Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

📊 PondyOxides --- The next leg of growth may be bigger than the last one For years, Pondy Oxides was largely seen as a lead recycling company. FY26 changed that picture. Revenue grew 45%, while EBITDA and PAT more than doubled. Over the last five years, PAT has compounded at 67% annually. But the more interesting part is what management is building next. 1. Lead capacity is ready for the next jump Lead recycling capacity has expanded from 1.32 lakh tonnes to 2.04 lakh tonnes. Against FY26 sales of around 1.01 lakh tonnes, management is targeting 1.25–1.30 lakh tonnes in FY27, supported by new customers and products. This means much of the required capacity is already in place. The next step is utilisation. 2. Copper is becoming the second growth engine Copper recycling capacity was doubled from 6,000 to 12,000 tonnes during FY26. Management expects 8,000–9,000 tonnes from the existing recycling business in FY27, giving copper a much larger contribution to the overall business. 3. Copper cathode is the real re-rating trigger POCL is setting up a 36,000-tonne copper cathode facility in two phases. The first 18,000-tonne phase is expected by December 2026, with the project funded through internal accruals. Management expects copper cathode EBITDA per tonne of around ₹60,000–70,000, compared with ₹35,000–40,000 from the existing copper business. FY27 may see only an initial contribution. FY28 should reflect the more meaningful full-year benefit. 4. Moving from volumes to value addition Value-added products already contribute around 65% of lead revenue. POCL manufactures niche customer-specific alloys, allowing it to earn better premiums than regular recycled lead. This was visible in Q4, when lead volumes moderated but EBITDA per tonne increased 43%. 5. Plastics turnaround and Mundra optionality The relocated plastics unit has turned PAT positive, and management expects it to remain profitable in FY27. The company also plans to begin work on its Mundra project during FY27. Mundra and newer recycling verticals provide optionality, although management has not yet provided detailed financial guidance. 6. Growth without large balance-sheet stress FY27 capex is expected at ₹180–200 Cr, largely towards copper and downstream integration. Management does not plan to take long-term debt for the announced expansion and is targeting working-capital days below 45. That becomes important as the business scales. 7. Target 2030 remains ambitious Management is targeting: • 15%+ sustained volume growth • 20%+ revenue CAGR • EBITDA margin above 8% • ROCE above 20% • Value-added contribution above 60% The company is gradually transforming from a lead recycler into a diversified, value-added non-ferrous recycling platform. Short-term trigger: The record date for the stock split is July 21. Every 2 shares of ₹5 face value will become 5 shares of ₹2 each. The lower post-split price can improve liquidity and retail participation, which may keep the stock’s all-time high in focus in the near term. But the split itself does not create value. The bigger triggers remain the lead ramp-up, copper cathode commissioning and margin improvement through value-added products. Key watchpoints: project execution, imported scrap availability and working-capital control. Not a recommendation.

CRDMO | Segment-Wise Industry Map Key Highlights - Five distinct segments - Different growth profiles - Different entry barriers - Segment selection matters Small-Molecule CDMO - Largest market opportunity. - Slowest growth segment. - India's core strength. - Companies: Divi's, Laurus, Neuland, Cohance. Biologics CDMO - Fast-growing global market. - High technology barriers. - India's capability gap. - Companies: Syngene, Anthem, Aurobindo, Laurus Bio. Peptides & GLP-1 - Fastest-growing segment. - GLP-1 demand accelerating. - Purification remains bottleneck. - Companies: Divi's, Neuland, Laurus, Gland. Discovery CRO - Early-stage drug research. - Sticky customer relationships. - Funding cycle sensitive. - Companies: Syngene, Sai Life, Anthem. Complex & Specialty CDMO - Highest entry barriers. - Premium margin business. - Qualification takes years. - Companies: Cohance, Piramal, Gland, Concord, Blue Jet. Segment Comparison - Growth: Peptides > Biologics > Complex > Discovery > Small Molecules. - Barriers: ADC/Biologics > Peptides > Complex APIs > Discovery > Commodity APIs. Key Takeaway - CRDMO is not a single business model. The best long-term opportunities lie in high-growth, high-barrier segments such as peptides, GLP-1, ADCs and biologics, where companies can sustain stronger pricing power and profitability.

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Corona Remedies CFO Says Multi-Specialty Portfolio Brings In 40-45% Revenue - NDTV PROFIT Introduce 6-8 New Products Each Year

RPG LIFE SCIENCES | Growth Outlook Key Highlights - Domestic growth outperformed - Specialty therapies accelerated - API plant restarted - Expansion pipeline strong Business Updates - Domestic formulations grew 18.2%. - Industry growth around 10%. - Nephrology grew 55%. - Rheumatology grew 40%. - Oncology grew 23%. - API plant fully operational. - API margins target 30%. - Cardiology entry planned. - Urology launches planned. - Five CDMO projects underway. - Naprosyn approved in Canada. - Walmart rollout awaited. - New export registrations progressing. - Virtually debt-free balance sheet. - Cash exceeds ₹275 crore. Key Takeaway - RPG Life Sciences is building multiple growth drivers through specialty therapies, API recovery, new therapy launches, CDMO expansion and exports, while maintaining a strong balance sheet, though execution remains the key monitorable. Disclaimer: This post is only for educational and learning purposes. No Buy, Sell or Hold recommendation.

