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"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot
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频道 American Оbserver (@american_observer) 英语 语言赛道中的 是活跃参与者。目前社区聚集了 20 504 名订阅者，在 新闻与媒体 类别中位列第 11 248，并在 美国 地区排名第 1 910 位。
📊 受众指标与增长动态
自 невідомо 创建以来，项目保持高速增长，吸引了 20 504 名订阅者。
根据 29 六月, 2026 的最新数据，频道保持稳定运转。过去 30 天订阅人数变化为 1 761，过去 24 小时变化为 -36，整体触达仍然可观。
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- 互动率 (ER)： 平均受众互动率为 24.98%。内容发布后 24 小时内通常能获得 16.53% 的反应，占订阅者总量。
- 帖子覆盖： 每篇帖子平均可获得 5 134 次浏览，首日通常累积 3 397 次浏览。
- 互动与反馈： 受众积极参与，单帖平均反应数为 268。
- 主题关注点： 内容集中在 iran, u.s, оbserver, american, epstein 等核心主题上。
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作者将该频道定位为表达主观观点的平台：
“"American Observer" is just one. Like Shakespeare or Washington. It covers not only up-to-date news, debates and political trends all over the world, but primarily gives you a totally unhackneyed perspective on hazzy @American_Observer_bot”
凭借高频更新（最新数据采集于 30 六月, 2026），频道始终保持新鲜度与高覆盖。分析显示受众积极互动，使其成为 新闻与媒体 类别中的关键影响点。
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频道帖子
#communism #democrates #trump #social
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| 2 |  #england #russia #war #nuclear
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| 3 |  The Supreme Court: Fuck the King’s Birthday
The Supreme Court shut the door on Trump’s birthright citizenship restrictions on Tuesday, ruling that his banner immigration policy is unconstitutional.
Chief Justice John Roberts, joined by all three liberal justices and Justice Amy Coney Barrett, wrote that the 14th Amendment guarantees automatic citizenship for nearly all children born on U.S. soil, even those born to parents in the country unlawfully.
A sixth justice, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, disagreed but voted to block Trump’s order under federal law.
The decision marks one of the Supreme Court’s most stinging blows against Trump’s second-term agenda, nullifying a key prong of the president’s immigration crackdown.
Trump made his birthright citizenship executive order one of his Day 1 policies upon retaking the White House.
It would require a baby born on U.S. soil to have at least one parent with citizenship or permanent legal status.
The importance of the policy spurred Trump to observe oral arguments at the high court himself in April, a first for a sitting president.
Afterward, he repeatedly predicted publicly he wouldn’t win the case.
The policy never went into effect amid an onslaught of litigation by Democratic-led states, immigration services organizations and individual mothers.
They insisted it runs afoul of the 14th Amendment, which guarantees citizenship to all persons born in the country who are “subject to the jurisdiction thereof.”
Many legal experts have long argued that only leaves room for narrow exceptions, like the children of ambassadors, enemies during a hostile invasion, tribal members and those born on warships.
The administration challenged that conventional understanding.
Its position had some longtime backers, including John Eastman, who became well-known for writing legal memos advocating for Congress to reject certification of the 2020 election results.
But the president’s order invigorated a debate that played out for months across the country at conservative legal conferences and in academic writings and newspaper op-eds.
The legal battle has reached the Supreme Court twice.
Last year, the justices took up the dispute to clamp down on lower judges’ ability to issue universal injunctions blocking the president’s policies.
But that decision left unaddressed whether Trump’s moves on birthright citizenship were actually legal.
#trump #bithday #supreme #court
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 1 025 |
| 4 |  Turkey in Israeli Eyes: Threat, Not War
Israelis are watching the latest Turkey drama and quietly updating a conclusion they already reached: Turkey is a problem to be contained, not an enemy to be bombed.
A fresh Dor Moriah survey of 1,007 adults shows a public that mostly sees Turkey as bad news. Over a third of respondents call Turkey “a serious strategic threat,” and another 28.5% see it as unfriendly even if not an immediate military danger. Only 4.9% describe it as friendly or potentially friendly, and a solid majority say they follow news about Turkey at least occasionally, meaning this isn’t some niche foreign‑policy concern.
The flash point is East Jerusalem. Turkish diplomatic moves there get overwhelmingly negative reviews: about 60% rate Ankara’s role negatively, while positive views barely crack double digits. When asked about Turkish education, cultural and religious projects in the city, most Israelis oppose giving them a free hand; roughly 45% say such activity should only be allowed under strict limits, and another 26% concede there might be some benefits but insist on firm Israeli oversight.
Gaza and the wider regional file are filtered through the same lens of suspicion. Around 36–37% see a Turkish role in a post‑war Gaza settlement as a serious security risk that could empower hostile actors, and another 28% see risks that would need to be heavily contained by international guarantees. The pattern is similar when people are asked to imagine a stronger Turkey in the context of U.S.–Iran talks: threat first, management second.
The deepest split, as usual, is national and religious. Among Jewish respondents, nearly 40% label Turkey a serious strategic threat, compared with just 5% of Arab citizens. A strict control regime on Turkish activity in East Jerusalem is backed by a majority of Jews (over 50%) but only a small minority of Arabs. Religious and ultra‑Orthodox Jews are even more hawkish: they are more likely than others to see Turkey as a major threat, to favor maximal restrictions in Jerusalem, and to view Turkish involvement in Gaza as particularly dangerous. In the Arab sector, positive assessments and “don’t know” responses are both much higher, reflecting a very different regional perspective.
