The Oriental 🥷
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🔍 Views & insights from Eurasia on: West Asia, Russia, Balkans (occasionally about the West/Rest). 🎋Our Man in China @chinadream_EN ⚠️ We drink🍷read 📚 and 🔮 things
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Channel Posts
🏚🇮🇱 'Israeli' Minister of Defense, Katz, boasts of genocide and the destruction of entire Palestinian cities.
"We have destroyed Gaza, both above and below ground. It no longer exists.''
| 2 | No text... | 38 |
| 3 | 🇮🇱🙏🇺🇸 Netanyahu has reportedly been "begging" for an invitation to a new meeting with Trump since April, per Politico's sources
On Monday, Netanyahu flew to DC, where he will supposedly meet with Trump to discuss current issues, including the situation surrounding Iran. Some sources say he won't meet Trump officially, but both will attend Graham's funeral.
What a symbolic place for a meeting... over a coffin... | 43 |
| 4 |  ‘You know who wouldn’t survive without us? ISRAEL’ — Trump
‘If I didn’t get involved… Israel would have been terminated months ago’ | 46 |
| 5 |  It’s one of the deciding periods in Russian history, the fate of our country and our people is at stake — Vladimir Putin
'That’s not an exaggeration'
'We’re seeing fierce competition for a new international order that is taking shape' | 48 |
| 6 | 🇮🇷👍🇸🇦 Iran supports Saudi nuclear program! 😉 | 48 |
| 7 | No text... | 79 |
| 8 | 🇮🇷🇱🇧💥🇮🇱 Joint Iran-Hezbollah strike could cripple Israel’s energy lifelines, report says
Israel’s reliance on a small number of offshore rigs, desalination plants and ports leaves vital services vulnerable to a coordinated multi-domain assault... - Jerusalem Post | 60 |
| 9 |  You know you're brain dead when you make ''historical movies'' with cast like this... | 62 |
| 10 |  President Trump:
If Iran does not fully comply with our demands, we will consider resuming the conflict with full force. | 66 |
| 11 |  🇷🇺📈🛢Russia's revenue from oil and gas sales, which accounts for about a fifth of all budget revenues, increased by 60% in July compared to the same month last year, thanks to rising global oil prices. - Reuters | 64 |
| 12 | 🇺🇸⚡️🇮🇷 We'll wait and see what happens after this weekend. ... | 66 |
| 13 |  Trump PRAISES Xi and Putin for not 'participating' in Iran or selling weapons
'IF THEY DID IT WOULD BE VERY BAD FOR THEM' | 66 |
| 14 | Intelligence Brief: Future B – The Iranian Counter-Strike (The "Rope-a-Dope" Offensive)
Date: July 24, 2026
Part 2 (Part 1）
Executive Summary
Iran is executing a classic "rope-a-dope" strategy, absorbing US-Israeli strikes while systematically depleting regional air defenses. The objective is to create a window of opportunity for a decisive offensive against Israel in August 2026, breaking its military dominance and establishing Iran as the preeminent regional power.
The Core Strategic Concept
The Iranian strategy has been consistently described by analysts as a classic "rope-a-dope" defense, modeled on Muhammad Ali's famous boxing strategy of absorbing punishment while tiring out the opponent. As one economist put it, "the war planners in Washington, D.C. and Jerusalem apparently never understood that, when under attack, Iran would adopt Muhammad Ali's classic rope-a-dope strategy". The US has used "overwhelming force to eliminate almost all of Iran's military infrastructure", but Iran has absorbed the blows and is now preparing to counterpunch. Retired General Wesley Clark has noted that "they can play rope-a-dope for a long time", as Iran has been preparing for this fight for years.
Phase 1: The Depletion of Regional Air Defenses
Iran has already begun the first phase of its strategy. Recent missile strikes on Jordan have been described as a "shaping operation" to knock out air defenses for a renewed assault on Israel. Attacks have targeted three air-defense sites in Jordan, including bases hosting American forces. This is part of a broader Iranian campaign to:
· Deplete regional interceptor stockpiles
· Strain Israel's air defense network
· Force Israel to respond to simultaneous attacks in multiple areas
· Create gaps in the defense network that can be exploited in a subsequent large-scale offensive
The depletion of interceptors in Kuwait and Jordan is a key enabler for the August offensive.
