Demographics Now and Then

This is a disastrous population revision for the US but one that simply reflects the reality of trends showing plummeting TFR. A United States of sub 375M is in for a rough road ahead,especially considering the consumer spending driven nature of our economy. A Yeltsinesque turn.

As the already highly taxed countries of Finland, Austria, Spain,Germany,Italy,& Portugal become extremely aged societies there’s no good way for them to deal with⬆️pension costs. Voters will punish them for cutting benefits/raising retirement age but little room to raise taxes. Finland has lowest low TFR as does Spain+Italy. UK just plunged below 1.5. Sweden has also just joined that club. In fact that is where most of the EU (bar France) currently sits. It is in the Europe’s existential interest to increase birth rates & they must try everything.

South Korea’s workforce is projected to shrink by almost 10 million by 2044. It will fall from 36.57M in 2023 to just 27.17M in 2044. South Korea will no longer be an economic powerhouse but their offshoring will provide opportunities for many. https://t.co/1XFCPDvYmO

The capital of Mozambique is already at replacement level TFR. This is happening to all of sub Saharan Africa. The continent will be at or below replacement by 2060.

In Taiwan next year only~200K. people will be entering the labor force while 400K minimum will be taking a pension. In South Korea next year 450K maximum will enter the labor force while~900K will be taking their pension. Economic engines of Asian Tiger Economy sputtering out.

While Brazilian births for 2023 are likely to be adjusted upwards by~170,000 the country may still have seen the lowest number of births since the early 1950s. Final births could come in at just below 2.6M. This is likely due to plummeting mixed race & black Brazilian TFR. As you can see only about half of December’s births have been recorded and around 50-70,000 more from other months in the last quarter of the year will probably trickle in during the coming months as well.

50%+of US counties lost population between 2010 & 2020. This decline looks set to continue for a while as people consolidate in counties with jobs,entertainment,& decent schools. Growth will be in the arid Southwest while much of the fall will be in the South, East, & Midwest.

Biden accused Japan,China,& Russia of Xenophobia due to their lack of mass immigration. He also stated that a lack of immigration “hurts them economically”. His statements downplay the very real social risks leaders in those countries face from mass migration with very low TFR. https://t.co/E6jBIPMoit

There is a huge problem with the political polarization of fertility in the United States+other western countries. TFR has plummeted so far recently in Poland, the UK, Spain & many other countries due at least in part to a cultural & political disconnect. Pro natalism is seen by many young people as unappealing & anathema to their political beliefs. They must be won over to the natalist cause if there are to be substantial future generations. Otherwise expect more countries to fall to Polish or Spanish fertility rate levels.

Transnistria is melting away. The small breakaway Republic is now seeing only ~2,500 births a year. It’s population has fallen to well under half a million. With its current rate of population decline it will have only ~350,000 people by 2060. It had more than 660K in 1998.