Ukraine War Analysis
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A deeper analysis of the war for those tired of the propaganda Also weekly summaries to help people follow the latest key developments https://t.me/UkraineWarAnalysisChat
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Channel Posts
Repost from AMK Mapping
Approximately 15 ballistic missiles were launched by Iran in this wave of retaliatory attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, targeting King Hussein International Airport and Muwaffaq Salti Airbase.
Most of the missiles were shot down by air defence, however some impacts were recorded at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase and possibly King Hussein Airport.
| 2 | — 🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱 PBS Reporter: ‘Does Iran want to destroy Israel?’
IRGC Brigadier General Naqdi: ‘We are not saying we are going to nuke them, OK? But yes, we would certainly prefer the Zionist regime to permanently cease existing.’
@Middle_East_Spectator | 332 |
| 3 | 🇷🇺🇸🇾⚡- Syria and Russia have signed a memorandum of understanding outlining the future of Russia’s presence at Hmeimim and Tartous following 18 months of negotiations.
Under the agreement, Syria will gradually take control of civilian facilities, including Hmeimim Airport and parts of Tartous Port, while Russian military installations will be transformed into joint Syrian-Russian training and qualification centers.
The transition is expected to be completed within three months. | 338 |
| 4 |  The Ukrainian Air Force confirms that not a single missile was shot down by Ukrainian air defence overnight, due to Ukraine being completely out of Patriot interceptors. | 412 |
| 5 |  +3Changes on the frontline in Ukraine for July 2026:
Yellow = Russian advances
Light blue = Ukrainian advances
Russian advances:
Donetsk Oblast: ~204.4 km²
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: ~65.6 km²
Kharkiv Oblast: ~57.9 km²
Sumy Oblast: ~52.6 km²
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: ~6.0 km²
Luhansk Oblast: ~0.7 km²
Kherson Oblast: ~0 km²
Total: ~387.2 km² (up by 62.23% compared to June)
Ukrainian advances:
Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: ~52 km²
Donetsk Oblast: ~41 km²
Zaporizhzhia Oblast: ~10.4 km²
Luhansk Oblast: ~5.5 km²
Kharkiv Oblast: ~5.1 km²
Sumy Oblast: ~3.3 km²
Kherson Oblast: ~0 km²
Total: ~117.3 km² (down by 49.67% compared to June).
Note: The main figures (not including the section below) covers net gains for each side. Ukrainian advances that took place on territory Russia occupied within this month will simply be subtracted from the Russian total, and vice versa.
Net changes overall (Russian advances minus Ukrainian advances):
+269.9 km² in favour of Russia (up by 4807.28% compared to June). | 351 |
| 6 | That settles it, countermeasures are only released on terminal approach to the target.
In other words it thought that field in Poland was its' target, meaning either a failure of guidance or incorrectly inputted coordinates | 367 |
| 7 |  The sound of a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile impacting near the village of Targowisko, eastern Poland, this morning.
In the video, you can hear the missile releasing two sets of flares as a countermeasure against air defence systems, confirming it was still intact up to one second before impacting the field. | 315 |
| 8 |  A large crater is seen in a field near the village of Targowisko, eastern Poland, after a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crossed into Polish territory and impacted. This village is around 105 km from the border with Ukraine.
Locals reported hearing an "exceptionally loud bang", with the blast wave almost blowing out their windows. One local stated that the explosion felt like an earthquake. Polish fighter jets and military helicopters flew over the village at around the same time. | 284 |
| 9 | This missile would likely have been headed to Lvov. In these cases it's usually a failure of onboard guidance or incorrect way points being programmed into the flight path.
It split off from a group of missiles that continued towards Lvov without obvious explanation | 263 |
| 10 | Getting flashbacks to the S-300 incident in Poland a few years ago.
The Scott Ritters of the world are probably going to make something up about Zelensky false flag radar reflecting balloons or something equally retarded | 245 |
| 11 |  Footage reportedly showing smoke rising over the village of Otrocz, eastern Poland, around 90 km from the Ukrainian border, after a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile entered Polish airspace and impacted. | 238 |
| 12 | I still dont know what happened to the Kh-101 cruise missiles in Poland. Their last recorded location on Ukrainian radars was 40km from the border, south of the Polish town of Chelm. They have not re-appeared on radars. | 267 |
| 13 |  After over 840 days of intense fighting, one of the longest and most important battles of the war in Ukraine has come to an end.
