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🔍 Views & insights from Eurasia on: West Asia, Russia, Balkans (occasionally about the West/Rest). 🎋Our Man in China @chinadream_EN ⚠️ We drink🍷read 📚 and 🔮 things
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The Israeli "tactical cattle" herd in the Golan Heights is not a quirky border patrol tactic but Netanyahu's first move in a calculated escalation designed to shatter the US-Iran MOU.
By seeding a permanent civilian-agricultural presence in the occupied Syrian enclave, Israel is testing how far it can push before triggering a wider military response. The cows are the bait. The real objective is to intensify the war on Syria, provoke a confrontation that draws in Turkey and Hezbollah, and force Trump to choose between his deal with Iran and alliance with Israel. Netanyahu is betting that a widening regional fire will pull the US back into the conflict, derailing a diplomatic process that has already sidelined Israel and left him politically cornered. This is not about livestock or even Israel's interests. It is about a desperate leader willing to burn the region down (along with his nation, as Sun Tzu warned) to avoid facing his own reckoning.
| 2 | Turkish File Open - Israel's New War Tactic: Bloodless Conquest of Syria Through Cows and Chaos
In January 2026, the IDF quietly deployed a 140-cow herd into a 10,000-dunam Israeli-controlled enclave beyond the Golan Heights fence, near the Rokad River. The herd creates a permanent civilian-agricultural presence that serves as an early warning system, keeps Syrian herders away from IDF posts, and transforms empty military terrain into settled agricultural land, effectively consolidating control without firing a shot.
The Bigger Picture: This pastoral tactic is a microcosm of Israel's broader strategic shift in Syria. Since the collapse of the Assad govt. in December 2024, Israel has moved aggressively to expand its military footprint in southern Syria, stoking sectarian tensions in the Druze-majority region and encouraging an Alawite insurgency against the new government. Israeli Minister Amichai Chikli has openly stated that Syria and Turkey "pose a greater strategic challenge to Israel than Iran," and that Israel will wage war on Syria "sooner or later."
Why This Matters: Turkey is actively working to consolidate a stable, unified Syrian state under Al-Sharaa, a direct counter to Israel's goal of keeping Syria weak and fragmented. As one analyst put it, "Turkey is the new Iran." Israeli officials view Ankara's expanding influence in Syria as an existential threat. Meanwhile, Turkey has condemned Israel's incursions as "unprecedented," demanding the UN intervene to halt the violations.
Bottom Line: After Iranian debacle, the Turkish file is now open. Israel is preparing for a confrontation that will define the next phase of the Middle East/West Asia post-American order (but not in a way Netanyahu dreamed of). | 28 |
| 3 | ⏳ Another Arab surprise:
Iranian and Qatari defense ministers vowed joint security cooperation (despite earlier waves of Iranian ballistic missiles hitting the U.S.-operated Al Udeid Air Base in Doha). Qatari Dep. PM Sheikh Saoud Al Thani held a late-night phone call with Iranian acting Defense Minister Majid Ebn Reza to review "regional coordination." | 51 |
| 4 | The evil men (if you are unsure) are: Netanyahu and Zelensky. | 26 |
| 5 | This... is closer than many think. | 29 |
| 6 |  ❗️🇺🇦🇷🇺The map Putin refers to. 👆🏼
The rest, of course, goes back to Russia, as Malorossiya (Little Russia), and Novorossiya (New Russia).
History will put everything in its place, we won't do anything. But we won't give what's ours. That's what everyone needs to understand.
#Russia #Ukraine #peace #future | 29 |
| 7 |  🎭 Pick your favorite evil man... | 37 |
| 8 | US paid Israel one dollar for a piece of land to build an embassy in Jerusalem, US Ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee said. 🙊
... because that's what you do with stolen goods/land. Thieves and both sides. | 43 |
| 9 | 🇮🇶⚡️🇷🇺🇨🇳 Iraq to join BRICS soon (enough)... another SURPRISE coming from the Arabs 😉 | 61 |
| 10 | 🇮🇶🇮🇷 Iraq proposed to restore the meetings format between Iran, Iraq, and the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf and is ready to host such a meeting in Baghdad, said Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein. Iraq with Oman was the main mediator in the last Saudi-Iranian rapprochement which culminated in Beijing meeting in March 2023. | 81 |
| 11 | Saudi Arabia expected to host reconciliation talks between Iran and the Gulf countries following recent conflict, signaling a possible diplomatic breakthrough in the region. A regional summit in Riyadh is reportedly being planned to ease tensions and rebuild trust between Tehran and its Arab neighbours.
As we said earlier this month (not to mention much earlier than that)... more surprises coming from the Landscape of shifting sands😉. Arab-Persian alliance in the making, inshaallah! | 117 |
| 12 |  Trump shares article on how HE 'holds the cards in Netanyahu's SHAKY reelection chances' | 103 |
| 13 | Israeli media reports suggest Netanyahu's coalition may lose upcoming elections. Trump administration officials reportedly contacted opposition figures Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot, potential challengers to Netanyahu. Despite Trump praising Netanyahu as a "warrior," policy differences have raised questions about their relationship. Netanyahu faces mounting political pressure and polls indicate a difficult electoral battle ahead. | 98 |
| 14 |  🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇱MIGA, regime change? | 83 |
| 15 | 'For the FIRST TIME since the establishment of Israel, the brand 'Israel' is a net negative in the United States...
