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Publicaciones del Canal
The number of social media posts about cryptocurrencies is showing signs of increasing.
After a decline at the end of June, the number of posts has recently started to rise again.
This is a sign that retail investors and many analysts are becoming more comfortable talking about cryptocurrencies again.
Access the most complete market analytics platform today.
Alphractal.com
| 2 |  +1Since late April, Global M2 has stabilized and stopped rising.
This partly explains the weaker behavior we are seeing across equities and crypto.
What is even more interesting is the year-over-year change in Global M2. At least three times in Bitcoin’s history, when this variation turned negative, it coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms.
Now, this variation is falling again, although it is still far from negative territory.
This is something worth monitoring over the coming months, especially from a long-term perspective.
Dive deeper into our metrics and discover the true Alpha.
Alphractal.com | 235 |
| 3 | +1 Since late April, Global M2 has stabilized and stopped rising.
This partly explains the weaker behavior we are seeing across equities and crypto.
What is even more interesting is the year-over-year change in Global M2. At least three times in Bitcoin’s history, when this variation turned negative, it coincided with major Bitcoin bottoms.
Now, this variation is falling again, although it is still far from negative territory.
This is something worth monitoring over the coming months, especially from a long-term perspective.
Dive deeper into our metrics and discover the true Alpha.
Alphractal.com | 178 |
| 4 |  Bitcoin’s STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss is currently at -$36B.
STH Net Unrealized Profit/Loss measures the net paper profit or loss held by Short-Term Holders.
Formula: STH Unrealized Profit minus STH Unrealized Loss.
Positive values indicate that recent buyers are still holding net gains. Negative values indicate widespread underwater positions and a more fragile market structure.
Interestingly, this metric was close to -$120B in February, when capitulation reached its peak in terms of unrealized losses.
Even though Bitcoin is now trading at lower prices than in February, Short-Term Holders are not carrying the same level of unrealized losses.
This is because the Short-Term Holder Realized Price is not as far from the current price as it was back in February.
This suggests that accumulation by Short-Term Holders may already be taking place.
To learn more about Bitcoin’s on-chain health and activate alerts and Alpha AI insights, visit Alphractal.com. | 284 |
| 5 |  SUI is getting very close to liquidating highly leveraged bulls, with maximum pain between $0.62 and $0.56.
Be careful with excessive leverage, especially in the current market conditions.
Add alerts now on our Liquidation Levels and stay ahead of the market.
Enjoy the 3-day free trial.
Alphractal.com | 328 |
| 6 |  Liquidation Levels, reimagined. 🚨
- Smarter, deeper model
- 30 exchanges aggregated
- Alerts on any liquidation zone → Email & Telegram
- 12h to +6 years of history
Stop guessing. See where the liquidity is.
Explore the new Liquidation Levels 👉 https://app.alphractal.com/cryptos/derivatives/chart?category=Derivatives&subCategory=Liquidation&chart=Liquidation+Levels&asset=btc&chartType=D002 | 348 |
| 7 |  +2The only thing Short-Term Holders are doing right now is realizing losses.
Bitcoin has not allowed these investors to realize profits for quite some time.
The STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio makes it clear that the current environment is dominated by on-chain movements at a loss.
This is typical of a bear market, and once Realized Loss starts losing strength, Bitcoin will likely be in the process of forming a bottom.
That is why it is necessary to monitor this closely on Alphractal.com. | 415 |
| 8 |  +3Cryptocurrency mining is going through a period of stagnation and reduced profitability.
This is what the Mining Equilibrium Index shows.
The metric compares short term average revenue per hash, using a 30 day window, with long term average revenue per hash, using a 365 day window.
Values above 1.0 indicate above average mining profitability, while values below 0.5 indicate stressed mining conditions.
Here are the current values for some of the main Proof of Work cryptocurrencies:
BTC: 0.75
Among these four assets, Bitcoin still shows the strongest mining profitability.
BCH: 0.66
Bitcoin still appears more attractive from a mining profitability perspective.
DOGE: 0.60
Mining profitability has declined significantly over the years.
LTC: 0.58
Litecoin currently shows the most critical scenario among the group.
Mining cryptocurrencies has increasingly become an activity for those with high capital, operational efficiency, and patience.
The current environment remains challenging for the sector, making it essential to closely monitor mining metrics in order to understand the health of each network and the miners behind them.
