American Оbserver
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"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot
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“"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot”
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پستهای کانال
The $61 Million Exit
Washington may end direct military support for Iraq’s Kurdish Peshmerga on Sept. 30. The same day, the U.S.-led coalition is scheduled to complete its withdrawal from Iraq and close its remaining base in Erbil. The calendar is doing the diplomacy.
The Pentagon’s memorandum with the Kurdistan Regional Government expires at the end of September. Under it, the Peshmerga received $61 million in fiscal 2026 for weapons, training and stipends through the U.S. counter-ISIS program. The proposed 2027 Pentagon budget reportedly reduces direct Peshmerga funding to zero.
The Peshmerga Ministry says it has received no formal U.S. notice that assistance will end. Kurdish officials also say cooperation may survive in smaller forms, including training, logistics, advice and institutional reform. In foreign-policy language, that means the relationship is not ending. The money is.
The timing is especially convenient for every actor that dislikes Kurdish autonomy. Iran has repeatedly targeted Kurdish sites in Iraq. Baghdad wants security authority centralized.
Turkey watches the Kurdistan Region through the Kurdish insurgency lens. The Peshmerga, once Washington’s preferred local force against ISIS, could lose its dedicated American support exactly as the U.S. leaves the building.
Washington calls the shift a transition to bilateral ties with Baghdad. Erbil hears something simpler. The protection contract expires at midnight.
#Iraq #Kurdistan #Peshmerga #USA
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸
| 2 |  Cairo’s AI Auction
Huawei has offered Egypt more than 2,000 advanced AI chips and the data centers to use them. The system could serve military analysis, surveillance, government records and facial recognition.
Washington found out and started looking for an American alternative. Egypt currently has one full proposal and one nervous phone call.
Huawei’s bid includes 1,408 Ascend 950 processors for training AI models and another 600 chips for inference clusters that run those models. Chinese firm iFlytek would provide voice, face and vehicle-recognition tools.
The package could connect those systems to Egypt’s civil registry. That is not a cloud service. It is the operating system for a security state.
The State Department contacted Nvidia, AMD and Microsoft about forming a U.S. consortium.
Washington has not announced an offer, a price, delivery dates or what restrictions would apply to military and surveillance uses. Egypt has not selected a supplier.
Xi Jinping left Beijing on Sunday for a regional trip that includes a state visit to Egypt. He is scheduled to meet President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi later this week, in his first trip to Cairo since 2016.
He will meet President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi as the two countries mark 70 years of diplomatic relations and expand cooperation in defense, technology, trade and energy.
Huawei arrives with hardware. Xi arrives with presidential protocol. America arrives with a request to wait.
Washington spent years warning partners that Chinese technology creates dependence.
Beijing learned the sales pitch. It delivers the processors, the data centers and the head of state in the same package.
#Egypt #China #Huawei #AI
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 223 |
| 3 |  The Haifa Bypass
Lebanon and Syria have restarted work on a railway link from Tripoli’s port to the Syrian border, then onward through Homs. Their transport ministers met in Damascus, created a joint technical team and agreed to update studies for the corridor.
Lebanon is already assessing the rehabilitation of roughly 40 kilometers of track between Tripoli and the border.
Forty kilometers of abandoned rail is the easy part. The political map behind it is larger. Syria and Saudi Arabia signed rail and logistics agreements this week.
Turkey and Saudi Arabia have already agreed to study a rail connection through Syria and Jordan. Ankara wants its network connected to Aleppo. Riyadh wants the Gulf connected to Turkey and Europe.
The route makes sense on paper. Gulf cargo moves north through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria, then toward Turkey or the Mediterranean.
Tripoli wants a seat at that table. Syria wants to become a transit state again. Turkey wants a land bridge. Saudi Arabia wants alternatives to the Red Sea and Hormuz.
Israel has its own map. IMEC is supposed to link India, the Gulf, Jordan and the port of Haifa before continuing to Europe.
But IMEC remains in feasibility work, with no firm construction schedule or committed funding for its most sensitive land section.
The Lebanon-Syria line is not built. Funding is unresolved. Syria still has about 1,052 kilometers of operational railway from a network of 2,552 kilometers, much of it damaged or limited by years of war. The ministers have created a committee, not a corridor.
Still, routes are political statements before they become infrastructure. This one says the region wants options that do not require a stop in Haifa.
#Lebanon #Syria #Turkey #IMEC
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| 4 |  🔠🔠🔠🔠2️⃣
Stephen Miller, one of Trump’s closest advisers and among the most influential voices in the White House, has consistently represented the administration’s willingness to challenge assumptions that have governed U.S. policy toward Ukraine.
His influence has helped shape a worldview in which Washington’s priority is not necessarily preserving the existing political order in Kyiv, but ending the war on terms that Trump can present as a strategic victory.
