The Oriental 🥷
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🔍 Views & insights from Eurasia on: West Asia, Russia, Balkans (occasionally about the West/Rest). 🎋Our Man in China @chinadream_EN ⚠️ We drink🍷read 📚 and 🔮 things
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Channel Posts
| 2 |  Trump PRAISES Xi and Putin for not 'participating' in Iran or selling weapons
'IF THEY DID IT WOULD BE VERY BAD FOR THEM' | 15 |
| 3 | Intelligence Brief: Future B – The Iranian Counter-Strike (The "Rope-a-Dope" Offensive)
Date: July 24, 2026
Part 2 (Part 1）
Executive Summary
Iran is executing a classic "rope-a-dope" strategy, absorbing US-Israeli strikes while systematically depleting regional air defenses. The objective is to create a window of opportunity for a decisive offensive against Israel in August 2026, breaking its military dominance and establishing Iran as the preeminent regional power.
The Core Strategic Concept
The Iranian strategy has been consistently described by analysts as a classic "rope-a-dope" defense, modeled on Muhammad Ali's famous boxing strategy of absorbing punishment while tiring out the opponent. As one economist put it, "the war planners in Washington, D.C. and Jerusalem apparently never understood that, when under attack, Iran would adopt Muhammad Ali's classic rope-a-dope strategy". The US has used "overwhelming force to eliminate almost all of Iran's military infrastructure", but Iran has absorbed the blows and is now preparing to counterpunch. Retired General Wesley Clark has noted that "they can play rope-a-dope for a long time", as Iran has been preparing for this fight for years.
Phase 1: The Depletion of Regional Air Defenses
Iran has already begun the first phase of its strategy. Recent missile strikes on Jordan have been described as a "shaping operation" to knock out air defenses for a renewed assault on Israel. Attacks have targeted three air-defense sites in Jordan, including bases hosting American forces. This is part of a broader Iranian campaign to:
· Deplete regional interceptor stockpiles
· Strain Israel's air defense network
· Force Israel to respond to simultaneous attacks in multiple areas
· Create gaps in the defense network that can be exploited in a subsequent large-scale offensive
The depletion of interceptors in Kuwait and Jordan is a key enabler for the August offensive.
Phase 2: The August Offensive
Iran's strategic objective is to "boost the price of energy globally to pressure the White House to cede control of the strait altogether", but its tactical objective is to cripple Israel's air defense systems and deliver a decisive blow.
Once regional air defenses are sufficiently degraded, Iran will launch a massive, coordinated missile and drone attack on Israeli military and civilian infrastructure. The attack will be designed to:
· Overwhelm the remaining defenses
· Bypass the Iron Dome
· Inflict maximum damage on strategic targets
The goal is not to destroy Israel, but to shatter its aura of invincibility and force a fundamental recalibration of regional power.
The Role of the Axis of Resistance
Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Iraqi militias will play a supporting role in the offensive, opening secondary fronts and stretching Israeli resources even further. The "Axis of Resistance" is fully mobilized, with its "primary objectives" including to "expand Iranian influence in the Middle East, resist U.S. hegemony, act against Israel".
The coordinated attack will involve the following Actors / Roles:
▪️Hezbollah - Massive rocket and missile barrage from Lebanon
▪️Houthis - Continued missile and drone attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel
▪️Iraqi Militias - Attacks on US bases in Iraq and Syria
Iran Primary missile and drone strikes on Israeli military and infrastructure targets
The Strategic Window
The depletion of air defenses is an ongoing process; the window for a decisive strike is now. Iran's strategy assumes that time is running out for its adversaries.
Phase / Timeline / Objective:
- Depletion - July 2026 - Degrade air defenses in Kuwait, Jordan, and Israel
- Offensive - August 2026 -- Massive coordinated strike on Israel
- Consolidation - September 2026 -- Force regional recalibration
The Intelligence Assessment
The Iranian counter-strategy is more immediate and more likely to succeed in the short term. The depletion of air defenses is a verifiable trend. A coordinated strike in August could inflict significant damage on Israel and fundamentally alter the regional balance of power.
The US strategy, by contrast, is ambitious but faces significant structural obstacles. The "vassal states" (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, Iraq) are unlikely to accept permanent subordination without resistance. Saudi Arabia is hedging, and Turkey's cooperation is transactional. The pipeline project is vulnerable to disruption by Iranian-backed proxies, among other things.
The most likely outcome is a protracted, destabilizing stalemate, with periods of intense conflict followed by pauses for rearmament. | 18 |
| 4 | No text... | 18 |
| 5 | 🇮🇷🇮🇶❌🇺🇸 Iran rejects US ceasefire proposal delivered by Iraqi PM - Al Arabiya https://ara.tv/9r5fo | 33 |
| 6 |  🇺🇸🇮🇷🇷🇺 — Reporter: "Is Russia helping Iran target US troops?"
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: "Nice hairstyle".
@TheWarReporter | 46 |
| 7 | 😁 Saudi source on Trump's normalization with Israel demand: ''Tweets don't overturn signed deals!'' | 48 |
| 8 | 🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷⚡️ Meanwhile: Trump to Axios on Iran:
I am considering a massive attack. Bigger than ever before. I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it. They haven't received enough pain yet.