Miners remain key participants in decentralization and network security, but the data shows that profitability is far from an easy environment right now.
Identify signals and opportunities in your favorite cryptocurrencies and get the best out of Alpha.
Alphractal.com | 431 |
| 9 |  Stablecoin on-chain volume is showing an important slowdown.
In January 2026, the adjusted on-chain volume of all stablecoins was averaging around $350B per day, with several spikes above $600B transferred in a single day.
Now, the average is closer to $170B per day, which represents a reduction of roughly 50%.
This is not just a small decline. It suggests that stablecoin liquidity is circulating much less across the market.
Stablecoins may still exist in the system, but they are moving with less intensity. That usually means less speculation, less arbitrage, less rotation between assets, and a more cautious market environment.
The key point is simple:
Liquidity is not only about how much capital exists. It is also about how fast that capital moves.
Right now, stablecoin velocity is slowing down.
And when stablecoin activity cools, the crypto market often loses part of its short-term fuel.
Alphractal.com | 466 |
| 10 |  +1The Shiller P/E Ratio is now approaching dot-com bubble levels.
But what does this really mean?
The Shiller P/E, also known as the CAPE Ratio, measures the S&P 500 price relative to the average inflation-adjusted earnings of the previous 10 years.
This makes it a powerful long-term valuation metric because it smooths out short-term earnings distortions and gives a clearer view of how expensive the market is across cycles.
Right now, the metric is near levels only seen during some of the most overheated periods in U.S. market history.
That does not mean the market must crash tomorrow.
But it does mean that investors are paying an extremely high price for long-term earnings, and historically, when CAPE reaches these zones, future long-term returns tend to become less attractive.
The most interesting part is that the metric has basically stopped rising for almost a month.
This could be an early sign that valuation expansion is losing momentum.
In other words, the market may still look strong on the surface, but the risk-reward is becoming increasingly fragile.
When valuations are this stretched, the market needs strong earnings growth, lower rates, or even more liquidity to justify higher prices.
Without that, even a small change in sentiment can create volatility.
Data first. Narratives second.
Alphractal.com | 397 |
| 11 |  Bitcoin Cash just gave a masterclass in on-chain timing.
This chart has historically identified the major tops and bottoms of Bitcoin Cash with impressive precision.
This is the power of Alphractal’s Workbench combined with calibrated on-chain metrics.
Our adjusted CVDD model transforms raw blockchain behavior into a powerful signal for cycle extremes.
Red zones marked historical price tops.
Green zones marked historical price bottoms.
And Bitcoin Cash has respected this structure again and again.
This is why we are building Alphractal.
To help investors stop reacting emotionally and start reading the market through real on-chain data, calibrated models, and objective signals.
No model gives certainty.
But the right data can reveal where probability starts to change.
Make better decisions where real Alpha lives.
Alphractal.com | 332 |
| 12 |  One of the most Alpha lines in the CVDD Ratio is approaching Bitcoin’s historical bottom region once again.
This trendline has shaped almost every major cycle bottom every 4 years, marking zones where extreme fear, capitulation, and risk asymmetry became much more attractive.
The key point now is simple:
For this signal to repeat, Bitcoin would need to drop quickly below $50k.
If that happens, late September could be an interesting window to watch, since historically the metric tends to spend a few weeks moving near the bottom region before a clearer market reaction takes place.
Nothing better than adding an alert and being notified when this signal appears, right?
Go to Alphractal.com now and create your smart alert. | 306 |
| 13 |  +1For the first time since 2021, Bitcoin’s annual percentage change in both Difficulty and Hash Rate has turned negative.
This is a sign of weakening mining power compared to one year ago.
We can consider this a period of Bitcoin miner capitulation, a region where many miners are forced to reduce or even shut down their operations due to current market conditions.
But there is also something interesting: whenever the Hash Rate variation turned negative, it was also associated with local price bottoms.}
Alphractal.com | 282 |
| 14 |  Selling pressure still dominates Bitcoin’s price action.
According to the Buy/Sell Pressure Delta, bears remain in control, and Bitcoin is now going through its third selling phase, a pattern that has also appeared in previous market cycles.
This does not mean the market will move in a straight line, but it does show that sellers are still dictating the short-term structure.
Patience remains key.
Explore powerful on-chain and market metrics at Alphractal, and don’t miss the chance to test the Professional Plan with a free trial.
