Macro Trader

이미 시장은 모든 자산의 상승(“everything rally”)이란 말에 익숙해졌고, 다음으로는 산타 랠리(“Santa rally”)에 대한 이야기를 기대하고 있을 것임. 채권 금리가 하락하면서 온 지역, 모든 자산, 심지어 잘 알려지지 않은 작은 암호화폐들까지도 상승한 마당에 CSI 300 지수는 월 간 -2.1% 하락했기 때문에 ‘Everything Ex-China Rally’란 말이 생긴 것임.

그리고 신흥국에 속한 우리들이 투자를 하고 있다면, 중국이 어떤 평가를 받는지 신경 쓰지 않을 수 없음. ‘Everything Ex-China Rally’라는 말에 대해 향후에도 이런 상황이 펼쳐질지 고민해보면 좋을 것 같음.

대략적으로 이 칼럼의 핵심을 요약하자면, 비정상적으로 긴 기간 동안 통화정책의사결정이 만장일치로 이뤄진 것을 주제로 이야기를 시작하며, (Jerome PowellThis is an unusually long stretch of unanimity that ignores fundamental differences and uncertainty about monetary policy and the direction of the economy.) 비정상적이라 부르는 이유는, 파월이 의장을 맡은 지난 6년 동안 매 회의에 반대를 표시한 건은 0.3건에 불과하며, 이는 볼커가 의장을 맡을 때보다 1/4 수준, 엄격한 통제로 유명했던 그린스펀의 절반 수준에 부족하기 때문임. (The consensus among Fed policymakers during Powell's nearly six years as chairman is historically unique. A Bloomberg analysis of FOMC voting results found that Federal Reserve chairs averaged about 0.3 objections per meeting through November. That's as much as a quarter. Paul Volker And almost half alan greenspan, who famously maintained tight control over the institution he oversaw for 18 years.) 투표에 참여하는 핵심 인사들은 집단사고로 자칫 향할 수 있다는 비판에 대해, 언제든지 반대해야 할 상황이 오면 그럴 수 있다 답했지만, 실상 그렇게 반대할 수 있는 환경이 있는지와 다양성에 대한 관점이 그들 사이에 형성되는지부터 의구심이 든다는 것임. (This raises “questions about whether committee discussions and decisions are sufficiently challenged by diverse perspectives,” they wrote in August. paper Published by the Hutchins Center at the Brookings Institution. “Committees should ask themselves whether the decision-making and the various aspects of the decision-making allow sufficient scope to effectively challenge the majority view.”) 앞으로 우리가 중앙은행의 결정을 볼 때는, 이러한 점이 금리동결, 금리인하에 어떻게 작용할지도 함께 고려하면 좋을 것임.

금리인상 주기가 끝나고 금리인하로 그 관심이 옮겨가고 있는 때, 블룸버그 칼럼 'Fed Dissents Dwindle in Powell Era Despite Policy Differences'을 읽어보셨으면 합니다.

The Bank of Korea held its key interest rate steady for a seventh straight meeting, extending its fight against inflation into next year while also staying cautious not to undermine economic momentum.

Bond traders are pricing in the first Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by May as bets mount that the central bank will move toward easing monetary policy.

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is betting the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates sooner than markets are predicting.

Charles Munger, Warren Buffett’s alter ego, sidekick and foil, has died at the age of 99.

OpenAI reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return as OpenAI CEO, the co. says in a post on X.

60도 웨지 백스핀.

• Nvidia In the fiscal third quarter, which ended Oct. 29, revenue more than tripled to $18.1 billion, the company said. Profit was $4.02 a share, minus certain items. Analysts had predicted sales of about $16 billion and earnings of $3.36 a share. Nvidia’s data center division, the star performer in its operations, had $14.5 billion of revenue, up 279% from the same period a year earlier. The company’s personal computer unit, meanwhile, has rebounded from an industrywide slowdown. Its revenue rose 81% to $2.86 billion. Nvidia’s success in selling AI chips to companies such as Microsoft Corp. and Alphabet Inc.’s.

Microsoft closed at a record high after hiring OpenAI co-founders Sam Altman and Greg Brockman. US stocks rose overall, with the S&P 500 closing at its highest level since August.