Macro Trader

Bottom-line: Mild Recession. The euro area suffered the mildest possible recession during the winter after Russia’s war in Ukraine sent energy prices soaring.

다음 주 FOMC 당일 새벽을 위해 아껴두자. 🙈

Bottom-line: OECD가 세계 경제성장률이 바이러스 대확산 이후 좀처럼 회복되기 싶지 않다고 함. 이 전망은 세계은행에서 상당한 성장 둔화와 불안정한 상태에 경제가 직면해 있음을 경고한 바로 다음 날임. 바이러스 대확산 이전 7년간 연펑균 3.4% 성장했던 세계 경제는 올해 2.7%, 내년 2.9% 성장에 그치며 이전 궤도에 회복하기 어려우며, 여전한 물가를 통제하며 성장 동력을 회복시키려는 중앙은행을 힘들게 하고 있음. 다음 주 1980년대 이후 가장 빠르고 강한 긴축을 시행 중인 주요 중앙은행들이 금리인상을 멈출지, 더 이어갈 것인지 중요한 결정을 앞두고 있음. The global economy is set for a weak recovery from the shocks of Covid and Russia’s war in Ukraine, dogged by persistent inflation and the restrictive policies of major central banks seeking to contain price pressures, the OECD said. The Paris-based organization’s latest Economic Outlook forecasts a 2.7% expansion of world output this year and only a modest pickup to 2.9% in 2024, both below the 3.4% average in the seven years before the pandemic. The US, the euro area and China will see the same relative sluggishness in their recoveries, while inflation will be stronger than in the period through 2019. The situation creates a particular headache for central banks as they must continue to react to core price pressures that are proving stronger than expected, while not overly hurting growth, the OECD said. The caution comes a day after the World Bank warned the global economy is in a precarious state and heading for a substantial growth slowdown later this year as interest-rate increases start to bite. Major monetary authorities face imminent decisions on whether to pause or pursue the fastest cycle of rate hikes since the 1980s, with both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank scheduled to meet next week. 

Bottom-line: 얼핏 주식들이 과열에 진입한게 아닌가 생각될 수 있지만, 올해와 같이 양극화가 심한 시장에서는 포괄적인 주가지수보다 정확한 그림을 그려봄이 더 바람직할 것임. S&P 500 지수 내에서 가장 시가총액이 높은 5개 주식으로 구성한 지수를 만들고, 이를 과거로부터 현재까지 약세 시장의 성과로 비교해보면, 이들은 과열과 멀리 있단 사실을 알 수 있음. 이는 곧 시가총액 상위 주식이나 성장주를 대표하는 Nasdaq 100 지수의 초과 상승 여력이 남았단 의미와 같음. The largest-market-cap stocks and the Nasdaq do not yet look historically overbought, meaning they may have more upside potential. With stocks like Nvidia reaching for the moon, it might seem plain as day that mega-cap stocks are overbought. While that is true using RSIs, stochastics, etc., it is not the case when you compare their behavior to previous bear markets. This has been a two-speed market this year. That’s why it makes more sense to look at the underlying picture rather than focusing solely on the broad index. In this vein, we can create a “Top 5” index of the largest S&P 500 stocks by market cap through time, and a residual index of the remaining stocks. We can then look at how these indexes have typically behaved in bear markets to get a better historical perspective. We can see in the chart below that far from being overbought, the Top 5 stocks are underperforming where they have normally been at this point in a bear market.

One More Thing. Apple unveiled devices including a long-awaited $3,499 mixed-reality headset that will go on sale in the US in early 2024, and said it will partner with Disney for 3D content. It also rolled out a larger MacBook Air, new versions of its Mac Studio and Mac Pro desktops, and updated iPhone and iPad software. The stock hit an intraday record before the announcement but closed a tad lower.

The benchmark US equity gauge inched up 0.2% as of 9:40 a.m. in New York, leaving it just shy of a 20% gain from its October low, the defining threshold for a bull market.

Bottom-line: Vote is ongoing, The House has enough votes. The House has enough votes to pass legislation that would suspend the debt limit through Jan. 1, 2025 to avert a US default.

Bottom-line: Pass. The House has enough votes to pass legislation that would suspend the debt limit through Jan. 1, 2025 to avert a US default.

Key Event. 💪

Spanish inflation slowed by more than anticipated, supporting the European Central Bank officials who say the continent’s historic price spike is fading and interest-rate increases can soon end.

Global markets are primed for a relief rally after US negotiators agreed to a tentative deal to resolve the debt crisis.

Bottom-line: Confidence Debt-Limit Deal Will Pass. President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy voiced confidence that their tentative debt-ceiling deal will pass Congress and reach the president’s desk for signature, averting a historic US default.

Bottom-line: It's a Deal. White House and Republican negotiators reached a tentative deal to raise the US debt ceiling and avert a default that threatened to send tremors through the global economy, according to people familiar. 

끝.