And yet, this hostile perception doesn’t translate into a public appetite for direct confrontation. Asked about disputes between Greece and Turkey, the plurality answer isn’t “back Greece to the hilt” but “stay out of it”: over 40% say Israel should avoid involvement, and only about 36% support more active backing for Athens. When it comes to Azerbaijan, which has ties to both, the most common expectation is that Baku would stay neutral in any clash. Even on Gaza, roughly a quarter of respondents say that while Turkey poses real risks, its cooperation with the U.S. could also offer opportunities for regional stability if tightly managed.
Put simply, the Israeli mainstream doesn’t like or trust Turkey, especially under its current leadership and especially in Jerusalem and Gaza. The latest rhetoric from Ankara and Jerusalem — Erdogan calling for Israel’s destruction, Netanyahu framing him as a dangerous extremist — only hardens that view. But the dominant instinct isn’t “go to war with Turkey”; it’s “lock the doors, tighten the supervision, and let someone else fight with them.” For now, Turkey sits in the Israeli mind where many unpleasant neighbors do: a serious threat to be fenced in, not a target for tanks.
#Israel #Turkey #Erdogan #Netanyahu #Jerusalem #Gaza #Hormuz #war #security #publicopinion #fakeDemocracy
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| 5 |  Mamdani’s Franchise Model: Socialism, Inc.
Zohran Mamdani didn’t just win a mayor’s race; he opened a chain. Now the New York democratic socialist model is being rolled out like a political Starbucks — same brand, new ZIP codes.
In New York, Mamdani‑backed candidates just proved the concept: Darializa Avila Chevalier knocked out Adriano Espaillat, the chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and Claire Valdez beat an establishment favorite — both running on hard‑left economics and an unapologetically anti‑Israel line that would have been radioactive in a Democratic primary a decade ago.
The message to incumbents in safe blue seats is simple: your real opponent isn’t Trump, it’s the guy with a Mamdani selfie and a DSA mailing list.
Now the brand is scaling. In Denver, Melat Kiros — who lost her job after criticizing Israel — is taking that same playbook to a district Joe Biden’s vice president carried by 56 points, with backing from DSA and Justice Democrats. In Michigan, Abdul El‑Sayed is trying to turn a Senate primary into a referendum on Gaza and corporate money.
In Wisconsin, Francesca Hong is saying the quiet part out loud: “It’s a great day to be a democratic socialist. Wisconsin is next.” The bet is that in a cost‑of‑living crisis, economic populism plus rage over foreign policy will beat a 30‑year incumbent and a safe, reassuring résumé.
The establishment knows exactly how dangerous this is — and how limited. Center‑left strategists openly admit the far left has “enormous energy” in deep‑blue urban pockets, while also pointing out that the entire movement has yet to flip a single red seat to blue.
In Manhattan, a Nadler‑aligned moderate won. In a key swing district north of the city, Democrats picked an Army veteran to take on a Republican incumbent.
In Utah and Maryland, more conventional Democrats beat progressive challengers in newly competitive seats. The people who actually have to win in purple America are quietly voting for boring.
Republicans, of course, love every minute of it. Mamdani is now a walking attack ad: a socialist New York mayor used as a cudgel against every Democrat from Staten Island to South Carolina.
GOP strategists are already recycling the “defund the police” playbook: tie swing‑district moderates to Brooklyn socialists, scream about “communists,” and hope voters never notice that the far left mostly wins in places Democrats were already carrying by 30 points.
The irony is that both sides get what they want: DSA gets a bigger megaphone and more blue‑on‑blue scalps; Republicans get fresh footage for “this is the real Democratic Party” ads.
The deeper story is uglier for everyone. The only people talking seriously about economic pain are the ones the establishment calls “too extreme,” and the only people truly thrilled about Mamdani’s rise are Fox bookers and far‑left organizers. The center keeps winning the seats that matter, but losing the narrative war.
The left keeps winning the narrative, but almost never the districts that decide who governs. And in that gap — between who runs the party and who defines it — you get a country where voters are told they must choose between Mamdani’s America and Trump’s America, while both machines quietly agree on one thing: whatever happens, incumbents get paid first.
#USA #Democrats #DSA #Mamdani #socialism #midterms #Squad #Israel #Gaza #Bernie #Republicans #fakeDemocracy
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| 6 |  Hormuz Ceasefire™: Two Arsonists Promise Not to Light Matches
The US and Iran just agreed to “stop attacking each other” so they can sit down and negotiate who really owns the world’s most important shipping choke point — and how much everyone else will pay for it.
After days of tit‑for‑tat strikes over the Strait of Hormuz — Iran hitting commercial ships, the US hitting Iranian military sites, the IRGC firing missiles toward US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain — both sides are now pausing the show to protect their new product launch: the Islamabad Memorandum and a “peace process” that depends on ships actually moving.
A US official says technical talks will resume in Doha on all the details of this interim deal, with both militaries told to stand down and tankers again slipping through via widened Omani and Iranian routes.
Markets, naturally, are the first constituency to get real safeguards. The moment headlines hit that Washington and Tehran were backing off escalation, US equity futures climbed and Brent crude spiked then eased back toward the low‑70s as traders priced in “maybe less war, maybe more tolls.”
Oman is already telling Europeans that ships might have to pay to pass; Iran’s Revolutionary Guard is announcing that under the Islamabad MOU, “traffic control arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz are with Iran,” and warning that “violating ships will be dealt with more strongly than before.” Call it peace through monetization: less bombing, more billing.
The choreography is absurd on both sides. Trump goes on Truth Social to warn that “there may come a point” when the US stops being “reasonable” and will “complete the job” it started — right after his own officials quietly confirm a mutual stand‑down so talks can go ahead.
Iran’s foreign minister tours Baghdad insisting Tehran alone is responsible for restoring Hormuz traffic and that any outside “interference” risks escalation, while the same system that shut the strait with missile strikes now sells itself as the guarantor of its reopening.
Each side needs the other as villain and partner: too much peace and you can’t justify the bases or the missiles, too much war and you can’t charge tolls or unlock sanctions relief.