Finally, the much awaited approval has come through for Dixon ! Dixon has executed the JV agreement with Vivo Mobile India, as Vivo has also received Government of India approval under Press Note 3 for incorporation of the JV. This was one of the key pending triggers for Dixon. The JV will be held 51% by Dixon & 49% by Vivo, and it will undertake part of Vivo’s smartphone OEM orders in India. Guidance also becomes interesting now. Excluding the Vivo JV, Dixon had guided for FY27 REV of around 56,000 Cr, implying 15% growth. Mobile smartphone volumes were expected to remain broadly flat at around 32-33 Mn units, excluding Vivo. But including the Vivo JV, the opportunity becomes much larger. Management had indicated that Vivo can add incremental REV of 15,000-20,000 Cr on an annualised basis. It can also add around 20-22 Mn smartphone units annually, taking the total smartphone run-rate to around 55-57 Mn units. That said, markets had already discounted this development, as the stock is already up around 18% over the last month.

DIGANT HARIA OF GREENEDGE WEALTH SERVICES Gold Prices Have Stabilised, Expect Gold Financiers To Do Well Not Positive On Housing Financiers As Growth Picks Up, Expect Margins To Be Under Pressure FII Selling Has Impacted Private Bank Returns 25 bps Rate Hike Won't Impact NBFCs Much, Continue To Prefer NBFCs Over Banks

KUMAR RAKESH BNP PARIBAS Q2 expected to be better for TCS Macro uncertainty and tech spending to support Q2 Companies are experimenting with pricing and revenue models Outcome-based pricing makes token pricing difficult to predict Nifty IT looks attractive at 27,000 levels Nifty IT looks expensive at 30,000 levels

NBCC | FY27 Outlook & Growth Guidance Key Highlights - FY27 project awards at ₹20,000 crore - Execution book to reach ₹58,000 crore - FY29 profit target raised - Strong order pipeline ahead Management Guidance - Expects to award projects worth ₹20,000 crore during FY27. - Projects under execution are expected to reach ₹58,000 crore. - Currently executing 7 Government Redevelopment (GPRA) projects. - Ghitorni redevelopment project is likely to commence in FY27, with revenue expected to start after about two years. - Targets ₹2,000–2,500 crore net profit by FY29. - Expects fresh order inflows of ₹40,000–50,000 crore during Q3–Q4 FY27. - Management highlighted an industry-wide shortage of skilled labour, partly attributing it to state government welfare/freebie schemes. Key Takeaway - NBCC remains optimistic on its medium-term growth outlook, backed by a strong execution pipeline, robust order inflow expectations, multiple redevelopment projects, and an ambitious FY29 profit target, although labour availability remains a key execution challenge. Disclaimer: This post is only for educational and learning purposes. No Buy, Sell or Hold recommendation.

KAYNES: ET NOW INTERVIEW CO SAYS MARGINS WILL INCREASE AND ORDER BOOK WILL BE STRONG GOVT DUTY CUT WILL BOOST GROWTH

If someone had invested Rs 5 Lakh in Vedanta in April 2020 at Rs 70 per share Most people were scared to invest in April 2020. Markets had crashed. COVID was everywhere. Panic was at its peak. But those who stayed calm and invested won big. Vedanta's stock went from Rs 70 to Rs 773 before demerger They have paid Rs 263 as total dividend from 2020 to 2026 1 Vedanta became 5 separate companies 7142 shares purchased at ₹70 for ₹5 Lakh Dividend received: 7142 shares x Rs 263 = Rs 18,78,346 Capital appreciation: 7142 shares x ₹773 = Rs 55,20,766 Total wealth created = Rs 50 Lakh plus The stock market rewards patience and courage to hold

AVIVA Signs agreement to acquire the remaining 26% stake in Aviva Life Insurance Company India To buy the 26% stake from Dabur Invest Corp Agrees to acquire full ownership of its India joint venture Says the financial impact of the deal is not material Current joint venture agreement to be terminated upon completion of the transaction

BOROSIL RENEWABLES DEAL? CNBC-TV18 EXCLUSIVE | SOURCES SAY Co In Preliminary And Exploratory Talks For A Strategic Investment Promoters May Divest Part / Full Stake If Talks Proceed, Fructify Deal Could Value Company At Lower Than Current Market Valuation No Certainty That A Deal Will Result From Talks SEBI Yet To Send Payment Order In Co-Location Case Alert: Anti-dumping Duty Overhang Weighing On Valuations Alert: Duty Expires December 2029 Alert: Borosil Renewables Has Not Yet Responded To CNBC-TV18's Queries