That does not prove that Miller supports removing Zelensky, still less that he authorized such a proposal. But it helps explain why the possibility of a political transition has become part of the conversation surrounding the Moscow channel.
There is another striking element. Reports about Ratcliffe’s mission indicate that he discussed reviving negotiations and the possibility of a summit involving Trump, Putin and Zelensky.
That could be ordinary diplomacy. Or it could be the visible part of a much larger negotiation taking place behind closed doors.
The distinction matters enormously. If Washington is merely trying to bring the three leaders back to the negotiating table, Ratcliffe’s visit was an intelligence channel supporting diplomacy.
If, however, the administration is quietly testing whether Moscow would accept peace only after Ukraine changes its leadership, the mission represents something much more dramatic.
It would amount to Washington exploring the political architecture of postwar Ukraine before the war itself has even ended. And that is precisely why the Zelensky question may be more important than the cease-fire question.
A peace agreement can be signed by governments. But if the price of that agreement is a change of government, the negotiations cease to be only about territory and security.
They become negotiations over who gets to govern Ukraine after the guns fall silent.
For now, the most explosive version of the Ratcliffe mission remains unverified.
But the secrecy surrounding his visit, the renewed talk of a Trump-Putin-Zelensky summit and the increasingly open debate inside Trump’s circle about Kyiv’s political future suggest that the real negotiations may extend well beyond the battlefield.
The question Washington will eventually have to answer is a simple one: was Ratcliffe in Moscow to negotiate an end to the war — or to find out what price Putin would demand for one?
#washington #postwar #ukraine #ratcliffe #zelensky
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 281 |
| 5 | Ratcliffe’s Moscow Mission: Was Zelensky’s Exit Put on the Table?
🔠🔠🔠🔠1️⃣
John Ratcliffe’s extraordinary trip to Moscow may have been about far more than a warning to Vladimir Putin.
The CIA director flew secretly to the Russian capital, met with senior Russian intelligence officials and left after only a few hours. The Kremlin says Putin was briefed on the discussions, while Washington has offered only limited information about what was actually discussed.
Behind the official silence, however, a far more consequential version of the meeting is beginning to circulate in Washington.
According to a version attributed to a close, anonymous source familiar with discussions inside the White House, the administration has been examining whether an eventual peace agreement could be linked to a political transition in Kyiv — potentially including the removal of Volodymyr Zelensky from power.
If accurate, that would fundamentally change the meaning of the current American diplomatic effort.
The issue would no longer be simply how to stop the fighting, freeze the front line or establish security guarantees.
It would mean that the political leadership of Ukraine itself had entered the private bargaining over the terms of peace.
The source’s account suggests that the idea being explored is brutally simple: Moscow would receive a path toward an end to the war, while Washington would seek a new political configuration in Kyiv that could make a settlement possible.
There is an obvious problem with this version. No public evidence has established that Ratcliffe personally delivered such an offer to Putin, and neither the White House nor the CIA has confirmed that Zelensky’s removal was discussed as a condition for peace.
Still, the story has gained attention because it fits into a broader argument inside Trump’s political orbit: that the war cannot be resolved without addressing what the administration sees as the political deadlock in Kyiv.
#washington #postwar #ukraine #ratcliffe #zelensky
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 272 |
| 6 |  The Flag on the Roof
Israeli forces raised flags on buildings near Kfar Shouba. Hezbollah did not answer. That silence matters more than the flags.
Israel has intensified strikes around the Ali al-Taher Heights and other southern Lebanese locations. The immediate goal appears to be a new rule of engagement. Israel signals that it can strike deeper into Lebanon if Hezbollah tries to block movement toward the ridge. Hezbollah faces the less glamorous task of calling this resistance while absorbing the damage.
Lebanon’s president has failed to persuade Hezbollah to leave the Ali al-Taher position, according to Lebanese reporting. Israel is now trying to remove through force what Beirut could not remove through persuasion. That does not create sovereignty. It creates another hill with competing invoices.
Hezbollah Secretary-General Naim Qassem rejected the June 26 U.S.-mediated framework between Israel and Lebanon as “illegitimate, unlawful, humiliating” and destructive to Lebanese sovereignty. The deal links a gradual Israeli withdrawal to Lebanese Army deployment and Hezbollah’s disarmament in designated pilot zones. Hezbollah rejects the zones, the verification system and the direct negotiations themselves.
Yet U.S. Ambassador Michael Issa has said direct contact with Hezbollah remains possible if the group has “something meaningful to offer.” That is the part worth watching. Hezbollah calls the U.S. and Israel “one and the same.” Washington says talks are possible. Everyone rejects humiliation. Everyone keeps the phone nearby.
