Ukraine War Analysis

Due to recent advances, Russian forces have now established control over large parts of the tactical ridgeline between the Bakhmut-Siversk line and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka line, putting the last 3 cities of this so-called "fortress belt" at major risk. With the battle for Kostyantynivka now in its final stages, Russia is developing an offensive in arguably the most crucial part of the entire frontline. Once they are able to capture the entirety of this ridgeline, all of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk will be within range of barrel artillery, and the battles for the cities will effectively start. This, combined with a push from Kostyantynivka and even the Dobropillya area, will be a major setback for Ukraine, and could mark the beginning of the end for these last Donbas cities. Right now, special attention is being made by the Russian command on clearing the remaining heavily fortified Ukrainian positions between Siversk and Slovyansk, in order to complete their goal of capturing this crucial line of tactical heights. This will allow Russia to bring forward drone operators, barrel artillery, and MLRS to within range of new areas, and allow for deep DRG infiltrations, possibly as far as the eastern outskirts of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk itself. At the same time, the fall of Kostyantynivka and the beginning of battles for Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka will pose a major threat to Druzhkivka, as the near-continuous and unbroken line of urban areas stretching from Kostyantynivka to Druzhkivka, and even to Kramatorsk, provides cover for additional deep Russian infiltrations. As of now, forward Russian assault groups are just 5.5 km from the Kramatorsk Airport on the eastern outskirts of the city. The situation is critical, and without counterattacks, it will continue to massively worsen over the coming weeks and months.

Close-up footage of an Iranian Shahed-131/136 drone impact on a warehouse in Kuwait City. A fire from a previous impact is visible.

Footage showing the impact of 4 Iranian ballistic missiles at King Faisal Airbase in Jordan last night. 4 missiles were launched in this attack, which would mean that Iran achieved a 100% impact rate. At the time, Jordan's military falsely claimed that all 4 missiles were shot down.

Iran has announced its withdrawal from the Memorandum of Understanding due to repeated U.S. violations. The Iranian deputy foreign ministry stated that Iran will exercise “full sovereignty over the Strait of Hornuz, no matter the costs”, including Oman’s half.

Iranian ballistic launches!

US aircraft are currently striking coastal areas of Iran in response to an Iranian strike against a tanker being escorted through Omani waters by the US Navy. The tanker in question was using the Omani territorial waters instead of the Iranian approved route Most Iranian officials are in Iraq for the funeral procession but the president of Iran has made an emergency return to the country These strikes are more serious than the recent tit for tat and are still ongoing

I waited until we got the actual text of the MoU because I found it hard to believe the leaks. But they were true, this deal is an abject humiliation for the United States That being said I don't see how this deal can hold without an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon We'll see how long this holds. But even so the damage is done, it will take months to return to anything approaching normal traffic through the Strait. And years to get back to pre war levels

—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Netanyahu: ‘What we did in Gaza, we will do in Lebanon. Just like we secured the South of Israel, we will secure the North.’ @Middle_East_Spectator

Massive combined Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv tonight. At least 22 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and several Zircon cruise missiles attacked the city. Several groups of Kh-101 cruise missiles are now flying there. Strikes have also been carried out on Kharkiv City.

In terms of attacks the U.S. has been escalating while the last three Iranian retaliatory strikes remained roughly the same size.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇯🇴⚡️- Visual confirmation of the moment Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Dozens of interceptors can be seen being launched in an attempt to intercept the incoming projectiles.

Iran missiles are now launching on retaliation for U.S. tomahawk strikes on Iran earlier

Other targets were 5th fleet in Bahrain again and some American bases in Iraqi Kurdistan

For the first time Iranian missiles targeted Jordan. This is after a warning to them for intercepting Iranian drones and missiles in previous attacks and acting as a proxy for Israel in the conflict

Iranian missile launch

That is some serious GPS jamming going on

Recap for today Iran shoots down an Apache in the strait U.S. launches airstrikes Israel continues bombing Lebanon Iran promises retaliation I expect this one will be a wider one including the gulf states but still limited in scope

More than a dozen launches from Iran from multiple missile bases. We're seeing the same decentralized launch authority patterns as we did during the war, clearly been activated by Iranian leadership Targets appear to be Israeli military positions Party looks to be back on

We have launches from the Houthis in Yemen. I think these retaliation plans were laid out in advance and we're activating the next rung

Israeli strikes were a step up from the amount of Iran's in terms of proportion but still limited and also using standoff munitions I would expect to see a larger Iranian retaliation later today probably towards evening in Tehran