Fundamental Analysis (Long term)

WOCKHARDT | FROM TURNAROUND TO A POTENTIAL NEW GROWTH STORY Wockhardt is becoming a very different pharma company. It has moved away from US generics and is increasingly focusing on: Novel Antibiotics + Insulin/Biologics + Existing Pharma Business FY26 already showed the change: Revenue +11% | EBITDA +51% | EBITDA Margin 18.6% The base business itself is getting healthier. THE BIG BET: NEW ANTIBIOTICS Wockhardt is developing new antibiotics for difficult bacterial infections. Why does this matter? Bacteria are increasingly becoming resistant to existing antibiotics, creating a growing need for newer treatments. This is where Wockhardt has built one of its biggest R&D opportunities. ZAYNICH — THE KEY ASSET Zaynich is designed for serious infections caused by drug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria. It has received US FDA and India approvals. So the investment question has changed: ❌ Will Zaynich get approved? ✅ How much can Zaynich sell? This is potentially Wockhardt's biggest new earnings driver. IT IS NOT ONLY ZAYNICH Wockhardt has several antibiotics targeting difficult bacterial infections: • Foviscu → difficult/ESBL Gram-negative infections • Miqnaf → bacterial pneumonia • Emrok / Emrok-O → difficult Gram-positive infections • Odrate → complicated urinary infections Foviscu has completed Phase III, while the other programmes are at different stages. So this is not simply a one-drug story. It is a portfolio of specialised antibiotics. SECOND ENGINE: INSULIN & BIOLOGICS Another major opportunity is Biologics / Insulin / Biosimilars. FY26 biotech revenue reached: ₹697 Cr | +27% Insulin production was doubled, while Glargine output was also substantially increased. The pipeline includes: • Insulin analogues • Biosimilars • GLP-1 products So Wockhardt potentially has a second growth engine alongside antibiotics. THE EXISTING BUSINESS MATTERS Wockhardt isn't simply waiting for Zaynich. Its existing businesses are also growing, particularly in the UK and emerging markets, while overall profitability has improved sharply. The result: EBITDA Margin: 18.6% A healthier existing business provides a stronger base from which to launch newer products. WHAT CAN CHANGE EARNINGS? Zaynich commercialisation → Growth in antibiotic portfolio → Insulin/biologics scale-up → Stronger cash generation → Lower debt The biggest monitorable by far: Can Zaynich turn approval into meaningful sales? WHAT CAN GO WRONG? The biggest risk now isn't simply R&D. It is execution. A drug can be approved but still take time to gain adoption. And antibiotics are meant to be used carefully, which can limit volumes. Other risks include: • Regulatory/quality risks • Pricing pressure • Slow commercial adoption • Difficulty converting profits into cash THE CRUX Wockhardt has moved from: US Generics Problems → Business Clean-up → Improving Profitability → Building New Antibiotics → Zaynich Approval Now comes the most important phase: Can Wockhardt convert its R&D into commercial success? Zaynich = Biggest Opportunity Insulin/Biologics = Second Engine Existing Business = The Base For investors, the equation is simple: Potential → Sales → Profits → Cash That's the Wockhardt story from here. No Recommendations, just sharing what I learnt in a simple way. Do your own studies. 📝

FOCUS on The GOOD THINGS, And The Good Things Will Follow.