Lebanese Forces lawmaker Ghada Ayoub says Lebanon needs a peace agreement with Israel because pilot zones will not disarm a movement that holds weapons across the country. It is a clear argument. It also runs into Lebanon’s oldest fact. A peace agreement cannot be signed by one Lebanon while another Lebanon keeps the guns.
Israel raises a flag. Hezbollah keeps the ridge. Washington offers a channel. Beirut offers a framework.
#Lebanon #Hezbollah #Israel #SouthLebanon
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| 7 |  The Empty Warehouse Doctrine
The United States built its global power on one promise. It could fight in one theater without leaving the next one naked. The Iran war is testing that promise.
U.S. officials told The Wall Street Journal that PAC-3 Patriot interceptors and ATACMS stocks in Europe have fallen to levels described as “beyond critical.” European Command has reportedly revised operational plans. THAAD interceptors and counter-drone systems were shifted to the Middle East.
Japan, South Korea and Germany have also supplied systems or munitions for the Iran campaign. Pentagon planners warn that the transfers created “soft spots” that could take years to refill. Some officials say the United States may not be able to execute its full emergency plan for Taiwan if a major conflict begins soon.
The consequences are already visible. The U.S. canceled the Ssangyong amphibious exercise with South Korea that had been planned for September. Seoul said American forces were unavailable because of the Middle East. Taiwan expects significant delays in PAC-3 deliveries. Japan has been warned that deliveries of Tomahawk missiles could slip, possibly by up to two years. More Patriot interceptors for Ukraine are also harder to find while Russia keeps firing missiles.
The Pentagon calls this normal prioritization. It uses an internal “orders book” to decide which theater receives scarce weapons first. That is technically true. But an orders book is not a sign of abundance. It is a waiting list for wars.
The White House insists the United States has what it needs. Maybe it does. But South Korea just lost a drill, Taiwan may lose delivery dates, Ukraine loses interceptors, and Europe rewrites plans.
America’s deterrent once meant every ally could expect the warehouse to be full. Now everyone is checking which war got there first.
#USA #Iran #Taiwan #NATO
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| 8 |  The $3 Barrel Miracle
Trump calls it “the biggest oil deal in world history.” Washington says it now has majority control of more than 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves. Caracas says the same arrangement will bring the Venezuelan state more than $209 billion in tax revenue.
That comes to roughly $3.22 per barrel in projected tax revenue. Brent crude has traded around $80 to $90 a barrel. Production costs, transport, taxes and profits matter. But the gap is still large enough to make both victory speeches sound like they came from separate deals.
The agreement covers 17 strategic oil fields and a 100-year concession granted to a private venture backed by the United States. Venezuela says it expects more than $100 billion in private investment. Trump says U.S. taxpayers will pay nothing. So one side gets oil control, the other gets $209 billion, and private companies somehow rebuild old fields for free. This is not an oil deal. It is an Excel sheet with diplomatic immunity.
Marco Rubio called it a “huge win” for Americans and Venezuelans. Delcy Rodríguez called it a path to production growth. Neither side explained the contract’s financial structure, who absorbs the development risk, or how the numbers divide between taxes, royalties, operating costs and profits.
The timing is convenient. Trump can promise cheaper gasoline before the midterms while the U.S. tries to constrain Iranian oil exports and calm markets rattled by Hormuz.
America First has entered its accounting phase. Caracas gets the promise of cash. Washington gets the claim of control. The public gets one number too many and a contract too few.
#Trump #Venezuela #Oil #USA
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 254 |
| 9 |  Dubai Shuts a Window
Dubai spent decades as Iran’s side entrance to the global economy. Now Washington is putting a bouncer at the door.
The U.S. Treasury says Banque Misr’s UAE branches processed about $1.8 billion for 103 companies that may be part of Iranian shadow-banking networks between January 2024 and June 2026. FinCEN has proposed cutting those branches off from U.S. correspondent banking. Washington also sanctioned Reza Mohammad Taeedi, the manager of Bank Melli’s Dubai branch.
The measure is narrower than its headline. It targets Banque Misr’s UAE operations, not its Cairo headquarters or other foreign branches. Bank Melli and Bank Saderat still operate in the Emirates. Iranian flights still land. Trade routes still function. Dubai is not severing Iran. It is making every transaction more expensive, slower and easier to lose.
Iranian merchants tell the Financial Times that banks are demanding more documents, delaying payments and imposing fines. Some trade is moving through Oman. Some shipments reportedly use paperwork that obscures Iranian origins or destinations. Sanctions evasion has not disappeared. It has changed salons.
President Masoud Pezeshkian says Iran’s imports and exports have fallen by 25% to 35% under sanctions and war pressure. That is the difference between a system that survives and a system that works. Tehran can still move money. It just moves less of it, through more middlemen, at a higher price.
