coming decade. Between 2026 and 2030, the school-age population is actively dropping by roughly 110,000 students each year.  https://en.ilsole24ore.com/art/empty-classrooms-10-years-italy-will-lose-1-million-pupils-AHCa4QAC

If current demographic trajectories hold, East Asian societies will produce only 45 future daughters, & only 20 future granddaughters, for every 100 women of childbearing age today (with Japan being the most fertile East Asian country at just 1.13 TFR).  https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/WP-Will-Nothing-Stop-the-Incredible-Global-Birth-Crash-2026.pdf

Islands of Italy, France, & Spain have stunningly bad fertility rates below lowest low. Sardinia (0.91), Canary Islands (0.82), Balearic Islands (including Mallorca, at 1.08), Corsica (~1.21), Sicily (the outlier at 1.27 much better than Italian average though still lowest low).

Total demographic destruction of 100M strong Manchuria in progress. The three provinces making it up (Heilongjiang, Jilin, & Liaoning) have TFRs of 0.56-0.68 so well below Taiwan, Thailand, or South Korea. Crumbling before our eyes by shrinking to 9M in 2 generations (by 2085).

Lets discuss China’s so called “curse of 35” or 35sui weiji/35岁危机 & its impact on Chinese demographics.  35sui weiji is when white-collar,tech,& finance workers over age 35 are systematically targeted for layoffs & excluded from new job listings due to a hyper-saturated labor market favoring cheaper,younger graduates who can endure grueling "996" work schedules (9AM-9PM six days a week). It is difficult to overstate the problem. Female millennial workers experience double discrimination under this curse (suffering from ageism and maternal discrimination).  This obviously serves as a brake on family formation as taking maternity leave is widely viewed by young professionals as a form of career suicide. These workers in their 30s are also often expected to pull a 4-2-1 if they have children.  That means supporting 2 sets of elderly parents as well as their own child or children.  A layoff thus obviously stops family expansion and in some cases limits formation.  It’s ironic, on the one hand, Beijing is introducing tax cuts,housing subsidies,& cash payouts to incentivize couples to have more children. On the other,state-sanctioned "996" corporate culture forces these same couples to choose between having a family or maintaining employment past their mid-30s.

According to the South Korean Ministry of Data and Statistics & the Ministry of Education, there was a 6.5% increase in teenage student suicides in South Korea in 2025 &,the highest annual number on record. Over the past decade, youth suicide deaths have risen by 45.1%,from 273 in 2016 to 396 in 2025. This is occurring as the number of students are falling to the lowest levels in South Korean history. Source: https://www.asiae.co.kr/en/article/education/2026060914173180078

EU births likely fell below 3,500,000 last year. They’re likely to fall further this year across the bloc.  US births look set to be higher than EU for third year in a row in 2026.  Fertility rate of EU has now been below replacement for 50 years.  Current EU wide TFR is~1.35.

Taiwan only saw 107,812 births last year.  That is significantly less than the 119,107 births the island saw in 1906 when they only had 3,000,000 inhabitants (vs 23M today).  A TFR of 0.695 is running the country down real fast.  Natural decline was nearly 100,000 last year. The 23,300,000 population will begin declining apace (even when accounting for immigration) by the 2030s unless TFR increases substantially (they would likely need more than a South Korean 2025-2026 sized recovery).

Incredibly high population density makes high TFR less sustainable. Bangladesh is the size of Iowa (population 3.2M) with a population above 170M & Uttar Pradesh is the size of Oregon (population 4.3M) and has more than 240M people.

Interesting, according to Statistics Canada 42% of Canadian newborns have a foreign-born mother. In addition, nearly 53% of Canadian-born women aged 20 to 49 are childless, compared to 44.6% of foreign-born/“landed immigrant” (SC wording) women. One of the main things the “childless” category tells us is that Canadian born women are having children later. Many of the 47% in the early years of the 20-49 group will obviously have children in the years to come. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260126/dq260126a-eng.htm

Ipsos published its Generational Report on looming "Consumer Extinction”. In 5 of G7 economic powers, deaths officially outnumber births leading to world w/permanently fewer buyers.  As corporate profits now endangered policymakers may pay more attention: https://www.ipsos.com/en/ipsos-generations-report-2026-continuity-vs-rupture

China’s future economic contraction will obviously slow the global economy enormously. Crashing of fertility rates to sub 1.0 in China,South Korea,Taiwan,& Singapore already impacting East Asian growth but will become far more pronounced in 2030s which is just around the corner.

It is interesting that the places in India with the highest fertility rates are the states with the largest populations that are also amongst the most densely populated. Indo-Gangetic Plain states of UP & Bihar have a combined population far larger than that of the entire U.S.

Source: https://mainichi.jp/english/articles/20240913/p2a/00m/0na/025000c

The reason Japan has a much higher fertility rate than South Korea or Singapore or Taiwan or China is because of women like this (the one in the post below just celebrated the birth of her 7th child). 22% of married Japanese couples have three or more children (3-5X more than in China, Taiwan, South Korea, or Singapore). 3.2% have four or more. https://x.com/hashimotokotoe/status/2062080244975284456

Thailand has a TFR that is lower than South Korea this year (estimated at sub 0.80 as of May 2026) despite having a GDP Per Capita (PPP) 60% lower. Thailand almost certain to get old before it gets rich.

In 2023, Canada had the highest proportion of births to foreign-born mothers (39.3%), followed by Australia (36.5%). The U.S. is in the middle (30.7%), while the lowest proportion among the selected countries was in the Netherlands (21.3%), closely followed by Denmark (21.9%).