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The 3rd Wave

The 3rd Wave

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DISCLAIMER :- I'm not a SEBI registered analyst, all my views and charts are only for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for any kind of Loss or I have no share in your Profits. Before taking any position consult your financial advisor.

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*MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together* 🌍 *GLOBAL MARKET PULSE* 📅 Thursday, 29 Oct 2026 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇮🇳 *INDIA – Bulls Bounce Back* 🔸 Nifty 50: *22,936.75* 🟢 +1.05% 🔸 Sensex: *74,151.04* 🟢 +1.24% 🔸 Rupee: ~95.26/$ (still weak) Strong comeback today after two indecisive sessions. IT, banks and FMCG led the charge, and talk of an LTCG tax cut helped the mood. Nifty has now climbed back above the 22,800–22,830 hurdle, which is half of last week's fall. 🟢 Support: *22,800* / *22,370* 🔴 Resistance: *23,175* ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🇺🇸 *USA – Tech Wobbles* 🔸 Dow / S&P 500 / Nasdaq: all lower intraday, Nasdaq hit hardest (~-1.3%) 🔸 Wednesday closes: S&P *7,743.98* | Dow *52,475* | Nasdaq *26,550* Alphabet fell around 11% after its results. Its huge AI spending and negative free cash flow have revived the "are AI returns worth it?" worry. Microsoft went up, so this is a stock-specific question, not a full AI selloff. GDP came in strong at 3.4%. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🏦 *FED – The Hawks Are Back* The Fed held rates but 2 members voted for a *hike*. With oil above $100 and growth strong, a December hike is a real possibility. US 10-yr yield is around *5%*, which keeps pressure on emerging-market flows. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌏 *ASIA & EUROPE* 🔸 Nikkei: *64,659* 🟢 +1.1% 🔸 Hang Seng: *22,959* 🔴 -0.6% 🔸 Shanghai: *3,651* 🔴 -0.8% 🔸 Kospi: *5,938* 🔴 -1.2% (Samsung disappointed) 🔸 DAX 🟢 +1.3% | CAC 🟢 +1.2% (ECB decision due today) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🛢️ *COMMODITIES* 🔸 Brent: ~*$110–114* 🔴 easing from a 4-year high near $117 🔸 WTI: ~*$101* 🔸 Gold: ~*$4,025/oz* 🔴 -1% (India ~₹1.42–1.44 lakh/10g) 🔸 Silver: ~*$52.6/oz* 🔴 -2.5%, at a 48-week low Crude cooled on hopes of renewed US–Iran talks. Gold and silver are falling because a hawkish Fed and high yields make holding non-yielding metals costlier. Silver has dropped ~13% in a month, so it's in correction mode. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚔️ *GEOPOLITICS – The Big Swing Factor* Washington is trying to restart talks with Iran, but Houthi attacks continue and there is talk of US action after the *3 Nov* US elections. Any escalation means oil goes up, which hurts India (rupee, inflation, oil marketing companies). Real peace talks would be a big tailwind for us. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💰 *FLOWS* FIIs have sold around ₹51,000 Cr in October so far, and DIIs have bought around ₹59,000 Cr. Domestic SIP money is holding up the market. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 *BOTTOM LINE* Today's bounce is welcome, but the big global risks are still there: crude above $100, US yields at 5%, a hawkish Fed and the 3 Nov elections. Expect volatility. A close above *23,175* confirms strength, and *22,370* is the line to watch on the downside. Stick with quality, add in parts, and don't chase rallies. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ _For education and information only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Please consult your advisor before investing._ *Mandarr A Kashikar* *MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together*

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Will this be the time or will it will be the same story again.
Will this be the time or will it will be the same story again.