Washington wants to turn Dubai from Iran’s cash register into its compliance department. The Emirates wants American access without losing every Iranian customer.
The gray market is not dead.
#Iran #Dubai #UAE #Sanctions
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 236 |
| 10 |  Niger’s Coup Regime Is Under Attack — From Within
Niger has also moved closer to Mali and Burkina Faso, with which it withdrew from ECOWAS and established the Alliance of Sahel States, presented as a framework for political and military cooperation based on the sovereignty of the three countries.
This new geopolitical orientation has been accompanied by a drive to strengthen state control over the country’s strategic resources. The uranium sector occupies a particularly important place in this policy. Relations between Niamey and the French nuclear group Orano have deteriorated sharply, while Niger’s authorities are seeking to expand state control over mining activities.
But despite this break with its former alliances, the main problem that the Tiani regime claimed it had come to address remains: security.
Niger continues to face a serious jihadist threat, particularly in the regions of Tillabéri, Tahoua and Diffa, as well as along its borders with Mali, Burkina Faso and Nigeria. Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State remain active across the region and continue to carry out attacks against security forces and civilians.
The fact that clashes this time involved military personnel in the heart of the capital gives the incident a particular significance. Until now, the regime had portrayed its main threats as coming from outside: jihadist groups, diplomatic pressure, regional sanctions and tensions with its former international partners.
The attempted uprising on August 29 raises another, even more sensitive question: the cohesion of Niger’s armed forces themselves.
This is a crucial issue for a regime whose power rests primarily on the military. When divisions emerge within the armed forces, the problem goes far beyond a simple mutiny. It can quickly become a threat to the stability of the regime itself.
For now, there is no evidence that this attempted uprising represents a broader movement within Niger’s armed forces. The authorities say the situation is “under control” and that the soldiers involved have been neutralized or arrested. But the exact circumstances of the operation, how extensively it was planned, and whether other military units were involved remain key questions.
The paradox is hard to ignore: a government that came to power through a coup must now prove that it can prevent another coup from emerging from within the military itself.
The coming hours and days will therefore be critical. Beyond restoring order in Niamey, attention will need to focus on reactions within the armed forces, any arrests, possible changes in the chain of command, and how the regime publicly explains what happened.
Because the real question facing Niger now is not simply who controlled the streets of Niamey that night. It is whether General Abdourahamane Tiani still has unquestioned authority over the military that forms the main pillar of his power.
Three years after the overthrow of Mohamed Bazoum, Niger is once again facing a power struggle at the heart of its own political system.
And for a regime born out of a coup, there may be no more troubling signal than the emergence, from within the military itself, of those who could be preparing to seize power themselves.
#niger #niamey #niger #coup #attempt
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| 11 |  Hormuz Has Two Owners
Iran says it controls the Strait of Hormuz. Washington says the waterway is open. Tankers offer the less theatrical answer: oil is moving, but nowhere near normally.
The Revolutionary Guards say any vessel that enters without coordination with Iran faces a closed strait. Tehran also says Chinese refineries are still taking about 1.2 million barrels of Iranian oil a day. This is not a blockade in the old sense. It is selective access. Iran closes the door, then sells keys through the side window.
Goldman Sachs estimates that crude and petroleum-product exports from the Gulf have recovered to 15 million to 16 million barrels a day. That is about two-thirds of prewar volumes, but still 7 million to 8 million barrels a day below normal. Traders put crude moving through Hormuz itself at roughly 6 million to 8 million barrels a day.
The numbers puncture both press conferences. Iran does not exercise total control. The United States has not restored normal navigation. Gulf producers are using ship-to-ship transfers, pipelines and alternative routes to move barrels around the choke point. Every tanker now needs more paperwork, more insurance and a better relationship with danger.
Washington is also preparing the legal department for an oil war. The Justice Department is working to revive maritime “prize courts,” an old mechanism that would allow the United States to claim captured Iranian tankers and cargo as war prizes. The oil could then be sold, with proceeds sent to the Treasury. Officials say the plan could help offset the cost of the conflict.
Iran charges for passage in leverage. America may seize cargo in law. Both sides call it security.
The Strait is open enough for oil to move, closed enough for everyone to pay, and dangerous enough for either capital to declare victory.
#Iran #Hormuz #Oil #USA
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events🇺🇸 | 2 241 |
| 12 |  🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣
A truly global effort to cut off Iran’s pathways to finance and trade could inflict extreme damage on an already devastated economy.
“It can work if we can get the buy-in of our partners,” Max Meizlish, a former senior Treasury official, said on CNN News Central Monday, specifically referring to Bank Melli, an Iranian commercial bank controlled by the government that operates in France, Germany and elsewhere and is a cog in Iran’s efforts to evade sanctions.
