اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
TheNebulator
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Takes on news, politics and the universe. Don't call me a journalist.
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پستهای کانال
Starmer’s little piracy stunt is clearly aimed at bolstering his standing at home and changing the subject from rapey, head-chopping invaders. That’s his problem. Doesn’t mean Russia shouldn’t punish such behavior - swiftly, unmistakably, clearly.
Not “we reserve the right to respond in due course.” Not making complaints to impotent international bodies. No, pick a target, hit it, film it, publish the video, say “thus always to those who cross us.”
Send. A. Message.
Not doing so all these years is how you got here.
| 2 | Putin's meeting with SMO stormtroopers proves that the Kremlin knows precisely what the problems on the frontline are. He is also entirely aware of the strategic situation. Which makes it even more baffling as to why he's still operating within the constraints of "wedontdothatism".
He wants to send a message to the West: Don't wage war on Russia, you will regret it. Fine, but he hasn't made them regret it yet.
Economic pain doesn't get through to the blobalist elite ruling with minimal consent of the governed masses. Striking Kiev or Lvov doesn't hurt Berlin or London.
Maybe telling Elon Musk's dad — who was at SPIEF — that continued use of Starlink by OSU would be met with kesslerization. I like Musk, but from this perspective he's an enemy.
If application of violence against a problem hasn't solved it yet... apply more violence.
Happy Russia Day! | 429 |
| 3 |  Trump first announced he would bomb Iran and seize Kharg island, now he's saying he is calling it off because Iran agreed to some kind of discussions.
A lot of you will scoff, even insist that this isn't how things work in the real world.
Except... this is precisely how Narratives work, and Trump is far more versed in narratives than most.
"But we don't do that!" Yes, and that is why you fail.
Perhaps we could learn something from all this, rather than keep getting caught off-guard and looking foolish? | 456 |
| 4 | Russia's strategy in Ukraine most resembles Grant's approach to crushing the Confederacy in 1864/65: Pin down Lee's army and strangle the South slowly, while Sherman guts it from behind.
Now imagine if the Confederacy had a land connection to a coalition of European powers funding it and supplying it with ammunition and weapons. Clearly, this strategy wouldn't work.
Not to mention that with 404 there's no Sherman, no March to the Sea, no Vicksburg or Farragut's capture of New Orleans.
I saw an interesting comment today:
Those who truly understand violence will be the last to agree to it, and will do what’s necessary to bring it to a quick and efficient end.
The first part is literally what Putin has said a million times about the reasons for the SMO, and it's tru and it fits. I'm just curious when do we get to the "do what's necessary to bring it to a quick and efficient end" part. | 549 |
| 5 | The only thing that happened was a new string of Ukrainian terror-bombings, from medium-range slaughter of civilians in Novorossiya to this morning's long-range attacks on Cheboksary and the torching of the Sevastopol museum housing the famous panorama of the Crimean War.
The biggest downside to the take-it-slow approach to war of attrition is that the enemy gets time to innovate, improvise and adapt. Especially if they are bankrolled by infinity funny money from untouchable allies (remember Afghanistan?).
"But that doesn't help them on the battlefield!" My brother in Christ, the battlefield isn't just the frontline. Act accordingly. | 514 |
| 6 | Today is the 82nd anniversary of Operation Overlord, the Anglo-American landings on the beaches of Normandy in WW2. SecWar Pete Hegseth went to Normandy for the commemoration ceremonies and took his wife and children along (to the pearl-clutching horror of blobalist media).
Hegseth’s speech was like a peculiar lasagna: a layer of rah-rah patriotism, a layer of thinly veiled “you are bad allies now, Europe” and a layer of “why are you not defending your own beaches (from migrant invaders)” that – while based – seemed oddly inappropriate in the context.
It seemed like was trying to say “America invading beaches to single-handedly defeat tyranny and bring about democracy good, but others invading beaches bad!”
What bothered me more, though, is the tendency of Americans in particular to spout “Spielberg history” in which the USA fought WW2 for “freedom and democracy” and won single-handedly, while the USSR either never existed or triumphed only because of American military aid.
You will never hear Russians disparage Americans who fought in WW2. They are rightly considered heroic allies in the fight against the Third Reich. Yet the Americans constantly erase the USSR. Add to it the framing of the war against some abstract “tyranny” and an average ignorant observer who can’t tell the difference between Martin Luther and Martin Luther King may conclude the US and Germany fought together against the Soviets. Because they’re “allies” now, right? Right?
Because of this deliberate twisting of reality, it becomes possible for the disgraceful French defense minister to invoke Ukraine at the Normandy event, even though her ancestors (supposedly) fought against the same Nazis the Banderite Maidan regime now worships. Zut alors. | 773 |
| 7 | Putin's response (Work, brothers!) was pitch perfect.
Now let's see if anything actually happens. | 695 |
| 8 | Zelensky's letter is as snide as it is cynical.
Hides desperation.
The only answer should be "nuts."
(That is meant as a Bastogne reference, but it works just as well in Russian).
🐿 | 832 |
| 9 | Case in point: Some Westoid talking about 120 alleged acts of sabotage by Russia in Europe. Putin could've just said "ok fine, we're at war, we start bombing you tomorrow."
Can't be serious with un-serious people. | 831 |
| 10 | Sometimes I wish Putin would take a page from Trump's manual for dealing with journalists and, instead of offering hour-long treatises on economic and geopolitical issues, simply say "that was a stupid question, what are you, stupid? Shut up and let smart people talk", or something to that effect.
It's incredible how much time gets wasted in "press conferences" with maliciously frame gotcha questions from people who don't even deserve to be there.
