Alphractal - Crypto Research

Today's sell-off is simply a mass liquidation event! News and narratives are flying in every direction, but the reality is that the crypto market is heavily leveraged. Cut through the noise with data. Access the best crypto analytics tools now at Alphractal.com.

🚨 NOVEMBER 3 IS APPROACHING! WILL BITCOIN CRASH AGAIN? There is a fascinating historical pattern surrounding the United States midterm elections that deserves investors' attention! During the last three midterm election cycles, Bitcoin experienced bear markets and reached significant cycle bottoms shortly after the elections. • 2014 (November 4): Bitcoin was already experiencing a prolonged bear market. Selling pressure continued after the elections, and BTC eventually reached its cycle bottom in January 2015. • 2018 (November 6): Bitcoin was trading near $6,400. After a period of relative stability, BTC suffered a sharp decline, losing approximately 40% over the following month and reaching its cycle bottom in December. • 2022 (November 8): Bitcoin had already experienced substantial losses when the FTX collapse occurred, almost simultaneously with the midterm elections. BTC plunged toward $15,500, marking the bottom of that cycle. • 2026 (November 3): We are once again approaching a U.S. midterm election amid economic uncertainty and following a significant Bitcoin correction. But here is something even more interesting! During all three previous midterm elections, Bitcoin was already in a bear market before Election Day. This raises an important question: Do midterm elections actually influence these declines, or are we simply observing a coincidence between Bitcoin's four-year cycle and the U.S. electoral calendar? After all, correlation does not imply causation! And now, in 2026, has Bitcoin already reached its cycle bottom, or could another major decline still be ahead? The historical pattern is intriguing, but three occurrences are not enough to establish a reliable rule. What do you expect Bitcoin to do after November 3? Alphractal.com

Bitcoin Open Interest Is Revealing an Interesting Pattern in 2026! Bitcoin's Open Interest (OI), measured in BTC, has increased by +36.7% in 2026, already surpassing the historical median year-end change of +26.4% over the past six years. But things get even more interesting when we analyze historical correlations! • 2025: Correlation of 0.79 • 2022: Correlation of 0.62 This means that Bitcoin's Open Interest trajectory in 2026 shows a strong statistical resemblance to the patterns observed in 2025, followed by 2022. However, the historical outcomes were significantly different! • 2022 ended with a +69.9% increase. • 2025 finished with a 12.5% decline. • Open Interest increased in 4 of the past 6 years. What can we learn from this? Even amid uncertainty and corrections across the crypto market, derivatives positioning continues to expand significantly in 2026. It's important to understand that rising Open Interest doesn't necessarily indicate buying pressure. It can also reflect growing short exposure, increased leverage, and the potential for major liquidation events. And here's a crucial detail: correlation does not mean the market will repeat the same outcome! The trajectory of 2026 could still diverge significantly from previous years, especially during the final two months of the year. Is the market building a new positioning structure, or simply repeating historical patterns before a major shift? Data > Narratives. Take advantage of your last chance to get 50% OFF our best plans! 🔥app.alphractal.com

Bitcoin may be breaking one of the most consistent historical patterns of its bear market cycles! Historically, Bitcoin's major bear markets have taken approximately one year, or slightly longer, to establish their definitive bottoms. Let's look at the duration of previous cycles, measured from peak to bottom: • 2013–2015: 406 days • 2017–2018: 363 days • 2021–2022: 376 days • 2025–2026: 386 days since the peak, so far. But there are two particularly interesting observations worth highlighting! 1. The bottom may have occurred earlier than expected! The lowest price recorded in the current cycle occurred on June 30, 2026, just 267 days after the peak. If that was indeed the definitive bottom, we could be witnessing a significant shift in Bitcoin's historical cycle timing, breaking a pattern observed across the previous three major bear markets. 2. We are still within the historical window for another bottom! Despite the recovery since June, the current cycle remains within the historical range of 363 to 406 days. This means Bitcoin could still establish a new low in the coming weeks, particularly within the next 20 days, without necessarily deviating from the timing observed in previous cycles. This possibility may seem increasingly unlikely to many market participants, but it cannot be ruled out simply because time has passed. The big question is: Are we witnessing, for the first time across these major cycles, a significant shift in the timing of Bitcoin's bear market? Or is it still too early to conclude that a historical pattern has been broken? Markets don't follow absolute rules. Data reveals patterns, but it never guarantees their repetition. Data > Narratives. Take advantage of your last chance to get 50% OFF our best plans! 🔥app.alphractal.com