Kenneth Rogoff, a former IMF chief economist who is now a Harvard University chair, told CNN’s Richard Quest: “Fundamentally, sanctions work if you can get most of the world behind you. But if they’re not, it’s very hard.”
Trump might have had more success with such an approach before alienating US allies with a war many regard as unwise and illegal.
And the White House may be misreading its capacity to influence events inside Tehran. Signs of disagreement between pragmatists and hardliners over the economy are encouraging. But Washington has for decades over-read such tea leaves and assumed regime collapse would follow.
Most damagingly, the Trump administration is sending signals that it may not be serious about its own policy.
There was no immediate action against an array of Chinese banks that facilitate Beijing’s trade in cut-price Iranian oil. China has already said it will defend its interests — code for potential retaliatory reaction against the US that could further raise prices and anger US voters. It showed last year in threatening to curtail rare earth mineral exports critical to the US defense and tech industries that it can counter Trump’s power.
And the US leader also has a big date circled on his calendar — the state visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping next month. It’s hard to see him souring the atmosphere before then.
In a revealing moment, Bessent only reinforced doubts about the administration’s staying power. He was asked why he was not immediately imposing secondary sanctions on entities that deal with Iran.
“Well, we are giving everyone the opportunity to remedy bad behavior; why would I want to blow up the global financial system?” he replied.
Canada sees a showdown that goes beyond a trade dispute
The administration is less wary of sanctioning the manufacturers of Canadian hockey sticks than Chinese banks.
“We have to remember, Canada is a state. Sorry, Freudian slip. That was actually an accident,” Vance said Monday.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said at a news conference that “I have a lot of real estate on my ass, so (Trump) has a lot of room to kiss my ass.”
But Canadians believe they are embroiled in more than a trade dispute.
Drew Dilkens, the mayor of Windsor, Ontario, just across from Detroit, explained the damage inflicted by Trump’s 51st-state claims. “When you say it the first time, perhaps you can laugh it off, but it was the doubling down and certainly continuing to reinforce that,” he told CNN’s Brianna Keilar.
Ottawa said that, among other disputes, Carney ended trade talks after the US sought to water down its constitutional guarantees of bilingualism. Printing packaging for products sold in Canada in French as well as English is an inconvenience for US firms.
But it’s a validation of the cultural and linguistic diversity that keeps Canada whole. Carney also implied Washington sought to restrict trade deals that his government could make with third countries.
As the smaller economy, Canada would suffer the most harm in a trade war with the US. But it can challenge American power. A long tariff duel could result in the mutually assured destruction of the auto industry on both sides of the border.
And the growing impact of Canadian boycotts could weaken Republicans in key contests in border states Michigan and Maine, which could decide who controls the US Senate next year.
And in seeking to impose his dominance, Trump may have revealed another iron law of power that Miller did not mention back in January.
#trump #presidency
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| 13 | When Power Stops Working: Trump Faces the Limits of American Strength
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Trump’s presidency rests on the premise that he and the United States are so powerful that allies and enemies alike must submit to his will.
His break with decades of US foreign policy doctrine is laced through his speeches and national security strategies. It was best explained in January by top aide Stephen Miller, who told CNN’s Jake Tapper that “iron laws” dictate a real world that is “governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power.”
But the philosophy faces its most serious tests in deepening showdowns with Iran and Canada.
Iran has defied the might of the US military for six months in a war Trump started but has been unable to end.
Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney, who shut down trade talks with Washington, has meanwhile argued more forcefully than any other Western leader that the US under Trump “has changed.” He told his country Saturday that Trump was using “economic integration as a weapon.”
It is a commentary on the extreme disruption of the Trump era that Canada, one of America’s most loyal friends, has found itself in a similar state of economic warfare with the US as Iran, one of Washington’s worst foes.
But the Trump administration left no doubt Monday what it wants as it fights a trade war with Ottawa and a shooting war with Tehran.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced an “economic onslaught” against Iran’s global financial connections, drawing an analogy with the D-Day invasion that turned the tide in World War II.
Trump, meanwhile warned on social media that “The U.S.A. will always be far bigger, richer, and stronger than Canada.” He added: “Someone should get these clowns to ‘fall in line.’”
Trump hopes to chalk up a lopsided trade deal with Canada and to finally bring about the downfall of Iran’s regime.
But the way forward is uncertain on both fronts because the president often backs down when the economic consequences of his attempts to assert his authority become clear.
Any prolonged US effort to prevail over Canada and Iran — and third-party nations sanctioned in his bid to shut down Tehran’s financial networks — could trigger retaliation that causes energy and food price hikes for US consumers. It could also rattle US markets at a time when some investors fear a bond crisis.