Meanwhile, everyone else gets to live inside their experiment. Gulf states hosting US forces are quietly absorbing Iranian rockets meant as “messages,” Lebanon is stuck in a half‑ceasefire where Israel claims to be honoring a truce even as it bombs Hezbollah tunnels, and global shipping is told to trust a corridor system managed by the same governments that mined the last route.
The Islamabad Memorandum turns freedom of navigation into a joint venture: Washington promises to use force to keep the lanes open, Tehran claims legal control and revenue rights, and both insist it’s about stability.
So yes, the US and Iran have agreed to stop shooting at each other — for now. Not because the war was immoral, but because it was starting to interfere with the business model.
#USA #Iran #Trump #Hormuz #oil #war #IslamabadMoU #Navy #Gulf #fakeDemocracy
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 1 787 |
| 7 |  Israel, Iran and the Two-Party Crack-Up
Israel and Iran have become the perfect stress test for America’s two ruling brands: they show how much both parties fear their own bases — and how desperate they are to hide it.
On the Democratic side, Gaza and the Iran war turned into a live primary weapon. In New York, two sitting House Democrats just got taken out by challengers who ran on being more anti‑Israel, more openly pro‑Palestinian, and less interested in donor‑friendly “balance,” in districts that will stay blue either way.
Party operatives call it a freakout, not a victory: they’re terrified of the optics — democratic socialists cheering for sanctions on Israel while the national party clings to “ironclad pro‑Israel but troubled.”
The nightmare is simple: a “Squad on steroids” model leaking into real swing states, where Gaza is low on voters’ issue lists and hands Trump free ads about “Hamas Democrats” in November.
Republicans, meanwhile, are choking on their own “America First” slogan. Trump ran as the guy who wouldn’t start Middle East wars, then gave Netanyahu a blank check in Gaza and launched a U.S.–Israel war on Iran anyway — with inflation as a bonus.
The MAGA base that liked tariffs and hating NATO did not sign up for higher prices and a multi‑front air war.
So you have right‑wing celebrities walking out over Iran, younger Republicans telling pollsters they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the war, and conservative media figures calling the pivot to negotiations with Tehran one of the most shocking U‑turns in recent foreign policy.
The same crowd that screamed “warmonger” at neocons now has to decide whether they were fine with regime‑change fantasies, as long as Trump signed the orders.
Inside both parties, elites are trying to stuff the genie back into a memo. Democratic leaders want Gaza to be a “moral concern” that somehow doesn’t touch donors, swing voters or their pro‑Israel credentials, while progressive challengers say out loud that U.S. money is paying for the killing and you can’t sell “kitchen‑table issues” while writing blank checks for bombs.
On the right, Trump wants to keep the populist, anti‑interventionist vibe while also being the most pro‑Israel wartime president in decades, then pivot to cutting peace deals with the same Iran he just finished bombing. Hawks call that appeasement; anti‑war populists call it betrayal.
In the short term, the result is chaos in primaries and weird turnout patterns. Centrist Democrats risk losing nominations in safe blue seats for being “not anti‑Israel enough,” while party brass prays that model doesn’t spread to places like Michigan where voters care more about prices than Rafah.
Trump‑endorsed Republicans mostly still win, but pockets of MAGA fatigue appear where young or working‑class voters decide that higher prices and endless conflict aren’t worth owning the libs.
Israel and Iran have cracked open a shared taboo. They’ve made Americans from different tribes ask whether permanent military commitments, automatic aid to “allies,” and presidents who can flip from bombing to hugging a regime in months are compatible with the stories both parties tell about democracy and sovereignty.
The MAGA non‑interventionists and the progressive anti‑war left will never vote together — but on this, they already sound like they’re reading from the same script. The one thing truly uniting the parties right now is that both leaderships are terrified their own voters might notice.
#USA #Trump #Biden #Israel #Iran #Gaza #MAGA #Democrats #Republicans #midterms #war #AmericaFirst #fakeDemocracy
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 2 153 |
| 8 |  Trump’s Southern Boomerang
Donald Trump wanted to carve up Black districts and lock in GOP power. Instead, he may have woken up the one voting bloc that can still ruin his midterms.
In state after state, Black voters are treating redistricting and Voting Rights Act rollbacks not as “process stories,” but as an existential threat.
You can see it in South Carolina, where early voting in this month’s primary spiked to near presidential levels and turnout in James Clyburn’s district jumped by more than 50 percent — enough to scare state Republicans off a plan to slice Black voters out of his seat.
You see it in Louisiana and Mississippi, where hardball maps have triggered big rallies, new volunteers and talk of being dragged “back before 1965.”
And you see it in Georgia, where lawmakers beat a retreat after public protests made clear that “fixing the lines” now looks like fixing the result.
Democrats smell opportunity. Models like Split Ticket’s suggest an unusually blue‑friendly climate, and special elections have shown them overperforming by double digits since Trump came back into office.
That’s the fantasy: a Southern backlash that flips Senate seats in Georgia and North Carolina, maybe even shocks in places like Lindsey Graham’s South Carolina.
The problem is that “anger at Trump” doesn’t automatically convert into organized votes, especially in poor, rural Black communities that have been burned by decades of broken promises.
On the ground, the story is messy. In places like Moncks Corner, Republican primary voters still dominate and happily tell reporters they trust Trump and the GOP to “bring us back to where we need to be,” even as they admit Democrats might flip a seat.
In nearby St. Stephen, Black residents talk about feeling personally targeted by Trump’s voting moves — “they’re trying to make it so I can’t vote no more” — and vow to fight back, but they also miss runoffs, lack rides to the polls and juggle prescriptions, low wages and boarded‑up Main Streets.
