₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈
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The content shared in this Telegram channel is for informational and educational purposes only. The information, insights, and opinions expressed here are based on my own personal learnings and experiences. They do not constitute financial advice!
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Publicaciones del Canal
📈 THE AI BUILD-OUT IS ADDING LEVERAGE AND INFLATION PRESSURE ✈️
Five hyperscalers are projected to spend $4.2 trillion through 2029. A growing share of that capital expenditure is debt-financed, sometimes through off-balance-sheet entities with limited public disclosure.
That makes the financial system’s total exposure difficult to measure if AI-related revenue falls short of expectations.
The build-out is also feeding into inflation. Import prices for computers, peripherals, and semiconductors are up about 20% year over year, contributing to higher prices for products such as iPhones and gaming consoles. :<
AI demand is also lifting wages in related fields and contributing to pressure on long-term interest rates.
| 2 |  🇺🇸 US LONG-TERM YIELDS BREAK HIGHER 📈
The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.53%, its highest level since 2004, while the 10-year crossed 5.22%.
The market has absorbed the Fed’s first rate hike in three years and is pricing in the possibility of more. Citigroup says there is “no clear near-term upper bound on hikes” while energy prices continue to support inflation.
Friday’s long-end selloff came even as oil fell 2.3% and short-term yields declined. That suggests term premium and fiscal concerns are increasingly driving the move, alongside expectations of structurally higher rates and greater Treasury supply. | 92 |
| 3 |  🥮 Happy Mid-Autumn Festival 2026! 中秋节快乐！🌙
May this season of reunion bring you and your loved ones happiness, good health, and meaningful moments together!
Wishing you a beautiful evening filled with warmth, laughter, and togetherness under the full moon. 🌕🏮 | 139 |
| 4 | ⚡️ Nike just got removed from the S&P100. Should investors be worried? 😟
https://www.foxbusiness.com/video/6405393056112
Nike has officially been removed from the S&P 100 after roughly 18 years.
For context, the S&P 100 contains some of the largest and most established companies in the US. Nike is still inside the S&P 500, so this doesn't mean Nike is disappearing from the market or suddenly becoming a “bad company.”
❓ What actually happened?
Over the last few years, Nike's share price and market value have fallen significantly.
Its stock is down roughly 80% from its 2021 peak, as the company has struggled with slower sales growth, stronger competition, problems with its direct-to-consumer strategy and difficulties getting product momentum back.
At the same time, companies connected to technology and AI infrastructure have grown tremendously.
So during the latest reshuffle, Nike, Colgate-Palmolive, Simon Property Group and Honeywell Aerospace were removed, while Dell, Palo Alto Networks, Arista Networks and SanDisk entered.
Interesting part?
All four new companies are technology companies.
This tells us something about how much market leadership has shifted toward technology.
Haven't we seen this before?
Yes.
A recent example is Lululemon.
Lululemon was removed from the Nasdaq-100 in December 2025 after a difficult year for its stock.
When the change became effective on 22 December 2025, Lululemon closed at about US$212.
As of 21 September 2026, it was around US$101.
That's another fall of roughly 52%.
But here's the important lesson:
It didn't fall 52% because it was removed from the index.
The index removal was more like a symptom of what had already been happening to the business.
Since then, Lululemon has continued dealing with weaker demand, lower margins and cuts to its earnings outlook.
Think of it this way:
A company usually doesn't struggle because it gets kicked out of an index.
It often gets kicked out of the index because it has already been struggling.
So what should investors do?
The first lesson is don't panic just because a company gets removed from an index.
Being removed from the S&P 100 does not automatically mean Nike will continue falling, just as being added to an index doesn't guarantee that a stock will keep going up.
Instead, go back to the business.
Ask:
Are sales growing? Are profits improving? Is the company gaining or losing customers? Is management successfully turning things around? And most importantly, am I paying a reasonable price for the business?
The second lesson is about diversification.
Twenty years ago, today's biggest winners weren't necessarily the biggest companies.
Market leadership changes.
That's one advantage of owning a diversified index: as companies rise and fall, the index gradually changes with them instead of requiring us to correctly predict every future winner.
And that's probably the biggest takeaway from Nike's story:
Don't fall in love with yesterday's winners.
Own a portfolio that can participate in tomorrow's winners too. | 141 |
| 5 |  💳 Trust Freedom Card: 100,000 miles and no foreign currency fees 🚀
Trust has launched a new Miles mode for its Freedom Card, making it the first Singapore credit card to offer miles on overseas spending with zero foreign currency transaction fees.
Here’s what stands out:
- No annual fee
- Earn 1.3 miles per S$1 on both local and overseas spending
- No foreign currency transaction fee
- No minimum spending requirement or miles cap
- Trust Miles can be converted 1:1 to KrisFlyer or Max Miles
- Transfers are instant and can start from just 1 mile
- Each conversion costs S$27.25
✈️ Welcome offer: Up to 100,000 Max Miles
New-to-Trust-card customers approved from 21 September to 31 October 2026 can earn:
- Spend S$1,000: 20,000 Max Miles
- Spend S$5,000: 50,000 Max Miles in total
- Spend S$15,000: 100,000 Max Miles in total
The spending must be completed within 31 days of approval or by 30 November 2026, whichever comes first.
