اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
Alphractal - Crypto Research
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پستهای کانال
Bitcoin’s Gini Coefficient measures the level of supply concentration across wallets.
When it rises, it means BTC is becoming more concentrated in large addresses, such as whales, custodians, ETFs, or exchanges.
When it falls, it means the supply is becoming more distributed across different market participants.
The interesting point is that the Gini Coefficient has stopped rising since October 2025, when Bitcoin was reaching its all-time high.
In other words, since that top, the coefficient has stopped moving higher.
Gini rising = higher concentration.
Gini falling = higher distribution.
A simple metric to track how Bitcoin’s supply is moving across cycles.
Alphractal.com
| 2 |  Bitcoin’s Long/Short Ratio is rising, while altcoins have not changed much.
BTC is currently at 1.9, based on the average across several exchanges, while 230+ altcoins are averaging 1.65, with a slight decline over the last 24 hours.
In other words, even though traders are currently showing more interest in long positions across the market, that interest is stronger in Bitcoin.
However, when long interest increases too much, price often moves lower to liquidate those traders, and that is exactly what we have seen over the past few weeks.
As long as long interest remains elevated, the most likely scenario is sideways price action or further downside.
But the downside risk appears higher for BTC than for altcoins, since altcoins are showing lower Long/Short Ratio levels.
Track this more closely and ask Alpha AI how your favorite crypto is positioned across derivatives, on-chain data, and sentiment.
The insights can be fascinating.
See more at Alphractal.com | 199 |
| 3 | Would you use trading directly within Alphractal using automated strategies, alerts, and signal-based execution powered by Alphractal data? | 271 |
| 4 |  Introducing WORKBENCH🚀
The most flexible charting experience ever built on Alphractal.
Create fully custom charts from any combination of metrics and assets, style them your way, save them to your account, add them to dashboards, and even chat with Alphractal about your analysis.
• Build from any metric
• Line, Area, Scatter, Bubble, Heatmap & Gradient charts
• Advanced styling and metric parameters
• Cloud-saved and synced across devices
• Add custom charts directly to your dashboards
• AI-powered chart analysis built into Workbench
No limitations. No predefined templates. Just your data, your charts, and your edge.
Try now: Alphractal.com | 276 |
| 5 |  We just used Alphractal's new Workbench feature to overlay three custom metrics on Zcash. The structural shift the chart exposes is one of the cleanest patterns we've come across recently.
Quick background on Workbench: it's a new tool that lets you combine any of our metrics, draw your own annotations, and write custom formulas across multiple indicators on a single chart. First tool we've shipped that goes beyond pre-built dashboards.
What we plotted on ZEC:
— SER (Supply Equality Ratio): the ratio of supply held by the smallest network participants (less than 1/10,000,000 of total supply) versus the supply controlled by the top 1% of addresses. Higher readings mean smaller holders are gaining ground relative to the largest cohort.
— NDF (Network Distribution Factor): the share of supply held by addresses controlling at least 1/10,000 of the current supply. Effectively a whale concentration gauge.
— Supply New: the net amount of newly issued supply added to circulation over the interval, before adjustments for burns or long-term dormancy.
The pattern between roughly Q3 2025 and now:
— SER moved from ~0.10 to a current reading of 0.47. The small-holder cohort multiplied its share of supply relative to the top 1%.
— NDF dropped from ~0.73 to 0.57 in the same window. Whale concentration declined by ~22% in a matter of months.
— Supply New continued growing along trend, so the redistribution isn't the result of total supply changes. It's structural — coins moved from large holders to smaller ones.
— ZEC price ran from approximately $30 to above $800, with the rally accelerating exactly as the SER/NDF crossover formed.
The curious part: most assets concentrate supply during major rallies. Whales accumulate, retail enters near the top, distribution worsens. Zcash did the opposite — the supply structure decentralized as price ran.
Whether that reflects a coordinated unwinding by early holders, a structural broadening of the holder base, or something else, depends on the underlying network analysis. What's observable from the chart is the timing: the structural shift preceded the rally rather than followed it.
The full chart we built is shareable through Workbench. We'll be publishing more examples over the next few weeks.
Try Workbench: app.alphractal.com | 469 |
| 6 | We spent the last 90 days tracking the BTC/ETH cohort divergence. Most desks aren't looking at it. Here's the full breakdown.
