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Alphractal - Crypto Research
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频道帖子
Selling pressure still dominates Bitcoin’s price action.
According to the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, bears remain in control, and Bitcoin is now going through its third selling phase, a pattern that has also appeared in previous market cycles.
This does not mean the market will move in a straight line, but it does show that sellers are still dictating the short-term structure.
Patience remains key.
Explore powerful on-chain and market metrics at Alphractal, and don’t miss the chance to test the Professional Plan with a free trial.
Visit Alphractal.com
| 2 |  +2HYPE just hit a new ATH, while Open Interest broke above the $3B barrier.
But there is one important detail: OI has still not surpassed its previous ATH near $3.5B, so this is a level that needs to be monitored closely.
What really stands out is the Cumulative Trade Count Ratio, which measures the number of buy trades divided by sell trades on a cumulative basis, similar in logic to the well known CVD.
In the spot market, this ratio is more aligned with HYPE’s current price action.
But in the perpetual market, since early May, short trades have been gaining strength.
And this helps explain part of HYPE’s move.
While leveraged traders keep leaning short, whales continue pushing price in the opposite direction, forcing short liquidations and adding fuel to the rally.
The speculation around HYPE is real.
But the derivatives market is becoming increasingly important here. Open Interest, positioning, and trade imbalance must be monitored closely, because any sharp change in these metrics could trigger aggressive moves in HYPE’s price action.
🔥Alphractal.com | 297 |
| 3 |  +1Litecoin is entering an important region of the cycle.
LTC is now revisiting the lower levels of the Fibonacci Adjusted Market Mean Price, a metric that uses the Market Mean Price as its base and builds Fibonacci proportional bands to map expansion zones, mean reversion areas, and accumulation regions.
Historically, during periods of stronger market stress, Litecoin’s price has reached the lowest band, highlighted in green. In other moments, it found support in the blue regions, which also marked relevant value areas across previous cycles.
At the current moment, LTC has just touched the first lower level of this model, entering a possible accumulation zone once again.
The upper bands are usually associated with overheated phases and distribution risk. The lower bands tend to represent regions where the asset starts to look discounted relative to its structural mean.
On a logarithmic scale, it becomes clearer how Litecoin is once again approaching zones that, in the past, required attention from long term investors.
LTC is weak, but extreme weakness is also where cycles begin to form value.
Don’t waste time. Ask Alpha AI for free right now how your favorite crypto is doing and get incredible insights.
See more at Alphractal.com | 330 |
| 4 |  When the annual change in the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread turns positive, Bitcoin tends to weaken.
And this change is rising again!
This indicator measures the extra premium investors demand to buy high-risk U.S. corporate bonds compared to Treasuries.
When it rises on an annual basis, the signal is simple. The market is demanding more return to take on risk.
This usually reflects worsening credit conditions, lower appetite for speculative assets, and a less favorable environment for BTC.
Bitcoin does not react only to the halving or narratives, it also reacts to liquidity, credit, and global risk perception.
As long as this YoY spread continues to push higher, the market tends to become more defensive.
Come explore our huge collection of macroeconomic charts at Alphractal.com | 357 |
| 5 |  Google searches for cryptocurrencies are rising again in June.
This is a sign that retail investors are starting to search more about different crypto assets and catch up with the market again.
Spikes in Google Trends are also often related to moments of euphoria and fear.
Track more sentiment metrics at Alphractal.com. | 371 |
| 6 | Bitcoin’s Gini Coefficient measures the level of supply concentration across wallets.
When it rises, it means BTC is becoming more concentrated in large addresses, such as whales, custodians, ETFs, or exchanges.
When it falls, it means the supply is becoming more distributed across different market participants.
The interesting point is that the Gini Coefficient has stopped rising since October 2025, when Bitcoin was reaching its all-time high.
In other words, since that top, the coefficient has stopped moving higher.
Gini rising = higher concentration.
Gini falling = higher distribution.
A simple metric to track how Bitcoin’s supply is moving across cycles.
Alphractal.com | 299 |
| 7 |  Bitcoin’s Long/Short Ratio is rising, while altcoins have not changed much.
BTC is currently at 1.9, based on the average across several exchanges, while 230+ altcoins are averaging 1.65, with a slight decline over the last 24 hours.