How Sona Comstar Plans to Make Money in This Vertical ? Three Distinct Revenue Streams Novelic Acquistion was strategically important. Sona already had the body - while Novelic added an important piece of the sensing and perception layer. But capabilities alone don’t create shareholder value. The next question is much more important: How does Sona actually intend to monetise these capabilities? This is where the strategy becomes interesting. Sona is not looking at Robotics & Physical AI as one single business. Instead, it appears to be building three different ways of participating in the value chain starting with components, moving into perception and engineering, and eventually moving towards complete robotic systems. 1. Components & Subsystems: Start With What Sona Already Knows The most straightforward opportunity is to supply the critical hardware that robotic platforms need. This includes gearboxes, motors, actuators, AMR drive units, frameless motors and sensing components. In other words, Sona can sell the building blocks that allow a robot to move and interact with its environment. This is also where the strategic logic is strongest. Sona does not need to build an entirely new manufacturing ecosystem for robotics. The precision-engineering capabilities behind its existing automotive products—precision forging, gear grinding, motor manufacturing and high-accuracy assembly—can potentially be adapted to robotic applications. For example, a gearbox used in an EV drivetrain and a precision reducer used in a robotic joint may serve very different applications, but both demand extremely high manufacturing precision.A gearbox for an EV differential may operate at roughly 9:1 reduction, while a humanoid hip joint could require 100:1–160:1 reduction with near-zero backlash. The application changes, but the underlying disciplines—precision, repeatability, material quality and tight-tolerance manufacturing—remain highly transferable. This is the core of Sona’s hardware-convergence thesis: the engineering capability is not being built from scratch; it is being adapted to a new end market. Sona has already indicated its first order in this area: an advanced robotics subsystem for a robotics OEM, with SOP expected in H2 FY27. Management expects the business to have an EBITDA margin profile broadly similar to its existing precision-component business, at around 25–30%. So this first revenue stream is relatively easy to understand: take existing capabilities, adapt them for robotics, and sell them to robotic-platform companies. This is potentially the lowest-risk way for Sona to enter the market because it requires the least departure from its existing business model. But the more interesting opportunity begins when Sona moves beyond hardware. 2. Perception and ER&D: Monetising What Novelic Brings This is where the Novelic acquisition becomes directly relevant. A radar sensor by itself is only a piece of hardware. The real value comes from the ability to interpret the information that sensor generates. For a robot, that could mean understanding where an obstacle is, how far away it is, whether it is moving and how the robot should respond. This requires perception algorithms, embedded software and specialised engineering. Sona can potentially monetise these capabilities through ER&D (Engineering Research & Development) services and perception solutions for robotics companies. This is an attractive model because it is relatively asset-light. Instead of building another factory, Sona can leverage the engineering talent and technology platform it has developed through Novelic and work with customers that need specialised radar and perception capabilities. The first signs of commercialisation are already emerging, with an order for a radar perception stack for an AMR application, with SOP expected in Q2–Q3 FY27. If this business scales, its economics could also be quite different from manufacturing. This segment may have potential EBITDA margin profile of around 35–45%, reflecting the higher value of specialised engineering and software. But there is an important caveat. This is still ultimately a talent-driven business. The ability to scale will depend on whether Sona can attract and retain specialised engineers and convert project-based engineering work into a repeatable business. And then comes the most ambitious part of the strategy. 3. Full-Stack Platforms: Build the Robot The third revenue stream takes Sona much further away from its traditional business. Instead of supplying components to a robotics company, Sona is also exploring the possibility of building complete robotic platforms, initially focusing on AMRs for manufacturing and warehouses and cobots for industrial applications. This is where the different pieces of the strategy begin to come together. An AMR can combine Sona’s motor and drive capabilities with Novelic’s radar and perception technology, alongside motion-planning software, AI orchestration, fleet management and other software capabilities. Sona has already demonstrated an AMR prototype at CES 2026, and development of the production platform is continuing. The important point is not simply that Sona is building a robot. It is that Sona is trying to move from being a component supplier to becoming a systems player. That changes both the opportunity and the risk. A component business requires manufacturing excellence. A complete robotics platform requires manufacturing, software, AI, system integration, deployment, customer support and the ability to operate in a much more complex competitive environment. This segment is expected to have a lower initial EBITDA margin profile of around 15–22%. But the potential attraction is that a successful installed base could create additional revenue opportunities through software, fleet management, maintenance and services. What makes this architecture interesting is that these are not three completely separate bets. They build on each other. Sona can begin by supplying the hardware, add sensing and perception through Novelic, provide engineering and software capabilities, and eventually use those capabilities to build complete robotic systems. In simple terms, the ambition is to move slowly from component supplier → technology provider → systems player. That progression is strategically logical. But investors should also recognise that each step up the value chain increases the execution risk. Selling a gearbox is something Sona already knows how to do. Selling an autonomous robot to a factory is an entirely different challenge. So the strategy makes sense on paper. The next question is whether the market opportunity is large enough and whether Sona can capture enough of it to actually move the needle on the company’s overall financials.

GMM Pfaudler vs HLE Glascoat vs Standard Glass Lining , mapping the comarison and business profiles

As an investor, these are the actions I find worth tracking. Not just when a company sells more of what it already knows. But when it notices where the consumer is heading and gets there early. The interesting businesses are often hiding in plain sight. Sometimes, they start with something as ordinary as a packet of chips

Those are the questions that matter. If the answer to those questions is yes, this could become much more than another product in Parag's portfolio. It could become a high-frequency consumer business sitting on top of two powerful trends: protein and snacking. They have been been to scale the new age businesses of whey protein and Pride of Cows, so that gives some confidence.

That is why I am watching what Parag does with Avvatar Masala Chips. Protein chips in familiar flavours. 10g protein in a 30g pack. No - added sugar, palm oil or preservatives. On paper, it checks a lot of boxes. But I'm not convinced yet. Because launching a product is easy. Getting someone to buy it again is the real test. Will it taste good? Will people find the price reasonable? Will it be available everywhere? Will consumers actually make it part of their routine? And, eventually, can Parag make good money from it?

Then quick commerce entered the picture. Blinkit. Zepto. Faster discovery. Easier trial. And, importantly, repeat orders. The company went from being a small Shark Tank pitch to a business valued at much higher levels. Reports have put its valuation above ₹1,100 crore, while Aman Gupta's early investment has been reported to have grown from around ₹12 lakh to roughly ₹40 crore. The exact numbers are less important to me. The lesson is what matters. You don't always have to invent something new to build a big business. Sometimes you just have to make an existing product a little better. Better ingredients. Better positioning. Better distribution. Or simply a better reason for the customer to choose you.

