₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈
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منشورات القناة
+1
📈 Upcoming FOMC Rate Decision 💧
Markets are now pricing in an 87.3% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on 16 September 2026.
Current expectations:
- 87.3% chance of a hike to 3.75%–4.00%
- 12.7% chance of no change at 3.50%–3.75%
- 0% chance of a rate cut
If the Fed raises rates, borrowing costs could stay elevated while bonds, equities and currencies react to the decision and the Fed’s guidance.
| 2 |  💼 US jobs report puts a September rate hike back on the table 🔥
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, beating every estimate in Bloomberg’s survey.
July’s reported job losses were also revised away entirely.
Key points:
- Unemployment held at 4.1%
- Labor force participation rose for the first time in nearly a year
- Leisure and hospitality rebounded from summer weakness
- Manufacturing posted its best month since 2023
- Construction added its most jobs since January, partly driven by the data-center buildout
- Local government education recovered from seasonal volatility
The softer spots:
- Financial services and information shed a combined 34,000 jobs
- Wage growth slowed to 3.1% year over year, the weakest since 2021
Markets reacted with Treasury yields rising and stocks falling as investors raised the odds of a September rate hike.
Bloomberg Economics called the September 15-16 FOMC meeting a “very close call,” with the August CPI report on September 11 (which came out sticky at 3.4%) now the decisive factor. | 69 |
| 3 |  📈 The “Treasury twist” did not keep long-term yields down 🥶
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to buy back long-dated government debt while issuing more short-term securities, aiming to bring long-term borrowing costs back toward “equilibrium.”
Long-term yields fell sharply on the announcement, but quickly reversed. The 10-year Treasury closed near its highest level since Bessent took office.
The pressures pushing yields higher remain:
• U.S. national debt has passed $40 trillion
• Annual interest costs exceed $1 trillion
• The federal deficit is around 6% of GDP
• AI-related corporate bond issuance is competing for capital
• Inflation remains above target
Fed Chair Warsh has taken a different tone, saying markets have already done significant tightening and should continue adjusting as they see fit. | 77 |
| 4 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation remains at 3.4%. | 98 |
| 5 | 📈 August market round up 📉
US stocks hit fresh records: AI-linked earnings push the Dow above 54,000
https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-underpinned-by-strong-ai-forecasts-focus-earnings-data-2026-08-04/
Inflation cools to 3.4%: a welcome sign, but prices are still above the Fed's target
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html
Nvidia revenue doubles: the AI investment story is still powering global markets
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027
Oil swings by $40 a barrel: Middle East disruption keeps fuel costs on edge
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
Bitcoin climbs above $80,000: a softer US dollar puts crypto back in focus
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitcoin-rises-above-80000-soft-dollar-debasement-fears-boost-momentum-2026-08-25/
Gold drops 3%: rate hike expectations show why non-income assets can fall fast
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/
Singapore raises its 2026 growth forecast: AI demand continues to support the local economy
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-gdp-grows-59-yy-q2-government-raises-2026-forecast-ai-boom-2026-08-11/
Japan spends a record US$96.5bn to defend the yen: big currency moves are back
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-spent-record-965-billion-support-yen-over-past-month-ministry-data-shows-2026-08-28/ | 153 |
| 6 |  لا يوجد نص... | 188 |
| 7 | On the other hand, there was another key news that came out recently.
The US Treasury (Scott Bessent) is now stepping in to hold down long term interest rates. He recently announced that they will double how much government debt it's buying back.
In layman terms, the US government has quietly started putting a floor under the market.
It matters because this shifts control of financial conditions from the Fed to the Treasury. Pair it with Warsh eventually letting short term rates drift down, and you get a "steeper curve”, the classic setup that pumps money into the system and feeds risk assets.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Bessent and Warsh are on the same side. Perhaps a perfect storm!
Hope these two short pieces help you make sense of a noisy week, Have a great Sunday! | 174 |
| 8 | Here's the whole speech simplified in 3 points:
1) Not cutting rates yet
Inflation on the Fed's preferred gauge is still 3.7%, well above their 2% goal. He said the softer summer numbers don't convince him the trend has really improved.
2) He's anchoring on the stickier number
The US has two main inflation measures. Warsh is leaning fully on the tougher one and gave almost no credit to the softer one.
In another words, he's choosing the number that lets him stay patient.
3) He wants the Fed to matter less day to day
He openly went after the old habit of the Fed spoon feeding markets its next move (i.e interest rate dot plots).
Moving forward, investors can expect fewer promises, a quieter Fed and decisions taken meeting by meeting.
What it means for investors:
A quieter Fed that surprises more = sharper bursts of volatility around big data days.
Higher for longer on rates is still the base case.
A small hike before year end isn't off the table but he made no promises either way.
TLDR I read it as him buying time. He clearly gets the AI productivity story (like a CEO who already knows the answer but waits for the consultant's report to make it official), but is waiting for the right time to shift monetary policies. | 163 |
| 9 | Hello everyone!
Over the weekend the new US Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh gave his first big speech at Jackson Hole (the yearly gathering where central bankers set the tone for markets)
Context: Warsh took over from Jerome Powell in May. He's Trump's pick, and everyone's been waiting to see what kind of chairman he'll be. | 142 |
| 10 | ⚠️🇺🇸 The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surpassed 5.31%, reaching its highest level in 19 years.
Quite a concerning topic, will discuss more about this 💪🏻 | 216 |
| 11 |  ✈️ Nvidia is bringing Wall Street deeper into AI infrastructure financing 💰
Nvidia announced that a coalition of major financial institutions, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Apollo, Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR, will independently deploy more than $500 billion to help fund AI infrastructure.