Important conditions:
- You must have never held a principal Trust credit card
- You must select Miles mode during onboarding
- Selecting cashback or Stockback first could make you ineligible for the miles offer
- Do not spend more than you normally would just to unlock the bonus
🌍 Why it is interesting for overseas spending
Most Singapore credit cards charge around 3% to 3.5% on foreign currency transactions.
The Trust Freedom Card earns 1.3 miles per dollar without that fee, making it useful when:
- Your higher-earning card’s bonus cap has been reached
- The overseas purchase does not qualify for bonus miles elsewhere
- You prefer avoiding foreign currency fees over chasing a higher headline earn rate
⚠️ What to watch out for
The card calculates miles in S$5 spending blocks.
This means:
- A S$4.99 transaction earns no miles
- A S$9.99 transaction earns the same miles as S$5
- The 1.3 miles-per-dollar rate works better for larger transactions
Other key exclusions include:
- Insurance premiums
- Education
- Government payments
- Utilities
- Charitable donations
- GrabPay, YouTrip and other prepaid top-ups
- CardUp transactions
The 1.3 miles-per-dollar local earn rate is also not particularly strong, since other cards may offer better rewards for local spending.
📊 Other rewards modes
The card also allows users to choose a different rewards mode each membership quarter:
- Unlimited Cashback: 1.5% locally and 0.5% overseas
- Bonus Cashback: Advertised at up to 15%, but the article calculates the best effective return at around 5.2% after accounting for minimum spending and caps
- Stockback: 3% until 31 December 2026, falling to 2% from 1 January 2027, subject to a S$500 quarterly cap
My takeaway:
The Trust Freedom Card is most compelling for two groups:
1. New customers who can meet the welcome-offer spending naturally
2. Travellers who want to earn miles overseas without paying foreign currency fees
It is less compelling as an everyday local-spending card.
The best reward is not the biggest headline bonus. It is the reward you can earn without overspending, paying unnecessary fees, or changing your normal financial habits.
Read the full MileLion review | 113 |
| 6 |  ✈️ Five-Year Treasury Yields Surpass 5% 🚨
The yield on five-year US Treasuries has moved above 5% as traders increase bets on further Fed rate hikes.
The rise marks a sharp increase in borrowing costs after five-year yields spent much of the period from 2009 to 2021 below 3%. | 95 |
| 7 |  👀 Analysts Turn Negative on US Corporate Profits 📉
Wall Street analysts became net negative on US earnings estimates for the first time in nearly six months, ending the longest upgrade streak since 2021.
Downgrades were concentrated in:
• Consumer staples
• Consumer discretionary
• Materials
• Financials
These sectors are among the most exposed to higher energy costs and rising interest rates. The reversal comes as the OECD expects global inflation to run above forecasts through 2027, while Morgan Stanley has flagged the potential for a 7% S&P 500 correction if valuations and energy prices come under further pressure. | 102 |
| 8 |  🇺🇸 US Business Activity Hits Its Fastest Pace Since 2021 📈
The S&P Global composite PMI rose to 58.4 in September, its highest level since July 2021. Outside the post-pandemic reopening, it was the strongest reading since early 2015.
Manufacturing and services posted their best readings in years, while employment grew at its fastest pace in over four years.
But input prices also increased at their fastest pace since 2022 as fuel, transport and wage costs climbed. The data points to stronger growth alongside renewed inflation pressure, making it harder for the Fed to pause rate hikes. | 105 |
| 9 |  💰 Markets are pricing a higher Fed policy path 🇺🇸
Overnight swaps are pricing almost a full 25 basis-point hike for September and two hikes for the year.
The swaps curve rises through 2027 and reaches roughly 4.5%, while the Fed’s dot-plot path remains much lower at around 3.5% to 3.7% through 2028.
The gap shows how far market rate expectations have moved above the Fed’s own published projections. | 138 |
| 10 |  🚀 The 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 5% 🔥
The 10-year yield moved above 5% for the first time in nearly three years, adding pressure to equities as the Fed recently raised rates.
Unlike October 2023, the last time yields were this high, the S&P 500 is now within 2.5% of its all-time high.
A “one and done” signal could be welcomed by markets. Any hint of multiple hikes or a prolonged inflation fight has triggered a sharper selloff.
The equity risk premium is also near its lowest level since 2002, leaving high-multiple technology stocks especially exposed if yields continue rising. | 143 |
| 11 | JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve expects one more 25bps rate hike this year 👀👀🥵🤡 | 132 |
| 12 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25bps.
This is the first rate increase in 3 years 🤯 | 133 |
| 13 |  +1📈 Upcoming FOMC Rate Decision 💧
Markets are now pricing in an 87.3% probability of a rate hike at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on 16 September 2026.
