Blanc Charts

Tech rotation ahead? $XLK

How long do rotations out of Tech last? DB says since mid-2024 the average is 67 days and the median 59 days, and on average the mega-cap growth and tech cohort sees a -16.6% drawdown (median -14.6%), so we're still relatively early in this rotation if that's what we're seeing.

Per BTIG’s Jonathan Krinsky on recent SOXX performance: “We can find only two prior occurrences when SOXX fell seven straight days, then gaped down at least -1% or more like it did today. Twice in '02: 9/23 + 9/24/02 - SOXX would rally ~10% from the 9/24 open over 3 days, then fall -33% over the next few weeks that finally bottomed that bear mkt (2.5 years after peak). -10/10/08 - SOXX would rally ~20% from that open to the high 3 days later, then fall -38% over the next few weeks and mark the low for that bear in semis (SPX made new lows in March '09).”

The 3x Long Semiconductor ETF $SOXL is on pace for its largest ever week of net inflows - Bloomberg

That would be interesting if more funds would be cornered But if they are not levered, why would they have any problem?

BMO Capital Markets has raised its long-term copper price forecast 47% to $16,000 a metric ton in real terms, or $18,000 nominal by 2030. For 2027, BMO forecasts $14,675, Macquarie $12,750 and BMI $12,900. Deutsche Bank sees $10 a pound, or $22,050 a metric ton, in the second quarter of 2027. BMO puts the US stockpile at close to 2 million metric tons, about a year of American consumption. - Mining.com

U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by 582,000, a record 63% gap.

Fastest growing Asian countries Who knew about Kyrgyzstan?🇰🇬

… and the contribution from semiconductors is still relevant now

…but earnings outlook remains very strong, UBS says

Earnings are decelerating

hundreds of thousands of new AI-related jobs have already been created.

$NBIS this move looks like July moves, will be interesting to see if the stock drops further and at which level there will be the reversal

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y yields are down today

here’s an interesting study on the timing of profit margin peaks and stockmarket peaks. While the stockmarket often peaks ahead of the economy, it turns out that profit margins peak ahead of stocks in many cases (the table suggests around 1-2 years).

Reminder from Nov 2025 correction

- There has been a drawdown in 100% of years, yet the average annual return has been ~10% - The red dots are exactly why you dont invest short-term money (largest annual drawdown) - The black bars are exactly why you invest long-term money (annual return) - There have been more years with 25%+ returns (11) than TOTAL down years (10). - Stocks have been down in 11 years out of 46. Or positive about 75% of the time. - A 30% + drawdown has happened 5 times. Yet people try to predict this as if it will happen every year.

SPX might repeat March sell-off pattern Matso $VOO

2018? October: The S&P 500 declined ~7% as rising treasury yields and hawkish Fed expectations contributed to a sharp drop in equities. November: The midterms produced a divided Congress. The political stability caused an immediate relief rally and the S&P500 ended the month ~2% higher. December: The relief rally didn’t last long. The Fed hiked again in December and projected more hikes into 2019. US-China trade tensions were high. Political noise picked up post-midterms with threats of a government shutdown and partisan investigations. The S&P 500 fell ~9% in December and reached its 2018 low on Christmas Eve, briefly entering bear market territory. Anything sound familiar? Overall, the S&P 500 fell ~14% during Q4 2018 despite the historically bullish midterm seasonality. I’m not saying this scenario will definitely play out, but the similarities to 2018 are too big to ignore, and we should be prepared. Political seasonality becomes much less reliable when yields and macro conditions are pushing in the opposite direction.