Israel would join in two minutes if I asked them to, but we don't need anybody.
There will be consequences for Israel if they join the strikes against Iran. - TabZ
... Let's see how that goes... | 46 |
| 9 | 🇮🇷🇮🇶 Pezeshkian meets Iraqi PM Ali al-Zaidi - calls for cross-sector cooperation pact emphasizing intertwined security
Pezeshkian demanded rapid implementation of economic, infrastructure, and border security agreements. He envisioned an integrated rail and road network to boost transit, trade, and investment, citing European models and common cultural bonds including the Arbaeen pilgrimage.
PM al-Zaidi reaffirmed Baghdad's strategic commitment, vowing Iraqi territory would never serve as a base for threats against the Islamic Republic. He thanked Iran for support against terrorist groups and stressed dedication to bilateral security. The delegation, including key economic ministers, aims to finalize trade, healthcare, and academic agreements to turn mutual intentions into tangible outcomes.
Al-Zaidi recently visited Washington and met with Trump... earlier this year he proposed Iraqi mediation between US and Iran. Eyes on Iraq... | 266 |
| 10 | Breaking news: Saudi Arabia needs to normalize relations with Israel to receive the U.S. nuclear technology it has long sought, President Trump said, adding a new condition to an agreement and throwing the future of that deal into confusion.
There. So Trump is trying to twist MBS's hand as if he can't get this deal from China or Russia. MBS who already told Trump that normalizing with Israel is ONLY possible after the establishment of an independent Palestinian state and after Bibi Netanyahu is gone. | 47 |
| 11 | No text... | 53 |
| 12 | 🇺🇸⚡️(🇸🇾)🇮🇶Washington unifies Syria and Iraq policy
Seth Franzman (of FDD) notes a shift to a unified approach covering the Persian Gulf, northern Iraq, Syria, and Eastern Mediterranean. Drivers include Tom Barrack's dual envoy role (retaining Ambassador to Turkey), Trump's bilateral meetings, a pivot to economic cooperation, and new overland oil routes bypassing Hormuz. This creates a single diplomatic framework for Ankara, Syria, and Baghdad, addressing vulnerability to Iran and Hormuz disruptions via export routes through Syria, Turkey, and the Mediterranean.
Implementation requires political control: subordinating Iraqi militias, unifying Syrian security, neutralizing ISIS, and reducing Syria-Israel tensions. The system assigns roles: Iraq (oil, finance, stability), Syria (transit, Mediterranean access), Turkey (logistics), Gulf states (capital), and the US (protection). The goal is replacing occupation with cheaper external control via local governments, infrastructure, and limited military presence.
Risks involve a fragmented region, reconciling diverse factions (Kurds, Arabs, Shia, Turkey, Israel, Damascus), and protecting infrastructure from ISIS and Iran. This strategy may increase US regional presence to ensure pipeline operations rather than reduce them. | 1 |
| 13 | ⚡️🇮🇷 In an attempt to involve Israel into the cycle of attacks on Iran, the US informed Israel that an Iranian attack on Israel is imminent.
So says Channel 14.
@medmannews | 51 |
| 14 | US President Donald Trump has formally approved an agreement with Saudi Arabia that will provide it with a civilian nuclear program and potentially open the door to uranium enrichment in the Kingdom, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday.
The new deal would last 30 years and is designed to give US companies “a central role in developing Saudi Arabia’s nuclear infrastructure.”
“A key provision of the new accord would have American companies build a uranium enrichment facility in Saudi Arabia if a joint US-Saudi study determines such a step would be warranted,” the WSJ report said.
Make it make sense. You bomb Iran to destroy its nuclear program, only to agree with Saudi on building their own... while at the same time bashing its leader MBS. Psychiatry... | 54 |
| 15 |  🇮🇷 Иран перебрасывает военную технику к границе с Кувейтом, сообщает Русская служба Гостелерадио Ирана.
🔴 Не грузит видео? Смотрите его в MAКС | 538 |
| 16 |  White House posts poll of OVERWHELMING support for Iran peace deal
Is that why US resumed the war? | 158 |
| 17 |  🇮🇷Just imagine spending decades and billions of dollars developing advanced aerospace technology. Thousands of engineers study aerodynamics, IT, and mechanical engineering to build one of the most sophisticated UAVs in the world.
Then a group of Lurs haul parts of an MQ-9 across the mountains on the back of a donkey so it can be reverse engineered.
🔴@DDGeopolitics | 116 |
| 18 | 🇺🇸⚡️🇨🇳 Trump planning to reveal previously undisclosed information about China's interference in U.S. elections in his upcoming address to the nation, according to CBS News, citing sources. | 106 |
| 19 | Senior Houthi official says the group is prepared to deploy the "thermonuclear" weapon Medvedev mentioned AND close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait if Saudi Arabia continues attacks on Yemen's critical infrastructure. | 122 |
| 20 | 🇺🇸❗️Trump announced that he has decided to replace the 20% tariff on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz with trade and investment deals between the countries of the Persian Gulf and the United States. | 112 |