Phase 2: The August Offensive
Iran's strategic objective is to "boost the price of energy globally to pressure the White House to cede control of the strait altogether", but its tactical objective is to cripple Israel's air defense systems and deliver a decisive blow.
Once regional air defenses are sufficiently degraded, Iran will launch a massive, coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military and civilian infrastructure. The attack will be designed to:
· Overwhelm the remaining defenses
· Bypass the Iron Dome
· Inflict maximum damage on strategic targets
The goal is not to destroy Israel, but to shatter its aura of invincibility and force a fundamental recalibration of regional power.
The Role of the Axis of Resistance
Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias will play a supporting role in the offensive, opening secondary fronts and stretching Israeli resources even further. The "Axis of Resistance" is fully mobilized, with its "primary objectives" including to "expand Iranian influence in the Middle East, resist U.S. hegemony, act against Israel".
The coordinated attack will involve the following Actors / Roles:
▪️Hezbollah - Massive rocket and missile barrage from Lebanon
▪️Houthis - Continued missile and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel
▪️Iraqi Militias - Attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria
Iran Primary missile and drone strikes on Israeli military and infrastructure targets
The Strategic Window
The depletion of air defenses is an ongoing process; the window for a decisive strike is now. Iran's strategy assumes that time is running out for its adversaries.
Phase / Timeline / Objective:
- Depletion - July 2026 - Degrade air defenses in Kuwait, Jordan, and Israel
- Offensive - August 2026 -- Massive coordinated strike on Israel
- Consolidation - September 2026 -- Force regional recalibration
The Intelligence Assessment
The Iranian counter-strategy is more immediate and more likely to succeed in the short term. The depletion of air defenses is a verifiable trend. A coordinated strike in August could inflict significant damage on Israel and fundamentally alter the regional balance of power.
The US strategy, by contrast, is ambitious but faces significant structural obstacles. The "vassal states" (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq) are unlikely to accept permanent subordination without resistance. Saudi Arabia is hedging, and Turkey's cooperation is transactional. The pipeline project is vulnerable to disruption by Iranian-backed proxies, among other things.
The most likely outcome is a protracted, destabilizing stalemate, with periods of intense conflict followed by pauses for rearmament. | 85 |
| 15 | No text... | 58 |
| 16 | 🇮🇷🇮🇶❌🇺🇸 Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraqi PM - Al Arabiya https://ara.tv/9r5fo | 64 |
| 17 |  🇺🇸🇮🇷🇷🇺 — Reporter: "Is Russia helping Iran target US troops?"
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: "Nice hairstyle".
@TheWarReporter | 69 |
| 18 | 😁 Saudi source on Trump's normalization with Israel demand: ''Tweets don't overturn signed deals!'' | 72 |
| 19 | 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷⚡️ Meanwhile: Trump to Axios on Iran:
I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it. They haven't received enough pain yet.
Israel would join in two minutes if I asked them to, but we don't need anybody.
There will be consequences for Israel if they join the strikes against Iran. - TabZ
... Let's see how that goes... | 70 |
| 20 | 🇮🇷🇮🇶 Pezeshkian meets Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi - calls for cross-sector cooperation pact emphasizing intertwined security
Pezeshkian demanded rapid implementation of economic, infrastructure, and border security agreements. He envisioned an integrated rail and road network to boost transit, trade, and investment, citing European models and common cultural bonds including the Arbaeen pilgrimage.
PM al-Zaidi reaffirmed Baghdad's strategic commitment, vowing Iraqi territory would never serve as a base for threats against the Islamic Republic. He thanked Iran for support against terrorist groups and stressed dedication to bilateral security. The delegation, including key economic ministers, aims to finalize trade, healthcare, and academic agreements to turn mutual intentions into tangible outcomes.
Al-Zaidi recently visited Washington and met with Trump... earlier this year he proposed Iraqi mediation between US and Iran. Eyes on Iraq... | 385 |
