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| التاريخ | نمو المشتركين | الإشارات | القنوات | |
| 03 يوليو | +3 | |||
| 02 يوليو | +1 | |||
| 01 يوليو | +5 |
منشورات القناة
| 2 | Weak US Jobs Report Pushes Back Fed Rate-Hike Expectations
The June US employment report delivered a clear downside surprise, with nonfarm payrolls rising by only 57,000, well below expectations of 113,000. Previous months were also revised lower by a combined 74,000 jobs, leaving the overall shortfall at roughly 130,000.
Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined to 4.2%, the weak headline figure and downward revisions suggest that the underlying labor market is losing momentum. This should reduce the immediate pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates again.
Markets have already responded by pushing back expectations for an October rate hike. Before the report, an increase by that meeting was effectively fully priced. That is no longer the case, with investors now expecting the Fed to remain on hold for longer while it assesses whether the slowdown in hiring represents a temporary setback or a broader deterioration in employment conditions.
The initial market reaction is supportive for both bonds and equities. Treasury yields have declined, particularly at the short end of the curve, as investors price in a less aggressive path for monetary policy. Lower yields also reduce the discount rate applied to future corporate earnings, providing near-term support for stock valuations.
The US dollar, however, appears more vulnerable. The decline in real yields weakens one of the currency’s most important sources of support. If upcoming economic data continue to moderate, the dollar may struggle to extend its recent gains, particularly given the already crowded positioning in favour of the greenback.
However, the report does not necessarily remove the possibility of future rate hikes. Core inflation remains above 3%, and a prolonged pause could allow inflation expectations to rise again. If the Fed delays tightening for too long, it may eventually be forced to deliver larger or more sustained increases later.
The key takeaway is that the jobs report has reduced the probability of an imminent rate hike, but it has not resolved the Fed’s policy dilemma. The central bank is now facing a weaker labour market while inflation remains uncomfortably high. That combination is likely to keep markets highly sensitive to every inflation and employment release over the coming months. | 248 |
| 3 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 242 |
| 4 | US JUNE NONFARM PAYROLLS RISE 57K M/M; EST. +113K
US JUNE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 4.2%; EST. 4.3%
US JOBLESS CLAIMS 215,000 IN JUNE 27 WEEK; EST. 218K
US JUNE TWO-MONTH PAYROLL NET REVISION SUBTRACTS 74,000 | 245 |
| 5 | Dollar More Vulnerable Than Last Month to a Payrolls Miss
Weak US jobs data is rarely good news for the dollar but the greenback is more exposed to an underwhelming report than last month.
A hawkish shift in market expectations around the Federal Reserve is the most notable change in the backdrop since the last report. That matters because it leaves more room for a dovish repricing without traders having to bet on rate cuts.
The other difference is the situation in the Middle East. Brent was above $90 a barrel immediately before the last US jobs data release and the dollar’s direction was still being driven by haven demand as the war ebbed and flowed. That meant dollar declines after any downside surprise in payrolls would have been limited as investors were reluctant to give up the only reliable haven asset. The correlation between oil and the dollar has since weakened, meaning the dollar can be swayed more easily by economic data this time around.
Risk of intervention by Japanese authorities will also be on traders’ minds. That leaves the dollar in a precarious position. Its haven cushion has diminished and there is risk of a knee-jerk drop if Japanese authorities act. Throw a weak jobs report into the mix and today’s dollar selloff could get a lot worse. | 261 |
| 6 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 245 |
| 7 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 63 |
| 8 | 🛑US JUNE ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 53.3; EST. 53.9
🛑US JUNE ISM MANUFACTURING PRICE INDEX FALLS TO 73 VS 82.1
🛑US JUNE ISM MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT RISES TO 49.7 VS 48.6 | 302 |
| 9 | Bond Curve Steepens as Fed Warsh Reinforces Fed Inflation Target
The Treasury curve steepened after Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target while emphasizing the economy’s resilience -- a combination that reinforces the bond market’s pricing of lower inflation compensation alongside stronger real-growth expectations.
WARSH: TACTICS, STRATEGY FOR PRICE STABILITY STILL TO COME
WARSH: HAVE RE-COMMITTED TO DELIVERING PRICE STABILITY
WARSH: HAVE TO DELIVER BOTH ON EMPLOYMENT AND STABLE PRICES
WARSH: HAVE RE-COMMITTED TO DELIVERING PRICE STABILITY
WARSH: US NOT AFRAID OF PRODUCTIVITY-LED ECONOMIC GROWTH | 309 |
| 10 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 289 |
| 11 | ⚠️ ADP US JUNE PRIVATE EMPLOYMENT RISES 98,000; EST. +120K | 293 |
| 12 | Yield Curve Steepens as Longer Bonds Sell Off
US 10-year yields are pushing higher, driving the 2s-10s curve to session highs and breakeven inflation higher. There’s no obvious driver, so it could just be quarter-end repositioning still. It’s telling though that the 2s-10s spread is pushing above 30 basis points. That’s a level that it has tested repeatedly ever since the bear flattening after the June FOMC meeting. So far, it’s not held, but it does look as if someone out there is pushing for a steeper curve.
The 2s-30s curve is up 2.4 basis points on the day, and is also the steepest since June 17. It looks set to test 80 basis points. | 301 |
| 13 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 312 |
| 14 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 322 |
| 15 | **Let the market test 163, and see whether Warsh’s Sintra appearance Wednesday confirms what some are already whispering: that peak Fed hawkishness came and went at his maiden press conference. | 336 |
| 16 |  Yen Bears Eye 163 as Yields, Not Japan Officials, Call the Shots
Options flagged the yen’s slide below 162 earlier this month. Now they’re pointing at 163.
History is unkind to unilateral FX intervention. And it’s downright brutal when the fundamentals are leaning the other way, which is exactly the trap Japan finds itself in.
Rewind to the end-April intervention. USD/JPY was trading around 160, and the US-Japan two-year yield spread sat at 260 basis points. Last week that gap widened to 280 basis points. That’s essentially the engine behind the 162 break. Warsh’s hawkish angle at the latest Fed meeting was the accelerator.
Could Tokyo step in anyway, even without the volatile, blow-off move that usually gives intervention cover and with the macro story working against it? For sure. They’ve done it before. But the smarter play might be patience.
Let the market test 163, and see whether Warsh’s Sintra appearance Wednesday confirms what some are already whispering: that peak Fed hawkishness came and went a | 354 |
| 17 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 321 |
| 18 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 375 |
| 19 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 411 |
| 20 | Equiti Securities Currencies Brokers LLC Letterhead English.pdf | 550 |