🇧🇷 Brazil heads to the polls today, but what does monetary history reveal about the future of its economy? Over the past two decades, Brazil has experienced different governments, economic crises, shifts in monetary policy, and periods of significant appreciation and decline in the Ibovespa. Our charts highlight two fundamental indicators for understanding this history: Brazil's M2 Money Supply and the Central Bank of Brazil's balance sheet, including their year-over-year (YoY) changes. In 2008, the global financial crisis triggered a sharp market correction, followed by significant shifts in monetary conditions. Between 2015 and 2016, Brazil experienced a deep recession, accompanied by substantial contractions in the annual changes of both monetary indicators. Then, in 2020, the pandemic introduced extraordinary economic disruption, with sharp fluctuations in liquidity and monetary conditions. Now, in October 2026, something particularly interesting is happening: • Brazil's M2: U$$1.57 trillion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$239.28 billion. • Central Bank of Brazil: U$$825.47 billion, with an annual increase of approximately U$$64.59 billion. • Ibovespa: Approximately 205,000 points, trading near historical highs. The YoY charts reveal something important: monetary expansion and contraction occur in cycles, and these shifts have historically coincided with major turning points in Brazil's financial markets. After periods of negative annual changes, both indicators are now back in positive territory, suggesting renewed monetary expansion. But this raises an important question: How much of the appreciation in Brazilian financial assets reflects real economic growth, and how much is influenced by monetary expansion, inflation, and changing liquidity conditions? Monetary expansion does not automatically translate into higher stock prices, but understanding these cycles provides valuable context for investors. Presidents come and go. Economic cycles change. But the relationship between money, interest rates, confidence, and asset prices remains fundamental. Today, Brazil chooses its next president. For investors, one of the biggest questions is how the next administration's economic policies will shape liquidity, monetary stability, and capital markets in the years ahead. 📊 More than two decades of Brazil's monetary and financial history, visualized through Alphractal. Alphractal | Data Beyond the Market. Alphractal.com

Bitcoin Long-Term Holders: A Critical Shift in Supply Dynamics! Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder Net Position Change remains positive at +1.27 million BTC over the past 180 days, but the pace of growth is slowing significantly. Historically, major shifts in this metric have coincided with important transitions in Bitcoin's market cycles. While long-term holder supply continues to expand, the recent decline in momentum deserves close attention. Is this just a temporary slowdown, or the early stages of a new distribution phase? Alphractal.com

Bitcoin once dominated the crypto derivatives market, accounting for over 90% of total Open Interest. That landscape has changed dramatically. Analyzing data from 30 of the largest crypto exchanges, altcoins now account for 57.4% of total Open Interest, while Bitcoin represents 42.6%, a difference of 14.8 percentage points. This structural shift shows how derivatives exposure has expanded beyond Bitcoin, making altcoins increasingly important in understanding market volatility, liquidity dynamics, and liquidation risk. Bitcoin alone no longer tells the full story of the crypto derivatives market. Alphractal.com

The 5-Year History of Open Interest in the Crypto Market! The cryptocurrency derivatives market has undergone an incredible transformation over the past five years. In 2021, total Open Interest across crypto exchanges was approximately $15 billion. In 2022, it reached around $20 billion before experiencing a significant contraction during the bear market. In January 2024, we witnessed a historic milestone: the launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States. Following this event, the derivatives market experienced remarkable growth, accompanied by greater institutional participation, increased liquidity, and rising interest in leveraged positions. Open Interest surpassed $91 billion in 2025 and eventually reached an all-time high of approximately $155 billion! After a massive deleveraging event that pushed Open Interest down to around $54 billion, the market recovered, climbing back to $120 billion. Today, total Crypto Open Interest stands at $100.4 billion, approximately 570% higher than its 2021 levels. Bitcoin alone accounts for $42.6 billion, representing 42.4% of all outstanding positions across the crypto market. These numbers highlight how much the market has evolved and how derivatives have become an increasingly important part of the crypto ecosystem. But there is one crucial detail: higher Open Interest also means greater exposure to sudden market movements, deleveraging events, and cascading liquidations. The market has grown. Leverage has grown with it. And understanding the data has never been more important. 🔥app.alphractal.com

