Blanc Charts

Countertrend rally vs New UpTrend

MS keeps the capex map high for 2027

The next phase of the AI boom will look different from the first. J.P. Morgan expects the benefits to spread from companies building AI infrastructure to businesses using it. In sectors like financials and health care, AI will change how much work employees can get done.

On the Nov 5 Q1 FY27 earnings call, $IREN CEO Daniel Roberts said they deliberately haven't acquired 100% of the GPUs needed for next year. He framed it as "right-way risk": “if financing stays tight and industry construction/execution remains challenging, GPU prices could fall due to insufficient power points, preserving optionality while prioritizing infrastructure.”

Cantor Fitzgerald following $IREN EARNINGS: “The irony of mid-terms is that the sell-off is based on fewer data centers getting built which, in our mind, increases demand for existing capacity, of which IREN is well-positioned.” This is exactly what I’m thinking. Let’s see if I Cantor (and myself) be correct on this take

Gurgavin has a point

GOLDMAN SACHS: KOREAN SEMICONDUCTORS ARE PRICED FOR A 70% EARNINGS COLLAPSE Goldman's valuation model suggests the #KOSPI semiconductor sector is trading at a P/B multiple consistent with earnings 70% below forward consensus. Its scenario analysis shows: • Earnings -90% → 62% downside • Earnings -70% → 9% upside • Earnings -50% → 68% upside • Consensus unchanged → 182% upside These are model-implied valuation scenarios, NOT price targets. The market is applying an extraordinary discount to Korean semiconductors. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, Nov. 6.

🇺🇸 MCG Tech MCG & Tech relative performance slipped just below its long-run trend channel. It has rebounded sharply from around this level five times since 2024. The odds favor an overweight $XLK

Morgan Stanley: We would highlight Sandisk, where at the current share price of $835 and buybacks in the range of 50% of revenue, they could repurchase >50% of the company between now and the end of 2028…We like to see most of valuation to be based on the current cycle, rather than paying a multiple on frothy numbers - we think that as stocks come down we are at that view. We like both Sandisk and Micron roughly equally at current levels. $MU $SNDK

Morgan Stanley out with a long note this morning (80 pages)… they still expect hyperscaler capex to hit $1.6 trillion in 2027 $TCAI

Wall Street Courrier: Technology stocks have had a brutal month, but the warning signs appeared before the correction. Our short- and mid-term Market Health scores had already turned negative as the underlying market structure weakened. Since the sector entered Risk-Off on October 29, it has lost 12.7%. Not every deterioration leads to a correction. But every correction starts with weakening market structure. Both scores remain negative, indicating that weakness still dominates the sector's underlying signals. A sustained V-shaped recovery therefore looks unlikely until these scores improve. $XLK

TrendRating: more upgrades than downgrades in US and Europe. Doesn’t look good at all in Asia

$TQQQ intra year performance is brutal, and not for everybody. However, over the last 10 years it proved to be highly lucrative. I don’t know many investors who can watch -80% in one year without stress, as it wipes out previous 400% gain. However, in case we will see a massive dump and TQQQ will drop 50-60%, its a tactical play. A milder version of it is $QLD, Nasdaq x2, and it outperforms TQQQ over the last 2 years (+34% vs +26%). Nasdaq itself is +28% btw. The danger of levered ETFs

Hedge funds dumped AI stocks at the fastest pace in 5 years. Question - is it really all changed in one month? Nothing was a concern a month ago and now it’s all over?

Friday was only the 6th time in $QQQ history where · QQQ followed a -6% day with a session where · It never touched the prior day's high or low And how did QQQ do going forward after the past events? Not so good

First things first, the OG @StovallCFRA has shared this for years, so shout out to him for this one. It took 23 trading days for the S&P 500 to be down 5% from the Oct 6th ATH. Sam found that most bear markets started with a quick move down 5% from ATHs. In fact, only one bear market ever (34% in late '60s/early '70) took longer than 23 trading days to hit down 5%. Could this go into a full fledged bear market? Of course it could, but for now we don't expect that and this suggests don't panic just yet. $VOO

Giving Credit: tech sector CDS pricing has gone from rising to spiking post-midterms. There is a mini panic underway in tech stocks as AI stock bubbles bursting in China and Korea have begun to ripple across to the USA, along with concerns that the Dem sweep may present a less friendlier regulatory backdrop for the AI theme. But one curious thing to note is that this indicator has now reached the highest point since the global financial crisis. Sign of things to come? (…or Sign that markets are overreacting?) $XLK

Deja vu all over again: for the bears it couldn’t get much better or simpler than this — a possible replay of 2018 (when the previous Trump presidency also saw R’s lose the House to D’s). Back then it was a combination of Trade War, Fed Rate Hikes + Government Shutdown that sank markets. This time? Similar stuff: possible Fed rate hike in Dec, Federal funding deadline, possibly more on trade and geopolitics (along with the recent rattles in AI). $VOO

What was ahead in terms of further damage? Well, a big variety of outcomes

However Thursday's Nasdaq-100 decline included a 6.4% fall in a single session. That gives us another feature of this correction to compare: at least one daily closing loss greater than 5%, after the peak and on or before the first qualifying close. A sell-off that happens later cannot qualify an earlier episode. Of the 17 eligible episodes, 6 also pass the daily-loss filter. All 6 were still less than 20% below their peaks at the starting close. 4 of those 6 entered a bear market within 30 calendar days: 67%, against 29% in the broader sample. The four were 1990, 2000, 2020 and 2025, and each crossed within eleven calendar days. The other two, 1997 and 2011, recovered their original peaks without a bear-market close. No additional filtered case crossed later.