اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈
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The content shared in this Telegram channel is for informational and educational purposes only. The information, insights, and opinions expressed here are based on my own personal learnings and experiences. They do not constitute financial advice!
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پستهای کانال
| 2 |  بدون متن... | 115 |
| 3 | [LONG ARTICLE] 🚀 Should Investors Buy the SpaceX IPO? ❓
A lot of yall have been asking me if they should invest in SpaceX's IPO , here's my research:
SpaceX is clearly one of the most impressive private companies in the world.
It has changed the economics of rocket launches, built Starlink into a serious global connectivity business, and is now positioning itself around AI, data centres, and even orbital compute infrastructure.
But when looking at it as an investment, the key question is not whether SpaceX is an amazing company.
The question is whether the IPO valuation makes sense.
Based on the filing, the IPO price of $135/share would value SpaceX at around $1.69 trillion based on the post-offering share count.
For context, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.
That works out to roughly 90x sales.
Not 90x earnings... 90x revenue.
To put the 90x sales valuation into perspective, many of the best-performing companies in history IPO’ed at much lower revenue multiples.
Roughly speaking:
- Apple IPO’ed around 10–15x sales
- Microsoft IPO’ed around 4x sales
- Nvidia IPO’ed around 4x sales
- Google IPO’ed around 9–16x sales
- Facebook / Meta IPO’ed around 28x sales
- Amazon IPO’ed around 28x sales
- Tesla IPO’ed around 15x sales
Of course, every company is different, and SpaceX is not directly comparable to any single one of them.
But the comparison is still useful because it shows how much future growth is already being priced in.
At around 90x sales, SpaceX would be valued at more than 3x the sales multiple of Facebook and Amazon at IPO, and far above companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Google, and Tesla when they first went public.
So even if someone believes SpaceX is an exceptional business, the IPO valuation already assumes a very big future. That leaves much less room for error if growth slows, margins disappoint, or the AI/data centre story takes longer than expected to translate into profits.
And the company is actually still loss-making.
In 2025, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion. In Q1 2026 alone, it recorded a net loss of $4.3 billion on $4.7 billion of revenue.
So while the growth story is definitely strong, the current profitability profile still looks very stretched relative to the valuation being asked.
Another important point is that SpaceX is no longer just a “rocket and Mars” story.
In 2025, only around 22% of revenue came from the Space segment. In Q1 2026, that dropped to about 13% of total revenue.
Most of the business is now coming from Connectivity, mainly Starlink, and increasingly from AI-related operations such as xAI, Grok, data centres, and future orbital AI compute.
So if someone were to buy into this IPO, they are not just buying rockets and space exploration.
They are buying a combined story of Starlink, AI infrastructure, X/xAI, data centres, and a lot of future expectations.
To be fair, Starlink looks like the strongest part of the business.
The Connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and $4.4 billion in operating income. That is genuinely impressive.
But even there, there are signs to watch. Starlink’s monthly average revenue per user has been falling:
- 2023: $99/month
- 2025: $81/month
- Q1 2026: $66/month
This suggests that while subscriber growth is strong, pricing pressure may become a bigger factor over time.
The AI segment is also where a lot of the excitement seems to be concentrated, but it is extremely capital intensive.
In 2025, the AI segment generated $3.2 billion of revenue, but recorded an operating loss of $6.4 billion and required $12.7 billion of capex.
In Q1 2026 alone, AI capex was $7.7 billion, making up about 76% of total capex.
That means a large part of the IPO story is no longer just about proven space operations, but also about very ambitious and expensive AI infrastructure plans.
There is also a governance angle.
After the IPO, Elon Musk is expected to control about 82.4% of the voting power.
So public shareholders would be getting economic exposure to SpaceX, but very limited say in how the company is run...
Personally, at this IPO valuation, I’m not buying. SpaceX may still become one of the most important companies in the world, but at around 90x sales, the market is already pricing in a very big future. For me, there is too much hype, too much AI rebranding, and too much capital intensity, while profitability is still too limited to justify the valuation. I’ll admire the company, but I don’t think the IPO gives enough margin of safety as an investment.
🖤 Dm me if you want a comprehensive analysis on the stocks u're personally buying , and a report on how I do these analysis | 121 |
| 4 | [LONG ARTICLE] 🚀 Should Investors Buy the SpaceX IPO? ❓
A lot of yall have been asking me if they should invest in SpaceX's IPO , here's my research:
SpaceX is clearly one of the most impressive private companies in the world.