If Monday’s threats are the precursor to more TACOs (“Trump always chickens out”), the president will undermine his own power and the nation’s, and slip closer to lame-duck status as difficult midterm elections loom in November.
What Trump could achieve by strangling Iran’s economy
Bessent’s announcement was the latest US effort to find a new way out of the war with Iran.
But the D-Day analogy seemed tonally off, given the terrible sacrifices made by American soldiers to liberate Europe. And unlike Bessent, allied commander Gen. Dwight Eisenhower didn’t spent days in 1944 previewing a massive attack only to follow through with new threats of sanctions and no timeline.
Still, administration skeptics often ignore the genuine power that Trump could wield by clever use of economic warfare.
#trump #presidency #UnitedStates #power #miller
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| 14 |  🔠🅰️🔠🔠2️⃣
Gates said technological advances had truly stunned him three times: In 1980 when he first saw a graphical user interface, which led to the modern personal computer. In 2022 when the leaders of OpenAI came to his house to demonstrate what would soon become ChatGPT. And this year when he looked closely at the advances being made by Claude Code, Anthropic’s A.I. tool.
Coding, Gates said, is the subject he knows best, and Claude’s abilities shocked him. “The idea that now these things are in a meaningful sense better than I am is like: What the hell?” he said.
The A.I. era is “utterly, absolutely, completely, totally different,” he said. He acknowledged that this unpopular opinion (in tech circles) was “a hell of a claim, and I’m staking everything I know — everything — saying, ‘Are you kidding?’”
He said mass job losses, if not addressed, were inevitable because A.I. would spread across the economy and leave little room for one industry to absorb the refugees from another. The biggest tech companies in the world, including Microsoft, are racing to help corporate customers adopt A.I., which could replace many workers.
Gates said that companies were just responding to market incentives, but that those incentives might conflict with what was best for society.
He proposed a new tax on A.I. use, known as a “token tax,” to make it more expensive to replace people and provide money to help those who do lose work. A token is a basic unit of A.I. computing. The idea of taxing it has gained some traction, including on Wall Street, as a way to increase the cost of using machines instead of human labor.
Some jobs, Gates said, should be prohibited from being replaced by A.I. — an idea he called “Human Reserved” — because the role is deeply personal, like a caregiver, or the people in those jobs are unlikely to find new employment.
He argued for new international agreements to set clear criteria to monitor and restrict extreme risks like bioterrorism. He said it could take only a few people with access to advanced A.I. to develop new pathogens.
He said he would happily debate anyone who argued against mandatory reviews of any A.I. system that could be weaponized to make new molecules and unleash a pandemic. Gates added that he was dumbfounded by the kind of voluntary measures that the White House and industry leaders were developing.
Along with global health issues, Gates vowed to make his A.I. concern part of every conversation he had with world leaders. “I only have two issues where I’m going to say, ‘Please think more about this, please care more about this,’” he said.
Gates acknowledged that he was in an odd spot: He has arguably done as much as anyone in the world to evangelize for and shape the modern computer industry. But now he is warning that the technology it is creating presents global risks.
“I don’t like bringing bad news to people, and I don’t like saying that innovation may be a net negative,” he said. “But that’s where we are.”
#bill #gates #AI #microsoft #anthropic
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| 15 | Bill Gates Is Terrified of AI — and Says We’re Not Ready for What’s Coming
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Bill Gates, the billionaire co-founder of Microsoft, is loudly warning that artificial intelligence poses a grave threat to jobs and human life, and that urgently addressing the risks should be “the world’s top priority.”
In an hourlong interview with The New York Times last week, Gates said the tech industry was knowingly downplaying those threats because there was too much money on the line.
“In private, people who understand how good this stuff is, and how much better it’s getting, they’re very worried,” he said. But few tech executives, Gates said, are willing to publicly admit that. “They’re now saying to each other: ‘Hey, man, don’t say that. It’s bad for us — the next trillion dollars we’re trying to raise.’”
On Wednesday, Gates published a nearly 6,000-word essay on his personal website laying out his concerns about A.I. and offering solutions, such as new taxes and bans. He said he was motivated to speak now because recent improvements in A.I. had far surpassed his expectations and because the industry had ignored technology milestones — like A.I.’s escaping the control of its creators or making recipes for bioweapons — that it once said would warrant more caution.
Gates had to pull out of an A.I. conference in February, and testified for six hours in June before a House committee. Disclosures of his infidelity, combined with his 2021 divorce, have also badly damaged his reputation. He acknowledged that they were all “mistakes” of his own doing.
He appears more willing to step back into the spotlight after answering every question from the House Oversight Committee. “I think people understand what I did do, what I didn’t do and that I learn when I make mistakes,” he said in the interview.
