/CIG/ Telegram | Counter Intelligence Global

📢 🇦🇷 🇮🇱 Argentine President Javier Milei on X: AM ISRAEL JAI (The People of Israel Live) 📎 Javier Milei

🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- "All foreign military forces operating within our sovereign territory must withdraw immediately. In particular, Eritrean forces operating in Tigray must leave Ethiopian territory without delay," - Ethiopia's Ministry of Communication.

🇪🇹🇪🇷 - Eritrean Defense Forces in Idaga Hamus, Adigrat direction, northern Tigray region. Note, a lot of videos and photos circulating allegedly showing Eritrea's military in northern Tigray are old.

🇪🇹🇪🇷⚡- BREAKING: AFP and DW have both confirmed that Eritrean troops have crossed the border into Ethiopia. Both outlets cite local sources and state Eritrean forces were spotted in the Adigrat area, the Tigray Defense Forces stronghold.

🇸🇾🇮🇶⚡️ — Syria is preparing to provide Iraq with an overland route for crude exports, allowing Iraqi oil to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by truck to a Mediterranean port, Bloomberg reports. Syrian Petroleum Co. CEO Yousef Qiblawy said the deal is nearly finalized, with the first convoy expected by mid-October. The two countries are also discussing the rehabilitation of the long-defunct Haditha-Baniyas pipeline, with work potentially beginning early next year.

🇺🇸 Deeply Distressed US Loans Rise to Highest Level Since Pandemic, JPMorgan Says The deeply distressed tail of the leveraged loan universe has grown to levels not seen since the beginning of the pandemic, with technology the single biggest sector under pressure. That’s according to strategists at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who on Tuesday wrote that the value of loans trading below 60 cents on the dollar, or deeply distressed levels, rose to $65 billion from $40 billion a year ago, to the highest since March 2020. Distressed leveraged loans, or those trading at or below 80 cents on the dollar, are also on the rise, totaling $139.8 billion, a nearly 90% jump over the past 12 months and just $4 billion shy of a high in May 2020, strategists including Nelson Jantzen wrote in a report. There are now about 141 leveraged loan issuers trading below 80 cents on the dollar, 35 more than a year earlier, with names including software providers CDK Global, QLIK Technologies Inc., and Quest Software among the biggest contributors. The biggest concentration of distressed loans is in the technology sector at 39%, with a total of $54.4 billion, according to the report. Software companies are facing an increasingly challenging refinancing environment as a wall of more than $100 billion of maturing debt is approaching. The sector came under pressure this year with concerns mounting that advances in artificial intelligence would disrupt businesses offering software services. In the riskiest part of the leveraged loan market, returns on CCC loans, the lowest tier of junk, are down 1.97% year-to-date, compared with gains in every other junk-rated category, according to JPMorgan. On the high-yield bond side of distress, spreads on debt rated CCC have jumped above 1,000 basis points, the highest since the 2023 regional banking crisis when investors dumped risky debt. Yields on CCC bonds have climbed to 15.58%, the highest since November 2022. 🔗 https://unwall.app/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-06/deeply-distressed-us-loans-rise-to-highest-level-since-pandemic

🇯🇵 The Bank of Japan keeps shrinking its balance sheet, adding to bond market pressure: Bank of Japan total assets fell another ¥15.5 trillion (-$98 billion) in Q3, bringing the year-over-year decline to ¥70.8 trillion (-$445 billion). Total assets on its balance sheet are now down to ¥625 trillion ($3.95 trillion), the lowest level since March 2020. Since the Q1 2024 peak, the BOJ has shed ¥131 trillion, or -17.4% of its total assets, equivalent to ~$825 billion. Japanese Government Bond holdings fell by ¥14.3 trillion in Q3 alone, the largest quarterly decline since QT began, down to ¥504 trillion, their lowest since 2020. At the same time, the BOJ has raised its rates by 1.25% after its first hike in March 2024, suggesting QT has become a much more important tightening tool. The impact is increasingly visible in long-term yields, with the 10-year JGB yield at 3.10%, its highest since 1996, and the 30-year yield at 4.21%, near the highest on record. The BOJ continues pulling liquidity from the system. 🔗 Global Markets Investor

🇻🇪🛢 Venezuela's Cardón refinery in Punto Fijo, Falcón state, processing 310,000 barrels/day caught fire and exploded yesterday. The blaze was extinguished within an hour after explosions and an evacuation. No injuries were reported. 📝: Oil refineries across the Americas have been running at full capacity nonstop for the past 4-5 months to make up for the loss of Middle Eastern refineries and have pushed back scheduled maintenance to parts of the facilities. Operating this long at full capacity simultaneously risks creating a scenario where multiple oil refineries suffer fires or explosions at the same time or in quick succession leading to a huge sudden loss of fuel output potentially causing fuel shortages but most certainly leading to higher gas & diesel prices. @CIG_telegram

