The 3rd Wave
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DISCLAIMER :- I'm not a SEBI registered analyst, all my views and charts are only for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for any kind of Loss or I have no share in your Profits. Before taking any position consult your financial advisor.
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Дописи каналу
📊 MAK CAPITAL | NIFTY 50 WEEKLY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Market Structure: Bearish ⚠️
Nifty 50 continues to trade under pressure, forming lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. The index is now testing a crucial historical support zone after a sharp correction from the 24,700–24,800 levels.
📉 1️⃣ RSI – 32.74
RSI is approaching the oversold zone. This indicates weakness, but remember: an oversold RSI does not automatically mean the market has bottomed out.
📉 2️⃣ MACD – Bearish
MACD remains deeply negative and below its signal line, confirming that bearish momentum is still dominant. A clear improvement in momentum is needed before expecting a sustainable recovery.
🎯 3️⃣ Key Support Levels
🔹 22,248–22,184: Crucial support zone
🔹 21,696: Next support if the current zone breaks
🔹 20,584: Deeper support in case selling intensifies
🚧 4️⃣ Key Resistance Levels
🔸 23,173: Immediate resistance
🔸 23,894: Major resistance
🔸 24,772: Important recovery level
📈 5️⃣ What Next?
✅ Bullish Scenario: If Nifty holds the 22,184–22,248 zone and forms a convincing reversal pattern, a recovery towards 22,700 and 23,173 is possible. A sustained move above 23,173 would improve the short-term outlook.
❌ Bearish Scenario: A decisive weekly close below 22,184 could open the door towards 21,696, with further downside risk if selling pressure continues.
💡 MAK Capital Strategy
At present, capital preservation and patience are more important than aggressive buying.
Avoid assuming that the market has bottomed out merely because valuations have corrected or RSI is near oversold territory. Watch price action around support and wait for confirmation before increasing exposure.
The market does not reward impatience. Discipline, risk management and selective accumulation matter most during uncertain phases.
— MAK Capital
Growing Wealth Together
Disclaimer: Technical analysis is indicative, not a guarantee of future market direction. This is for educational purposes only and not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
| 2 | For charts, need to wait for some time. | 112 |
| 3 | 📊 *MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together*
*Volatility Desk* | 08 Oct 2026 (EOD)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔸 *Market Snapshot*
▪️ Nifty 50: *22,231* 🔴 −1.65%
▪️ Intraday low: *22,179.9* (fresh 2026 low)
▪️ India VIX: 🔴 up ~10% (≈ 15.3)
▪️ Crude above $104, FII selling, metals & realty led the fall
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
❌ *Yesterday's Range Check*
▪️ Normal: 22,419 – 22,776
▪️ Extended: 22,242 – 22,957
▪️ Actual close: 22,231 → *Below extended range*
▪️ Such breaks happen ~5% of days. This one signals real selling pressure, not noise
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📈 *Model Track Record (1 Year)*
▪️ Normal range held: *74%* of days
▪️ Extended range held: *94%* of days
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧮 *Volatility Forecast*
▪️ Tomorrow's expected move: *0.91%* (≈ 202 pts)
▪️ Vol regime: 🔴 *Hot*, 1.09× its long-run average
▪️ Today's sharp fall has pushed volatility higher
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 *Range for 09 Oct (Fri)*
🟢 Normal range: *22,024 – 22,429*
🟡 Extended range: *21,824 – 22,634*
📍 Pivot: 22,231
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ *Model vs VIX*
▪️ VIX implied move: ~0.96% (≈ 213 pts)
▪️ Close to model → options fairly priced, slight tilt to sellers
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ *Event Alert*
▪️ TCS Q2: Profit *+15% YoY* (₹13,934 cr), beat estimates
▪️ Revenue +11% YoY, AI revenue up to $3.1 bn, ₹12 dividend
▪️ Positive for IT; may cushion Nifty near 22,180
▪️ Crude above $104 still the bigger risk for the index
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 *Bottom Line*
TCS beat may bring a relief bounce in IT, but 22,180 (2026 low) is still the line to watch. A close back above *22,429* = relief rally; a close below *21,824* = panic extension. Avoid naked option selling until volatility cools.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
_Statistical range for education only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with strict stop-loss._
*Mandarr A Kashikar*
MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together | 112 |
| 4 | What if you could get today’s trading range on your screen — and by 3:15 PM, have tomorrow’s range ready as well?
Imagine having a clear reference range before the next trading session unfolds.
No guesswork.
No chasing the market.
No waiting for signals after the move has already happened.
Just a systematic approach where today’s data helps prepare you for tomorrow’s trading range.
The idea is simple: define the range, let the market do its job, and allow the strategy to respond when the price enters the predefined zone.
One range. One framework. One disciplined approach.