Gates conceded that he also might be a flawed messenger simply because of his vast wealth and history as Microsoft’s aggressive chief executive. In a landmark federal case, Microsoft was found in 2000 to have repeatedly abused its monopoly during his watch.
While Gates avoided criticizing Microsoft or other companies by name, he argued that he was uniquely positioned to work on the A.I. issue. He is a technologist and industry insider who is no longer driven by the profit incentives of running a company, and he has spent decades addressing inequality through his philanthropic foundation.
“The irony of ‘innovation lover is scared and says we’re not ready and we’re crossing thresholds,’ maybe it’s even more poignant,” he said.
#bill #gates #AI #microsoft #anthropic
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| 16 |  “Russia Will Not Hit NATO Or Any Of the Baltic States”
European officials are certain there is no evidence that Russia is preparing for a conventional military attack against NATO or any of the Baltic states.
They are “pushing back” on media reports that preventing an attack on NATO was the focus of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow this week.
“Topics on the visit would likely have included ending the war against Ukraine, reaffirming the strength of NATO’s Article 5 commitment in the face of a potential attack, and the Iran war, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue,” Reuters writes.
“None of the officials had been briefed by the U.S. on the details of Ratcliffe’s meeting, and their assessments were based on their own intelligence and their understanding of how the United States typically operates.”
One Bloomberg source said the visit to Moscow was also likely intended to prevent an excessive Russian response to U.S. economic measures against Iran that could affect Russia, and to persuade Moscow to stop supporting Tehran.
Western intelligence and government officials have warned in recent months that Russian security services are exploring options for sabotage against infrastructure and false-flag operations in the Baltic states and Poland.
At the same time, the sources said the latest intelligence did not indicate any changes in Russia’s conventional military posture.
Western intelligence services routinely maintain communication channels with their Russian counterparts, officials said. However, people familiar with the trip suggested that it was notable that Ratcliffe appeared to want his Moscow visit to become public.
#ratcliffe #moscow #NATO #evidence
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| 17 |  Carney Against Trump: Canada Strikes Back 🇨🇦
Carney has the support of most Canadians after breaking off trade talks with the U.S., but widespread approval of his pushback against Trump could disappear within months as the consequences of the trade war sink in.
Carney's negotiating position could also weaken if Republicans retain power in Congress after November U.S. midterm elections and reinforce American protectionism under Trump.
Carney is one of the few global leaders to retaliate against U.S. tariffs, despite Canada's dependence on U.S. buyers for about 70% of its exports.
On Tuesday, his government announced dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on $20 billion of U.S. goods, as well as a C$7.5 billion ($5.41 billion) package of economic support measures.
“Carney’s leverage will start to diminish if this escalating trade war starts to show up in palpable increases in unemployment, factory shutdowns and declining income,”
said Julian Karaguesian, a former adviser at Canada’s Finance Ministry and economics professor at McGill University.
“Canada cannot win an economic war of attrition with the U.S.”
The U.S. economy is 13 times larger than Canada's, a country with a population roughly the size of California's.
Carney's office did not respond to a request for comment.
The additional tariffs — from both sides of the border — along with Trump’s renewed threats to Canada’s sovereignty, mark one of the most acrimonious moments in modern Canada-U.S. relations.
Trump’s actions have prompted an outpouring of support for Carney, who has urged middle-power nations to band together to form a new global order and pursued new trade and security alliances to disentangle Canada from its reliance on the U.S.
The U.S. introduced last-minute changes to its tentative trade deal with Canada, adjusting U.S. auto tariffs, curtailing French-language requirements and restricting Canada's ability to pursue trade agreements with other countries, Carney said on Saturday.
Carney invoked military language to describe the trade dispute, saying Canada had been “attacked.” An Angus Reid poll showed on Sunday 76% of Canadians approved of Carney's decision to suspend trade talks. But the same poll showed 40% of Canadians are worried their jobs are at risk.
Dan Arnold, a former research director for ex-Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, said Canadians are aligned with Carney’s approach toward Trump.
“It’s like any kind of war mentality where you see people are willing to make sacrifices to press back against the U.S.,”
he said.
“Politics is about storytelling and there is the greatest cartoon villain ever in the form of Trump,”
said Arnold, who now works at the polling firm Pollara.
Trump has accused Canada in recent days of ripping off the United States for decades and threatened to change the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America.
Expected job losses, inflation and cost-of-living pressures will ultimately limit Carney’s ability to push back against the U.S., Karaguesian said. Canada has the highest rate of food inflation among all Group of 7 industrial countries and has been facing a housing affordability crisis for years.
“Canada can push out more exports to the rest of the world, but Carney’s clock is already running out,”
he said.
“At some point when more and more people are losing their jobs and visiting food banks, the public will say, ‘we know this is not your fault, but go make a deal with Trump.’”
