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🇳🇱❌🇺🇸 The Netherlands' biggest retirement pension fund, ABP, sold most of its UST holdings in the last 18 months. The fund, which invests on behalf of civil servants and workers in education, has also cut its holdings in US government bonds from €19 billion to €4.6 billion since last November and from €29 billion 18 months ago. Shareholdings in US-based companies were also cut by 10% to a total of €101.8 billion, after the fund sold shares in Nvidia, Microsoft and Apple. The latest figures reflect the position at the end of the first quarter of 2026. The three companies’ share prices have fallen in the last six months but not by as much as the reduction in ABP’s holding – it currently has €4.6 billion in Nvidia shares, compared to €9 billion six months ago. A spokesman said it was more attractive to hold government bonds in euros than foreign currencies, partly because of the rules around the new Dutch pension structure. Its figures for November showed that most of the €10 billion it sold in US government bonds had been reinvested in Germany, accounting for €6 billion, and the Netherlands. 🔗 https://www.dutchnews.nl/2026/07/abp-pulls-more-us-bonds-largest-share-of-fund-now-in-europe/

🇩🇪 The AfD has opened a commanding lead in eastern Germany, reaching 43% in a new Forsa poll. The Left Party follows on 16%, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU on just 13%. Across Germany, the AfD leads the CDU/CSU by 28% to 21%. Meanwhile, 85% of voters are dissatisfied with Merz’s performance. 📎 Europa

🇫🇷 Marine Le Pen would win the 2027 French presidential election in every second-round scenario tested, according to the latest Toluna Harris Interactive poll for M6 and RTL. She leads the first round with 35–38% across all configurations. Jean-Luc Mélenchon sits on 16–17% and is positioned to reach the runoff if the centre remains divided. 📎 Europa

🇮🇷⚔️🇺🇸 IRGC Spokesman says If the US does not accept Iran’s conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will under no circumstances be reopened. • He says all hostile warships have moved at least 400 kilometers away from the Strait of Hormuz. From both a military and territorial standpoint, no vessel is capable of passing through this waterway without Iran’s permission and management. • The waterway near Oman is also fully under our control. • Strait of Hormuz belongs to Iran & Oman. Negotiations with Oman have reached outcomes accepted by both sides. • In the negotiations, agreements were reached regarding each country’s share of the strait’s waters, as well as Iran’s and Oman’s respective shares of the revenues generated from it. - Tasnim 🔗 Arya

🇮🇱⚖️ Israeli judges acquitted an Ultra-orthodox Jewish settler who assaulted a French nun near King David's Tomb in Jerusalem last April. The court accepted the settler's defense which claimed that he was "in a psychotic state" and therefore, not legally responsible. He was sentenced to a psychiatric hospital instead of prison. @CIG_telegram

🇺🇸‼️ - The U.S. military is preparing for the potential execution of Maj. Nidal Hasan, the former Army psychiatrist sentenced to death for the 2009 Fort Hood mass shooting. ▶️ Hasan was heard shouting “Allahu Akbar” before opening fire inside Fort Hood’s Soldier Readiness Processing Center, killing 13 people (12 U.S. soldiers and one civilian) and wounding more than 30 others. ▶️ He was convicted in 2013 of 13 counts of premeditated murder and 32 counts of attempted premeditated murder and sentenced to death. ▶️ In September 2025, the Secretary of War Hegseth requested that President Donald Trump approve Hasan’s execution. If carried out, it would mark the first U.S. military execution since 1961.

🇫🇷🗳 A new French election poll shows the rightwing Marine Le Pen and the far-left Jean-Luc Mélenchon obtaining the most votes in the 1st round in most cases. The only scenario in which Mélenchon is beaten by the former prime-minister and Macronist candidate, Édouard Philippe, is when the social-democrat candidate, Raphaël Glucksmann, isn't on the ballot, which is unlikely as Glucksmann is expected to announce his intention to run for president in the coming weeks. The only way for Emmanuel Macron to avoid his nightmare scenario: a runoff between Le Pen/Bardella and Mélenchon would be to convince former premier, Gabriel Attal and former minister of the interior, Bruno Retailleau, to not run for president in order to improve Philippe's odds. However, Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon are the two most popular politicians in France. The legacy Macron is leaving behind after his decade-long tenure is a polarized French society with a majority of French citizens rejecting centrist parties in favor of the far-right and far-left. @CIG_telegram