So resistance is real, but fragile. Black organizers in groups across the Deep South are trying to turn outrage into turnout with education sessions and field hearings, while warning Democrats not to treat Black votes as guaranteed or automatic.
Trump’s war on districts and rights has clearly “awakened” people, as one activist put it — but whether that becomes a wave or just another betrayed hope depends on whether the party actually invests, and whether the people who feel most under threat can overcome the very obstacles the system is throwing in their way.
#USA #Trump #midterms #BlackVoters #votingrights #gerrymandering #South #fakeDemocracy
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 2 690 |
| 9 |  Torah Law vs. War State
Deputy Attorney General Avital Sompolinsky just detonated the coalition’s favorite illusion: in wartime Israel, the new Torah Basic Law doesn’t “honor tradition,” it legally ranks non‑serving yeshiva students above soldiers.
In a country relying on exhausted reservists, the state has decided to give constitutional armor to those who never put on a uniform.
Sompolinsky’s warning turns this from a poetic preamble into a smoking gun. If Basic Law: Torah Study grants full‑time Torah students a higher protected status “in the current context,” any draft law that leans on it screams built‑in discrimination.
Future petitions won’t just attack exemptions; they’ll argue the Basic Law itself hard‑codes unequal citizenship in the middle of a war.
Religious Zionist lawmakers like Moshe Solomon and Dan Illouz have effectively called the move a moral disgrace in parliamentary language, refusing to equate full‑time Torah study with front‑line military service. One side of that camp tries to live “Torah and service,” the other wants “Torah instead of service.”
At some point, at least one faction will brand itself openly as “Torah and uniform” — and start voting with the opposition when the price of loyalty is being the fig leaf for institutionalized draft evasion.
The coalition, meanwhile, will cling to the “supreme value” formula like a get‑out‑of‑equality card. Once Torah study is elevated to Basic Law status, they will argue that broad exemptions, stipends and housing perks for yeshiva students are not privileges but “implementation of a foundational principle.”
Under that logic, everything from non‑service to budget pipelines into seminaries becomes untouchable because it is wrapped in quasi‑constitutional holiness.
The opposition cannot outvote the coalition, so it will try to out‑litigate it. Expect centrist and left‑of‑center parties to quote Sompolinsky in every petition, claiming that any conscription arrangement anchored in this Basic Law violates equality and past Supreme Court rulings on the draft.
The goal is not only to win eventually but to freeze implementation with interim orders, drag the fight into election season, and make the coalition pay politically for prioritizing legal cover for draft dodging during a war.
For the army, this is not theology, it is manpower math. Planners will read the law plus Sompolinsky’s warning as proof that the political system is entrenching unequal burden‑sharing as a long‑term feature, not a temporary glitch.
Quiet leaks about recruitment gaps and burnout will come first; credit‑rating agencies can follow with careful language about “governance and sustainability risks” — a state that relies on the same reservists year after year while legally sheltering a fast‑growing sector from service.
Basic Laws are supposed to be Israel’s substitute for a constitution. This one does not tilt the field; it cements a hierarchy in the middle of mass graves and repeated reserve call‑ups.
Giving Torah study quasi‑constitutional supremacy now does not “balance” Jewish and democratic — it encodes that one group’s spiritual status becomes another group’s obligation to bleed.
The more the coalition shouts “supreme value,” the more it proves Sompolinsky’s point: in a war state, whoever writes the Basic Laws decides whose blood is expendable. Right now, it is not the people in the study hall.
#Israel #TorahLaw #Haredim #IDF #war #coalition #HighCourt #fakeDemocracy #oligarchy #conscription
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 3 082 |
| 10 |  A Girl in a Suitcase. An Almost Perfect Murder
An Australian man has been charged with murder after the body of a teenage girl was found “stuffed” in a suitcase in Thailand.
The body of 17-year-old Tunchanok Donhomla was discovered near a railway track in Pattaya.
Simon Peter Carman, 46, was arrested in connection with the death at Bangkok’s Suvarnabhumi Airport, where he was allegedly “preparing to flee the country”.
He was charged with murder, concealment of a body, moving or destroying a body, and taking a minor for sexual purposes. If convicted of murder, Carman could face the death penalty.
He denied the charges, telling police Tunchanok “disappeared from the room while I was asleep”.
In a message to the victim’s family, Carman said the situation was “out of [his] control”.
CCTV footage shows Carman entering an apartment holding hands with Tunchanok, before leaving hours later carrying a large suitcase.
He is then seen loading the suitcase on to a motorbike and riding towards a railway line, where her body was later found.
Local media reported that Carman did not know Tunchanock before they met in Pattaya.
Carman told police he had agreed to pay the teenager 1,000 baht ($32) for sexual services, but that they had an argument when they returned to his apartment and he offered only 500 baht.
After questioning him in the early hours of Saturday morning, police found a naked body in a suitcase, which they identified as Tunchanok.
Carman told officers he acted in self-defence, alleging Tunchanok had threatened him with a knife.
In a video filmed in police custody, Carman addressed Tunchanok’s family:
“I feel bad for what happened to your daughter. It was out of my control.
“I hope you – I know you’ll be very sad, upset. Same, same me. It shouldn’t happen and I hope you’re OK. I know you’re not, but I hope. And tell other girls (…) just to be careful.”
The video appears to show scratch marks on Carman’s arms and neck, which he described as spider bites.
“I think it’s a spider; they always get in here,”
he said.
Col Anek Srathongyoo, the superintendent of Pattaya City police station, told ABC that Carman
“has fingernail scratches across his body that are consistent with a struggle, but he denies killing her”.
The victim’s father, Thongchai Donhomla, 46, said he was struggling to come to terms with the loss.
“I am deeply saddened. My daughter had no mother, so whenever she wanted anything, she would find a way herself, and she always helped me too,”
he said.