Also, not every sentence uttered at SPIEF is breaking news, people, get a grip. | 807 |
| 11 | During the wars of the 1990s, the Serbs would repeatedly compromise on tactical objectives and even key national interests so the West would stop demonizing them. Yet the West kept demonizing them, because that's how it got the Serbs to give in every time.
This is not a post about the Serbs. | 1 237 |
| 12 | "If a war is worth fighting, it is worth ending. If it is not worth ending fast, it was not worth starting."
I dare say this is the American mindset when it comes to war. It comes from John A. Konrad (the fifth of his name), a highly respected mariner with Pentagon connections. His post is worth reading in its entirety.
Here's another bit:
Deterrence, the actual reason to spend this much on a military, only works when adversaries believe the response to attacking Americans will be fast, disproportionate, and final. Twenty years in Afghanistan taught every adversary on earth the opposite lesson: hit America slowly, wait us out, watch the lawyers do the rest.
The next time the Army is let off the leash, the world should be afraid.
He's talking about the misguided missions in GWOT, but you can't tell me the part about deterrence doesn't apply to Russia in 404. The GAE has literally used the slow ramp-up approach, counting on Russia to do nothing in retaliation (except beat up the Banderites, but the GAE doesn't feel pain from that).
I'm not saying the Russians should adopt the American mindset. I am, however, saying that they need to take it into consideration. Know the enemy, know thyself. Basic Sun Tzu. | 1 173 |
| 13 | To the surprise of precisely no one, 404 has doubled down on attacking LNR, Kherson and Crimea (guess they can't reach Donetsk?), demanding missiles from NATO, and playing the victim for the cheerleader Western media.
CNN declined the Russian invitation to visit Starobelsk because (as it appears) their crew had actually been embedded with the unit that launched the attack!
I know Russia is being methodical about this and looking at the actuarial tables of attrition. The biggest problem with this approach is that wars tend to incentivize development and use of new tech, such as drones. It's undeniable that they have significantly complicated battlefield advances.
The longer wars goes on, the more opportunities the enemy has to kill. This is why Americans always go for the jugular, by the way. I'm not saying be like them — I'm saying learn from it. | 957 |
| 14 | Oreshnik strike on a military factory. Massive ballistics on Kiev. So far so unremarkable. A note from the Russian Foreign Ministry that Moscow has had enough, warning diplomats and civilians to evacuate? Hm, they might just mean business this time.
Took long enough.
What’s Gagarin’s line again, поехали? | 1 125 |
| 15 |  "NO MERCY" is some pretty strong language here.
Let's see what happens. | 1 217 |
| 16 | Last night Ukraine attacked a teacher's college in LRN. Teens who were studying to be kindergarten caretakers were murdered in their sleep. Such murder is entirely in line with the priorities of 404 — to their last dying breath, from Hell's heart, they will try to stab at the people of Donbass who dared resist their coup.
What I don't get is the restraint. The naivete of expecting the "global community" to condemn this. The expectation of decency from the Globalist Blob that has none. But most of all, the reluctance to punish those responsible.
What difference is there between this and Beslan? Or the metro bombing that got Putin to proclaim Russia would hunt terrorists down in the sewers if need be? He later said he regretted it, but he shouldn't have: such words (accompanied by force) established deterrence and eventually led to a total victory in Chechnya. I mean, look at the Chechens now!
The khokhols of 404 aren't afraid. The West backing them is not afraid. They should be. Make them. | 1 056 |
| 17 | Russia fumbling the Narrative ball, episode MMXXVI: Yookay media are running sensationalist "UNSAFE CRAZY IVAN" stories this afternoon.
The Russian MOD is saying nothing. They could have run the story first ("brave Russian pilots fend off perfidious Anglo spy plane helping 404 target Russian civilians! Message to London: Bugger off!"), or at least troll on social media: "Um, your plane was over the BLACK SEA, last we checked that's nowhere near the YooKay". You know the Iranians would.
Instead, we're going to get a dry statement about full respect for international law in three days. <sigh> | 982 |
| 18 | Some people would rather be seen to be right than win. (I’ve been guilty of this myself, many times.)
It goes something like this: Someone makes a good analysis of what’s going on, gets a bit of a following and a reputation. They’re not an actual decision-maker, just a kibitzer. Then something happens that changes the narrative – which in turn threatens to influence reality.
Now, here’s the key – this shift goes in the direction of that person’s desired outcome. If they care about the outcome, they could reinforce the narrative, but that would be at odds with their previous analysis! They would be WRONG ONLINE. This is clearly unacceptable!
So they speak up, because they need to be seen to be correct. And in doing so, interfere with the narrative that would lead to their preferred outcome – in effect, counter-signaling not just their own side, but their own cause. But they were right, right?
Many such cases! | 927 |
| 19 | Right on cue, the 404 launched a cope-drone wave at Moscow Region (not the city itself) today so Zelya could have something to prattle about. These long-range strikes are basically the equivalent of V-1 and V-2 strikes in WW2, of dubious military value and mostly for propaganda.
Clearly, 404 doesn't care about Russia's nuclear deterrent, since no one in Kiev believes it will be used against them — or it would have happened by now. Are they wrong?
The good news is that the frontline appears to be moving again, if ever so slowly. | 972 |
| 20 | Ukraine got rocked by a series of missile and drone attacks overnight, but it's hard to tell if they will have much effect on the frontline. So long as the Ukrainians have Starlink and infinity drone-assembling workshops dispersed among the civilian population, going after legacy "military industry" targets seems both futile and wasteful. Infrastructure, on the other hand...
The Russians seem to be practicing "Slow is smooth, smooth is fast", even though it's a saying of the American SEALs and as far as I know there is no equivalent phrase in Russian. | 1 061 |