IVF INDUSTRY | CDSCO Tightens ART Consumable Supply Regulatory Change • Supplies restricted to registered clinics. • CDSCO issues nationwide directive. • Registration verification now mandatory. • Covers IVF media and reagents. Industry Impact • Unregistered clinics face restrictions. • Registered clinics largely unaffected. • Compliance becomes key differentiator. • Supply-chain traceability improves. Market Structure • India has 2,000+ IVF clinics. • Market valued at $1.4 billion. • Over 4,268 clinics registered. • Industry formalisation accelerates. Patient Impact • IVF treatment costs largely unchanged. • Media forms small cost component. • Quality and safety oversight improves. • Accountability across clinics increases. Key Takeaway The CDSCO directive is expected to formalize India's IVF ecosystem by restricting critical laboratory supplies to registered ART clinics, strengthening patient safety, regulatory compliance and supply-chain transparency without materially increasing treatment costs.

INDIA POWER | Peak Demand Seen at 300 GW by 2027 Power Demand Outlook • Peak demand seen at 300 GW. • Current peak demand at 271 GW. • Available capacity reaches 284 GW. • Demand driven by AI and EVs. Capacity Expansion • Total capacity rises to 445 GW. • Non-fossil capacity reaches 291 GW. • Solar capacity climbs to 137 GW. • Solar grows over 50x. Storage Becomes Critical • Energy storage termed national priority. • Supports round-the-clock renewable supply. • Enables peak-hour power availability. • Essential for clean energy transition. Growth Drivers • Data centre expansion. • Artificial intelligence infrastructure. • Electric vehicle adoption. • Rapid electrification across sectors. Key Takeaway India has significantly expanded generation capacity, but the next phase of the energy transition will depend on scaling energy storage to reliably meet rising demand from AI, data centres and EVs.

JOSE V, COCHIN SHIPYARD Current order book stands at 26,000 crore Targets 12-15% YoY growth going forward Defence orders remain a priority with a 50:50 export-domestic mix Targets 2,500 crore ship repair business over the next 3 years Plans 2,500 crore capex over 3 years and ₹6,500 crore over 5 years Expects to achieve 15% growth within the next couple of years Aims to distribute 50% of profits as dividends

🔥 Twenty companies with market cap upto ₹30K crores which have return ratios (ROCE and ROE) > 20% - (I personally have invested in few of these, some of which have already become multi-baggers) 1) Cemindia Project (ITD Cem) ⚡️ 2) Jyothy Labs ⚡️ 3) Elecon Engineering ⚡️ 4) Engineers India ⚡️ 5) Action Construction ⚡️ 6) TD Power Systems 7) Shriram Pistons ⚡️ 8) Rubicon Research 9) Sanofi India 10) Zen Technologies ⚡️ 11) Cello World 12) Newgen Software 13) Bombay Burmah ⚡️ 14) Jain Resource ⚡️ 15) IEX 16) Caplin Point 17) BLS International ⚡️ 18) Gravita India 19) Indegene ⚡️ 20) Tilaknagar Industries ⚡️ Companies with PEG < 1 are marked at ⚡️

SEAMEC | FY27 Could Be Bigger Than FY26 India's Offshore Cycle Is Improving India's offshore oil & gas activity is gaining momentum as energy security becomes a key priority. Rising offshore investments, Mumbai High redevelopment and continued OALP auctions are expected to increase demand for offshore support services. Unlike exploration companies, SEAMEC provides inspection, maintenance, repair and subsea support services that remain essential throughout an offshore field's lifecycle. FY27 Has Multiple Growth Drivers Several fleet additions are expected to contribute for a full year in FY27. - AGASTYA available for full-year operations. - Samudra Sevak contract commenced. - Samudra Prabha joins long-term O&M. - ANANT expected to join fleet soon. - ONGC contracts improve revenue visibility. These additions provide a stronger earnings base than FY26. Industry Tailwinds Remain Favorable Management highlighted that offshore vessel availability remains tight, supporting a healthy operating environment over the next few years. - Vessel supply remains constrained. - Pricing environment remains supportive. - Fleet utilization remains high. - Revenue and PAT growth guided at ~15%. - EBITDA margins guided at 40–42%. Strong Competitive Position SEAMEC benefits from significant entry barriers in offshore services. - Long-standing ONGC relationships. - Proven offshore execution record. - Large Diving Support Vessel fleet. - International business gradually expanding. - Technical expertise limits competition. Key Risks To Monitor Execution remains the primary monitorable despite strong industry tailwinds. - Paladin remains stranded in Dubai. - Dry docking may impact utilization. - Geopolitical risks remain elevated. - Fleet execution will be critical. Key Takeaway SEAMEC enters FY27 with a larger operating fleet, long-term contract visibility and supportive offshore industry dynamics. If execution remains strong, FY27 has the potential to surpass FY26 and become another record year.