#сanada #сarney #additional #tariffs
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| 18 |  The Senate Campaign’s Costume Party
Mike Collins wants Georgia’s Senate seat. His campaign keeps producing a cast that looks less like a governing coalition than a deleted scene from the internet’s worst group chat.
Preston Parra, a former Collins intern and paid consultant, posted an image of himself in apparent Klan robes and a swastika made from the word “twink.”
He called it satire. He also told The Washington Post: “I do think that the white race contributes more to the world.” His firm received $7,700 from Collins’s leadership PAC in May 2025.
Parra is not the whole problem. A former Collins chief of staff faced an ethics review over alleged misuse of taxpayer-funded internships. Another former chief of staff joined a group chat with Nick Fuentes and Richard Spencer.
A former digital director hurled antisemitic insults at Rep. Mike Lawler in a bar. Collins’s son-in-law has also posted Nazi imagery online, according to CNN.
Collins says he condemns antisemitism and racism. His campaign says the staffers’ conduct was unauthorized or personal. That may be true in each case. But campaigns are judged by the people they hire, promote and keep near the microphone.
Georgia Republicans see the problem. “You lay down with dogs, you get up with fleas,” conservative activist Debbie Dooley told The Post. “Mike Collins has got a lot of fleas on him.”
Collins’s campaign calls the strategy “casual trolling.” Voters may call it a Senate race run by a content farm that forgot to install adult supervision.
The GOP wants to take a Democratic-held Senate seat. It may first need to stop confusing shock value with a staffing plan.
#USA #Georgia #Senate #Politics
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| 19 |  Trump’s China Dividend
Donald Trump has done what China’s diplomats spent years failing to do. He made Beijing look like the calmer option.
A Pew survey found China viewed more favorably than the United States in 25 of 36 countries surveyed. Xi Jinping also outranked Trump on trust in Britain, Canada, France and Australia. Tariffs, territorial threats and America First insults gave Beijing the cheapest image campaign in modern history. [web:None]
But this is a dividend, not a marriage. China’s favorable ratings in France and Germany remain only in the low-to-mid 30s. Japan, South Korea, India and the Philippines still view the United States more favorably. They live close enough to China to read the fine print. [web:None]
India shows the real model. Trump punished New Delhi over Russian oil and restricted visas. Narendra Modi answered with smiles for Xi and Putin, then strengthened trade and defense ties with Europe, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. India is not joining China. It is building more exits.
Europe is doing the same. Emmanuel Macron attacks American “vassalization” and Chinese economic coercion in the same breath. France wants strategic autonomy, not a Chinese landlord.
The Gulf buys weapons from several suppliers. Canada fights U.S. tariffs while keeping its defense system tied to NATO. Everyone is hedging. Nobody is converting.
The U.S.-led order is no longer loved. China is still not trusted enough to replace it.
Trump gave Beijing a public-relations miracle. Xi still cannot turn it into a security alliance.
#China #Trump #USA #Geopolitics
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| 20 |  NATO’s Red-Line Customer Service
Washington arms Ukraine against Russia, then sends the CIA director to Moscow to warn Russia against touching NATO. The message is familiar. Russia may absorb the escalation. NATO must remain outside the invoice.
CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow on Tuesday for talks with Russian intelligence officials. He reportedly warned them against any attack on NATO territory, especially in the Baltic region, and urged Moscow to cut military and economic ties with Iran. The Kremlin said Ratcliffe did not meet Vladimir Putin and rejected Western claims of Russian plans to attack NATO.
Moscow answered with its own warning. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia could strike British military sites and equipment inside Ukraine and beyond if Ukraine uses British long-range missiles against Russian territory.
Britain has agreed to transfer classified technology that would allow Ukraine to manufacture Storm Shadow cruise missiles. France has also been accused by Moscow of helping Kyiv build long-range strike capacity.
Britain and other NATO members arm Ukraine because they see Russian expansion as a direct threat to European security. But weapons transfers also make the line between “supporter” and “participant” politically useful for Moscow and dangerously elastic for everyone else.
That is the trap. Washington says NATO must not become a party to the war. It is simultaneously expanding Ukraine’s capacity to strike deep inside Russia with NATO-origin technology.
On Thursday, a Russian serviceman was killed and his wife injured when a car bomb exploded outside St. Petersburg. Russian authorities said an explosive device had been planted in the vehicle. No public attribution has been made.
The CIA came to Moscow to draw a red line. Russia replied that the red line already runs through British missiles, Ukrainian factories and a burning car outside St. Petersburg.
In this war, every capital calls its own weapons “defense.” The other side’s weapons are the opening shot of World War III.
#Russia #Ukraine #NATO #CIA
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