Blanc Charts

$IEF iShares 7-10 year treasuries ETF is -5.5% YTD

$IWM in a very high risk regime, associated with losses, Wall Street Courrier

TrendSpider: Welcome back to Stage 2 🟢 $META

S&P 500 P/E ratio: 19.1x Below both the 5yr and 10yr averages... near the March low. Only 1 figure above the Liberation Day low @dualityresearch $VOO

...and S&P&500 is now cheaper both vs 10 and 5 years average valuation

All but one sectors in the S&P500 became cheaper this year $VOO

AI dependents. "Some firms' revenue is almost existentially tied to the capex decisions of one or two players. Here's a chart showing the top five companies' revenue dependence on the ecoverse." $TCAI

Data center capacity. "This chart in particular is incredible."

SPX EPS growth vs. Semis margin. "S&P 500 earnings growth in the next few years will be highly sensitive to the trajectory of semiconductor margins." $VOO $SOXX

Q3 earnings. Analysts' earnings estimates for Q3 were revised up again this week, by 1.6% (vs. 1.4% last week, 1.2% prev).

Tech vs. yields. "For all quarters since 1988 when bond yields rose, S&P 500 technology stocks outpaced at an average annualized pace of 12.14% compared to underperforming at an average annualized pace of -4.46% during all quarters when bond yields declined."

Buyback window. "Buybacks are heading into blackout ... One of the market's largest structural buyers is stepping aside during exactly the window when the calendar is weakest." This aligns with the historical data that the recovery in the indices starts around October 10th

Foreigners vs. US equities. "Over the past 12 months, foreigners purchased a record $941.9 billion in US equities! This includes $139.6 billion in US equity purchases by foreign official accounts over the past 12 months." So much for "Skip the US"

Bond fund flows. "A net $625 billion poured into US bond mutual funds and exchange-traded funds this year through August, the most for that stretch in Morningstar Inc. data going back to 2010."

Trump Pressure Index. There is “a good chance that Trump will choose an offramp soon now that pressure is clearly building (Trump TACO/Pressure indexes are the highest since March).”

TL;DR: Turkey’s regulator just liquidated 131 defaulted funds after a cross‑investing scheme collapsed, hitting 353k+ retail investors and ~$18.3bn; the flagship Tera money‑market fund (TP2) secretly funneled cash into related‑party paper and repos against now‑worthless small‑cap shares, turning “60% risk‑free” yields into a technical default now being wound down by state lender İşbank. ❗️ Turkey’s most popular money‑market mutual fund has defaulted Turkey is facing an unprecedented crisis in its collective‑investment industry. Regulator SPK has ordered the forced liquidation of 131 funds that cannot redeem investors, affecting over 353,000 retail clients and more than $18.3bn (890bn lira). The most shocking element is the collapse of Tera Portföy’s flagship money‑market fund (TP2). Funds in the Tera group held $7.5bn (366bn lira) in assets, the bulk in this liquidity fund. 🔍 What happened? Privately run managers, formally compliant, built a hidden cross‑investing scheme: fund money was channelled into securities of affiliated companies and friendly holdings. Buying illiquid shares with investor cash artificially inflated valuations; for example, Katılımevim’s stock rose ~2,000% from IPO to a peak on 28 August 2026. This let aggressive funds post extraordinary returns—Pusula’s two main funds were up 164% and 144% in the first seven months of 2026—drawing in masses of new investors. Late‑August SPK rules capping concentrations of illiquid stocks then triggered a sharp fall in those assets. Tera TP2, marketed as “risk‑free” with ~60% annual yield (the best in the country), secretly invested in commercial paper of related parties and placed cash in reverse repos collateralised by third‑tier shares that rapidly became worthless and illiquid. The result was a technical default from a cash‑flow gap; state lender İşbank is now managing the fund’s forced liquidation.

JP Morgan on Oil BREAKING: For the first time since the Iran war began, JPMorgan says it no longer has a baseline view on oil, writing "we simply don't know how to model the endgame," and that the assumption that the Middle East disruptions are temporary is "becoming increasingly difficult to sustain," per JPMorgan Global Research. The bank says it had assumed there were economic red lines the Trump administration would be unwilling to cross, and that six months later "many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more."

Mega-caps holding in there, but the average stock is not looking great so far in September

GS: Because equity prices have failed to keep pace with surging earnings, near-term valuations show no hint of a bubble: The S&P 500 12-month P/E ratio has declined from 23x a year ago to 19x today, and now matches its 10-year average. $VOO