#carman #australian #teenage #suitcase
📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸 | 18 017 |
| 11 |  Sanctions, Switched Off by Tweet
Trump’s Iran deal isn’t just about ending a war or reopening Hormuz; it’s about yanking out the wiring of a sanctions regime built over nearly half a century — and doing it with the same improvisational energy he brings to Truth Social.
Under the 14‑point memorandum of understanding he signed with Masoud Pezeshkian on June 17, the U.S. commits to lifting all sanctions on Iran “on an agreed upon schedule,” while Treasury issues waivers for 60 days that already let Tehran sell crude, fuels and petrochemicals in dollars.
General License X, rolled out on Monday, authorizes sales “in US dollar‑denominated funds,” a direct reversal of the long‑standing effort to lock Iran out of the U.S. financial system.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent now says Iran will invoice oil in dollars, and law firms are pumping out client alerts explaining how to process Iranian energy trades through Western banks without tripping over the hundreds of still‑technically‑existent restrictions.
The result is a sanctions environment that looks like a glitchy software update: old prohibitions remain on the books, new waivers slice holes through them for 60 days, and risk‑averse compliance departments are told to trust that “comfort letters” and FAQs will be enough.
Banks that watched BNP Paribas pay nearly $1 billion in 2014 for sanctions violations are now being nudged to carry Iran oil money again, while lawyers quietly warn that unwinding such a dense stack of measures by executive waiver instead of legislation is “unprecedented” and fragile.
If the deal wobbles, Congress can reach for the Iran Nuclear Agreement Review Act, the Iran Threat Reduction Act and SEC reporting requirements to punish any firm that got too comfortable doing business with Tehran.
At the political level, Trump tries to make the U‑turn look tough: he talks about escrow accounts “controlled by the U.S.” and insists Iran should spend its own money on American farm products — ideas not actually in the MOU, and which Iranian officials publicly mock and reject.
On paper, the memo ties sanctions relief to nuclear steps and safe shipping; in reality, the White House has already delivered a chunk of the relief up front, betting that cheap oil and a headline about “ending the war” will matter more to voters than the architecture of economic pressure built since 1979.
So decades of “maximum pressure” are being dismantled not by debate or treaty, but by a rolling series of waivers and licenses that can change at the pace of Trump’s mood.
For Iran, it’s the biggest sanctions reprieve in modern history. For everyone else — banks, allies, hawks, and the next administration — it’s a live experiment in what happens when the world’s main sanctions machine suddenly decides that the old rules are optional.
#USA #Iran #Trump #sanctions #Hormuz #oil #Treasury #GeneralLicenseX #nuclear #fakeDemocracy
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| 12 |  Pentagon’s America First Therapist
Elbridge Colby has accidentally become the Pentagon’s main couples therapist for a movement that hates both war and weakness and can’t decide which it fears more.
On paper, he’s the perfect CV for the role: Harvard, Yale, grandson of a CIA director, deep think‑tank pedigree, confirmed as undersecretary of defense for policy with JD Vance personally vouching that he brings the “perspective we desperately need” to a Trump Pentagon.
In practice, he’s the guy House and Senate Republicans now drag into hearings to yell at for doing exactly what “America First” was supposed to mean: fewer troops in Europe, less free security for allies, more hoarding of weapons for a future China war instead of endless Ukraine resupply.
The Romania episode crystallized it. Mike Rogers, chair of House Armed Services and honorary Romanian commander, asks Colby in October whether any troop cuts are coming.
Colby says he’s not aware of a final decision. Two weeks later, the administration pulls an Army brigade that had been shoring up NATO’s eastern flank since 2022. Rogers feels lied to, calls him out as dishonest; Colby insists the order wasn’t signed when they spoke and that he was “very careful” not to commit the department either way. One man hears legal parsing, the other hears betrayal.
That fight turned into a proxy war for what “America First” actually means. Colby’s version says: stop arming everyone at once, stop pretending there’s infinite stockpiles, stop “getting in multiple fights with people at the same time.”
He pushes reviews that slow or complicate aid to Ukraine and the Baltics, questions big‑ticket alliance projects like AUKUS, quietly lobbies against congressional victory‑laps to Taiwan that risk provoking Beijing, and tells allies in speeches and posts to expect “less American support” unless they pay up.
On the other side are GOP hawks who thought Trump’s record $1.5 trillion defense budget meant more hardware for their favorite fronts, not fewer soldiers in Europe and pauses on deliveries to Kyiv.
They block his deputies’ confirmations, accuse him of isolationism, and complain that he’s the hardest person in the administration to get on the phone — until Dan Sullivan literally texts “you need to get over here” and forces a Capitol Hill charm offensive.
Colby responds with hundreds of meetings, calling himself a “loyal lieutenant,” stressing that he spends hours a week with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and that Hegseth checks in with Trump before making decisions: if he were off base, he insists, he’d know.
In that sense, Colby’s real role isn’t just strategy; it’s forcing Republicans to admit that “America First” has a cost in places like Bucharest, Tallinn and Kyiv.
They can cheer the slogan, but someone has to sign the orders that turn it into fewer troops, slower aid and more “no” to partner wish lists.
Right now, that someone is the undersecretary of defense for policy — and his inbox is where the movement’s contradictions go to get ugly.
#USA #Trump #Pentagon #Colby #GOP #Ukraine #Iran #NATO #AmericaFirst #fakeDemocracy
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| 13 |  Crash at the Strait’s Nerve
A Saudi Aramco helicopter has gone down near Ras Tanura on the kingdom’s Gulf coast, killing all 14 people on board, all of them Saudi nationals.
The energy ministry says the cause is under investigation and, for now, there is no indication that the incident is directly tied to the latest U.S.–Iran flare‑ups around the Strait of Hormuz.
