Demographics Now and Then
Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments
نمایش بیشتر1 995
مشترکین
اطلاعاتی وجود ندارد24 ساعت
-27 روز
+16230 روز
توزیع زمان ارسال
در حال بارگیری داده...
Find out who reads your channel
This graph will show you who besides your subscribers reads your channel and learn about other sources of traffic.
تجزیه و تحلیل انتشار
| پست ها | بازدید ها | به اشتراک گذاشته شده | ديناميک بازديد ها |
01 Wanted to do a quick post on South Asian TFR trends. Sri Lanka (headed to sub 1.5) & Nepal (~1.9?) are now sub replacement. India obviously is as well. Bangladesh is just above (~2.2) while Pakistan is comfortably above replacement. Bhutan is below replacement (~1.7? guess). | 1 212 | 7 | Loading... |
02 By the 2030s there will not be any countries in the Americas with replacement level fertility. Nicaragua, Honduras, Panama, the DR, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname, Bolivia & Paraguay well on track to fall below 2.1 in less than a decade. By 2060 almost all nations will see decline. | 741 | 23 | Loading... |
03 Population forecasts for most of the worlds countries will be reduced again and again as models catch up with the reality of rapidly falling fertility in the developing world. Nigeria will have less than 500M people by 2100, Bangladesh less than 150M, Mexico less than 115M. | 1 681 | 33 | Loading... |
04 Ethnic Korean minorities have a TFR lower than the national TFR in Japan, China & the US. In China for Chaoxianzu it is even lower than South Korean National TFR (0.63 vs 0.72) & much lower than PRC TFR (1.05). In the US it is 1.2 for Ethnic Koreans vs 1.6 for national TFR. | 925 | 15 | Loading... |
05 To the Chinese government’s credit they are trying hard to fix property prices and just bought up $42 billion worth of apartments to turn into affordable housing. If this is targeted to young couples it should make at least some positive difference.
https://t.co/WnKm90rkM9 | 1 501 | 16 | Loading... |
06 China’s generation born in the 1990s & 2000s is having a rough time of it. Youth unemployment is high with University skills not matching up with employer demand with non factory jobs relatively scarce for graduates, property prices are still punishing,& many youth are giving up. | 1 342 | 25 | Loading... |
07 The US is unique among major developed countries in its large Generation Z cohort. Many European countries have large boomer, Gen X and even older millennial cohorts but much smaller Zoomer cohorts. This is particularly true for South Korea, Germany, China, Italy, & Spain. | 1 325 | 18 | Loading... |
08 However individualism, consumerism, and materialism may be peaking. There is a chance this could lead some young people to embrace religion again in a search for greater meaning. | 1 184 | 9 | Loading... |
09 More than 1/3rd of Americans between age 30-39 brought up in Christian households no longer identify as Christian. Pew Research estimates that if current trends continue the non religious could become the majority in the U.S. as early as 2055. | 1 438 | 20 | Loading... |
10 More than 1/3rd of Americans between age 30-39 brought up in Christian households no longer identify as Christian. Pew Research estimates that if current trends continue the non religious could become the majority in the U.S. as early as 2055. | 1 | 0 | Loading... |
11 Demographics are behind much of the fall. A majority of mainline Christians are over 50 & 1/3 age 65+. Only 1 in 10 are under 30. Thus natural decline in many congregations is massive. Sadly many more beautiful churches/cultural monuments will be abandoned: | 1 470 | 22 | Loading... |
12 Mainline US Christian denominations are shrinking at an alarming rate. Between 2010-2020 Episcopalians & Methodists fell by 19% each, Lutherans by 25%, & Presbyterians by ~40%. Overall American Christians have fallen from 90% (in 1972) to 64% (today):
https://t.co/2jljFJGr48 | 1 340 | 23 | Loading... |
13 Azerbaijan following Türkiye into demographic oblivion long term. Kazakhstan & Uzbekistan are the only Turkic nations with any real positive long term demographic future. Kyrgyzstan & Turkmenistan have too much emigration as a % of population to say the same.
https://x.com/masagget/status/1791066379434500219 | 1 218 | 16 | Loading... |
14 Much of Eastern Europe is home to massive “depopulation deadzones”. These are mostly rural areas or smaller & medium sized towns & cities. Urban areas mostly continue to grow. Denser urban areas decrease TFR even more if done incorrectly. What happens next is almost foretold.
