₿ Justin Tew - Objective Finance 📈
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The content shared in this Telegram channel is for informational and educational purposes only. The information, insights, and opinions expressed here are based on my own personal learnings and experiences. They do not constitute financial advice!
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Channel Posts
| 2 | On the other hand, there was another key news that came out recently.
The US Treasury (Scott Bessent) is now stepping in to hold down long term interest rates. He recently announced that they will double how much government debt it's buying back.
In layman terms, the US government has quietly started putting a floor under the market.
It matters because this shifts control of financial conditions from the Fed to the Treasury. Pair it with Warsh eventually letting short term rates drift down, and you get a "steeper curve”, the classic setup that pumps money into the system and feeds risk assets.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Bessent and Warsh are on the same side. Perhaps a perfect storm!
Hope these two short pieces help you make sense of a noisy week, Have a great Sunday! | 119 |
| 3 | Here's the whole speech simplified in 3 points:
1) Not cutting rates yet
Inflation on the Fed's preferred gauge is still 3.7%, well above their 2% goal. He said the softer summer numbers don't convince him the trend has really improved.
2) He's anchoring on the stickier number
The US has two main inflation measures. Warsh is leaning fully on the tougher one and gave almost no credit to the softer one.
In another words, he's choosing the number that lets him stay patient.
3) He wants the Fed to matter less day to day
He openly went after the old habit of the Fed spoon feeding markets its next move (i.e interest rate dot plots).
Moving forward, investors can expect fewer promises, a quieter Fed and decisions taken meeting by meeting.
What it means for investors:
A quieter Fed that surprises more = sharper bursts of volatility around big data days.
Higher for longer on rates is still the base case.
A small hike before year end isn't off the table but he made no promises either way.
TLDR I read it as him buying time. He clearly gets the AI productivity story (like a CEO who already knows the answer but waits for the consultant's report to make it official), but is waiting for the right time to shift monetary policies. | 114 |
| 4 | Hello everyone!
Over the weekend the new US Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh gave his first big speech at Jackson Hole (the yearly gathering where central bankers set the tone for markets)
Context: Warsh took over from Jerome Powell in May. He's Trump's pick, and everyone's been waiting to see what kind of chairman he'll be. | 109 |
| 5 | ⚠️🇺🇸 The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has surpassed 5.31%, reaching its highest level in 19 years.
Quite a concerning topic, will discuss more about this 💪🏻 | 195 |
| 6 |  ✈️ Nvidia is bringing Wall Street deeper into AI infrastructure financing 💰
Nvidia announced that a coalition of major financial institutions, including BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Apollo, Blackstone, Brookfield, and KKR, will independently deploy more than $500 billion to help fund AI infrastructure.
The issue investors were watching: “circular financing”. If Nvidia lends money to customers like OpenAI so they can buy Nvidia chips, and those customers fail, Nvidia could be left with the losses while already having booked the revenue.
In less than three weeks, the cost of protecting Nvidia’s debt against default had nearly doubled via credit default swaps (CDS)
Tuesday’s announcement helped calm credit markets because Nvidia’s own exposure will be limited to guaranteeing up to 25% of some projects through a “residual value mechanism”, with the rest of the risk absorbed by outside investors.
The concern has not disappeared. It has been redistributed. If projects fail, losses could flow to bondholders, life insurers, and pension holders instead of Nvidia shareholders.... | 269 |
| 7 |  💵 What Earnings Calls are saying about the Economy 😎
Bloomberg Economics’ transcript-based indexes show two things rising in S&P 500 earnings calls:
- Growth optimism
- Inflation concern
The growth optimism index tracks how broadly industries are expressing expansion signals in earnings calls, such as guidance raises, record orders, or margin improvements.
The inflation concern index tracks the breadth of inflation-related discussion, including wage pressure, pricing power, consumer demand, and supply costs.
Both measures have moved higher into Q1 2026, suggesting companies are sounding more optimistic on growth while still talking more about inflation pressure. | 180 |
| 8 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸 US inflation falls to 3.4%. | 146 |
| 9 |  💼 U.S. job openings eased, but the labor market is still stable 📈
June job openings dipped to 7.36M, down from 7.54M in May.
The pullback came mainly from:
- Healthcare
- Leisure and hospitality
- Business services
But the broader picture still looks balanced rather than deteriorating.
Hiring picked up slightly, driven by healthcare and construction. Layoffs remained limited, and the quits rate held steady at 2%.
Bloomberg Economics noted that softer labor demand should keep easing wage-driven price pressures.
The next key read is Friday’s July jobs report, where economists expect about 80,000 payrolls added. | 211 |
| 10 |  ✈️The AI boom is becoming more debt-financed 😎
The largest AI spenders are leaning harder on bond markets.
- Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle and SpaceX are projected to issue $285B in bonds this year.
- That is up from $109B last year.
- The money is being used to fund a nearly $4T four-year capex program.
- Soaring chip prices are also feeding into consumer goods inflation.
- The article notes the iPhone 18 Pro will cost more because of memory chip shortages.
The U.S. economy has rarely been this dependent on one technology cycle continuing to deliver. | 133 |
| 11 |  🇺🇸 The U.S. economy is now running on AI ⌨️
AI has become one of the main engines of recent U.S. growth.
- Oxford Economics estimates AI investment alone accounts for nearly 25% of recent GDP growth.