In other words, even though traders are currently showing more interest in long positions across the market, that interest is stronger in Bitcoin.
However, when long interest increases too much, price often moves lower to liquidate those traders, and that is exactly what we have seen over the past few weeks.
As long as long interest remains elevated, the most likely scenario is sideways price action or further downside.
But the downside risk appears higher for BTC than for altcoins, since altcoins are showing lower Long/Short Ratio levels.
Track this more closely and ask Alpha AI how your favorite crypto is positioned across derivatives, on-chain data, and sentiment.
The insights can be fascinating.
See more at Alphractal.com | 312 |
| 8 | Would you use trading directly within Alphractal using automated strategies, alerts, and signal-based execution powered by Alphractal data? | 378 |
| 9 |  Introducing WORKBENCH🚀
The most flexible charting experience ever built on Alphractal.
Create fully custom charts from any combination of metrics and assets, style them your way, save them to your account, add them to dashboards, and even chat with Alphractal about your analysis.
• Build from any metric
• Line, Area, Scatter, Bubble, Heatmap & Gradient charts
• Advanced styling and metric parameters
• Cloud-saved and synced across devices
• Add custom charts directly to your dashboards
• AI-powered chart analysis built into Workbench
No limitations. No predefined templates. Just your data, your charts, and your edge.
Try now: Alphractal.com | 415 |
| 10 |  We just used Alphractal's new Workbench feature to overlay three custom metrics on Zcash. The structural shift the chart exposes is one of the cleanest patterns we've come across recently.
Quick background on Workbench: it's a new tool that lets you combine any of our metrics, draw your own annotations, and write custom formulas across multiple indicators on a single chart. First tool we've shipped that goes beyond pre-built dashboards.
What we plotted on ZEC:
— SER (Supply Equality Ratio): the ratio of supply held by the smallest network participants (less than 1/10,000,000 of total supply) versus the supply controlled by the top 1% of addresses. Higher readings mean smaller holders are gaining ground relative to the largest cohort.
— NDF (Network Distribution Factor): the share of supply held by addresses controlling at least 1/10,000 of the current supply. Effectively a whale concentration gauge.
— Supply New: the net amount of newly issued supply added to circulation over the interval, before adjustments for burns or long-term dormancy.
The pattern between roughly Q3 2025 and now:
— SER moved from ~0.10 to a current reading of 0.47. The small-holder cohort multiplied its share of supply relative to the top 1%.
— NDF dropped from ~0.73 to 0.57 in the same window. Whale concentration declined by ~22% in a matter of months.
— Supply New continued growing along trend, so the redistribution isn't the result of total supply changes. It's structural — coins moved from large holders to smaller ones.
— ZEC price ran from approximately $30 to above $800, with the rally accelerating exactly as the SER/NDF crossover formed.
The curious part: most assets concentrate supply during major rallies. Whales accumulate, retail enters near the top, distribution worsens. Zcash did the opposite — the supply structure decentralized as price ran.
Whether that reflects a coordinated unwinding by early holders, a structural broadening of the holder base, or something else, depends on the underlying network analysis. What's observable from the chart is the timing: the structural shift preceded the rally rather than followed it.
The full chart we built is shareable through Workbench. We'll be publishing more examples over the next few weeks.
Try Workbench: app.alphractal.com | 575 |
| 11 | We spent the last 90 days tracking the BTC/ETH cohort divergence. Most desks aren't looking at it. Here's the full breakdown.
The surface picture
June opened with synchronized risk-off: BTC down to $66,346 yesterday on $1.35B in long liquidations. ETH spot ETFs logged $401M in May outflows, BlackRock's ETHA leading the bleed at $80M single-day. IBIT pulled $448M in a single session. Eleven consecutive days of net spot ETF outflows on BTC. Reads bearish across the board.
Then you split the cohorts and the picture cracks open.
The friction nobody's pricing
BTC Long-Term Holder supply just hit a fresh all-time high: 16.44M BTC. 82% of circulating supply locked in wallets older than 155 days. The LTH cohort broke a 2.5-year downtrend in absolute holdings and pivoted to accumulation while spot bled 45% from the October ATH. Our Holder Sentiment metric on BTC has been pinned at buy-side conviction since May 14.