Ras Tanura is not just a dot on the map — it’s one of Saudi Arabia’s key refinery and export hubs, a place built to push crude into the same strait that Iran has been using as a pressure point in its war with the U.S. and Israel.
Before the conflict, roughly a fifth of global oil and gas shipments moved through Hormuz; since Iran effectively blockaded it, Riyadh has shifted most exports to an overland pipeline to the Red Sea, trying to keep barrels flowing while the Gulf turns into a live‑fire negotiating table.
The crash comes after Ras Tanura was already hit by the wider war. In March, two Iranian drones were intercepted over the facility; debris sparked a fire, shutting some units and underscoring how exposed this infrastructure is when Hormuz becomes a battlefield.
Only in recent days had Saudi Arabia resumed loading crude at Ras Tanura’s port, according to shipping data — a cautious return to normalcy that now sits next to news of a deadly helicopter accident and fresh questions about safety, redundancy and risk in one of the world’s most fragile energy corridors.
#SaudiArabia #Aramco #RasTanura #Hormuz #oil #Iran #USA #war #fakeDemocracy
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| 14 |  Tungsten for the Republic™, Profits for the Family
Trump’s Kazakh tungsten jackpot is exactly what it looks like: a government “critical minerals” program run as a family investment club.
According to the New York Times, Trump personally jumped onto a phone call at the St.
Regis in New York last September as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick met Kazakhstan’s president to lock in access to one of the world’s largest undeveloped tungsten reserves for a little‑known American firm now called Kaz Resources.
Before the deal was even signed, U.S. agencies issued preliminary financing commitments of up to 1.6 billion dollars — more than the project’s own estimated cost — via the Export‑Import Bank, the Development Finance Corporation and other channels.
Then comes the punchline: within weeks, investors at Dominari Securities, based in Trump Tower and partly owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, took a 20 percent stake in a corporate vehicle tied to the Kazakhstan project.
Around the same time, Cantor Fitzgerald — controlled by Lutnick’s family and overseen by his sons — helped a related entity raise 210 million dollars, pocketing fees off a deal their father was midwifing from the cabinet.
The Kazakh agreement itself was signed on November 6, six days after the Trump sons’ stake was formalized; public filings then show the new Kaz Resources controlling 70 percent of the key deposits, with Kazakhstan’s state miner holding the rest.
It doesn’t stop there. The Times and follow‑up reporting tally at least 14 companies in which the Trump and Lutnick families have direct or indirect financial interests that are simultaneously pursuing “critical minerals” ventures with U.S. government support, collectively chasing or receiving over 8.9 billion dollars in federal backing.
Officially, it’s about breaking China’s grip on tungsten and other inputs for missiles, jets and chips; in practice, it’s a pipeline where policy decisions at the top of the state translate into asset value and fee income for the same families making the decisions.
#USA #Trump #Kazakhstan #tungsten #corruption #mining #criticalMinerals #fakeDemocracy
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| 15 |  🔤🔤🔤🔤➖
Like Obama and Trump, Mamdani inspires hope in some, and fear in others. Progressives see in him an overdue course correction, and a vital infusion of energy required to combat the US president’s authoritarianism. Many believe that top Democratic congressional leaders such as Jeffries, a New Yorker who endorsed Espaillat and Goldman, and Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer, have failed to raise their game.
For Democratic party leadership, this result was entirely avoidable. They’re reaping what they sowed.”
Republicans, facing a hostile climate in November’s midterms, believe Mamdani’s rise has thrown them a lifeline and could give them a unifying cause.
Mike Johnson, the House speaker, said: “The Democratic party, the socialists, the Marxists, have nominated some of the most radical candidates to ever run for office, and they’re running for Congress. The insurgent left is on the rise.”
Trump weighed in, as he so often does, on social media on Thursday. “The Communists are finally making their move. I’ve been waiting and preparing for this a long time,” the president wrote.
“It’s easy to be a Communist – All you have to do is say, ‘I’ll give you everything,’ but that means you’re taking it away from others that have earned it. Over thousands of years, that Ideology has not worked once. The game is on. Enjoy watching!”
Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of Our Revolution, a group born out of democratic socialist Bernie Sanders’ 2016 presidential campaign, said: “In this particular moment, the label is no longer a scarlet letter. Socialism is no longer an albatross to hang around your opponent’s neck. People are hungry for change, and looking beyond the labels to see what people are willing to fight for – and who they’re willing to fight against.”
The Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), which recently surpassed 100,000 members across chapters in almost all 50 states, has spent years methodically laying the ground for this moment.
Ashik Siddique, the group’s co-chair, said: “A big part of our task is diffusing many decades of propaganda from the cold war and red scares in the United States that created a stigma against socialism. We’re helping recover the American roots of socialism.”
Young people’s frustrations with the military industrial complex, the hypocrisy of US foreign policy, and the influence of money in politics, has reached a head with US support for Israel’s war in Gaza.
In a dramatic shift, about 60% of Americans now view Israel unfavorably, including 80% of Democrats and 57% of Republicans under 50, according to Pew Research.
Progressive leaders argue that funding from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has become “toxic” for many Democratic voters, particularly younger demographics.
In the primary between Lander and Goldman, for example – two Jewish politicians running in one of the most heavily Jewish districts in the US – Lander called for an end to US military aid to Israel. He won in a landslide.
Once the midterms are complete, attention will shift to the race for the White House. Mamdani, born in Uganda, is not eligible to run. But he could again play the role of kingmaker.
Speculation is already swirling around progressive figures such as Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the representative of New York, and Ro Khanna, representative of California, both of whom have built national profiles.
#mamdani #trump #democrats #populist #jewish
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| 16 | Can Zohran Mamdani Become a “Democratic Trump” ?