- Business spending on AI-related categories is running at roughly $1.5T annualized, up from $1T two years ago.
- Data center construction spending hit $68.3B annualized in June, up $21.5B YoY.
- At the same time, all other private construction fell by $101.6B.
- The AI stock rally has added trillions to household net worth, with U.S. household net worth reaching $174T in Q1.
Put together, AI-related factors may be responsible for roughly one-third of recent U.S. economic growth. | 133 |
| 12 |  🚨 PSA: Timbre+ Credits Refund 🚨
Quick reminder for anyone who still has credits inside the Timbre+ app.
Timbre+ Hawkers will stop operating One Punggol Hawker Centre, with NEA calling for a new operator and Timbre+ ending its tenancy on 14 Aug 2026.
If you still have unused Timbre+ credits, don’t leave them sitting there. You can check the app and request for a refund directly from there.
For refunds less than $50, technically need to head down to the location to get cash refund .. but the hack is to top up to
> $50 and request refund via Paynow LOL (see screenshot)
Small money still money 🤤, especially when app credits are easy to forget.
What to do:
- Open your Timbre+ app
- Check if you still have stored credits
- Use them up or request a refund
- Remind your family members too, especially if they frequent One Punggol or Yishun Park Hawker Centre
Source: https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/one-punggol-hawker-centre-to-get-new-operator-open-tender-to-be-called-in-jan-2026 | 150 |
| 13 |  Markets are also pricing in a probable 25bps rate 🚨HIKE🚨 (63% target rate probability) for the next FOMC meeting in September...
Lots of volatility ahead , will keep u guys updated okie 🫡 | 168 |
| 14 |  🧑💻 Even with all that , Big Tech’s AI capex is still rising tho 🥺
Btw, capex stands for capital expenditures, which means the big money tech companies spend to buy physical things and long-term tools like data centers, computer chips, and power plants to build and run artificial intelligence
The chart of the week shows combined capital expenditure and free cash flow for Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft and Oracle.
Capex has been rising sharply since 2023 and is expected to keep climbing through 2029.
The chart estimates combined capex moving toward around US$1.1 trillion+ by 2029. Free cash flow is expected to recover later, but the near-term picture shows how expensive the AI infrastructure race has become.
This is the KEY market question around AI:
Can Big Tech turn huge AI spending into enough future revenue and free cash flow?
If yes, the spending supports long-term growth. If not, investors may start questioning whether AI capex is becoming too heavy relative to returns. | 156 |
| 15 |  🇺🇸 And the results: Rates left unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% 🚫
Stock Market Highlights 🇺🇸
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1,152.46 points to close at 51,594.86.
The S&P 500 lost 1.5% to finish at 7,316.37, heavily pressured by industrial and tech sector pullbacks.
The Nasdaq 100 fell 2% to 27,192.31 amid ongoing concerns over heavy capital spending on AI infrastructure.
📈 Bond Market and Yields
The 30-year Treasury yield surged 12 basis points to 5.21%, reaching its highest level since 2007.
The 10-year Treasury yield jumped 7 basis points.
This reaction reveals that investors are resetting their expectations for the economy, inflation, and interest rates. | 110 |
| 16 |  🏦 Markets are Unusually Uncertain about the Fed 🇺🇸
Markets are heading into the latest Federal Reserve decision with unusually high uncertainty. Traders are pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance of a surprise rate hike at Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as Fed Chairman. That level of uncertainty is rare in recent Fed history.
Open interest in August federal funds futures also hit a record 967,000 contracts, as traders rushed to hedge against a surprise outcome.
Warsh has rejected the forward guidance framework that made Fed decisions more predictable for the past two decades.
If the Fed holds rates steady, markets will question whether Warsh is data-dependent or backing away from inflation pressure.
If the Fed hikes, it would mark a sharp break from central bank norms and reset expectations for the tightening cycle.
Either way, the first market reaction may be sharper than usual. | 100 |
| 17 |  🔥 Value stocks are Beating Growth this year 📈
One of the more surprising market storylines of 2026:
The Russell 1000 Value Index is up roughly 20%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index is down around 1.6%.
That is a reversal from the past few years, where growth stocks dominated.
But the reason is not traditional “cheap value” stocks like banks, utilities or energy.
A June index reconstitution moved Apple, Amazon and Microsoft into the value index, while chip stocks like Micron, AMD and Western Digital were moved into growth near their peak. So value benefited from picking up megacap tech names near their lows, while growth got more exposed to semiconductors before they sold down.
The Russell Value Index still trades cheaper than growth, at about 18x forward P/E versus 26x for growth. | 137 |
| 18 |  JUST IN: 🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI stock market crashes another 7% today. 📉🚨 | 144 |
| 19 |  🇰🇷KOSPI Trading Halted After 8% Plunge as SK Hynix ADR Falls Below $140 🔻
South Korea halted trading in KOSPI-listed shares for 20 minutes on July 28 after the benchmark index fell more than 8%, marking its eighth circuit-breaker activation of 2026.
It’s now trading below 6000 …
SK Hynix’s U.S.-listed ADR, traded under the ticker SKHY, fell below USD 140 and was last quoted at USD 139.45, down 11.89% over the past 24 hours. SK Hynix is one of the world’s largest memory-chip manufacturers and a leading supplier of high-bandwidth memory used in AI processors. | 162 |
| 20 |  📉 | 165 |