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📊 Introducing: MAK Value Buy Scanner Friends, value investing isn’t about buying whatever looks cheap. It’s about buying good businesses when they’re on sale. That’s exactly what this new TradingView tool does. 🔹 Checks 11 valuation and quality rules, including P/E against the stock’s own history, Graham Number, FCF yield, ROE, debt and Piotroski 🔹 Calculates a Fair Value and Margin of Safety for every stock 🔹 Filters out value traps and weak balance sheets 🔹 Gives a VALUE BUY signal only when price confirms the turn 🔹 Tracks your buy level and running P&L, based on either your last buy or your average buy Banks and NBFCs are handled automatically with their own set of rules. The idea is simple: patience to wait for the right price, and discipline to wait for the right moment. 🎯 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Mandarr A Kashikar MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together https://in.tradingview.com/script/EJjsCLzx-MAK-Value-Buy-Scanner/
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━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 Introducing MAK Signals MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ MAK Signals is our in-house trading tool, built to catch strong trending moves and stay out of noisy, sideways markets. It only gives a signal when the market shows clear strength in one direction, and every signal comes with a complete trade plan, so there’s no guesswork. 🔹 Clear calls: simple LONG or SHORT tags on the chart 🔹 Ready trade plan: entry, stop loss and target shown instantly 🔹 Smart stop loss: adjusts to each stock’s own price behaviour 🔹 Flexible targets: choose your own risk-reward, 1:1, 1:2 or more 🔹 F&O friendly: suggests an in-the-money CE or PE strike for option buyers 🔹 Live P/L tracking: see running and booked profit at a glance 🔹 Built-in scanner: tracks Nifty, Bank Nifty and top F&O stocks together 🔹 No repainting: signals confirm only on candle close, and never change afterwards 🔹 Disciplined: no repeat signal in the same direction while a trade is still running Best suited for the daily timeframe, for swing trades and positional option buying. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Trading in equities and derivatives carries risk. Please follow your own risk management and consult your financial advisor before trading. Mandarr A Kashikar MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together Link https://in.tradingview.com/script/RrGoS5m8-MAK-SIGNALS/
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MAK Range — Update 🔄 We've added a few powerful features to MAK Range, based on how it's been used over the last few sessions: 🔸 Which side gets hit first: the panel now shows whether the upper or lower zone was touched first today, along with how often each side has come first in recent sessions. It's a quick read on the day's early bias. 🔸 Screener ready: MAK Range now works with TradingView's Pine Screener. Scan your whole watchlist in one go for stocks that are stretched, near a key zone, or already having a trend day. 🔸 New alerts: get notified the moment the first zone of the session is touched. 🔸 Smoother on 1-minute charts: fixed an issue where the indicator could stop loading in the afternoon session on very short timeframes. If you're already using it, please remove it from your chart and add it again so the update takes effect. — MAK Capital | Growing Wealth Together For educational and analytical purposes only. Not a buy/sell recommendation.
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https://in.tradingview.com/script/IAODemIC-MAK-RANGE/
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Introducing MAK Range 📊 Every trader starts the day with the same question: how far can this stock realistically move today? MAK Range answers that before the market opens. It’s our proprietary TradingView tool that maps out the expected price boundaries for the session ahead, so you know where the stretch zones are before price gets there. What you’ll see on the chart 🔸 Upper and lower extremes, the outer boundaries where a move is usually overstretched 🔸 Inner zones, the area where most sessions tend to run out of steam 🔸 A reference line that shows the session’s starting balance point The MAK Range panel The panel on the chart shows every level with its price, how far the stock is from it, and whether it’s already been Hit or is still Open today. It also tracks how much of the expected range has been used so far. Built-in track record This is the part we’re most excited about. For every stock, the panel shows how often each level has actually been reached over recent sessions, how often price stayed inside the extremes, and how often it closed back inside the inner zone. You aren’t trusting a line on a chart. You can see how that stock has respected it. Works on every timeframe Intraday traders get fixed levels for the whole session. Swing and positional traders on daily, weekly or monthly charts get levels projected for that timeframe. How it helps ✅ Avoid chasing stocks that have already stretched too far ✅ Plan targets and stop-losses around realistic boundaries ✅ Spot trend days early, when price keeps breaking through the extremes ✅ Get alerts when price enters the key zones Simple to read, consistent across stocks, and grounded in each stock’s own behaviour. — MAK Capital | Growing Wealth Together This tool is for educational and analytical purposes only and is not a buy/sell recommendation. Past behaviour of levels does not guarantee future results. Please do your own research or consult your advisor before trading. Free to use tool. Just add to your trading view.