Meanwhile on ETH: Smart Money Flow Index (the only chain where this on-chain construction works, because of contract-level wallet tagging) printed a −32% delta over the same 30-day window. Exchange Flux Balance flipped positive — inflows beating outflows for the first time since February. The institutional-shaped wallets on ETH are doing the opposite of BTC LTHs. They're distributing.
BTC LTHs accumulating to record. ETH smart money distributing. ETF outflows on both, but the on-chain cohort behavior is inverted.
What that actually means
The market is mispricing this divergence. ETF flows reflect the marginal allocator — the rate-sensitive macro fund, the model-driven asset manager. They sell both BTC and ETH together because their gross exposure caps moved with DXY at 99 and the December hike now 60% priced.
The on-chain holders don't move with rate signals. They move with conviction. BTC conviction is at an ATH while ETH is bleeding from its core base.
The pair to watch isn't BTC/USD. It's ETHBTC. We're calling for ETHBTC to break the May low (0.018) inside the next 21 days, and we're tracking 7 specific wallet clusters for confirmation.
The takeaway
When LTH cohorts diverge across chains, the chain that's accumulating wins the next leg. ETF flows are noise. Cohort behavior is signal.
Full cohort dashboard → https://alphractal.com/?utm_source=telegram | 69 |
| 12 |  Most of crypto Twitter is calling for $50K BTC. The Accumulation-Distribution Cycle Index just printed the rarest macro signal of the last decade. Here's what almost nobody is reading.
ADCI is a Wyckoffian macro compass for BTC. Scale 0 to 100. Three zones:
Distribution, 70 to 100: cycle tops, insider exit during euphoria.
Markup/Markdown, 30 to 70: trend in motion.
Accumulation, 0 to 30: smart money absorption during disbelief. Cycle bottoms.
Where is ADCI today? Crashing through the lower 20s, the Wyckoff accumulation pole.
The exact zone that printed at the 2018 cycle low, before the next leg of +250%; the March 2020 COVID flush, before the next leg of +650%; and the late 2022 post-FTX bottom, before the next leg of +400%.
Three prior reads at this level. Three multi-year bull legs that followed within 8 months. Small sample, but the hit rate is 3 for 3.
The crowd reads “BTC down 4.6% overnight, ETFs bleeding, fear extreme” as confirmation of more downside.
We read it as the textbook accumulation signature: supply being absorbed by smart money at the exact moment retail conviction breaks.
Price is the noise. ADCI is the signal.
We are not calling the absolute bottom tick. We are calling the macro accumulation regime. That is the only call that has actually mattered across four BTC cycles.
Live BTC ADCI chart:
http://app.alphractal.com | 551 |
| 13 |  +1Bitcoin Holders in Profit Overview
Short-Term Holders (STH): 28% are still in profit
Long-Term Holders (LTH): 64% are still in profit
The market has been showing weakness for some time, and historically, major cycle bottoms tend to happen when both STH and LTH are under heavy unrealized losses.
Set alerts now on the most important key levels and get notified when this happens.
Alphractal.com | 463 |
| 14 |  Strategy sold BTC.
But this is not the first time.
In December 2022, the company sold 704 BTC for tax-loss harvesting and bought back 810 BTC just a few days later. In practice, it was a tax strategy, not a real exit from Bitcoin.
Today, June 1, Strategy sold only 32 BTC, around $2.5M. That represents approximately 0.004% of its total holdings, with 843,706 BTC still remaining.
The key question is not the size of this sale.
The key question is whether this was just a small operational move, or the first sign that the famous “never sell” narrative is starting to change.
Alphractal.com | 487 |
| 15 |  Across the Top 250 cryptos, whales continue to position against retail behavior.
The Whale vs Retail Delta is negative for both Bitcoin and altcoins, indicating that whales are either favoring short positions or simply closing their longs.
Meanwhile, retail traders continue to insist on longs.
See what few others are seeing and gain an edge in the crypto market!
Alphractal.com | 414 |
| 16 |  Our Repetition Fractal Cycle marks the next bottom between Oct 6-16, 2026. We're ~4-5 months from that window. The real question: does the fractal still hold?