Most of the growth on this map is due to mass immigration & some internal migration. Very little of the growth is due to decent demographics or fertility rates. Even France has already been below replacement for four decades. | 7 763 | 118 | Loading... |
15 It’s not unlikely that births in the United States in 2024 could come in at ~3,635,000 or less based on first quarter numbers. This would leave TFR at just 1.6 as this is an extremely small increase when considering the likely massive levels of undocumented immigration.
There were also 1.1% more days in Q1 2024 than Q1 2023 so the picture is worse and we could potentially see another year of sub 3.6 million births and a TFR below 1.6 if this trend continues or accelerates throughout the year. | 1 511 | 7 | Loading... |
16 Macao is the true trailblazer on how low TFR can go in an entire territory or country. The Special Administrative Region hit sub 0.60 TFR last year & births are down another 13% in the 1st quarter of 2024. Just 856 births. TFR may move below 0.55 even as Dragon births kick in. | 1 780 | 26 | Loading... |
17 This is a disastrous population revision for the US but one that simply reflects the reality of trends showing plummeting TFR. A United States of sub 375M is in for a rough road ahead,especially considering the consumer spending driven nature of our economy. A Yeltsinesque turn. | 59 326 | 290 | Loading... |
18 As the already highly taxed countries of Finland, Austria, Spain,Germany,Italy,& Portugal become extremely aged societies there’s no good way for them to deal with⬆️pension costs. Voters will punish them for cutting benefits/raising retirement age but little room to raise taxes.
Finland has lowest low TFR as does Spain+Italy. UK just plunged below 1.5. Sweden has also just joined that club. In fact that is where most of the EU (bar France) currently sits. It is in the Europe’s existential interest to increase birth rates & they must try everything. | 55 186 | 541 | Loading... |
19 South Korea’s workforce is projected to shrink by almost 10 million by 2044. It will fall from 36.57M in 2023 to just 27.17M in 2044. South Korea will no longer be an economic powerhouse but their offshoring will provide opportunities for many.
https://t.co/1XFCPDvYmO | 2 188 | 24 | Loading... |
20 The capital of Mozambique is already at replacement level TFR. This is happening to all of sub Saharan Africa. The continent will be at or below replacement by 2060. | 3 547 | 55 | Loading... |
21 In Taiwan next year only~200K. people will be entering the labor force while 400K minimum will be taking a pension. In South Korea next year 450K maximum will enter the labor force while~900K will be taking their pension. Economic engines of Asian Tiger Economy sputtering out. | 2 499 | 38 | Loading... |
22 While Brazilian births for 2023 are likely to be adjusted upwards by~170,000 the country may still have seen the lowest number of births since the early 1950s. Final births could come in at just below 2.6M. This is likely due to plummeting mixed race & black Brazilian TFR.
As you can see only about half of December’s births have been recorded and around 50-70,000 more from other months in the last quarter of the year will probably trickle in during the coming months as well. | 8 545 | 31 | Loading... |
23 50%+of US counties lost population between 2010 & 2020. This decline looks set to continue for a while as people consolidate in counties with jobs,entertainment,& decent schools. Growth will be in the arid Southwest while much of the fall will be in the South, East, & Midwest. | 2 202 | 33 | Loading... |
24 Biden accused Japan,China,& Russia of Xenophobia due to their lack of mass immigration. He also stated that a lack of immigration “hurts them economically”. His statements downplay the very real social risks leaders in those countries face from mass migration with very low TFR.
https://t.co/E6jBIPMoit | 14 762 | 115 | Loading... |
25 There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part to a cultural & political disconnect.
Pro natalism is seen by many young people as unappealing & anathema to their political beliefs. They must be won over to the natalist cause if there are to be substantial future generations. Otherwise expect more countries to fall to Polish or Spanish fertility rate levels. | 2 232 | 15 | Loading... |
26 Transnistria is melting away. The small breakaway Republic is now seeing only ~2,500 births a year. It’s population has fallen to well under half a million. With its current rate of population decline it will have only ~350,000 people by 2060. It had more than 660K in 1998. | 2 317 | 20 | Loading... |
27 Extended Scandinavia is having a tough demographic time. TFR in the core nations of Norway, Denmark, & Sweden have all fallen to~1.5 or below. In Finland TFR is at lowest low below 1.3. In Iceland (previously with one of the highest fertility rates in Europe) TFR has fallen to sub 1.6. | 1 943 | 18 | Loading... |
28 Still stunned that births in Czechia fell by more than 11% last year to just 91,149. That’s the first time births were below 100,000 annually in almost two decades. TFR fell from one of Europe’s highest levels (1.83) in 2021 to sub 1.5 in 2023. | 2 065 | 17 | Loading... |
29 ✝️ 🇺🇸 🐣 “The 17 states with the highest general fertility rates are all designated by Cook Political Report as Republican, or GOP-leaning, including such Republican strongholds as North Dakota, Nebraska, Louisiana, Utah, and Texas.”