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📊 MAK CAPITAL | NIFTY 50 WEEKLY ANALYSIS 📉 Market Structure: Bearish Nifty 50 closed at 22,600, extending its correction. The weekly chart continues to show lower highs and lower lows, indicating that the broader trend remains weak. The recent bounce from support has failed to establish a meaningful reversal. RSI and MACD continue to indicate bearish momentum. 🔍 1️⃣ RSI – 37.34 RSI remains below 50, reflecting weakness. Although the index is approaching oversold territory, this alone does not confirm a market bottom. 📉 2️⃣ MACD – Bearish MACD remains below its signal line and the zero line, indicating that downside momentum continues to dominate. 🛡️ 3️⃣ Crucial Support Levels 🔹 22,248–22,184: Immediate and critical support zone 🔹 21,696: Next support if the current zone breaks 🔹 20,584: Deeper support in case selling intensifies 🚧 4️⃣ Resistance Levels 🔸 23,173: Immediate resistance 🔸 23,894: Major resistance 🔸 24,772: Important recovery level 📈 5️⃣ What Next? ✅ Bullish Scenario: If Nifty holds 22,184–22,248 and reclaims 23,173, a recovery towards 23,400–23,894 becomes possible. ⚠️ Sideways Scenario: If support holds but resistance remains intact, expect continued volatility and range-bound movement. ❌ Bearish Scenario: A decisive weekly close below 22,184 could expose 21,696, followed by the deeper support near 20,584 if selling accelerates. 💡 6️⃣ MAK Capital Strategy ✔️ Avoid aggressive buying just because the market has corrected. ✔️ Watch the crucial support zone for signs of stabilisation. ✔️ Look for a sustained move above 23,173 before turning more constructive. ✔️ Prioritise capital preservation, selective accumulation and disciplined position sizing. My View: The weekly trend remains bearish, and a durable market bottom is yet to be confirmed. The 22,184–22,248 zone is crucial. A hold may trigger a relief rally, while a decisive breakdown could invite further selling. In uncertain markets, patience is an advantage. Protect capital first; pursue opportunities when confirmation emerges. — MAK Capital Growing Wealth Together Disclaimer: Technical analysis is indicative and cannot guarantee future market direction. This message is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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विजयादशमी च्या हार्दिक शुभेच्छा
विजयादशमी च्या हार्दिक शुभेच्छा
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🇮🇳 NIFTY 50 — MULTI-CHART ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS 📅 17 October 2026 | 📍 23,146.15 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌊 4 CHARTS, 1 CONCLUSION Looked at this correction across 4 different charts — 3 daily counts + 1 quarterly Supercycle view — and they all converge on the same support zone, even though they read the degree differently: 📍 Chart 1: Top = Cycle Wave (1), fall = impulsive decline → targets 22,440 → 21,000 → 20,695 📍 Chart 2: Top = Cycle Wave (1), fall = corrective W-X-Y → bottoming near 22,000 📍 Chart 3: Top = Wave 3, fall = Wave 4 correction (W-X-Y) → bottoming near 22,000 📍 Chart 4 (Quarterly, since 1994): Confirms we're in Supercycle Wave IV, inside the larger Wave V bull move → fib support at 22,039 (38.2%) and 20,730 (50%) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚨 LINE IN THE SAND ➡️ 20,700–22,440 — consensus support zone across ALL 4 charts ❌ Break below 20,700 = needs fresh structural review ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 KEY LEVELS 🔴 Support Zone: 22,000–22,440 🔴 Deeper Support: 20,730–21,763 🟢 Confirmation: Close above 24,000–24,200 🚀 Long-Term Target: Fresh ATH (Wave V continuation, per quarterly chart) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 SCENARIOS ✅ Wave 4 Bullish (55%) — Correction completes in 20,700–22,440 zone → Wave 5 resumes toward fresh highs; quarterly chart strongly supports this 🟡 Extended Correction (30%) — A larger-degree (Cycle Wave 2) correction takes a bit longer, testing the lower end of the same zone before basing ⚠️ Caution (15%) — Break below 20,700 would challenge all 4 counts together ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 BOTTOM LINE Whether you label this Wave 4 or a Cycle-degree Wave 2, all 4 charts — daily and quarterly — point to the same 20,700–22,440 zone for completion. The 32-year quarterly chart is the real anchor here: it shows this fall fitting neatly inside a decades-long Wave V advance. Patience at these levels should be rewarded over the coming quarters. 🙏 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Consult your SEBI-registered advisor before investing. Mandarr A Kashikar 📊 MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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Nifty multi charts+3
