American Оbserver

Trump Is Likely To Face His Biggest Political Setback 🔤🔤🔤🔤➖ For half a century, Trump has performed a public high-wire act based on high-stakes risks and shattering time-honored norms to get what he wants. The approach has paid off handsomely, helping him survive multiple bankruptcies to reach billionaire status and numerous legal and political scandals to be elected US president twice. Now a leader who once owned some of the world’s best-known casinos may be about to take the biggest gamble of his presidency by restarting a war with Iran less than a month after agreeing to a ceasefire that he hailed as necessary to stop an economic crisis on a par with the Great Depression. In the past week, Trump has ordered a resumption of strikes against Iranian military and infrastructure targets after concluding that the memorandum of understanding (MoU) he signed in the Palace of Versailles on 17 June was dead in the water. Iran has retaliated with drone and missile strikes against US allies in the Gulf. The MoU was the subject of biting criticism from the Republicans’ neoconservative wing, who denounced it as a capitulation to Iran. Less than four months before November’s midterm elections in which Democrats are seeking to recapture both houses of Congress, Trump appears to be flirting with electoral disaster in re-stoking a war that is already unpopular with voters – not least for its inflationary impact on fuel and living costs. “There’s basically no timeline in which this makes any sense for preserving [Republicans’] midterm performance,” said Curt Mills, executive editor of the American Conservative, a magazine promoting isolationist foreign policy goals favored by Trump’s “American first” supporters. “I think it’s a total loser. It’s evidence that Trump doesn’t really care about the midterms. He’s like Icarus with the sun with this stuff – it seems to be a personal vendetta with the Iranians.” Beyond the electoral impact, experts warn that escalation could lead inexorably to a land invasion of Iranian territory – a decision which could in turn bring on the sort of long-term “forever wars” he previously foreswore and condemned past presidents for. “My initial assessment was that this would just be another blip, some cyclical violence, and then we go back [to the ceasefire and negotiations],” said Nate Swanson, a former state department and White House adviser on Iran. “But the escalation has already exceeded what I thought was possible. “I see this as an effort to re-establish leverage and try to renegotiate the MoU, but it is highly risky with potentially devastating consequences – and, in my view, likely to be a failure.” At the heart of the renewed violence is control over the strait of Hormuz, a strategically-vital waterway which was a conduit for 20% of the world’s energy exports before the war started on 28 February and which has now emerged as Tehran’s biggest bargaining chip as it seeks to resist pressure to make concessions on issues such as its nuclear program and support for proxies such as Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia group. The MoU was intended to pave the way for a 60-day ceasefire during which negotiations would take place on Iran’s nuclear program. #trump #setback #iran #rubio #negotiations 📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