🔶️ “By contrast, the bottom six states—and nine of the ten states with the lowest fertility rates—are all either Democratic or Democratic-leaning.”
🔶️ “Others near the bottom include Rhode Island, Oregon, Massachusetts, Washington, and California. Only two Democratic states have birthrates above the national average, compared with 20 Republican states with above-average fertility.”
https://www.city-journal.org/article/baby-blues | 1 682 | 21 | Loading... |
30 Bad news for Hungarian births. 2024 off to a terrible start with an almost 10% fall in births during the January-March 2024 reporting period compared to the same time last year. TFR may fall below 1.4 this year (a decade low).
The pro-natalist center of Eastern Europe takes a heavy blow. | 1 797 | 24 | Loading... |
31 To have a possible TFR of just 2.27 and so many excess deaths is a disaster for Syria. Same for Libya with a TFR of 1.90. Both these countries future seems to have been stripped away by war and a terrible demographic downturn (including high emigration due to the wars). | 8 531 | 55 | Loading... |
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
Wanted to do a quick post on South Asian TFR trends. Sri Lanka (headed to sub 1.5) & Nepal (~1.9?) are now sub replacement. India obviously is as well. Bangladesh is just above (~2.2) while Pakistan is comfortably above replacement. Bhutan is below replacement (~1.7? guess).
🔥 17🥰 7👍 5😢 3💩 3👏 1😍 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
By the 2030s there will not be any countries in the Americas with replacement level fertility. Nicaragua, Honduras, Panama, the DR, Haiti, Guyana, Suriname, Bolivia & Paraguay well on track to fall below 2.1 in less than a decade. By 2060 almost all nations will see decline.
🫡 28👍 5😢 4🤔 3👌 3🥰 1😍 1👻 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
Population forecasts for most of the worlds countries will be reduced again and again as models catch up with the reality of rapidly falling fertility in the developing world. Nigeria will have less than 500M people by 2100, Bangladesh less than 150M, Mexico less than 115M.
👍 36🤣 8🤔 3😢 3❤ 1🔥 1😁 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
Ethnic Korean minorities have a TFR lower than the national TFR in Japan, China & the US. In China for Chaoxianzu it is even lower than South Korean National TFR (0.63 vs 0.72) & much lower than PRC TFR (1.05). In the US it is 1.2 for Ethnic Koreans vs 1.6 for national TFR.
🤔 26👏 5😢 5👍 1❤ 1🔥 1
To the Chinese government’s credit they are trying hard to fix property prices and just bought up $42 billion worth of apartments to turn into affordable housing. If this is targeted to young couples it should make at least some positive difference.
https://t.co/WnKm90rkM9
China pledges $42 billion in a slew of measures to support the struggling property sector
Chinese authorities on Friday pledged new support for state-owned enterprises to enable them to buy unsold apartments.
👍 20🤣 11❤ 6🥴 2🔥 1🤔 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
China’s generation born in the 1990s & 2000s is having a rough time of it. Youth unemployment is high with University skills not matching up with employer demand with non factory jobs relatively scarce for graduates, property prices are still punishing,& many youth are giving up.
👌 17😢 8🤣 7🤔 3🥴 2🔥 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
The US is unique among major developed countries in its large Generation Z cohort. Many European countries have large boomer, Gen X and even older millennial cohorts but much smaller Zoomer cohorts. This is particularly true for South Korea, Germany, China, Italy, & Spain.
🤔 21👍 3🔥 2🤮 1🌚 1🤣 1
However individualism, consumerism, and materialism may be peaking. There is a chance this could lead some young people to embrace religion again in a search for greater meaning.
🙏 54🤣 11👍 5👎 2😁 1🤔 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
More than 1/3rd of Americans between age 30-39 brought up in Christian households no longer identify as Christian. Pew Research estimates that if current trends continue the non religious could become the majority in the U.S. as early as 2055.
😨 22👎 11👏 7😁 6🔥 1🎉 1
Photo unavailableShow in Telegram
More than 1/3rd of Americans between age 30-39 brought up in Christian households no longer identify as Christian. Pew Research estimates that if current trends continue the non religious could become the majority in the U.S. as early as 2055.