Fear & Greed: Stocks vs. Crypto! The stock market is currently at 18 (Extreme Fear), while the crypto market stands at 55 (Neutral). An interesting divergence in investor sentiment, showing that fear is much more prevalent in stocks than in cryptocurrencies right now! Alphractal.com

Bitcoin: Delta Growth Rate Shows Signs of Recovery! The Delta Growth Rate is a metric that combines the growth of Market Cap and Realized Cap, helping identify divergences between Bitcoin's price appreciation and the accumulation of on-chain value. Historically, negative values have been associated with periods of weaker speculative activity, accumulation, and potential undervaluation. Currently, the indicator remains in negative territory, but it has been recovering since July 2026! This movement suggests a gradual improvement in market dynamics, although it is still not enough to confirm a structural trend reversal. The big question now is: Will this recovery be strong enough to push the Delta Growth Rate back into positive territory? Explore this and other metrics at Alphractal.com.

Bitcoin’s Buy/Sell Pressure Delta Shows a Slight Decline in Buying Pressure! In a bearish scenario, this metric typically continues declining for several days, eventually moving into negative territory. Interestingly, historical data reveals two recurring patterns when the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta stops rising: 1. Bitcoin's price starts to decline. 2. Bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, building a cause-and-effect structure that can eventually lead to a larger price decline. This makes the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta an excellent indicator for monitoring bullish buying momentum and identifying when bears begin taking control of the market. At the moment, the slight reduction in buying pressure is not necessarily a reason for concern. However, it is extremely important to monitor this metric closely, especially if selling pressure begins to intensify. The key question is: Are bulls simply losing momentum, or are bears preparing to take control? Don't wait until the market makes its next move! Access the Alphractal platform now and set up an alert to notify you when selling pressure increases. You can even use ChatGPT or Claude through our MCP integration to schedule automated monitoring and receive notifications when these conditions emerge. Stay ahead of the market. Let the data speak. Explore: https://alphractal.com

If Ethereum drops for any reason, keep a close eye on the Investor Price. Historically, this metric has served as a strong price floor. What is the Investor Price? It represents the average acquisition price of all economically circulating (non-lost) Ethereum. Calculated by dividing the Investor Cap by the Adjusted Supply, this metric improves upon traditional Realized Price models by excluding permanently lost coins, providing a cleaner and more realistic market-wide cost basis. Set your price alert now! Explore more at Alphractal.com

Bitcoin May Be Breaking One of Its Most Important Historical Patterns. Something unusual is happening in Bitcoin's market structure, and long-term holders may be at the center of it. During the 2022 bear market, Bitcoin reached the −0.2 standard deviation band below the Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Price. This pushed the LTH MVRV below 1.0, meaning that long-term holders, as a group, were holding Bitcoin at an aggregate unrealized loss. Historically, these periods have been associated with deep bear markets, capitulation, and major accumulation opportunities. But this time, something is different. During the most recent correction, Bitcoin didn't even reach the LTH Realized Price. Instead, it found support around the +0.5 standard deviation band. In other words, while the 2022 bottom occurred below the long-term holders' aggregate cost basis, the latest correction stopped significantly above it. This raises an important question: Will Bitcoin eventually revisit the LTH Realized Price, or are we witnessing a structural change in its market cycles? If Bitcoin manages to complete this cycle without falling below that level, it could mark the first major Bitcoin cycle in which long-term holders never experience aggregate unrealized losses on-chain. However, there is another possibility worth considering. The LTH Realized Price can also rise over time as coins change hands and enter the long-term holder cohort, potentially narrowing the gap even without a major price correction. The implications are significant. Bitcoin's historical bear market structure has repeatedly included periods when even its most patient investors were collectively underwater. What happens if that phase no longer occurs? It wouldn't necessarily mean the end of bear markets, but it could suggest that Bitcoin's market structure is evolving. The data doesn't confirm that this historical pattern has been broken yet. But it gives us a compelling reason to question whether the next Bitcoin cycle will behave like the previous ones. Explore Bitcoin's on-chain metrics at Alphractal.com.

Crypto market sentiment is no longer bullish, according to social media and news sentiment data. Following the recent volatility across the crypto market, sentiment has shifted back into neutral territory. Explore the best crypto market metrics at Alphractal.com.