Where we are today, against the script:
- Cycle top called: Oct 12-16, 2025. Hit inside the window.
- Current phase: Distribution → Bear Market. We've been chopping $73-77k for 3 weeks. Checks out.
- F&G: 25, Extreme Fear. Textbook late-distribution print.
- BTC dominance: 60.66% after breaking 8 months of accumulation. Matches pre-bottom historicals.
- Altcoin Season Index: 37. Deep Bitcoin season. Alts already bleeding.
See the fractal live → app.alphractal.com | 852 |
| 17 | We've been tracking the STH/LTH Market Signal since 2019. It's printed a Bear End signal twice before. Both times it nailed the bottom within weeks.
Here's what it's showing right now.
BTC at $76,848. The STH Realized Price sits at $78,100 — meaning the average short-term holder is underwater. The LTH Realized Price is at $48,019 — meaning long-term holders are sitting on 60%+ unrealized gains and not selling.
This is the exact divergence that appeared in late 2019 and early 2023. Short-term pain, long-term conviction. Both times the signal flagged Bear End followed by Bull Start within the same quarter. Both times BTC rallied 150%+ over the next 12 months.
Price below STH Realized Price with LTH Realized Price holding as structural support has a 2-for-2 track record as the single most reliable cycle bottom signal we've measured.
We're sitting in that zone for the third time in Bitcoin's history.
Full STH/LTH Market Signal → app.alphractal.com | 434 |
| 18 | We pulled up Chainlink's Liquidation Levels and the positioning is wild.
LINK sitting at $9.43. Shorts make up 54% of open positions — $800M stacked above current price. Three massive liquidation clusters at $10.90, $11.29 and $11.48. Each one is a cascade trigger.
On the other side, long liquidation support sits at $9.01 and $8.44. Thin cushion below, loaded spring above.
We've mapped this exact setup dozens of times across altcoins. When shorts stack this aggressively above price with thin downside liquidity, the resolution is almost always violent. One catalyst — an ETF headline, a BTC bounce past $78K, even a whale market buy — and $800M in shorts starts unwinding into itself.
The market isn't always right about direction. But the liquidation map never lies about where the fuel is sitting.
Live Liquidation Levels → app.alphractal.com/ | 361 |
| 19 |  We built an alert system for our Alpha Quant signals. Here's why it matters.
ICP flashed a Long on the 30m timeframe. Price ripped from $2.60 to $3.10 — 19% move. Most traders found out about it hours later scrolling through charts. The ones with alerts set caught it live.
We tracked how many Alpha Quant entries get missed simply because no one is watching at 3am. The answer was over 60% of them.
So we shipped alerts. Set it once, get notified the second a signal fires. No more missed entries on assets you're already watching.
This is the kind of edge that compounds over time. Not a fancy indicator — just being there when the signal hits.
Set your alerts → app.alphractal.com/screeners/signals | 317 |
| 20 |  Alphractal Terminal Upgrade — May 2026 ⚡️
We have just deployed a major terminal release, reshaping how you track liquidity, screen the market, and run real-time technical triggers.
Here is a quick look at the core upgrades now live:
• Screener Chat (Contextual AI): Real-time AI sits directly inside your screening workspace, fully capturing active screen coordinates, filters, and applied parameters.
• Alerting on Proprietary Signals: Take alerts beyond price. Set rapid triggers on Alpha Quant, ATR-VWMA, PTO, Buy/Sell Pressure, Risk, and Altseason.
• Scan Alerts (Horizontal Market Screens): Set a single complex setup condition and monitor the entire market live. Once any token meets your criteria, you get notified instantly.
• Sectoral Alerts in Crypto-Index: Monitor structural shifts at the index level. Spot overbought, oversold, or volume anomalies across Layer-1, AI, RWA, DeFi, and Memes.
• Omnipresent Chat Tools: Pull core metrics and system charts seamlessly into both General and Asset Summary chats.
• Upgraded Screener UX: Enhanced table performance, category groups, smart presets, and high-frequency auto-refresh speeded to 10 seconds.
Read the fully detailed structural breakdown, technical logs, and see the full feature images in our X update thread below:
https://x.com/Alphractal/status/2059575098546549045 | 487 |