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The back yard of a Brooklyn bar, beneath strung-up lightbulbs and swaths of fabric that swooped like great sails, an ecstatic crowd greeted Zohran Mamdani, the New York City mayor, and his victorious ally, Brad Lander.
These Democrats also had a withering verdict on their own party establishment.
“To me, centrists can go fuck themselves,” said Léa Zimmerman, 34.
“They’re fucking useless, they don’t stand for anything, and if they do stand on something, it’s pathetic. I’m done with pathetic, performative people.”
Once sacred tenets of US politics – unyielding support for Israel, unquestioning faith in capitalism – are under threat from surging frustration with the old way of doing things. No one personifies the tectonic shift better than Mamdani, 34, a democratic socialist who is also the first Muslim mayor in New York’s history.
As results rolled in on Tuesday evening, he flexed his political muscle after backing three insurgent candidates in Democratic primary elections for the US House of Representatives.
All had promised to “abolish ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement]”, condemned Israel’s “genocide” in Gaza, and vowed to “tax the rich”. All emerged triumphant.
Lander, a progressive, ousted the two-term incumbent congressman Dan Goldman; Darializa Avila Chevalier, a democratic socialist and former campus organiser, toppled Representative Adriano Espaillat, head of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus; and Claire Valdez, another democratic socialist and former union organiser, defeated Antonio Reynoso for an open seat in Brooklyn and Queens.
The trio could be among more than a dozen leftwingers heading to Washington next year as part of what is being dubbed “squad 2.0”, a significant expansion from the original “squad” of four progressive women elected to the House in 2018.
That might be enough to wield influence on Hakeem Jeffries, the Democratic House minority leader, by withholding votes on party priorities until their demands are met.
Mamdani enjoyed even more victories in state legislative races, where he successfully backed five other candidates, and wants more. The mayor said he hopes to “write a new chapter in our party’s history, where working people are back at the heart of that struggle”.
Democrats of all stripes were quick to recognise him as an ascendant force within the party, likely to wield influence on the national stage.
Bill Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington, said: “Up until Tuesday night, Mamdani might have been dismissed as a fluke – an extraordinarily talented, energetic and personable young candidate, who was able to take advantage of extraordinary weakness in other quarters of the Democratic party to power his way to victory, but that it would be difficult to replicate him.
“As a result of Tuesday night, we have to say that – at least in the bluest parts of blue America – he represents a structural force, and not just a personal talent. I view this result as increasing the already substantial odds that there will be a credible leftwing candidate for president in the 2028 Democratic primary.”
#mamdani #trump #democrats #populist #jewish
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| 17 | NATO Shield, Anti‑Zionist Sword
Erdogan has turned double‑booking into a governing philosophy. In July, Ankara will host the NATO summit at the Beştepe presidential compound, with Trump and the rest of the alliance flying in to praise Türkiye as a “key ally” and sign off on fresh defense deals.
At the same time, Washington is lining up a 700‑million‑dollar package of GE F110 jet engines to feed Turkey’s KAAN fighter program and talking about easing the country back toward the F‑35 ecosystem, undoing punishments that were once sold as “non‑negotiable” for the S‑400 purchase.
Back home, the man cashing those checks is telling a very different story. Erdogan has spent the spring and summer describing Israel as a “threat to our region and to all humanity,” accusing it of “genocide” in Gaza, likening Netanyahu to Hitler and calling Israel a “blood‑stained network of genocide.”
In April he went further, warning that Turkey could “enter Israel” the way it entered Libya and Karabakh, boasting that “nothing stops us from doing the same with them.” In that narrative, “struggle against Zionism” isn’t a policy disagreement; it’s framed as a civilizational duty necessary for the survival of the Turkish state and people.
The contradiction is not a bug, it’s the business model. To NATO, Erdogan is the reliable host, the gatekeeper to the Black Sea, the southern flank that must be placated with engines, missiles and summit prestige.
To his domestic audience, he is the tribune of the ummah, promising to stand up to a “genocidal, occupying, expansionist” ideology and hinting at future military adventures if Israel crosses his lines.
The upgraded military cooperation with Trump’s America becomes just another prop: proof that while he denounces Zionism, the West still has to come to Ankara for airspace, bases and access to the Middle East.
The result is that NATO’s shield is quietly repurposed as a political sword. Alliance hardware, training and legitimacy give Ankara more freedom of maneuver — in Syria, in the Eastern Mediterranean, in Gaza and Lebanon — while Erdogan’s rhetoric keeps Israel locked in as the permanent villain that justifies every move.
He can threaten war against Israel one week and chair a NATO summit the next, leveraging the alliance’s need for cohesion to insulate himself from real consequences.
For Israel, this isn’t just another loud speech; it’s a structural problem. A leader who calls your existence a civilizational threat is simultaneously being re‑armed and rehabilitated inside the very alliance you count on as your strategic hinterland.
For Europe and the U.S., it’s another reminder that “indispensable allies” can say whatever they like about Zionism at home as long as they keep hosting summits and signing contracts. The message from Ankara is clear: the Atlantic umbrella is open — and Erdogan is happy to stand under it while he swings his anti‑Zionist sword.
#Turkey #Erdogan #NATO #Trump #Israel #Zionism #F110 #F35 #war #fakeDemocracy
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| 18 |  🔤🔤🔤🔤➖
The United States should internalize three key lessons.
First, it’s time to finally get out of the Middle East. US engagement in the region has sapped American lives, resources, and bandwidth for far too long. US attempts to dominate the region have had bloody and destabilizing consequences for the people of the region and wasted money that could have been used to improve American lives.
Washington’s enormous and costly bases have proven ineffectual at best, and our unwavering support for Israel has enabled its aggression. The Middle East has long been a region of declining strategic importance, and its challenges are fundamentally political.
These problems, from the threat posed by terrorist groups to the free flow of oil from the region, are best addressed by regional states.