It has changed the economics of rocket launches, built Starlink into a serious global connectivity business, and is now positioning itself around AI, data centres, and even orbital compute infrastructure.
But when looking at it as an investment, the key question is not whether SpaceX is an amazing company.
The question is whether the IPO valuation makes sense.
Based on the filing, the IPO price of $135/share would value SpaceX at around $1.69 trillion based on the post-offering share count.
For context, SpaceX generated $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.
That works out to roughly 90x sales.
Not 90x earnings... 90x revenue.
To put the 90x sales valuation into perspective, many of the best-performing companies in history IPO’ed at much lower revenue multiples.
Roughly speaking:
- Apple IPO’ed around 10–15x sales
- Microsoft IPO’ed around 4x sales
- Nvidia IPO’ed around 4x sales
- Google IPO’ed around 9–16x sales
- Facebook / Meta IPO’ed around 28x sales
- Amazon IPO’ed around 28x sales
- Tesla IPO’ed around 15x sales
Of course, every company is different, and SpaceX is not directly comparable to any single one of them.
But the comparison is still useful because it shows how much future growth is already being priced in.
At around 90x sales, SpaceX would be valued at more than 3x the sales multiple of Facebook and Amazon at IPO, and far above companies like Microsoft, Nvidia, Apple, Google, and Tesla when they first went public.
So even if someone believes SpaceX is an exceptional business, the IPO valuation already assumes a very big future. That leaves much less room for error if growth slows, margins disappoint, or the AI/data centre story takes longer than expected to translate into profits.
And the company is actually still loss-making.
In 2025, SpaceX recorded a net loss of $4.9 billion. In Q1 2026 alone, it recorded a net loss of $4.3 billion on $4.7 billion of revenue.
So while the growth story is definitely strong, the current profitability profile still looks very stretched relative to the valuation being asked.
Another important point is that SpaceX is no longer just a “rocket and Mars” story.
In 2025, only around 22% of revenue came from the Space segment. In Q1 2026, that dropped to about 13% of total revenue.
Most of the business is now coming from Connectivity, mainly Starlink, and increasingly from AI-related operations such as xAI, Grok, data centres, and future orbital AI compute.
So if someone were to buy into this IPO, they are not just buying rockets and space exploration.
They are buying a combined story of Starlink, AI infrastructure, X/xAI, data centres, and a lot of future expectations.
To be fair, Starlink looks like the strongest part of the business.
The Connectivity segment generated $11.4 billion in revenue in 2025 and $4.4 billion in operating income. That is genuinely impressive.
But even there, there are signs to watch. Starlink’s monthly average revenue per user has been falling:
- 2023: $99/month
- 2025: $81/month
- Q1 2026: $66/month
This suggests that while subscriber growth is strong, pricing pressure may become a bigger factor over time.
The AI segment is also where a lot of the excitement seems to be concentrated, but it is extremely capital intensive.
In 2025, the AI segment generated $3.2 billion of revenue, but recorded an operating loss of $6.4 billion and required $12.7 billion of capex.
In Q1 2026 alone, AI capex was $7.7 billion, making up about 76% of total capex.
That means a large part of the IPO story is no longer just about proven space operations, but also about very ambitious and expensive AI infrastructure plans.
There is also a governance angle.
After the IPO, Elon Musk is expected to control about 82.4% of the voting power
So public shareholders would be getting economic exposure to SpaceX, but very limite | 1 |
| 5 |  😎 Upcoming IPOs after SpaceX , Anthropic & OpenAI 📈
SpaceX's IPO may set a precedent for the upcoming IPOs of Anthropic and OpenAI, according to a report by AXIOS. The valuations of Anthropic and OpenAI are rapidly increasing, mirroring the trends seen with SpaceX ahead of its initial public offering. | 116 |
| 6 |  🔥🇺🇸 Shares of SpaceX debuted on Nasdaq at $150, (yeah it's $163 now wth) following an initial public offering priced at $135.
Btw to know what's the true scale of a billionaire vs a TRILLIONARE ... watch this | 136 |
| 7 | Elon Musk becomes the 1st trillionaire as SpaceX begins trading today LOL 🔥🔥🚨🚨 | 129 |
| 8 | This is shaping up to be one of the biggest market weeks of the year.
Maybe even the past few years.