Visit Alphractal.com | 582 |
| 15 |  +2HYPE just hit a new ATH, while Open Interest broke above the $3B barrier.
But there is one important detail: OI has still not surpassed its previous ATH near $3.5B, so this is a level that needs to be monitored closely.
What really stands out is the Cumulative Trade Count Ratio, which measures the number of buy trades divided by sell trades on a cumulative basis, similar in logic to the well known CVD.
In the spot market, this ratio is more aligned with HYPE’s current price action.
But in the perpetual market, since early May, short trades have been gaining strength.
And this helps explain part of HYPE’s move.
While leveraged traders keep leaning short, whales continue pushing price in the opposite direction, forcing short liquidations and adding fuel to the rally.
The speculation around HYPE is real.
But the derivatives market is becoming increasingly important here. Open Interest, positioning, and trade imbalance must be monitored closely, because any sharp change in these metrics could trigger aggressive moves in HYPE’s price action.
🔥Alphractal.com | 489 |
| 16 |  +1Litecoin is entering an important region of the cycle.
LTC is now revisiting the lower levels of the Fibonacci Adjusted Market Mean Price, a metric that uses the Market Mean Price as its base and builds Fibonacci proportional bands to map expansion zones, mean reversion areas, and accumulation regions.
Historically, during periods of stronger market stress, Litecoin’s price has reached the lowest band, highlighted in green. In other moments, it found support in the blue regions, which also marked relevant value areas across previous cycles.
At the current moment, LTC has just touched the first lower level of this model, entering a possible accumulation zone once again.
The upper bands are usually associated with overheated phases and distribution risk. The lower bands tend to represent regions where the asset starts to look discounted relative to its structural mean.
On a logarithmic scale, it becomes clearer how Litecoin is once again approaching zones that, in the past, required attention from long term investors.
LTC is weak, but extreme weakness is also where cycles begin to form value.
Don’t waste time. Ask Alpha AI for free right now how your favorite crypto is doing and get incredible insights.
See more at Alphractal.com | 419 |
| 17 |  When the annual change in the ICE BofA US High Yield Option-Adjusted Spread turns positive, Bitcoin tends to weaken.
And this change is rising again!
This indicator measures the extra premium investors demand to buy high-risk U.S. corporate bonds compared to Treasuries.
When it rises on an annual basis, the signal is simple. The market is demanding more return to take on risk.
This usually reflects worsening credit conditions, lower appetite for speculative assets, and a less favorable environment for BTC.
Bitcoin does not react only to the halving or narratives, it also reacts to liquidity, credit, and global risk perception.
As long as this YoY spread continues to push higher, the market tends to become more defensive.
Come explore our huge collection of macroeconomic charts at Alphractal.com | 474 |
| 18 |  Google searches for cryptocurrencies are rising again in June.
This is a sign that retail investors are starting to search more about different crypto assets and catch up with the market again.
Spikes in Google Trends are also often related to moments of euphoria and fear.
Track more sentiment metrics at Alphractal.com. | 474 |
| 19 | Bitcoin’s Gini Coefficient measures the level of supply concentration across wallets.
When it rises, it means BTC is becoming more concentrated in large addresses, such as whales, custodians, ETFs, or exchanges.
When it falls, it means the supply is becoming more distributed across different market participants.
The interesting point is that the Gini Coefficient has stopped rising since October 2025, when Bitcoin was reaching its all-time high.
In other words, since that top, the coefficient has stopped moving higher.
Gini rising = higher concentration.
Gini falling = higher distribution.
A simple metric to track how Bitcoin’s supply is moving across cycles.
Alphractal.com | 362 |
| 20 |  Bitcoin’s Long/Short Ratio is rising, while altcoins have not changed much.
BTC is currently at 1.9, based on the average across several exchanges, while 230+ altcoins are averaging 1.65, with a slight decline over the last 24 hours.
In other words, even though traders are currently showing more interest in long positions across the market, that interest is stronger in Bitcoin.
However, when long interest increases too much, price often moves lower to liquidate those traders, and that is exactly what we have seen over the past few weeks.
As long as long interest remains elevated, the most likely scenario is sideways price action or further downside.
But the downside risk appears higher for BTC than for altcoins, since altcoins are showing lower Long/Short Ratio levels.
Track this more closely and ask Alpha AI how your favorite crypto is positioned across derivatives, on-chain data, and sentiment.
The insights can be fascinating.
See more at Alphractal.com | 353 |