The surface picture
June opened with synchronized risk-off: BTC down to $66,346 yesterday on $1.35B in long liquidations. ETH spot ETFs logged $401M in May outflows, BlackRock's ETHA leading the bleed at $80M single-day. IBIT pulled $448M in a single session. Eleven consecutive days of net spot ETF outflows on BTC. Reads bearish across the board.
Then you split the cohorts and the picture cracks open.
The friction nobody's pricing
BTC Long-Term Holder supply just hit a fresh all-time high: 16.44M BTC. 82% of circulating supply locked in wallets older than 155 days. The LTH cohort broke a 2.5-year downtrend in absolute holdings and pivoted to accumulation while spot bled 45% from the October ATH. Our Holder Sentiment metric on BTC has been pinned at buy-side conviction since May 14.
Meanwhile on ETH: Smart Money Flow Index (the only chain where this on-chain construction works, because of contract-level wallet tagging) printed a −32% delta over the same 30-day window. Exchange Flux Balance flipped positive — inflows beating outflows for the first time since February. The institutional-shaped wallets on ETH are doing the opposite of BTC LTHs. They're distributing.
BTC LTHs accumulating to record. ETH smart money distributing. ETF outflows on both, but the on-chain cohort behavior is inverted.
What that actually means
The market is mispricing this divergence. ETF flows reflect the marginal allocator — the rate-sensitive macro fund, the model-driven asset manager. They sell both BTC and ETH together because their gross exposure caps moved with DXY at 99 and the December hike now 60% priced.
The on-chain holders don't move with rate signals. They move with conviction. BTC conviction is at an ATH while ETH is bleeding from its core base.
The pair to watch isn't BTC/USD. It's ETHBTC. We're calling for ETHBTC to break the May low (0.018) inside the next 21 days, and we're tracking 7 specific wallet clusters for confirmation.
The takeaway
When LTH cohorts diverge across chains, the chain that's accumulating wins the next leg. ETF flows are noise. Cohort behavior is signal.
Full cohort dashboard → https://alphractal.com/?utm_source=telegram | 69 |
| 7 |  Most of crypto Twitter is calling for $50K BTC. The Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index just printed the rarest macro signal of the last decade. Here's what almost nobody is reading.
ADCI is a Wyckoffian macro compass for BTC. Scale 0 to 100. Three zones:
Distribution, 70 to 100: cycle tops, insider exit during euphoria.
Markup/Markdown, 30 to 70: trend in motion.
Accumulation, 0 to 30: smart money absorption during disbelief. Cycle bottoms.
Where is ADCI today? Crashing through the lower 20s, the Wyckoff accumulation pole.
The exact zone that printed at the 2018 cycle low, before the next leg of +250%; the March 2020 COVID flush, before the next leg of +650%; and the late 2022 post-FTX bottom, before the next leg of +400%.
Three prior reads at this level. Three multi-year bull legs that followed within 8 months. Small sample, but the hit rate is 3 for 3.
The crowd reads “BTC down 4.6% overnight, ETFs bleeding, fear extreme” as confirmation of more downside.
We read it as the textbook accumulation signature: supply being absorbed by smart money at the exact moment retail conviction breaks.
Price is the noise. ADCI is the signal.
We are not calling the absolute bottom tick. We are calling the macro accumulation regime. That is the only call that has actually mattered across four BTC cycles.
Live BTC ADCI chart:
http://app.alphractal.com | 504 |
| 8 |  +1Bitcoin Holders in Profit Overview
Short-Term Holders (STH): 28% are still in profit
Long-Term Holders (LTH): 64% are still in profit
The market has been showing weakness for some time, and historically, major cycle bottoms tend to happen when both STH and LTH are under heavy unrealized losses.
Set alerts now on the most important key levels and get notified when this happens.
Alphractal.com | 377 |
| 9 |  Strategy sold BTC.
But this is not the first time.
In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC for tax-loss harvesting and bought back 810 BTC just a few days later. In practice, it was a tax strategy, not a real exit from Bitcoin.
Today, June 1, Strategy sold only 32 BTC, around $2.5M. That represents approximately 0.004% of its total holdings, with 843,706 BTC still remaining.
The key question is not the size of this sale.
The key question is whether this was just a small operational move, or the first sign that the famous “never sell” narrative is starting to change.