🛢🚢 The cost of hiring an oil tanker on the benchmark trade route has soared to $1.33 million per day, the most expensive in history 🔗 Barchart

🇨🇩🇰🇪🦠 The Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo has spread to Kenya Kenya has confirmed its first case of Ebola virus disease, involving a Kenyan citizen who had been living in the Democratic Republic of Congo. Health officials are now tracing contacts as well as passengers and crew members who were on the same flight. 🔗 BBC News Africa (@BBCAfrica)

🇪🇹⚔️🇪🇷 Ethiopia officially accuses Eritrea of sending troops into Ethiopian territory and demands their withdrawal. “All foreign military forces operating within our sovereign territory must withdraw immediately,” Enatalem Melese, Minister of the Government Communication Service, told Bloomberg. “In particular, Eritrean forces operating in Tigray must leave Ethiopian territory without delay.” Eritrean Information Minister Yemane Gebremeskel didn’t respond to questions about Ethiopia’s allegation. Instead, he accused Ethiopia of laying the groundwork for a war aimed at seizing the strategic Red Sea port of Assab, saying Addis Ababa is seeking to portray its long-standing ambition for sea access as an act of self-defense. “The Ethiopian regime’s overarching strategy in the past months has revolved around re-packaging its three-year old agenda of war and aggression against Eritrea in ‘self-defense’ terms,” he said. “The final destination is Assab. This is the backdrop of all the accusations.” 🔗 https://unwall.app/www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-07/ethiopia-accuses-eritrea-of-incursion-demands-troop-withdrawal?srnd=homepage-europe

🇪🇷🇪🇹⚔️🇪🇹 Eritrean troops have been spotted driving through the town of Idaga Hamus, south of the Adrigrat triangle, a section of the Tigray region under the occupation by the Eritrean Army since the Tigray War. Coordinates: 14°11'32.12"N 39°33'40.88"E @CIG_telegram

🇧🇷♨️ The 2026-2027 El Niño event will cause a historic drought in the Amazon River Basin Water is a cornerstone of the Brazilian economy and society, underpinning both productive sectors and social well-being in multiple ways. In the power sector, hydroelectric plants are responsible for more than half of the country’s electricity generation. In agriculture, dependence on rainfall is equally pronounced: only 13% of farmland is irrigated, making stable and sufficient water supply essential for crop productivity. The agriculture sector plays a central role in Brazil’s economy. In 2024, it accounted for 5.5% of the gross domestic product (GDP), and when considering the broader agribusiness production chain, its contribution reached almost 24%. Globally, the importance of Brazilian agriculture is equally significant: in 2024, Brazil was the largest producer of soybeans, coffee, orange juice, and sugar; the second-largest producer of beef and chicken; and the third-largest producer of corn and cotton. A striking feature of Brazilian agriculture is its dependence on rainwater. In 2022, only 13% of agricultural land was irrigated, leaving most production highly exposed to fluctuations in precipitation. This dependence has already translated into considerable economic losses. According to the National Confederation of Municipalities (Confederação Nacional de Municípios – CNM), between 2013 and 2022, the country lost an estimated US$ 34 billion in crops and US$ 12 billion in livestock due to drought. Brazil’s waterway network plays an increasingly vital role in national logistics and commodity exports. All hydrographic regions have recorded growth in cargo movement, with the Amazon and Paraguay regions standing out. Between 2010 and 2023, soybean and corn transport via waterways increased by 782%, and ports in Arco Norte saw grain exports grow between 70% and 80% between 2020 to 2024. The federal government has also announced plans to expand the potential of Brazilian waterway infrastructure to lower freight costs for commodity exports. However, reoccurring droughts have negatively disrupted grain transport via the waterway network. During the 2020/2021 drought, the Tietê-Paraná waterway fell to critical levels, leading to the interruption of transport on its rivers. In 2023, the drought in the Amazon reduced the volume of grain transport by about 40%, requiring cargo to be rerouted to the South and Southeast. In 2024, the Madeira River reached a record low of 25 cm in depth, leading to the interruption of operations at the port of Porto Velho. That same year, Hidrovias do Brasil suffered significant losses—estimated at US$ 114 million—due to drought conditions in the North and South corridors. In other words, a drought in the Amazon River Basin will disrupt Brazil's exports leading to higher prices and potentially even shortages, of soybeans, corn, cocoa beans, sugarcane and coffee. Anything that is transported by barge on the Amazon or its tributaries will be affected including Brazil's lithium exports and other minerals and metals it extracts from the Amazon rainforest. Soybean is mainly used to make soybean feed used to feed pigs, poultry, cattle and farmed fish. Disruptions to the soybean market will reflect in the prices of pork, beef, chicken and fish meat. The Amazon river according already lost 50cm of draft in the last 7 days alone. 🔗 https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/when-the-river-runs-dry-how-amazon-deforestation-threatens-the-brazilian-economy/

