Demographics Now and Then

Mexico’s fertility rate has fallen to just 1.2. That is close to that of Japan, Italy, and Spain. In Mexico City the TFR is just 0.80 which is lower than that of South Korea this year. Mexico may be on a Russia in the 1990s and early 2000s demographic trajectory. If so expect the country to develop a labor market which draws in millions more from Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Nicaragua, hollowing out these countries.

The demographic transition of Bolivia (one of last countries in Latam to fall below replacement) was astonishingly rapid. Before COVID they were way above replacement(2.6+)even being above 3.0 TFR as recently as 2012. To be at 1.56 today (lower than the USA!) is remarkable. Of course Bolivia is far from alone in this recent plunge. Guatemala, Paraguay, & Honduras are now all well below replacement as well. To be honest even the last holdout Nicaragua is probably below replacement in 2026… Was in Bolivia just a few years ago. It absolutely felt like a country undergoing a dramatic demographic transition. Especially in the big cities like Santa Cruz de la Sierra. https://x.com/jesusferna7026/status/2100571020943818901

Costa Rica reaching demographic point of no return. Births are just above half of their highs in the 1980s. Currently the country has a TFR of just 1.12, the same level as Spain and Japan.

Costa Rica reaching demographic point of no return. Births are just above half of their highs in the 1980s. Currently the country has a TFR of just 1.12, the same level as Spain and Japan.

Cases of Fiji, Latvia, Kazakhstan, Estonia, Malaysia, Kyrgyzstan clearly show that even catastrophic levels of ethnic replacement are reversible. Kyrgyzstan dropped to only 40% Kyrgyz in 1959 & is over 77% today. Kazakhstan similar turnaround. History shows us it’s never over. https://x.com/cornu__copia/status/2099782859884036582

Ho Chi Minh City/Saigon has long been the low TFR drag of Vietnam. Even when Vietnam had a TFR of 2.0+ they were around 1.4. It’s simply amazing Vietnam kept its TFR so healthy for so long. Still being above 1.9 in 2025 was remarkable. https://x.com/andyd10/status/2098368354054525258

Sardinia really is the Canary Islands of Italy fertility rate wise. Below 1.0 since 2020. Almost as bad as the Canaries which have been below 0.90 since 2021 & are the fertility anchor/drag of Spain as Sardinia is for Italy.. The Canary Islands themselves have a population pyramid similar to South Korea or Taiwan…

Indeed increasing childlessness is the critical factor in plummeting fertility. However, reversing it is the most difficult. Governments have had much more success getting those w/kids to have more. I’m not suprised at all that in some countries mothers having more kids even as childlessness increases. https://x.com/devonzuegel/status/2055702296013500903

So Houthi controlled Yemen has around 25,000,000 people(best guess), TFR btwn 3.8-4.3, & more births than Japan or Germany at ~750,000 a year. It also has a median age of 19 (compare that to ~42 in Ukraine or Russia). Infant mortality rate of 34 per 1,000 births terrible though.

Former Democratic Republic of Germany (DDR aka East Germany) saw its fertility rate fall to below 1.0 for half of the 1990s. Their last comeback cohort (born from 1977-1987) moved to the Western parts of Germany in massive numbers from the 1990s-2010s hollowing out the East.

🇺🇸 📉 🍼Demographic data on births and fertility over the last several years makes clear that Non Hispanic Black fertility is cratering to historic levels in the United States. In fact, Black Americans may have the lowest fertility rate of any major group in the U.S. by 2030 (including Asians). There is no indication of a Black American fertility floor and the fact that up to 50% of Black American women may remain childless based on current data for women aged 18-44 makes a TFR of ~1.0 a likely future level. That is almost as low as China.

India puts their population at 1,479,239,020 as of September 4th 2026.

For any chance of long term demographic semi stabilization Russia obviously needs to nourish its comeback cohort to prevent emigration. They’re RU's only real shot at getting births back to 1,500,000 annually from today’s levels of sub 1,200,000.  But this is highly uncertain.

By 2060, the global population will feature nearly three times as many seniors as young children. The demographic cross already happened in 2023,making the trajectory almost locked in for many countries. The situation to be far more dire in Italy, South Korea, Chile, Poland etc.

By 2030 the United States, Canada, & Chile are all likely to join the natural decline club. Seeing more births than deaths annually. The Americas roared into this demographic transition of late. Colombia, Argentina, Brazil & many others may see similar decline by 2040.

Even taking into account the massive fall in Mormon fertility of late, Children per Mother level in Utah surprised me. North Dakota, South Dakota, & Iowa higher (& Nebraska level with Utah). Genuinely stunned. Also Utah homes are amongst the largest in the United States but home prices are above the national median. That being said 60% of Utahns are Mormons & the massive cultural change in that community is likely a primary driver of both the State’s plummeting fertility and CPM. https://x.com/birthgauge/status/2094503511153054188?s=46

Since 2024, average housing unit size in Canada has fallen to 719 square feet & 81% of new builds are apartments.  This does not bode well for family formation & size does matter. This is the problem with an economy that builds units for institutional investors not for families. We don't have to guess how this dynamic ends because we can look directly at 1-2 bedroom apartment dense Taiwan & South Korea. Also,data published by IFS shows women living in 1-2 bedroom apartments average TFR of ~1.20-1.35 matching ultra-low levels seen in Canada itself today.

Was interesting to hear some of the protesters in Albania’s Flamingo Movement holding up signs saying “we want our children back”as protest against mass emigration stemming from the failure of their government & economy to provide jobs. Mass emigration as destructive as low TFR. We have seen it in Romania, Bulgaria, Moldova, Latvia, Armenia, Lithuania etc. In most of these countries the combination of high emigration & low TFR destroyed the demographic structure and led to rapid population decline.

🇻🇳 🇮🇩 👶 ☀️ Both Vietnam & Indonesia to be enormously consequential in Asia in decades to come. Both holding TFR above 1.8 level & while Indonesia is likely to crash first if they hold above 1.5 until 2040(a huge ask)they’ll be in far better demographic+economic shape than almost all peers.

Guatemala, El Salvador, & Honduras (& likely now Nicaragua too) are all below replacement fertility yet are still significant migration sending countries to both the US & sub 1.5 TFR Mexico. They seem destined to demographically hollow out faster than Eastern Europe did.