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20x daily insights by a wealth manager with passion to long-term stats, psychology investing and volatility management

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Over recent months, cybersecurity companies have been quietly posting some of the most impressive AI-driven growth rates. This has led to the Nasdaq CTA Cybersecurity Index being up approximately 55%, exceeding the AI-hardware-heavy NYSE Semiconductor Index’s gain near 42%. While the majority of coverage centers around AI-enabled cyberattacks and models going rogue, an underappreciated tailwind could actually be the growth driver for cybersecurity stocks. Gartner forecasts spending on AI-related cybersecurity will rise from $2.8 billion in 2026 to nearly $7.7 billion in 2028, representing a CAGR near 65%—a higher growth forecast than even AI chips. https://io-fund.com/cybersecurity-stocks/crowdstrike-record-results-ai-tailwind

Since the Fed Started Hiking, Multiple Expansion Has Nearly Vanished as a Source of PE Value Multiple expansion has collapsed
Since the Fed Started Hiking, Multiple Expansion Has Nearly Vanished as a Source of PE Value Multiple expansion has collapsed to just 8% of private equity value creation in 2025 from 40% before the Fed began raising rates. Value now has to be built rather than repriced, which rewards managers disciplined on entry price and focused on operations. Apollo https://go2.apollo.com/e/1047283/ity-value-creation-report-2026/4bth2/617587357/h/D9nX8ZEIYl_eML1ditiK4U1cgCsJcrV8EaLnwIUA57I

TSM INSIDERS ARE LOADING UP MASSIVELY ON STOCK... Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM just saw an insane wave of insider buying... prob
TSM INSIDERS ARE LOADING UP MASSIVELY ON STOCK... Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM just saw an insane wave of insider buying... probably the most I've seen by any company right now On September 2 alone: 1) CFO Jen-Chau Huang: $8.44M 2) Deputy Co-COO Kevin Zhang: $8.44M 3) SVP & GC Shu-Hua Fang: $8.44M 4) Multiple SVPs: $5.35M each 5) Multiple VPs: $3.40M each The transactions shown total over $80 MILLION in insider buys. INSANE! Shu-Hua Fang followed up on September 4 with a discretionary purchase of another 2,000 shares...

Kramer “Interesting stat I had Claude run... The S&P 500 is up 10%+ for a fourth straight year. Only four runs have gone this
Kramer “Interesting stat I had Claude run... The S&P 500 is up 10%+ for a fourth straight year. Only four runs have gone this long since 1940. One made it to five. All ended the same way: a down year. Calendar declines: -12%, -7%, -10%, -1%, -19%. Peak to trough: -30%, -15%, -49%, -14%, -25%. Does 2027 make it six?”

S&P 500 P/E ratio down to 19.4x
S&P 500 P/E ratio down to 19.4x

Market regime for various sectors $XLK $GDX
Market regime for various sectors $XLK $GDX

The S&P 490 & the biggest 10 stocks' P/Es have converged. Tightest in a decade JPMAM
The S&P 490 & the biggest 10 stocks' P/Es have converged. Tightest in a decade JPMAM

Women gained all of the new jobs since January 2025.
Women gained all of the new jobs since January 2025.

The S&P 500 is up 12% YTD with a 9% drawdown... we are pacing for an extremely normal year. JPMAM $VOO
The S&P 500 is up 12% YTD with a 9% drawdown... we are pacing for an extremely normal year. JPMAM $VOO

Cybersecurity is the runaway winner in software this year, gaining +85% YTD $CIBR $HACK
Cybersecurity is the runaway winner in software this year, gaining +85% YTD $CIBR $HACK

Tech P/E drifts further down to 20.5x @dualityresearch $XLK
Tech P/E drifts further down to 20.5x @dualityresearch $XLK

After falling -80% from its record high, Nike, $NKE, will be removed from the S&P 100 at the end of this month, ending a near
After falling -80% from its record high, Nike, $NKE, will be removed from the S&P 100 at the end of this month, ending a near 18-year run in the index. The stock has now erased -$230 billion in market cap since its all time high. A collapse for the history books.

$NBIS
$NBIS

At the start of the year, analysts were forecasting 15% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026. The current project: a 34% i
At the start of the year, analysts were forecasting 15% earnings growth for the S&P 500 in 2026. The current project: a 34% increase, which would be unprecedented growth this far into an economic expansion (6 years). $VOO

for the the S&P 500 as a whole, it was a historic quarter, with the biggest upside surprise in history (52% YoY earnings grow
for the the S&P 500 as a whole, it was a historic quarter, with the biggest upside surprise in history (52% YoY earnings growth vs. 23% expected entering the quarter) and a new record high for net profit margins (17%). $VOO

Nvidia’s net profit margin of 66% so far this year is another all-time high. $NVDA
Nvidia’s net profit margin of 66% so far this year is another all-time high. $NVDA

Translation: the rate the hikes are coming. The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed hike at the September 16 meeti
Translation: the rate the hikes are coming. The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting, with the odds going up to 70% by the October meeting and 85% by year-end.