THAT'S A DISASTER'
Former Israeli PM Naftali Bennett | 97 |
| 16 | As we said earlier this month... the question remains...
Who's gonna screw whom here... Will they Mos-sad Trump or... will Yankees let Israel undo itself!? | 83 |
| 17 |  Former Israeli Intelligence Officer Ari Ben-Menashe: ‘Donald Trump’s LIFE IS IN DANGER after signing the MoU with Iran, and he knows it. But he did the right thing to get the US out of the entanglement with Iran.’
Watch the full interview: https://rumble.com/v7blsxa-trumps-life-is-in-danger-from-israel-after-deal-with-iranex-israeli-intel-o.html?e9s=src_v1_ucp_a | 84 |
| 18 | Turkey and Saudi rebuilding Hijaz Railway, basically eliminating IMEC. Good move! | 1 316 |
| 19 | On March 4, only about a week into the "Second US/real War on Iran" we laid out 4 scenarios, of which 2&4 had highest probability score. As events continued to develop on the ground, Scenario 2 emerged as a dominant one. After 100+ days of war, so-called "ceasefire" incl., this Scenario holds, and is confirmed by Prof. R. Pape (real Professor not a YouTube fraud). | 152 |
| 20 | Assessment: Potential Trajectories Following a U.S./Israel Military Strike on Iran
Date: March 2026
Author: Strategic Foresight/The Oriental View
Scenario 1: The Existential Cascade
The Erosion of the Nuclear Taboo Leading to Global War
In this high-risk / low-probability trajectory, a conventional U.S.-Israeli operation fails to neutralize Iran's strategic capabilities. Facing unacceptable losses from asymmetric retaliation and domestic collapse, Israel, potentially with tacit U.S. approval, employs tactical nuclear weapons against hardened Iranian nuclear and military facilities.
The Tipping Point: The use of battlefield nuclear weapons irrevocably shatters the post-1945 nuclear taboo. Adversary states, particularly North Korea, interpret the strike as a doctrinal shift in U.S. escalation policy. Fearing a preemptive decapitation strike, Pyongyang launches a limited nuclear barrage against U.S. force concentrations in the Pacific and Seoul to guarantee regime survival.
The Cascade:
1. U.S. Retaliation: Washington responds with a full-scale strategic strike against North Korea.
2. Great Power Entanglement: Radioactive fallout and military chaos on the Korean Peninsula force China onto a supreme war footing. A miscalculation or inadvertent engagement between U.S. and PLA forces in the region escalates into a strategic nuclear exchange.
3. Global Configuration: Russia, viewing the U.S.-China conflict as the onset of a general world war and adhering to its "escalate to de-escalate" doctrine, launches its full retaliatory arsenal against NATO and U.S. homeland targets.
Outcome: A full-scale nuclear exchange devastates the Northern Hemisphere, ending Western civilization. The conflict ceases to have political objectives; it reverts to a struggle for bare survival in a post-apocalyptic environment. Winners: None.
Scenario 2: The Multipolar Pivot
Stalemate Forcing a New Security Architecture
This scenario assumes a protracted, costly war of attrition. Iran leverages its asymmetric capabilities (cyber warfare, missile barrages, and proxy networks) to inflict sustained economic damage, triggering a deep global recession. The U.S. finds itself in a military quagmire with no viable path to victory and eroding domestic support.
The Strategic Recalculation: Facing political collapse at home, a weakened U.S. administration is forced to seek a diplomatic off-ramp. With its military credibility diminished, Washington cannot dictate terms. It must negotiate as an impaired party.
The Brokerage: Russia and China, whose influence expanded during the conflict, emerge as the primary guarantors of a ceasefire. The resulting settlement is modeled on a "Concert of Powers" system, echoing Beijing's Global Security Initiative (GSI). It emphasizes multilateral guarantees and recognized spheres of influence.
Outcome: The post-Cold War U.S.-centric order is formally dissolved. Iran is integrated as a legitimate regional stakeholder under a new great-power understanding. Security is no longer imposed unilaterally but managed via direct understanding between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Winners: Russia, China, Iran.
Scenario 3: Systemic Fracture
Protracted War and the Collapse of the Old Order
The conflict degenerates into a years-long war of attrition, avoiding nuclear escalation but destroying the global economy through permanent energy shocks, hyperinflation, and broken supply chains. The strain proves too great for existing international structures.
The Fragmentation:
· Europe: The European Union fractures politically as member states clash over refugee flows, rationing, and security burdens. The bloc ceases to function as a unified actor.
· The Global South: The post-colonial legacy of arbitrary borders and implanted states becomes a mainstream narrative of blame, fueling irredentist conflicts and state collapse.
· Power Vacuum: As traditional Western powers are consumed by internal crises and diminished credibility, non-state actors & regional proxies fill the void.(pt 2)👇🏼 | 138 |