More details coming soon. 🚀 | 114 |
| 5 | 📊 *MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together*
*Volatility Desk* | 07 Oct 2026 (EOD)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔸 *Market Snapshot*
▪️ Nifty 50: *22,603.05* 🔴 −0.76%
▪️ India VIX: *13.88* 🟢 +1.98%
▪️ RBI hikes repo 25 bps to 5.50%, stance → calibrated tightening
▪️ Rupee near record low, Brent above $100
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✅ *Yesterday's Range Check*
▪️ Forecast: 22,585 – 22,970
▪️ Actual close: 22,603 → *Inside range*
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧮 *Volatility Forecast*
▪️ Tomorrow's expected move: *0.84%* (≈ 190 pts)
▪️ Vol regime: Steady, near recent average
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 *Range for 08 Oct (Thu)*
🟢 Normal range (68%): *22,415 – 22,795*
🟡 Extended range (95%): *22,230 – 22,985*
📍 Pivot: 22,603
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ *Model vs VIX*
▪️ VIX implied move: 0.87% (≈ 198 pts)
▪️ VIX slightly above model → options mildly rich
▪️ Small edge to premium sellers, not a strong one
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ *Event Alert*
▪️ TCS Q2 results tomorrow, likely after market hours. Big reaction may come Friday, not Thursday
▪️ IT stocks may stay jumpy before the numbers
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 *Bottom Line*
22,800 rejected today and lines up with the top of the normal range. 22,230 (extended low) is near the 22,200 support zone. Sustained close outside *22,230 – 22,985* = trend move, respect it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
_Statistical range for education only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with strict stop-loss._
*Mandarr A Kashikar*
MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together | 120 |
| 6 | Nifty level 22585 honoured till this time.. exact low. Posted yday night. | 107 |
| 7 | 📊 *MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together*
*Volatility Desk* | 06 Oct 2026 (EOD)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔸 *Market Snapshot*
▪️ Nifty 50: *22,776.10* 🟢 +0.98%
▪️ India VIX: *13.56* 🔴 −8.25%
▪️ 2nd straight up day; fear easing ahead of RBI
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🧮 *Volatility Forecast*
▪️ Tomorrow's expected move: *0.84%* (≈ 190 pts)
▪️ Vol regime: Slightly above recent average
▪️ Today's +0.98% move adds fuel to tomorrow's volatility
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 *Range for 07 Oct (Wed)*
🟢 Normal range (68%): *22,585 – 22,970*
🟡 Extended range (95%): *22,395 – 23,160*
📍 Pivot: 22,776
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ *Model vs VIX*
▪️ VIX implied move: 0.85% (≈ 195 pts)
▪️ Model ≈ VIX → options fairly priced
▪️ No clear edge for buyers or sellers
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ *Event Alert*
▪️ RBI policy decision tomorrow
▪️ Model doesn't price scheduled events; treat extended range as realistic boundaries
▪️ Crude near $100, rupee weak, FII selling: downside more sensitive
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 *Bottom Line*
Expect a close within *22,585–22,970*. A break of *22,395* or *23,160* on RBI news = trend move, respect it.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
_Statistical range for education only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with strict stop-loss._
*Mandarr A Kashikar*
MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together | 126 |
| 8 | POSITIONAL SWING STOCKS
MEESHO CMP 238
STRICT SL 217
TGT OPEN TILL 340
SOTL CMP 775.5
STRICT SL 695
TGT OPEN TILL 1340
GRAPHITE CMP 851
STRICT SL 762
TGT OPEN TILL 1280 | 130 |
| 9 | POSITIONAL SWING STOCKS
TIMEX CMP 735
STRICT SL 695
TGT OPEN TILL 1670
SHADOWFAX CMP 289
STRICT SL 265
TGT OPEN TILL 390-455-1020
INDOMIM CMP 1320
STRICT SL 1215
TGT OPEN TILL 2470 | 152 |
| 10 | POSITIONAL SWING STOCKS
UNIVERSAL CABLES CMP 1520
STRICT SL 1070
TGT OPEN TILL 2175
SSWL CMP 410
STRICT SL 395
TGT OPEN TILL 590
PREMIERPOL CMP 101.5
STRICT SL 77
TGT OPEN TILL 170
USHAMARTIN CMP 510
STRICT SL 454
TGT OPEN TILL 1700 | 153 |
| 11 | MAK Trending Impulse weekly scanned Stocks. | 209 |
| 12 | 🇺🇸 US 10-YEAR TREASURY YIELD | A CRITICAL TECHNICAL ZONE
📊 Yield: 5.236%
The US 10Y Treasury Yield has been moving in a well-defined rising channel since March 2026.
But something interesting is happening now!
After a sharp rise, yields have reached the upper boundary of the channel near 5.30–5.35% and the latest daily candle shows rejection.
📉 Important Technical Levels
🔴 Resistance: 5.30–5.35%
🟡 Immediate Support: 5.20%
🟢 Next Support: 5.00–5.05%
🟢 Major Support: 4.80–4.85%
What if US yields start correcting?
A decline towards 5.00% or even 4.85% could provide some relief to global equity markets.
Why does this matter for India?
▪️ Potential improvement in FII sentiment.