Current expectations:
- 87.3% chance of a hike to 3.75%–4.00%
- 12.7% chance of no change at 3.50%–3.75%
- 0% chance of a rate cut
If the Fed raises rates, borrowing costs could stay elevated while bonds, equities and currencies react to the decision and the Fed’s guidance. | 191 |
| 14 |  💼 US jobs report puts a September rate hike back on the table 🔥
The U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in August, beating every estimate in Bloomberg’s survey.
July’s reported job losses were also revised away entirely.
Key points:
- Unemployment held at 4.1%
- Labor force participation rose for the first time in nearly a year
- Leisure and hospitality rebounded from summer weakness
- Manufacturing posted its best month since 2023
- Construction added its most jobs since January, partly driven by the data-center buildout
- Local government education recovered from seasonal volatility
The softer spots:
- Financial services and information shed a combined 34,000 jobs
- Wage growth slowed to 3.1% year over year, the weakest since 2021
Markets reacted with Treasury yields rising and stocks falling as investors raised the odds of a September rate hike.
Bloomberg Economics called the September 15-16 FOMC meeting a “very close call,” with the August CPI report on September 11 (which came out sticky at 3.4%) now the decisive factor. | 134 |
| 15 |  📈 The “Treasury twist” did not keep long-term yields down 🥶
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a plan to buy back long-dated government debt while issuing more short-term securities, aiming to bring long-term borrowing costs back toward “equilibrium.”
Long-term yields fell sharply on the announcement, but quickly reversed. The 10-year Treasury closed near its highest level since Bessent took office.
The pressures pushing yields higher remain:
• U.S. national debt has passed $40 trillion
• Annual interest costs exceed $1 trillion
• The federal deficit is around 6% of GDP
• AI-related corporate bond issuance is competing for capital
• Inflation remains above target
Fed Chair Warsh has taken a different tone, saying markets have already done significant tightening and should continue adjusting as they see fit. | 127 |
| 16 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation remains at 3.4%. | 136 |
| 17 | 📈 August market round up 📉
US stocks hit fresh records: AI-linked earnings push the Dow above 54,000
https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-underpinned-by-strong-ai-forecasts-focus-earnings-data-2026-08-04/
Inflation cools to 3.4%: a welcome sign, but prices are still above the Fed's target
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/12/cpi-inflation-report-july-2026.html
Nvidia revenue doubles: the AI investment story is still powering global markets
https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027
Oil swings by $40 a barrel: Middle East disruption keeps fuel costs on edge
https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-august-2026
Bitcoin climbs above $80,000: a softer US dollar puts crypto back in focus
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitcoin-rises-above-80000-soft-dollar-debasement-fears-boost-momentum-2026-08-25/
Gold drops 3%: rate hike expectations show why non-income assets can fall fast
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-slips-fed-chief-warshs-jackson-hole-speech-looms-2026-08-28/
Singapore raises its 2026 growth forecast: AI demand continues to support the local economy
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-gdp-grows-59-yy-q2-government-raises-2026-forecast-ai-boom-2026-08-11/
Japan spends a record US$96.5bn to defend the yen: big currency moves are back
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japan-spent-record-965-billion-support-yen-over-past-month-ministry-data-shows-2026-08-28/ | 198 |
| 18 |  Sin texto... | 219 |
| 19 | On the other hand, there was another key news that came out recently.
The US Treasury (Scott Bessent) is now stepping in to hold down long term interest rates. He recently announced that they will double how much government debt it's buying back.
In layman terms, the US government has quietly started putting a floor under the market.
It matters because this shifts control of financial conditions from the Fed to the Treasury. Pair it with Warsh eventually letting short term rates drift down, and you get a "steeper curve”, the classic setup that pumps money into the system and feeds risk assets.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Bessent and Warsh are on the same side. Perhaps a perfect storm!
Hope these two short pieces help you make sense of a noisy week, Have a great Sunday! | 199 |
| 20 | Here's the whole speech simplified in 3 points:
1) Not cutting rates yet
Inflation on the Fed's preferred gauge is still 3.7%, well above their 2% goal. He said the softer summer numbers don't convince him the trend has really improved.
2) He's anchoring on the stickier number
The US has two main inflation measures. Warsh is leaning fully on the tougher one and gave almost no credit to the softer one.
In another words, he's choosing the number that lets him stay patient.
3) He wants the Fed to matter less day to day
He openly went after the old habit of the Fed spoon feeding markets its next move (i.e interest rate dot plots).
Moving forward, investors can expect fewer promises, a quieter Fed and decisions taken meeting by meeting.
What it means for investors:
A quieter Fed that surprises more = sharper bursts of volatility around big data days.
Higher for longer on rates is still the base case.
A small hike before year end isn't off the table but he made no promises either way.
TLDR I read it as him buying time. He clearly gets the AI productivity story (like a CEO who already knows the answer but waits for the consultant's report to make it official), but is waiting for the right time to shift monetary policies. | 183 |