Alphractal.com | 446 |
| 10 |  Across the Top 250 cryptos, whales continue to position against retail behavior.
The Whale vs Retail Delta is negative for both Bitcoin and altcoins, indicating that whales are either favoring short positions or simply closing their longs.
Meanwhile, retail traders continue to insist on longs.
See what few others are seeing and gain an edge in the crypto market!
Alphractal.com | 362 |
| 11 |  Our Repetition Fractal Cycle marks the next bottom between Oct 6-16, 2026. We're ~4-5 months from that window. The real question: does the fractal still hold?
Where we are today, against the script:
- Cycle top called: Oct 12-16, 2025. Hit inside the window.
- Current phase: Distribution → Bear Market. We've been chopping $73-77k for 3 weeks. Checks out.
- F&G: 25, Extreme Fear. Textbook late-distribution print.
- BTC dominance: 60.66% after breaking 8 months of accumulation. Matches pre-bottom historicals.
- Altcoin Season Index: 37. Deep Bitcoin season. Alts already bleeding.
See the fractal live → app.alphractal.com | 768 |
| 12 | We've been tracking the STH/LTH Market Signal since 2019. It's printed a Bear End signal twice before. Both times it nailed the bottom within weeks.
Here's what it's showing right now.
BTC at $76,848. The STH Realized Price sits at $78,100 — meaning the average short-term holder is underwater. The LTH Realized Price is at $48,019 — meaning long-term holders are sitting on 60%+ unrealized gains and not selling.
This is the exact divergence that appeared in late 2019 and early 2023. Short-term pain, long-term conviction. Both times the signal flagged Bear End followed by Bull Start within the same quarter. Both times BTC rallied 150%+ over the next 12 months.
Price below STH Realized Price with LTH Realized Price holding as structural support has a 2-for-2 track record as the single most reliable cycle bottom signal we've measured.
We're sitting in that zone for the third time in Bitcoin's history.
Full STH/LTH Market Signal → app.alphractal.com | 374 |
| 13 | We pulled up Chainlink's Liquidation Levels and the positioning is wild.
LINK sitting at $9.43. Shorts make up 54% of open positions — $800M stacked above current price. Three massive liquidation clusters at $10.90, $11.29 and $11.48. Each one is a cascade trigger.
On the other side, long liquidation support sits at $9.01 and $8.44. Thin cushion below, loaded spring above.
We've mapped this exact setup dozens of times across altcoins. When shorts stack this aggressively above price with thin downside liquidity, the resolution is almost always violent. One catalyst — an ETF headline, a BTC bounce past $78K, even a whale market buy — and $800M in shorts starts unwinding into itself.
The market isn't always right about direction. But the liquidation map never lies about where the fuel is sitting.
Live Liquidation Levels → app.alphractal.com/ | 338 |
| 14 |  We built an alert system for our Alpha Quant signals. Here's why it matters.
ICP flashed a Long on the 30m timeframe. Price ripped from $2.60 to $3.10 — 19% move. Most traders found out about it hours later scrolling through charts. The ones with alerts set caught it live.
We tracked how many Alpha Quant entries get missed simply because no one is watching at 3am. The answer was over 60% of them.
So we shipped alerts. Set it once, get notified the second a signal fires. No more missed entries on assets you're already watching.
This is the kind of edge that compounds over time. Not a fancy indicator — just being there when the signal hits.
Set your alerts → app.alphractal.com/screeners/signals | 299 |
| 15 |  Alphractal Terminal Upgrade — May 2026 ⚡️
We have just deployed a major terminal release, reshaping how you track liquidity, screen the market, and run real-time technical triggers.
Here is a quick look at the core upgrades now live:
• Screener Chat (Contextual AI): Real-time AI sits directly inside your screening workspace, fully capturing active screen coordinates, filters, and applied parameters.
• Alerting on Proprietary Signals: Take alerts beyond price. Set rapid triggers on Alpha Quant, ATR-VWMA, PTO, Buy/Sell Pressure, Risk, and Altseason.
• Scan Alerts (Horizontal Market Screens): Set a single complex setup condition and monitor the entire market live. Once any token meets your criteria, you get notified instantly.
• Sectoral Alerts in Crypto-Index: Monitor structural shifts at the index level. Spot overbought, oversold, or volume anomalies across Layer-1, AI, RWA, DeFi, and Memes.