In the next couple of days, markets are watching 3 major events:
🚀 SpaceX IPO pricing
• Potentially the largest IPO in history, with a reported ~$1.75T valuation and $75B raise.
⚽️ World Cup begins
• Sounds unrelated to markets, but some experts say events of this scale across North America can distort jobs, spending and economic data.
🏦 Fed meeting
• Warsh chairs his first meeting this month - with markets now pricing in a higher chance of a rate hike.
Any one of these would usually be enough to move markets.
This time, investors are digesting all three at once.
Worth keeping an eye on the noise, but more importantly, staying focused on the long term.
Invest safe 🙏 | 145 |
| 9 | Sorry guys just ignore , configuring some bot settings to make the channel cooler 😎 | 119 |
| 10 | Test from Barbie — checking Objective Finance channel posting access. | 1 |
| 11 | @barbiejt_bot test | 1 |
| 12 |  🛢 Oil Is Quietly Moving Out of the Persian Gulf 🚢
Despite tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, oil is still finding its way out.
Government-owned tankers from the UAE, Kuwait, and other Gulf producers are reportedly switching off tracking systems, sailing without radio communication, and moving quietly through the region.
Around 2 million barrels per day are now flowing out of the Gulf — still far below normal levels, but much higher than earlier in the conflict.
Some ships are gathering off the coast of Oman, transferring cargo to international tankers before broadcasting their positions again.
For markets, this matters because these workarounds are helping prevent a full oil price spike.
The takeaway: oil supply is still tight and fragile, but not completely frozen. That is why prices have not spiraled further ... yet(?) | 124 |
| 13 |  🚨 Governments Are Borrowing at Record Pace 🌍
Governments have sold around $504 billion in bonds so far this year, as defense spending, energy subsidies, and household support programs push deficits higher.
Italy has already raised nearly €70 billion in the first half of 2026, while Germany, the UK, Belgium, and others are also issuing debt at record levels.
The issue is structural: aging populations, higher interest costs, and the need to rebuild defense capacity are forcing governments to borrow more — and refinance old cheap debt at today’s much higher rates.
Investors are still buying, but they are demanding higher yields.
A U.S. 30-year Treasury auction recently cleared above 5%, the first time since 2007. UK 10-year gilt yields also reached levels not seen since 2008.
The takeaway: governments can still borrow, but the cost of doing so is rising, and that matters for bonds, currencies, and long-term market valuations. | 114 |
| 14 |  🚨 US Inflation Hits Three-Year High as Energy Prices Surge 📈
U.S. inflation jumped 4.2% year-over-year in May, the fastest pace since early 2023, with a 7% surge in gasoline prices accounting for more than half of the monthly increase.
The key pressure is coming from energy — not yet the whole economy. Core CPI rose just 0.2% for the month, below the 0.3% consensus forecast, suggesting inflation has not fully spread into broader categories yet.
But households are already feeling the squeeze. Real wages fell 0.7% year-over-year, the sharpest drop in more than three years, as inflation outpaced pay growth.
Markets are now pricing in a Fed rate hike by December, though the softer core reading reduced bets for an earlier September move.
The big question from here: does this stay as an energy-driven inflation spike — or start leaking into food, transport, and everyday prices? | 117 |
| 15 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation rises to 4.2%. | 133 |
| 16 |  ☺️ Forecast Ahead:
- CPI (Inflation - gauging the cost of living and tracks inflation)
- Core CPI (excludes food and energy costs)
- Initial Jobless Claims (Measures the number of individuals who file for first-time state unemployment benefits) | 152 |
| 17 |  ✈️ AI’s Mega Stock Deals Raise Speculation of More Shares Than Buyers 📈
SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are expected to add nearly $4 trillion in market capitalization to U.S. exchanges in the coming months.
SpaceX’s IPO, priced at $135 per share and expected to begin trading Friday, is already oversubscribed despite the company posting a $6.4 billion operating loss last year and pricing at over 90 times sales.
Alphabet is planning to raise an additional $85 billion in a secondary offering to fund AI data centers, and Meta may follow suit.
On top of that, Goldman Sachs estimates that as lockup periods expire and insiders begin selling, roughly $1 trillion of additional equity supply could hit the market by 2027, more than enough to rattle valuations if demand doesn’t keep pace.
Rule changes by Nasdaq and FTSE Russell will fast-track these companies into major indexes, forcing passive funds to buy their shares and trim existing holdings to make room.
