Macro Trader

금리인상 주기가 끝나고 금리인하로 그 관심이 옮겨가고 있는 때, 블룸버그 칼럼 'Fed Dissents Dwindle in Powell Era Despite Policy Differences'을 읽어보셨으면 합니다.

The Bank of Korea held its key interest rate steady for a seventh straight meeting, extending its fight against inflation into next year while also staying cautious not to undermine economic momentum.

Bond traders are pricing in the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by May as bets mount that the central bank will move toward easing monetary policy.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting.

Charles Munger, Warren Buffett’s alter ego, sidekick and foil, has died at the age of 99.

OpenAI reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return as OpenAI CEO, the co. says in a post on X.

60도 웨지 백스핀.

• Nvidia In the fiscal third quarter, which ended Oct. 29, revenue more than tripled to $18.1 billion, the company said. Profit was $4.02 a share, minus certain items. Analysts had predicted sales of about $16 billion and earnings of $3.36 a share. Nvidia’s data center division, the star performer in its operations, had $14.5 billion of revenue, up 279% from the same period a year earlier. The company’s personal computer unit, meanwhile, has rebounded from an industrywide slowdown. Its revenue rose 81% to $2.86 billion. Nvidia’s success in selling AI chips to companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s.

Microsoft closed at a record high after hiring OpenAI co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. US stocks rose overall, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level since August.

Chinese President Xi Jinping says in a speech in San Francisco that China will not fight a cold war or a hot war with anyone.

Implication: 물가상승 압력 완화에 소매판매 예상치 상회가 엇갈림을 줌. 다만, 이는 위험자산 투자자들에게 위험선호 성향을 낮추기보다, 되려 너무 뜨겁지도 차갑지도 않은 투자 적기(Goldilocks)란 생각을 줄 것임. The disinflation narrative got a further fillip with the release of a PPI report that shows lower-than-expected producer price rises across every cohort on a m/m basis. The retail sales headline data was a little mixed, but in aggregate the figures look a bit stronger than expected once revisions are taken into account. Needless to say, that’s a kind of Goldilocks combo that should do little to derail the asset-market enthusiasm.

Horizon: 2020년 4월 이후 생산자물가가 가장 크게 하락함에 따라 물가 압력이 덜해진단 증거를 추가시킴. Prices paid to US producers unexpectedly declined in October by the most since April 2020, adding to evidence that inflationary pressures are abating across the economy.

Rate-Cut Euphoria. ✂️