Bitcoin may face a much stronger supply shock in the future than most investors realize. Out of the current 20.10M BTC supply: • 37.2% is estimated to be lost • 31.6% is held by identified entities, including exchanges, ETFs, companies, and governments • Only 31.2% remains as circulating supply among miners, retail, whales, and unidentified holders This means the amount of Bitcoin truly available to the market may be far smaller than the headline supply suggests. As time goes on, more BTC tends to become structurally unavailable — either through permanent loss or long-term accumulation by strong hands and institutions. If demand keeps rising while liquid supply keeps shrinking, Bitcoin could face a real structural scarcity problem in the years ahead. At some point, the key question may no longer be: How much Bitcoin exists? But rather: How much Bitcoin is actually still available? Take advantage of Alphractal’s 50% OFF coupon. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=analise

Bitcoin may face a much stronger supply shock in the future than most investors realize. Out of the current 20.10M BTC supply: • 37.2% is estimated to be lost • 31.6% is held by identified entities, including exchanges, ETFs, companies, and governments • Only 31.2% remains as circulating supply among miners, retail, whales, and unidentified holders This means the amount of Bitcoin truly available to the market may be far smaller than the headline supply suggests. As time goes on, more BTC tends to become structurally unavailable — either through permanent loss or long-term accumulation by strong hands and institutions. If demand keeps rising while liquid supply keeps shrinking, Bitcoin could face a real structural scarcity problem in the years ahead. At some point, the key question may no longer be: How much Bitcoin exists? But rather: How much Bitcoin is actually still available? Take advantage of Alphractal’s 50% OFF coupon. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=analise

Bitcoin failed to hold above the Active Realized Price. The Active Realized Price is a refined version of the traditional Realized Price that considers only coins classified as active supply, excluding lost, deeply dormant, or permanently inactive coins. By focusing on coins that are actually moving, this metric provides a better estimate of the aggregate cost basis of the most economically active and reactive investors in the market. Bitcoin losing this level means price is once again trading below the average acquisition cost of this active investor base, making the Active Realized Price an important level to watch. Alphractal.com

Bitcoin Exchange Netflow, based on the 30 day moving average, remains deeply negative, indicating that more BTC has been leaving exchanges than entering them recently. Negative netflows should not be interpreted as a direct signal for price appreciation. However, persistent exchange outflows are an important fundamental metric. They suggest that a significant amount of Bitcoin is being moved away from exchanges, potentially into self custody or longer term holdings, reducing the amount of BTC readily available for trading. Even after significant market volatility, investors continue to withdraw Bitcoin from exchanges. This does not define short term price direction, but it remains an important sign of long term conviction in Bitcoin.

⚠️Google search interest in crypto has fallen to its lowest level since 2024. This reflects a broader decline in retail attention across the market. Lower interest is also visible across YouTube, X, crypto news, exchanges, aggregators such as CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko, and analysis platforms such as TradingView. For content creators, this environment usually means lower reach and weaker engagement. For platforms and exchanges, it means fewer users actively searching, trading, and exploring the market. These periods are a real test of retail resilience. When global attention fades, staying active becomes harder. But historically, the market does not remain interesting only when prices are rising and engagement is high. Sometimes, the most important periods are exactly those when fewer people are paying attention. Take advantage of Alphractal’s 50% OFF coupon. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=analise

Ethereum Active Addresses surpassed Bitcoin for the first time near the crypto market’s latest all time high region, and ETH has remained above BTC ever since. This matters because Active Addresses are a useful proxy for how much activity is actually taking place across a network. They do not represent unique users perfectly, but they help reveal changes in participation, transaction activity and attention between ecosystems. The crossover therefore marked an important shift: while Bitcoin was trading near record levels, Ethereum was experiencing a significant expansion in on chain activity. The picture is starting to change again. Bitcoin Active Addresses are currently relatively stable around their recent range, while Ethereum Active Addresses have begun to decline after the strong expansion that pushed ETH above BTC. Ethereum still remains ahead, but the momentum behind that activity is clearly weakening. The key question is not simply whether ETH has more active addresses than BTC. It is whether Ethereum can sustain this elevated level of network activity while Bitcoin remains stable. The first crossover happened near the market highs. Now ETH activity is losing momentum. That divergence is worth watching closely. Take advantage of Alphractal’s 50% OFF coupon. https://app.alphractal.com/plans?utm_source=telegram&utm_medium=analise