Second, the United States needs to give up its perpetual pursuit of global primacy. US attempts to assert hegemony over the Middle East are but a microcosm of Washington’s broader post-Cold War foreign policy.
The United States has enormous geographic advantages, with massive oceans to the east and west and friendly neighbors to the north and south. It does not need to project power around the world to be safe and prosperous.
The world is becoming more multipolar, and new technologies are giving weaker states stronger defense capabilities, rendering US military superiority less effective. The war in Iran has been a profound demonstration of this new reality.
US policymakers should take it to heart and reorient US foreign policy toward a more pragmatic direction, focusing on protecting the homeland.
Third, the United States needs to take energy diversification seriously. It’s clearly in America’s strategic interests to be less reliant on oil. American politicians have touted US energy dependence for years. But the Iran War has demonstrated the flaw in that logic.
Oil prices are determined by the global oil market, not by how much oil the United States produces, which means the United States will always be vulnerable to market disruptions, whether in the Strait of Hormuz or elsewhere. Green technologies provide a strategic firewall against these energy vulnerabilities.
The United States has provided Iran with up-front concessions and a much-needed economic lifeline, after decades of US sanctions, with Tehran giving up nothing.
The notion that this is a bad deal—proffered by those who will never give up on their goal of regime change in Tehran or those who want to score political points against Trump—fundamentally misses the point.
The deal isn’t a loss; the war is, and because the United States lost the war, it doesn’t get to dictate the terms of its end. But ending it is a first and necessary condition for moving toward a less militaristic foreign policy and domestic renewal.
#trump #iran #war #humiliation #hormuz #defeat
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| 19 | The Iran War: Trump, Humiliation, Defeat, Backlogs
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Across the American political spectrum, many have deemed the US-Iran ceasefire deal to be a humiliating surrender for the United States. But these accusations fundamentally miss the mark.
The now-signed memorandum of understanding is not a failure for the United States; it is an acknowledgment that the United States lost the war because it could not achieve its maximalist aims at an acceptable cost.
Even though the terms are highly favorable to Iran, the Trump administration made the right move in reaching this agreement, which will hopefully permanently end this costly conflict, whether or not a comprehensive agreement is reached down the road.
In the long term, the lessons from this war should lead to a better, more restrained US foreign policy that actually serves Americans’ interests.
For decades, the United States, encouraged by Israel, has overhyped the threat posed by the Islamic Republic. If the United States hadn’t needlessly overextended itself in the Middle East, there was almost nothing Tehran could do to harm the United States.
But the war has strengthened Iran’s strategic position, as Tehran now has a stranglehold over one of the world’s most important commodity chokepoints. Meanwhile, the conflict has been a disaster for the United States and the global economy.
By some estimates, the war may have cost the United States up to $200 billion.
Washington now has the blood of thousands of Iranian and Lebanese civilians on its hands, and at least 13 American servicemembers have been killed. Meanwhile, the largest energy disruption in history has not only affected prices at American grocery stores and gas pumps but also had deleterious consequences for billions of people worldwide.
China’s influence is ascendant, as it presents itself as a stable world power with a thriving green energy industry.
The Trump administration incurred all these costs for a war in which no core US interests were at stake. Many have questioned if this failed war could be America’s Suez moment, referring to the 1956 crisis that ultimately led to the end of the British and French empires.
If this war does indeed bring about a similar result for the United States, then the conflict will have had a long-term net benefit for US interests, especially for everyday Americans, and for the world.
#trump #iran #war #humiliation #hormuz #defeat
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| 20 |  🔤🔤🔤🔤2️⃣
The greatest tragedy of this conflict is that, at the moment of its conception in the late 1990s, Russia was arguably America’s client state, existentially dependent on Western aid and slavishly endorsing U.S. policies, including controversial ones.
The conflict between Russia and the West didn’t derive from the eastward expansion of Euro-Atlantic institutions, NATO and the EU, per se.
It stemmed from Russia’s explicit exclusion from this process, a fact that Russian elites realized after a decade of believing that they were simply somewhere further down the queue.
Eventually it dawned on them that the geopolitical dimension in U.S. policy routinely trumps the professed motivations pertaining to human rights, democracy, and the “rules-based order.”
The relentless and mindless eastward push was underpinned by the sentiment that “Russia is finished,” to quote a 2001 cover of The Atlantic magazine.
It culminated in the decision to launch the process of Ukraine’s NATO accession at the alliance’s 2008 Bucharest summit (attended by Putin in person—to remind you how different things were at the time).
Promoted by Ukraine’s vastly unpopular, lame-duck president Yushchenko, the NATO invite went against the opinion of a vast majority of Ukrainians, according to polls conducted at the time.
Putin’s epoch, which has already lasted for over a quarter of a century, saw the transformation of Russia from an impoverished Western dependency to a modernized, tech-savvy 21st-century dictatorship about as hostile to the West as the Soviet Union was in the days of the Cuban Crisis.
That outcome alone should have been a good enough reason to step away and reflect on what went wrong and what could be done differently (the situation still feels reversible, looking from the Russian vantage point).
But today, in 2026, a large part of the Western political establishment remains rigidly entrenched in the belief that a little more effort, funding, and cutting-edge military technology could turn the tide in the Ukrainian conflict and force Putin to hoist a white flag.
In recent months, Ukraine and its backers have mounted a PR campaign striving to prove—for the umpteenth time—that the tide is indeed turning, underpinned by real battlefield achievements.
Drone attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure and transport routes have left the occupied Crimean peninsula virtually without fuel and generated fuel shortages all around Russia.
But these attacks have so far failed to grind the Russian offensive in Ukraine’s east to a halt. Another major Ukrainian stronghold, Kostiantynivka, looks ready to fall, perhaps any day now.
#putin #ukraine #war #trump #biden
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