The issue investors were watching: “circular financing”. If Nvidia lends money to customers like OpenAI so they can buy Nvidia chips, and those customers fail, Nvidia could be left with the losses while already having booked the revenue.
In less than three weeks, the cost of protecting Nvidia’s debt against default had nearly doubled via credit default swaps (CDS)
Tuesday’s announcement helped calm credit markets because Nvidia’s own exposure will be limited to guaranteeing up to 25% of some projects through a “residual value mechanism”, with the rest of the risk absorbed by outside investors.
The concern has not disappeared. It has been redistributed. If projects fail, losses could flow to bondholders, life insurers, and pension holders instead of Nvidia shareholders.... | 281 |
| 12 |  💵 What Earnings Calls are saying about the Economy 😎
Bloomberg Economics’ transcript-based indexes show two things rising in S&P 500 earnings calls:
- Growth optimism
- Inflation concern
The growth optimism index tracks how broadly industries are expressing expansion signals in earnings calls, such as guidance raises, record orders, or margin improvements.
The inflation concern index tracks the breadth of inflation-related discussion, including wage pressure, pricing power, consumer demand, and supply costs.
Both measures have moved higher into Q1 2026, suggesting companies are sounding more optimistic on growth while still talking more about inflation pressure. | 186 |
| 13 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation falls to 3.4%. | 149 |
| 14 |  💼 U.S. job openings eased, but the labor market is still stable 📈
June job openings dipped to 7.36M, down from 7.54M in May.
The pullback came mainly from:
- Healthcare
- Leisure and hospitality
- Business services
But the broader picture still looks balanced rather than deteriorating.
Hiring picked up slightly, driven by healthcare and construction. Layoffs remained limited, and the quits rate held steady at 2%.
Bloomberg Economics noted that softer labor demand should keep easing wage-driven price pressures.
The next key read is Friday’s July jobs report, where economists expect about 80,000 payrolls added. | 211 |
| 15 |  ✈️The AI boom is becoming more debt-financed 😎
The largest AI spenders are leaning harder on bond markets.
- Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX are projected to issue $285B in bonds this year.
- That is up from $109B last year.
- The money is being used to fund a nearly $4T four-year capex program.
- Soaring chip prices are also feeding into consumer goods inflation.
- The article notes the iPhone 18 Pro will cost more because of memory chip shortages.
The U.S. economy has rarely been this dependent on one technology cycle continuing to deliver. | 133 |
| 16 |  🇺🇸 The U.S. economy is now running on AI ⌨️
AI has become one of the main engines of recent U.S. growth.
- Oxford Economics estimates AI investment alone accounts for nearly 25% of recent GDP growth.
- Business spending on AI-related categories is running at roughly $1.5T annualized, up from $1T two years ago.
- Data center construction spending hit $68.3B annualized in June, up $21.5B YoY.
- At the same time, all other private construction fell by $101.6B.
- The AI stock rally has added trillions to household net worth, with U.S. household net worth reaching $174T in Q1.
Put together, AI-related factors may be responsible for roughly one-third of recent U.S. economic growth. | 133 |
| 17 |  🚨 PSA: Timbre+ Credits Refund 🚨
Quick reminder for anyone who still has credits inside the Timbre+ app.
Timbre+ Hawkers will stop operating One Punggol Hawker Centre, with NEA calling for a new operator and Timbre+ ending its tenancy on 14 Aug 2026.
If you still have unused Timbre+ credits, don’t leave them sitting there. You can check the app and request for a refund directly from there.
For refunds less than $50, technically need to head down to the location to get cash refund .. but the hack is to top up to
> $50 and request refund via Paynow LOL (see screenshot)
Small money still money 🤤, especially when app credits are easy to forget.
What to do:
- Open your Timbre+ app
- Check if you still have stored credits
- Use them up or request a refund
- Remind your family members too, especially if they frequent One Punggol or Yishun Park Hawker Centre
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/one-punggol-hawker-centre-to-get-new-operator-open-tender-to-be-called-in-jan-2026 | 150 |
| 18 |  Markets are also pricing in a probable 25bps rate 🚨HIKE🚨 (63% target rate probability) for the next FOMC meeting in September...
Lots of volatility ahead , will keep u guys updated okie 🫡 | 168 |
| 19 |  🧑💻 Even with all that , Big Tech’s AI capex is still rising tho 🥺
Btw, capex stands for capital expenditures, which means the big money tech companies spend to buy physical things and long-term tools like data centers, computer chips, and power plants to build and run artificial intelligence
The chart of the week shows combined capital expenditure and free cash flow for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle.
Capex has been rising sharply since 2023 and is expected to keep climbing through 2029.
The chart estimates combined capex moving toward around US$1.1 trillion+ by 2029. Free cash flow is expected to recover later, but the near-term picture shows how expensive the AI infrastructure race has become.
This is the KEY market question around AI:
Can Big Tech turn huge AI spending into enough future revenue and free cash flow?
If yes, the spending supports long-term growth. If not, investors may start questioning whether AI capex is becoming too heavy relative to returns. | 156 |
| 20 |  🇺🇸 And the results: Rates left unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% 🚫
Stock Market Highlights 🇺🇸
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,152.46 points to close at 51,594.86.
The S&P 500 lost 1.5% to finish at 7,316.37, heavily pressured by industrial and tech sector pullbacks.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2% to 27,192.31 amid ongoing concerns over heavy capital spending on AI infrastructure.
📈 Bond Market and Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield surged 12 basis points to 5.21%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points.
This reaction reveals that investors are resetting their expectations for the economy, inflation, and interest rates. | 110 |