🌪⚠️🛢 Chevron evacuates some workers from Gulf of Mexico platforms at risk of storm Chevron ‌said on Tuesday it was ​transporting non-essential ​personnel from its ⁠offshore platforms ​in the Gulf ​of Mexico as a possible tropical ​storm approached ​the US Gulf Coast. "Production ‌from ⁠Chevron-operated assets remains at normal levels," it ​added ​in ⁠a statement. "At our onshore ​facilities, we ​are ⁠following our storm preparedness procedures." 🔗 https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-evacuates-some-workers-gulf-mexico-platforms-risk-storm-2026-10-07/

🌪⚠️🛢 Tropical depression forms in the Gulf, could become a "dangerous hurricane" before landfall in the U.S., NHC says 📝: In the hurricane's path are 4 refineries: the Marathon Garyville, LA, refinery, the Shell and Valero refineries in Norco, LA and the Chevron Pascagoula MS refinery. @CIG_telegram

🇺🇸⚔️🇮🇷 U.S. Vicepresident, J.D. Vance tells Iran it must "make a meaningful reduction" of its uranium enrichment capability for the U.S. to maybe end the war Vance has tried to assert himself as the U.S' leading negotiator with Iran but, according to him, the biggest problem he encountered is uncertainty in who makes decisions in Tehran Vance said the US was in talks with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi. But ​it was unclear how much authority they wield within Iran's power structure, he said, after joint US-Israeli strikes at the start of the war killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. "One ​of the things we picked up on is it's not totally clear how their country makes decisions," Vance said. Separately, Trump said on Tuesday his "biggest problem" is no one knows who is running Iran. Iran's ‌Foreign Ministry ⁠spokesman said on Sunday that US officials are well aware of who their Iranian counterparts are and how Iran's decision-making system works. "The problem is actually the opposite: it lies in the contradictory positions and mixed messaging from US officials," Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference. Iranian president Pezeshkian and foreign minister Araqchi are well known moderates/reformists, a camp within the Iranian political spectrum infamous for tolerating every insult and humiliation coming from Washington in exchange for American/Western European acknowledgement and the perfidy with which the US directed negotiations with Iran only for the U.S. to still attack Tehran has permanently ruined any political support the reformists/moderates may have had from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Araqchi was hit the other day with a motion to have him dismissed from the Iranian government for "unauthorized meetings" with U.S. officials on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York City. The one that authorizes these meetings is the Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC. 📝: Trump and Vance "don't know" who makes decision in Iran because those people do not want to talk to them and only want one thing: revenge. 🔗 https://www.reuters.com/world/interview-us-vice-president-vance-says-iran-must-cut-enrichment-end-war-2026-10-06/

🛢 Tanker captains are being paid the equivalent of $100,000 a month, plus a $50,000 bonus per trip, to sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the Financial Times reported, as shipowners push to keep Gulf crude moving despite Iranian attacks striking 2% of all vessels in the third quarter of the year. Ordinary sailors, who can start at $1,500 a month, earn at least four to six times their usual rate for each transit. Most come from poorer communities in the Philippines, India and Indonesia, as well as Russia, Ukraine and eastern Europe. Some crew are being pressured rather than paid. Manoj Yadav of the Forward Seamen's Union of India told the FT that owners threaten to replace sailors who refuse, and deduct the cost of sending them home from their wages. "If they won't agree, they may lose their job. If they agree, they may lose their life," he said. At least 93 ships have been hit and 24 sailors killed since February 28, according to the International Maritime Organization. 🔗 https://www.ft.com/content/0d665e5b-d8c8-4f1e-acf5-bba7193b4e6e?shareType=nongift

🇲🇱🇷🇺❌🏴-The Malian military alongside Russia’s Africa Corps have captured Kidal in northeastern Mali after FLA/JNIM rebels withdrew their forces from the town. @GeoPWatch

🇾🇪❌🇸🇦 – The Houthis claimed additional ballistic missile attacks against Abha International Airport and the Khamis Mushait airbase. Combined missile and drone attacks were also conducted against Al-Dagher camp and Al-Mawsim in Jizan, and the Aakifa camp in Asir. @GeoPWatch

⚡️⚡️🇺🇸 The U.S has announced a large sum of maritime investments today following the announcement of Anduril Industries’ ‘Arsenal-2’. The highlights include: • The Republic of Korea pledging to invest $150 Billion into American shipbuilding (rehabilitating and building the disused and deindustrialized Philadelphia Navy Yard) • $25 Billion in new orders for the U.S Coast Guard including a new fleet of 20-25 next-generation cutters, 7 new ‘large, heavy duty’ Icebreakers • Over $70 Billion in new warship orders, including new orders for additional Arleigh Burke-class Flight III Destroyers, new Virginia-class submarines, etc. • Plans for nuclear-powered container ships & tanker ships. @Medmannews