Nifty multi charts
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📊 MAK CAPITAL | NIFTY 50 WEEKLY OUTLOOK 📉 Market Structure: Bearish, with a relief bounce Nifty has rebounded from a crucial support zone of 22,184–22,248 after a sharp correction. While this recovery is encouraging, the broader weekly trend remains weak. A sustained reversal is yet to be confirmed. 🔍 1️⃣ Key Resistance Levels 🔸 23,173 – Immediate resistance 🔸 23,894 – Major resistance 🔸 24,772 – Important trend reversal zone 🛡️ 2️⃣ Key Support Levels 🔹 22,248–22,184 – Crucial support zone 🔹 21,696 – Next support if the zone breaks 🔹 20,584 – Deeper support in case selling intensifies 📈 3️⃣ What to Expect Next? ✅ Bullish Scenario: A sustained move above 23,173 could open the way towards 23,400–23,894. Crossing these levels would strengthen the recovery. ⚠️ Sideways Scenario: Failure to cross 23,173 may keep Nifty volatile within a broad range, with support near 22,184–22,248. ❌ Bearish Scenario: A decisive weekly close below 22,184 could expose 21,696, followed by the deeper support near 20,584. 💡 4️⃣ MAK Capital Strategy The recent bounce is encouraging, but declaring a market bottom now would be premature. ✔️ Avoid aggressive buying below resistance. ✔️ Look for sustained strength above 23,173. ✔️ Keep a close watch on the 22,184–22,248 support zone. ✔️ Focus on risk management, selective accumulation and disciplined position sizing. My View: The market is attempting to stabilise, but the next move around 23,173 will be crucial. A breakout could improve sentiment, while rejection may trigger renewed volatility. Patience is a strategy. Discipline is an edge. — MAK Capital Growing Wealth Together Disclaimer: This is a technical market view for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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*MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together* 📊 *JIO PLATFORMS vs BHARTI AIRTEL* Fundamental Face-Off | 17 Oct 2026 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚀 *Why Now?* Jio's IPO, India's largest ever, opens *21–23 Oct* at a price band of *₹1,065–₹1,119*. Listing is expected on *28 Oct*. Here's how it stacks up against the listed rival, Airtel (~₹1,850). ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💰 *Revenue (FY26)* 🔹 Jio: *₹1,46,885 Cr* (+14.6%) 🔹 Airtel: *₹2,10,973 Cr* (+22%) Airtel's growth includes Africa. India-only growth is similar for both. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 *Net Profit (FY26)* 🔹 Jio: *₹30,049 Cr* (+15.1%) 🔹 Airtel: *₹26,695 Cr* Latest quarter (Q1 FY27): Jio +9.2% vs Airtel *+37%* 🔥 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧮 *EPS (FY26)* 🔹 Jio: *₹33.63* 🔹 Airtel: *₹45.96* ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💵 *Cash Flows* 🔹 Airtel: free cash flow of about *₹77,000 Cr*, a proven cash machine 🔹 Jio: capex down 23%, and EBITDA minus capex more than doubled to *₹42,071 Cr* Jio's cash story is improving fast, and IPO money goes toward cutting debt. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚖️ *Valuation (P/E)* 🔹 Jio: *~33x* (at upper band) 🔹 Airtel: *~41x* Jio looks cheaper, but its return on equity is *9.4%* vs Airtel's *20.3%*. Lower returns, lower multiple. On EV/EBITDA, Jio is actually priced slightly *higher*. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📱 *ARPU* 🔹 Jio: *₹215.6* 🔹 Airtel: *₹264* Airtel earns more from every customer. Jio has the bigger base (533 Mn+) waiting to be monetised. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 *Bottom Line* Airtel = *proven quality*: higher ARPU, ROE and cash flow, at a premium price. Jio = *the turnaround in returns*: falling capex, debt cut and tariff hikes could close the gap. Patience required. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ _This is an educational comparison, not a buy, sell or IPO subscription recommendation. Please consult your financial advisor before investing._ *Mandarr A Kashikar* MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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What if India’s worst relative underperformance in 30 years becomes the starting point of its next decade of outperformance? 👀   In investing, extreme weakness can create extraordinary opportunities—but only if the trend eventually turns.   Don’t predict the bottom. Watch relative strength, follow momentum, and let price confirm the opportunity.   *The biggest opportunities often emerge when the crowd has lost patience.* 📈