🇫🇷 French far-left presidential candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, promises, if elected president, to force the European Central Bank (ECB), to cancel France's debts The far-left presidential contender would essentially have the European Central Bank agree to waive interest payments on a massive tranche of French bonds. Speaking on a stage set above water at a lakeside conference center in Châteauneuf-sur-Isère, on the outskirts of the city of Valence, the France Unbowed leader struck a prophetic tone as he fired up thousands of his supporters with a subject more often associated with grey suits and glass corridors than tub-thumping rallies: the European Central Bank and its holdings of France’s public debt. “The French economy was teetering on the brink of recession; now it is about to plunge,” Mélenchon said. “The European Central Bank can and must freeze [European] governments’ debt, starting with the debt incurred during the Covid-19 pandemic,” he added, doubling down on an idea he first floated earlier this summer with another temperature-themed metaphor, when he promised to “set fire” to debt held by the Eurosystem — the overwhelming majority of which sits with the Bank of France. The Eurosystem, which comprises the ECB and the currency area's national central banks, owns around one-sixth of French debt, totaling some €600 billion. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu called it a “scam in its purest form.” Jordan Bardella, president of the far-right National Rally, slammed the proposal as “nonsense.” Former European Commissioner Thierry Breton penned an op-ed against it. Mélenchon’s rivals can hardly dispute the subject’s importance: With public debt amounting to more than €3.5 trillion, or 117.5 percent of GDP, the issue has become a top concern for voters. The country’s indebtedness is already threatening to derail Lecornu’s efforts to rein in its deficit. France is among the countries hardest hit by a global surge in borrowing costs. A loss of confidence in the government's ability, or willingness, to repay its bonds could make investors shun them, making it impossible for Paris to raise the cash needed to run the country. As the race for next year’s presidential election heats up, Mélenchon’s debt proposal has driven the country’s political conversation. It has also underscored something his rivals are painfully aware of: The leftist veteran is ready for battle, when most of them are still trying to gather their armies. The EU treaties forbid the ECB from bailing out eurozone countries — even if the bank has found ways to intervene at the height of the eurozone crisis, when its then-President Mario Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the euro, and again during the Covid crisis. A unilateral move by France — “disobedience” was how Mélenchon’s top lieutenant Manuel Bompard put it during an hour-long conference on the subject on Saturday — would not only freak out investors, critics argue, but call into question the fundamentals of the eurozone. “He does it brilliantly, but he's talking nonsense,” Economy Minister Roland Lescure said on the France television channel BFM TV. Tampering with the Bank of France's balance sheet, he argued, would amount to “leaving the euro because you're saying you no longer respect the rules of the common home.” 🔗 https://www.politico.eu/article/jean-luc-melenchon-tosses-a-debt-bomb-into-frances-presidential-debate/

🇫🇷 French 10 year bond is the highest its been since May 2009 in the middle of the Eurozone crisis. @CIG_telegram

🇫🇷⚡️- Due to the latest polls confirming a likely second turn between Mélenchon (immigrationist far-left) and Le Pen (right-wing statist) for the 2027 French presidential election, France's top CEOs are preparing contingency plans for a total collapse of the French private sector by 2032.

🇫🇷⚡️- Around two French companies out of three are at risk of bankruptcy if there is no major reform during the next presidential term, according to a poll conducted among dozens of thousands of business owners.

🇪🇺⛽️ Every day, a new 52-week high for European natural gas. Europeans now pay 8.6 (!) times more for natural gas than Americans. And the bidding war with Asia to fill storage sites for next winter has not even started yet. 🔗 Karel Mercx

🇺🇸🚜🌽 FT: US grain farmers face worst crisis in decades as Iran war sends costs spiralling “This is the worst financial downturn in the sector since the 1980s,” said John Hansen, president of Nebraska Farmers Union. A recent study by the American Farm Bureau Federation, an industry group, found that, without government assistance, farmers growing nine principal crops — including corn — will lose 31bn this year and 32bn in 2027. Faith Parum, an economist with the AFBF, said losses for corn producers would stand at $131 per acre this year, rising to $167 in 2027. For soyabeans, the figure is $80 per acre in losses this year and $138 next year. She said 2027 would mark the sixth year of negative returns for most major row crops in the US. 🔗 https://unwall.app/www.ft.com/content/acb64e29-a3ce-4282-82b0-6b7b5dd4f63e

💵 The US will sacrifice the dollar to save the bond market. It doesn't matter who is in power or how tough they act... When push comes to shove, they will always choose to print to save the bond market. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan put it best: "The US can pay any debt it has, because we can always print money to do that." Greenspan = Powell = Warsh = the next Fed Chair Just look at the poor fellow next to him as he slowly realizes... We all don't own enough hard assets for what's coming. 🔗 Lukas Ekwueme (@ekwufinance)