• Omnipresent Chat Tools: Pull core metrics and system charts seamlessly into both General and Asset Summary chats.
• Upgraded Screener UX: Enhanced table performance, category groups, smart presets, and high-frequency auto-refresh speeded to 10 seconds.
Read the fully detailed structural breakdown, technical logs, and see the full feature images in our X update thread below:
https://x.com/Alphractal/status/2059575098546549045 | 426 |
| 16 | We built Alpha AI to answer one question: what's the real structural picture right now?
You ask about any asset. In seconds, it synthesizes 15+ real-time metrics — on-chain, derivatives, exchange flows, technicals — into a single actionable read with exact levels and scenarios.
Here's a live BTC query from today:
→ Price at $77,476, below True Market Mean Price ($78,521)
→ SOPR at 1.000 — market at exact break-even equilibrium
→ Whale vs Retail Delta at -0.2120, improving from -0.3706 last week
→ Exchange net outflow of $14M after -$163.7M seven days ago
→ OI at $44.44B, deleveraging (-0.90% in 24h)
→ Market Temperature cooled to 86.40 from 97.12
→ Key range: $76,700-$78,500 with bull and bear scenarios
One query. Full structural read. Support, resistance, and invalidation levels — not vibes, not guesses.
No more tab-switching between 8 dashboards. We built the synthesis layer so you don't have to.
Try Alpha AI → app.alphractal.com | 349 |
| 17 |  The Crypto Fear & Greed Index reads 28. Retail is panicking. Meanwhile, our Whale vs Retail Delta just printed its highest positive divergence since November 2024.
Here's what we're actually seeing:
Strategy added 24,869 BTC ($2.01B) last week at $80,985 average. A dormant 2013 whale moved 500 BTC for the first time in 12 years. On-chain cohort data shows addresses holding 1,000+ BTC accumulated 47,000 BTC in the past 14 days alone.
Our Holder Sentiment metric — which weights conviction by holding duration — is at 0.82. Last time it hit 0.80+ during a Fear reading below 30 was March 2024. BTC rallied 67% in the following 90 days.
The crowd is selling the SEC's "innovation exemption" delay. Smart money is buying the dip because they know the CLARITY Act has 75% pass probability on Polymarket and ETF outflows are mechanical rebalancing, not fundamental rejection.
Fear at 28 with whale accumulation at 13-year highs isn't a warning. It's a setup.
https://alphractal.com/?utm_source=telegram | 408 |
| 18 | https://x.com/Alphractal/status/2057828509775745155 | 367 |
| 19 | 🚀 Next Alphractal update — dropping next week
Hey everyone, the next release focuses on the Screener, and it comes with two key additions:
1. Customizable alerts on every metric
You'll now be able to set up alerts on any metric available in the Screener. A few examples:
→ "Notify me when there's a BUY on Alpha Signals"
→ "Monitor all assets and alert me hourly on volume spikes, high leverage, or liquidation cascades"
→ And much more — the flexibility is significant.
2. ALPHA AI integrated with the Screener
Our ALPHA AI now understands and generates insights from Screener data — contextual analysis built on top of the metrics you're already tracking.
Thanks for the trust 🙏
Your feedback was essential in validating our roadmap. More updates coming soon. | 537 |
| 20 |  Most desks called ETH dead this week below $2.3k. Our ETH Whale vs Retail Delta says they're trading the wrong cohort.
ETH W-R Delta turned net positive 13 sessions ago and hasn't broken. Whales (1k-10k ETH cohort) added +218k ETH over the last 30 days — the largest monthly accumulation since November. Retail W-R is net negative -47k. Pure transfer of supply from weak hands to strong hands.
Stack the rest:
• ETH ETFs broke a 5-month outflow streak in April with +$356M. May 1 alone +$101M (ETHA $43M, FETH $49M).
• Our ETH-exclusive Smart Money Flow Index flipped positive 11 days ago. The last 3 flips: +18%, +24%, +31% in 30d.
• Funding rate flat at +0.003% per 8h. No leverage stacked under the bid.
When whales accumulate, ETFs absorb, and Smart Money Flow flips — all while sentiment sits at its weakest of the cycle — that's not "ETH is dead." That's the textbook reload before a repricing.
Consensus reads price. We read the cohorts. Right now the cohorts are loaded.
Live chart → app.alphractal.com | 433 |