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🇮🇳 NIFTY 50 — ELLIOTT WAVE UPDATE 📅 15 October 2026 | 📍 22,997.35 (+1.66%) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🌊 WHERE ARE WE? After nine weeks of grinding decline near the March 2026 lows, Nifty just posted a strong +1.66% rally — a solid signal that the Wave ④ correction may finally be stabilising. Wave ③ topped on 27 Sept 2024 (~26,277), and this extended, choppy Wave ④ has now lasted well over a year — classic alternation behaviour vs. the sharper Wave ② of 2022. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🚨 LINE IN THE SAND ➡️ 21,600 — must hold for Wave ④ to stay valid ❌ Break below 19,100–20,000 = count needs reassessment ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 KEY LEVELS 🟡 Shelf defended: 21,600–22,700 🟢 Confirmation: Sustained close above 23,000–24,200 📈 Wave ⑤ Target 1: 26,277 (old Wave ③ high) 🚀 Wave ⑤ Target 2: 27,000–28,000+ ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📊 SCENARIOS ✅ Wave ④ Basing (65%) — Today's sharp bounce off the shelf supports a bottoming process → base firms up → Wave ⑤ launches toward 27,000–28,000+ 🟡 Relief Rally Only (20%) — Analysts flag this as a possible "relief rally" rather than trend reversal — needs follow-through above 23,000 to confirm ⚠️ Reassessment Needed (15%) — A fresh breakdown below 21,600–19,100 would challenge the Wave ④ count ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 BOTTOM LINE Today's +1.66% rally off the March shelf is an encouraging first sign that Wave ④ may be nearing completion. Follow-through above 23,000–24,200 in the coming sessions will be key to confirming the base. As long as 21,600 holds, Wave ⑤ toward fresh highs remains the structural destination. 🙏 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Consult your SEBI-registered advisor before investing. Mandarr A Kashikar 📊 MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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MAK Trend Super : Algo-Ready Strategy 🚀 Introducing our proprietary intraday strategy for Nifty index options, built to trad+1
MAK Trend Super : Algo-Ready Strategy 🚀 Introducing our proprietary intraday strategy for Nifty index options, built to trade automatically. ✅ Clear buy/sell signals. ✅ Auto order placement, no screen-watching ✅ Auto square-off at 3:00 PM, no overnight positions 💡 Free to use if you have an Angel One account opened through us. No Angel One account yet ? Message us and we'll help you open one. Options trading involves risk. This is not investment advice. Trade only with a quantity you are comfortable with. Requirement : 1. Trading View live data. 2. Algo platform. Regds Mandarr A Kashikar Attached are today's trades.
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📊 MAK Capital – Market Insight 15 October 2026 Dear Investors, Many of you have been calling and messaging me this week, asking the same thing: "Sir, what is happening in the market?" So let me explain it simply, the way I'd explain it over a cup of chai. 🛢️ It all starts with oil The tension around the Strait of Hormuz has squeezed global oil supply. Brent crude is sitting near $108, about $46 higher than a year ago. When oil gets expensive, everything from petrol to transport to factory costs goes up. 🌍 The world is worried about inflation America's inflation came in hotter than expected at 3.7%. Now there's talk the Fed may raise rates again this month. Higher rates make markets nervous, and that nervousness spreads everywhere. 🥇 Gold has slipped, even during Navratri I know this surprises many people. But when interest rates are expected to rise, gold usually takes a breather. Gold is a long-term protector, not a short-term trade. 🇮🇳 India is stronger than the headlines suggest Yes, costly oil hurts us. But the IMF has just raised India's growth forecast to 7%. That's why every dip is finding buyers. 🕊️ Watch for peace news Talks between the US and Iran are on. Any real breakthrough could bring oil down and lift markets quickly. ✅ My honest suggestion Keep your SIPs running. Stay with quality. Invest in stages. Avoid leverage and tips. I've been through many storms since 1997, and each one passed. This one will too. 🙏 — Mandarr A Kashikar MAK Capital | Growing Wealth Together For education only, not investment advice.
