Ukraine War Analysis

I waited until we got the actual text of the MoU because I found it hard to believe the leaks. But they were true, this deal is an abject humiliation for the United States That being said I don't see how this deal can hold without an Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon We'll see how long this holds. But even so the damage is done, it will take months to return to anything approaching normal traffic through the Strait. And years to get back to pre war levels

—❗️🇮🇱/🇱🇧 Netanyahu: ‘What we did in Gaza, we will do in Lebanon. Just like we secured the South of Israel, we will secure the North.’ @Middle_East_Spectator

Massive combined Russian missile and drone attack on Kyiv tonight. At least 22 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and several Zircon cruise missiles attacked the city. Several groups of Kh-101 cruise missiles are now flying there. Strikes have also been carried out on Kharkiv City.

In terms of attacks the U.S. has been escalating while the last three Iranian retaliatory strikes remained roughly the same size.

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇯🇴⚡️- Visual confirmation of the moment Iranian ballistic missiles struck Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan. Dozens of interceptors can be seen being launched in an attempt to intercept the incoming projectiles.

Iran missiles are now launching on retaliation for U.S. tomahawk strikes on Iran earlier

Other targets were 5th fleet in Bahrain again and some American bases in Iraqi Kurdistan

For the first time Iranian missiles targeted Jordan. This is after a warning to them for intercepting Iranian drones and missiles in previous attacks and acting as a proxy for Israel in the conflict

Iranian missile launch

That is some serious GPS jamming going on

Recap for today Iran shoots down an Apache in the strait U.S. launches airstrikes Israel continues bombing Lebanon Iran promises retaliation I expect this one will be a wider one including the gulf states but still limited in scope

More than a dozen launches from Iran from multiple missile bases. We're seeing the same decentralized launch authority patterns as we did during the war, clearly been activated by Iranian leadership Targets appear to be Israeli military positions Party looks to be back on

We have launches from the Houthis in Yemen. I think these retaliation plans were laid out in advance and we're activating the next rung

Israeli strikes were a step up from the amount of Iran's in terms of proportion but still limited and also using standoff munitions I would expect to see a larger Iranian retaliation later today probably towards evening in Tehran

Israeli retaliation strikes ongoing in Iran. We'll get target geolocations and see how thorough the strike package was. Clearly Israel is doing everything it can to blow the agreement up

In response to repeated Israeli airstrikes on Beirut, Iran launched at least 20 ballistic missiles and multiple Shahed-136 drones at Israel. Cluster munition impacts were recorded in multiple parts of Israel. Missiles were intercepted over southern Syria, Damascus, southern Lebanon, and Israel. The IRGC stated that it targeted Ramat David Airbase in northern Israel as well as other military targets. Trump has since had a phone call with Netanyahu, where he expressed discontent at Israel's strikes on Beirut where they didn't inform the U.S. beforehand, and said that he told Netanyahu not to retaliate against Iran.

From the red alert map I expect the target was infrastructure in western Haifa. During the last war that tended to be a zone where we didn't get a lot of footage. So far I've seen video of one interception. We're about to find out how badly Trump wants this ceasefire especially when the markets open tomorrow

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 WATCH: The IRGC Aerospace Force has released footage showing its ballistic missile launches towards northern Israel @Middle_East_Spectator

Missile launch from Iran in retaliation for US airstrikes today. This is the second confirmed ballistic launch from Iran.

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: An Iranian ship called ‘IRGC TOLL COLLECT’ has shown up in the Strait of Hormuz @Middle_East_Spectator