🇷🇺⚔️🇺🇦 Two Russian KAB glide-bombs struck the bridge connecting the western suburbs of Slavyansk to the town of Bylbasovka, resulting in minor damage. Two small craters appeared in the middle of the bridge. It remains passable for all vehicles. This is the 4th bridge struck in Slavyansk since the beginning of August. Coordinates: 48.84637, 37.52821 🔗 AMK Mapping 🇳🇿 (@AMK_Mapping_)

🇺🇦⚔️🇷🇺 Situational update on the Krasny Lyman direction: The Ukrainian counterattacks north of Krasny Lyman are now entering their fourth month, as they come closer and closer to cutting off the Russian salient. Two pincers have been formed, which are both dangerously close to cutting the Russians off. In the western part of the salient, Ukrainian assault groups have entrenched in the southern part of Shandrigolovo and are engaged in fierce battles for the main part of the village. Other forces have resumed assault operations from the north following earlier unsuccessful attacks, and are approaching the village from the north. This has prompted the Russian command to initiate a partial withdrawal from their bridgehead west of the Nitrius River, with Ukrainian forces recapturing the now largely empty positions in and around Yarovaya, Alexandrovka, Karpovka, and Korovy Yar. This new, much more limited bridgehead will still apply pressure to Krasny Lyman from the north, and will be easier to withdraw from if they are unable to repel the Ukrainians from Shandrigolovo. Shortening the line of contact will allow Russia to re-allocate troops to more important parts of the sector, and help maintain the bulk of this crucial northern flank to Lyman. Further east, Ukrainian forces continued their gradual advance south of Novoe, pushing south along the tactical heights and recapturing a series of important strongpoints situated along the high points, following several weeks of fierce and costly battles. Russia is now heavily bombing all of these lost positions with KABs to try prevent a further advance. From there, reinforcements are being sent in for deeper penetrations towards the northern outskirts of Kolodyez, as well as further east towards Ivanovka and the western bank of the Zherebets River. If any further consolidation in this area is achieved by Ukraine, Russia will likely be forced to withdraw not only from their bridgehead west of the Nitrius River, but also from a large portion of the fields and tactical heights between the Nitrius and Zherebets Rivers, which they captured during a multi-stage offensive in 2025. Furthermore, Ukrainian forces continued their counterattacks from the south, which have so far yielded them less success due to stronger Russian positions and constant Russian counterattacks. As a result of recent fighting, they were able to clear the rest of Stavky and nearby fields from earlier Russian infiltrations, reinforcing their thrust to the north into the forested gullies west of Kolodyez. These actions remain infiltrations for now, and a large grey-zone with intermingled and overlapping positions has formed in this area. As of now, the closest point between Ukrainian pincers in the eastern part of this salient is around 6.2 km wide. The corridor between forward Ukrainian assault groups is just 2.6 km wide, however. 🔗 AMK Mapping

🛢 Kpler identified 17 tankers carrying approximately 11.76 million barrels of liquids eastward through the Strait of Hormuz for the past week between August 19 and 25. Recorded daily volumes were low across the week: ▪️ August 19: 4.71 million barrels ▪️ August 20: 2.58 million ▪️ August 21: 1.82 million ▪️ August 22: 1.59 million ▪️ August 23: 1.03 million ▪️ August 24: zero ▪️ August 25: 31,000 barrels The crossing data remains provisional. Kpler notes that its figures can change as vessel-position data becomes available, meaning these identified transits should not be treated as the entirety of physical flows through Hormuz. TankerTrackers meanwhile identified at least 20 ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday. The first 15 involved 25 million barrels of crude plus refined products from nearly every regional producer except Iran. Five more were later found, including one involving Iranian LPG. 🔗 DropSite

⚫️ 🇺🇸 📉 Black births 2010-2024: Cook County (Chicago) down 50%. Los Angeles County down 45%. New York is down 40%. 78% of decline in blacks births in LA and Chicago (coincidence) is because of a decline in TFR, and 22% from a decline in the key population. 📎 Smirkley

💰 🌍 ⛏️ Since 2012, gold production has risen at both ends of the Sahel, with Mali in the west also becoming a major sub-regional hub for gold exports - including both illicitly produced gold and legitimate exports. Resource-rich areas of Central and East Africa are also assuming an important role in the region’s gold economy and – much like the Sahel – are becoming well integrated into transnational smuggling networks. This changing geography of gold production means that major gold-mining areas increasingly overlap with unstable and conflict-affected regions. The latest IISS Research report introduces a new matrix framework that benchmarks vulnerabilities and preparedness for tackling illicit gold mining and trafficking across ten countries in the Amazon basin, Southeast Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2026/06/mapping-risk-and-resilience-in-the-global-illicit-gold-economy/ https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/online-analysis/2026/07/beyond-blood-gold-understanding-the-spectrum-of-illicit-gold-conflict/ 📎 IISS