For years, owning “AI proxy” stocks like Nvidia, Broadcom, and Marvell has been the only way retail investors could participate in the AI boom. Once OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX have publicly traded shares, many investors are likely to rotate out of those proxies and into the primary assets, creating selling pressure on some of the biggest winners of the past three years. | 146 |
| 18 |  🔥 May Jobs Report Blows Past Expectations and Seals the Case for Fed Hikes 📈
The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, topping every economist’s forecast, and prior months were revised higher, making it the strongest three-month stretch of job growth in over two years.
Hiring was broad-based, with leisure and hospitality adding 70,000 jobs, the most in three years.
The FIFA World Cup effect may have provided a partial boost, but the breadth of the report signals something more durable: a labor market that appears to be breaking out of the “low-hire, low-fire” stagnation that defined much of 2025.
Markets responded immediately as traders fully priced in a quarter-point rate hike by year-end.
Wage growth slowed to 3.4% year-over-year, the weakest pace since 2021, meaning real wages are still declining as inflation outpaces paychecks. Information sector employment fell for the 16th time in 17 months as Big Tech continues trimming headcount to fund AI investment.
New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will preside over his first policy meeting on June 16-17, where rates are expected to hold. With three straight months of strong job growth and inflation still running hot, the pressure to hike later this year is building fast. | 125 |
| 19 | 📈 May market round up 📉
Records all round: why May was the strongest month of the year for our US-based investments
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/31/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
The Dow breaks 51,000 for the first time: what a record number really tells us
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/may-2026-review-and-outlook
AI keeps paying off: Dell's best day ever and the server boom driving the tech rally
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/dell-stock-earnings-ai-servers.html
Oil tumbles 19%: how a US-Iran ceasefire could ease the cost of everyday living
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/29/oil-price-iran-deal-war-ceasefire-trump.html
The Fed holds steady: why sticky inflation is keeping interest rates where they are
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcminutes20260429.htm
Inflation hits 3.8%: why petrol, food and wages still matter for everyday investors
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/12/cpi-inflation-april-2026-.html
Gold, silver and Bitcoin wobble: higher rates remind investors that safety still has a price
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/15/global-markets-stocks-bonds-silver-gold-trump-inflation.html
Asia's chip boom widens: why Taiwan and Korea matter to the AI investment story
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/asias-ai-chip-boom-could-spark-regional-economic-renaissance-2026-05-31/ | 144 |
| 20 | 🤔 AI Bubble 🫧 or Breakthrough 📈?
If you've been following the headlines, you've probably noticed something that feels off: markets are hitting record highs (the S&P 500 just notched its 24th record of the year) - at the same time as an ongoing war in the Middle East. A lot of my clients & retail investors are asking the same thing: is this AI boom the real deal, or a bubble waiting to pop?
Here's my honest take 👇
It's the real deal. However, it's narrow.
This rally is being driven almost entirely by AI infrastructure - chipmakers like Nvidia, Micron and Broadcom, instead of the broad economy. Semiconductors alone account for more than half of the market's gains this year, and more than $40 of every $100 invested now flows into just 10 companies 🤯.
So when you hear "the market is up," it's really a handful of names doing the heavy lifting. The demand behind them is genuine (hence the breakthrough) - but leaning on so few names is exactly where the risk sits (the bubble).
The S&P is also historically expensive.
On a long-term valuation measure, the S&P 500 is the 2nd most expensive it has been in 69 years‼️(only the dot-com peak in 2000 was higher).
• What that does NOT mean: a crash tomorrow. Expensive markets can stay expensive for a long time.
• What it DOES mean: more modest expected returns from here, and a thinner margin for error if something surprises us - like the Iran conflict, which is keeping oil elevated and inflation sticky.
So what should you actually do?
Not panic, and try not to time the top either. The smarter move is making sure your portfolio is positioned for more than just the best-case scenario, because right now the market is largely priced for the best case.
Here's the thing most people get backwards: the best time to review a portfolio is when you're ahead - not after the curveball hits. Anyone can sell in a panic. Repositioning from a position of strength, while you're still up, is what actually protects the gains you've worked for.
So if you've been riding this rally, let's spend 20 minutes making sure you get to keep more of it. I'll show you exactly where the concentration risk sits in your own holdings and what a more resilient setup could look like - no pressure to change anything, just clarity.
Reply with "review" and I'll send you a message. 📈
This is a general market view and not personalised advice! I’ll tailor everything to your situation when we chat 🫶 | 153 |