Chasiv Yar has officially fallen to Russian forces, with the last Ukrainian holdouts withdrawing from the southwestern part of the city sometime in the last week. Battles for Chasiv Yar began on April 4, 2024, with a Russian mechanised assault with BMPs into the easternmost houses of the Kanal Microdistrict.
The city has been erased from the face of the earth, suffering destruction at a higher rate than even Bakhmut (where fighting lasted for just 8 months, in comparison).
This withdrawal took place due to the collapse of Ukrainian defences in Kostyantynivka, which made defending this salient untenable. The fall of Kostyantynivka would have allowed Russia to cut the Ukrainians off. Withdrawals from neighbouring Mykolaivka, Chervone, and Podilske will likely take place in the near future. | 343 |
| 14 |  🇷🇺❌🇺🇦 — Video shows the moment when a Russian Pantsir-S1 air defense system shoots down Ukrainian FP-2 kamikaze drone just moments before it hits a Wildberries warehouse in St. Petersburg.
Wildberries is the largest Russian online retailer, the Russian equivalent of Amazon
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💧 Rainbet.com the #1 Non-KYC Crypto Casino & Sportsbook @rainbetcom
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@BellumActaNews | 329 |
| 15 | 🇺🇦⚡- BREAKING: Oleksandr Syrskyi has been removed from his post as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief.
Mykhailo Drapatyi has been appointed as the new chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. | 338 |
| 16 | I don't entirely agree with these takes. As we can see from videos they are still launching interceptors in ripple fire salvos and the Arabs are shooting them into the sky like retarded children on the 4th of July
What changed is a degradation of American early warning radars and giving the Iranians months to pause, restock and plan the next attacks with the addition of their newest most advanced missiles | 422 |
| 17 | This isn’t adapting.
Iran was just prioritizing depleting enemy interceptors before it decided to use its more advanced missiles.
Everyone knew this, and it’s been the plan all along. This ‘Russia’ and ‘China’ stuff is also cope. | 409 |
| 18 |  —❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇯🇴 WATCH: INSANE close up footage recorded by an American soldier shows Iranian missile impacts at Muwaffaq Salti Airbase, Jordan
@Middle_East_Spectator | 266 |
| 19 |  +1Overnight, Russia carried out the largest ever ballistic missile attack since the beginning of the war, targeting Kyiv.
According to preliminary figures, the following was used:
~ 38 Iskander-M ballistic missiles.
~ 6 Zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
Despite launching at least 16 (recently recieved) Patriot PAC-3 interceptors, only a couple of the ~44 missiles were shot down. The vast majority impacted their targets, resulting in large fires breaking out.
Video credit | 270 |
| 20 |  Due to recent advances, Russian forces have now established control over large parts of the tactical ridgeline between the Bakhmut-Siversk line and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Druzhkivka line, putting the last 3 cities of this so-called "fortress belt" at major risk.
With the battle for Kostyantynivka now in its final stages, Russia is developing an offensive in arguably the most crucial part of the entire frontline. Once they are able to capture the entirety of this ridgeline, all of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk will be within range of barrel artillery, and the battles for the cities will effectively start. This, combined with a push from Kostyantynivka and even the Dobropillya area, will be a major setback for Ukraine, and could mark the beginning of the end for these last Donbas cities.
Right now, special attention is being made by the Russian command on clearing the remaining heavily fortified Ukrainian positions between Siversk and Slovyansk, in order to complete their goal of capturing this crucial line of tactical heights. This will allow Russia to bring forward drone operators, barrel artillery, and MLRS to within range of new areas, and allow for deep DRG infiltrations, possibly as far as the eastern outskirts of Slovyansk-Kramatorsk itself.
At the same time, the fall of Kostyantynivka and the beginning of battles for Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka will pose a major threat to Druzhkivka, as the near-continuous and unbroken line of urban areas stretching from Kostyantynivka to Druzhkivka, and even to Kramatorsk, provides cover for additional deep Russian infiltrations.
As of now, forward Russian assault groups are just 5.5 km from the Kramatorsk Airport on the eastern outskirts of the city. The situation is critical, and without counterattacks, it will continue to massively worsen over the coming weeks and months. | 243 |