▪️ Reduced pressure on equity valuations.
▪️ Possible relief for emerging-market currencies.
▪️ Better environment for risk assets, subject to other macro factors.
However, a sustained breakout above 5.35% could extend the upward trend in yields and keep global equities under pressure.
📌 MAK Capital Observation
US 10Y Yield is approaching a crucial inflection zone.
The next move could be important for global liquidity, FII flows and emerging markets.
Keep an eye on US Bond Yields. Sometimes, the biggest signals for equity markets emerge outside the equity charts.
— MAK Capital | Growing Wealth Together | 227 |
| 13 | 📊 MAK CAPITAL | NIFTY 50 WEEKLY OUTLOOK
🔴 Market View: Bearish | Major Support Test
Nifty has witnessed a sharp correction, breaking below the crucial 23,893 and 23,173 support levels.
The weekly structure has deteriorated, with lower highs, lower lows and weakening momentum.
📉 Technical Observations
▪️ Weekly Candle: Strong bearish candle indicating sustained selling pressure.
▪️ RSI: 31.06 – Approaching oversold territory. A technical bounce is possible, but reversal is not confirmed.
▪️ MACD: -207.92 | Signal: -45.89
Bearish crossover with both lines below zero, indicating strong negative momentum.
🎯 Important Levels
🟢 Major Support: 22,248–22,184
🟡 Next Support: 21,696
🔴 Extended Support: 20,583
Resistance:
23,173 → 23,893 → 24,772
📈 Two Possible Scenarios
1️⃣ If 22,184 Holds:
A technical recovery towards 22,700 → 23,173 → 23,893 is possible.
2️⃣ If 22,184 Breaks:
The next important support shifts towards 21,696, followed by 20,583.
💡 MAK Capital View
The trend remains bearish, but Nifty is approaching a crucial historical support zone.
RSI nearing oversold levels makes this area important to monitor for a potential reversal.
However, Oversold Does Not Mean Bottom.
For investors, staggered accumulation in fundamentally strong stocks may be considered, while traders should wait for price and momentum confirmation.
The next weekly candle will be crucial.
📌 Stay disciplined. Protect capital. Let the market confirm the direction.
— MAK Capital | Growing Wealth Together | 174 |
| 14 | Nifty Weekly View | 144 |
| 15 | POSITIONAL SWING STOCKS
LUMAXTECH CMP 2077
STRICT SL 1924
TGT OPEN TILL 2440-2980-3445
MOLBIO CMP 1308
STRICT SL 1229
TGT OPEN TILL 2000-2600
TFCI CMP 142
STRICT SL 121
TGT OPEN TILL 260-460
VARROC CMP 863
STRICT SL 824
TGT OPEN TILL 1440 | 191 |
| 16 | POSITIONAL SWING STOCKS
LUMAXTECH CMP 2077
STRICT SL 1924
TGT OPEN TILL 2440-2980-3445
MOLBIO CMP 1308
STRICT SL 1229
TGT OPEN TILL 2000-2600 | 44 |
| 17 | 📊 NIFTY × FIBONACCI — An Interesting Long-Term Observation
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📍 The Base
Nifty low of 775.45 (4 Dec 1996)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🔢 The Fibonacci Multiples
🔸 34 × base ≈ 26,350 → Nifty's high on 5 Jan 2026
🔸 21 × base = 16,284
🔸 Midpoint of 34x & 21x = 21,317 → the April 2026 low zone
🔸 55 × base = 42,650 → long-term projection
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 What Makes It Interesting
▪️ 55 ÷ 34 = 1.618, so 42,650 is simply a golden-ratio extension of the 26,350 high.
▪️ The fall from 26,350 to 21,317 is about 19.1%, which is exactly half of the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio.
▪️ In Elliott terms, a ~19% correction after a multi-decade run looks like a healthy pause, not the end of the bull cycle.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚖️ A Balanced View
▪️ The market clearly respected 26,350 and 21,300. That makes them important zones to watch.
▪️ Fibonacci levels work best as confluence, not as fixed laws. A different starting base gives different levels.
▪️ Nifty's journey from 775 is largely ~12.5% compounding over 29 years, driven by earnings and growth.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 Key Levels
🟢 Long-term target: 42,650 (roughly a 2030 story at ~12% CAGR)
🔸 Resistance zone: 26,350
🔴 Support zone: 21,300
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
✅ Bottom Line
This is an elegant Fibonacci confluence, not a forecast. The structure stays constructive above 21,300, and a fresh impulse above 26,350 would open the path towards 42,650 over the coming years.
Basic Idea by Manoj sir
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Please consult your financial advisor before investing.
Mandarr A Kashikar
MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together | 206 |
| 18 | S. Naren of ICICI Pru who has introduced ICICI EQUITY VALUATION MODEL for their use. The same way i have created it. It was shared with you few months back. Sharing with you again. All the metrics are live values.. | 242 |
| 19 | Немає тексту... | 243 |
| 20 | Немає тексту... | 1 |