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Kal ka loss aaj recover, kal phir loss, next day phir recovery!!! 😭 YE KAUNSE CHAKRAVYUH MEIN FAS GAYE HAI HUM MADHAVVVV!!! 🙏💀
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📊 *MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together* *Volatility Desk* | 14 Oct 2026 (EOD) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔸 *Market Snapshot* ▪️ Nifty 50: *22,622.70* 🔴 −0.44% ▪️ India VIX: *14.64* 🔴 +3.4% ▪️ Crude near $107 on Middle East tensions ▪️ FII selling continues; IT held up, pharma & financials dragged ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ✅ *Yesterday's Range Check* ▪️ Normal: 22,493 – 22,953 ▪️ Actual close: 22,623 → *Inside normal range* ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 *Model Scorecard* ▪️ Last 6 sessions: Normal held *3/6*, Extended held *5/6* ▪️ 1-year record: Normal *~74%*, Extended *~94%* ▪️ A volatile week; the wider range has done its job ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧮 *Volatility Forecast* ▪️ Tomorrow's expected move: *0.97%* (≈ 219 pts) ▪️ Vol regime: 🔴 *Hot*, 1.15× its long-run average ▪️ Calmer day today, volatility easing slightly ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 *Range for 15 Oct (Thu)* 🟢 Normal range: *22,405 – 22,843* 🟡 Extended range: *22,189 – 23,065* 📍 Pivot: 22,623 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚖️ *Model vs VIX* ▪️ VIX implied move: 0.92% (≈ 209 pts) ▪️ Close to model → options fairly priced ▪️ Slight tilt to buyers; no strong edge either way ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ *Event Alert* ▪️ Crude near $107 after Saudi Aramco attack: key risk ▪️ Q2 results continue; FII flows in focus ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 *Bottom Line* Nifty is stuck between 22,180 (2026 low) and 22,800 (last week's rejection). Expect a close within *22,405–22,843*. A close above *22,843* clears 22,800 resistance; below *22,405* puts 22,180 back in play. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ _Statistical range for education only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with strict stop-loss._ *Mandarr A Kashikar* MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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📊 *MAK CAPITAL — Growing Wealth Together* *Volatility Desk* | 13 Oct 2026 (EOD) ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🔸 *Market Snapshot* ▪️ Nifty 50: *22,721.95* 🟢 +1.60% ▪️ India VIX: *14.04* 🟢 −7.41% ▪️ IT index +5.2% on HCL Tech beat ▪️ FM's comments on LTCG/STT lifted sentiment ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ *Yesterday's Range Check* ▪️ Normal: 22,156 – 22,572 ▪️ Extended: 21,951 – 22,783 ▪️ Actual close: 22,722 → *Above normal, inside extended* ▪️ Strong up-move, but still within the model's wider range ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 📈 *Model Track Record (1 Year)* ▪️ Normal range held: *~74%* of days ▪️ Extended range held: *~94%* of days ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🧮 *Volatility Forecast* ▪️ Tomorrow's expected move: *1.01%* (≈ 230 pts) ▪️ Vol regime: 🔴 *Hot*, 1.2× its long-run average ▪️ Big swings both ways (−1.65%, +1.3%, −0.7%, +1.6%) keep volatility elevated ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 🎯 *Range for 14 Oct (Wed)* 🟢 Normal range: *22,493 – 22,954* 🟡 Extended range: *22,266 – 23,187* 📍 Pivot: 22,722 ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚖️ *Model vs VIX* ▪️ VIX implied move: 0.88% (≈ 201 pts) ▪️ VIX below model → options look *cheap* ▪️ Edge to option buyers, not sellers ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ ⚠️ *Event Alert* ▪️ Q2 earnings season in full swing; IT leadership in focus ▪️ Crude still elevated, a key risk to the rally ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ 💡 *Bottom Line* 22,800 is the hurdle that rejected Nifty last week. A close above it opens the upper half of the range; a slip below *22,493* means today's bounce is fading. Choppy, two-way market. Respect stop-losses. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━ _Statistical range for education only. Not a buy/sell recommendation. Trade with strict stop-loss._ *Mandarr A Kashikar* MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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