People snack frequently. And when they find something they like, they don't buy it once. They come back for it. This reminds me of Let’s Try Foods. When the brand appeared on Shark Tank India in 2021, it looked like a small namkeen company entering a market already dominated by names like Haldiram’s. Ashneer Grover questioned whether it could really compete. But Let’s Try had one simple difference. It used 100% groundnut oil. No maida. No added preservatives. The product wasn't revolutionary. The thinking behind the product was. And that was enough to give consumers a reason to try something different.

Protein is no longer something only fitness enthusiasts talk about. It is slowly becoming part of everyone's food. Your daily meals. Your office snack. Your child's lunchbox. Your 4 PM craving. That’s where this gets interesting. Milk and ghee are huge categories for Parag. But snacking has something different going for it.

Sometimes, the most interesting moves by a company are the ones that don't look very important at first. Parag Milk Foods launching Avvatar Protein Masala Chips is one such move that caught my attention. At first glance, it’s just a new snack. But look at the larger picture. India is snacking more, while at the same time people are becoming more conscious about what they eat.

PARAG MILK 12 Lakhs snack bet that became 40 Crores with ₹1,100 Crores revenues in 4 years. Now Parag Milk is betting on a similar snack opportunity. Here is why I think this could be one of the Balaji Wafers moments in healthy snacking category

GE Shipping’s capital allocation offers a great lesson in counter-cyclical investing. During the shipping downcycle, the Company expanded its fleet from 32 vessels in FY16 to 48 vessels in FY18. Then, when the cycle improved and cash flows surged, it did not blindly chase growth at elevated asset prices. Instead, it used the upcycle to deleverage, bringing borrowings down from ₹6,213 Cr in FY18 to ₹1,087 Cr in FY26. Management describes this philosophy perfectly: “We invest countercyclically and then we collect cash and now we are waiting for the opportunity to invest.” - FY27 Q1 Concall In simple words: Buy when assets are cheap. Hold cash when assets are expensive.

KALYANI CAST TECH | FROM CONTAINER MANUFACTURING TO INTEGRATED LOGISTICS Kalyani Cast Tech is no longer trying to remain just a container manufacturer. Three recent developments show where the business wants to go next. 👉 ICD + LOGISTICS EXPANSION CBIC has approved the company’s proposal to establish an Inland Container Depot (ICD) at Shivlakha, Kutch. The company will also inaugurate its Gati Shakti Cargo Terminal, flag off its first bulk-salt train and lay the ICD foundation stone on 14 September. The scale being created at Shivlakha is significant: • 144-acre integrated campus • Initial container capacity of ~10,000 TEUs annually • Proposed wagon capacity of ~2,400 units annually • ₹110 Cr registered freight-terminal project • ₹80 Cr eligible project cost • ICD for handling import and export cargo The strategy can be summarised as: Manufacturing → Rail Connectivity → ICD / Logistics → Port Connectivity 👉 ₹18.81 CR PREFERENTIAL WARRANT ISSUE BSE has granted in-principle approval for the company's ₹18.81 Cr preferential warrant issue. The issue involves: • 3,23,123 warrants • Issue price: ₹582 per warrant • ₹10 Cr intended for capex • ₹5.5 Cr for working capital • ~₹3.3 Cr for general corporate purposes Full conversion would result in roughly 4.3% post-issue dilution. 👉 REFRIGERATED CONTAINERS + ICEBATTERY Another interesting adjacency is the agreement with ITE, Japan, covering refrigerated containers and IceBattery technology. This could open applications across: • Food • Pharmaceuticals • Vaccines • Temperature-sensitive cargo However, customer validation and actual order wins remain the next proof points. 👉 CURRENT FINANCIAL BASE The existing business is still relatively small: • FY26 Revenue: ₹150 Cr • Operating Profit: ₹22 Cr • PAT: ₹17 Cr • Operating Cash Flow: ₹18 Cr • Last disclosed Order Book: ₹60 Cr Against this, management has stated a long-term revenue ambition of ₹4,000–5,000 Cr. That gap captures both the opportunity and the risk. 👉 THE REAL TRIGGER The next trigger is not another announcement. The real test will be the conversion of the new assets into: Wagon orders + Recurring train movements + Third-party cargo + ICD revenue + Stronger cash flows 👉 KEY TAKEAWAY Kalyani Cast Tech's story is evolving from manufacturing containers to participating across the entire cargo journey. Manufacturing → Rail → ICD → Logistics → Port Connectivity The opportunity is potentially much larger than the existing container business. But the key question is whether the company can successfully convert this asset creation and expansion strategy into actual utilisation, revenue and cash flow.

GE POWER INDIA LTD. | THE FORGOTTEN POWER EQUIPMENT COMPANY SITTING INSIDE INDIA’S ELECTRICITY SUPERCYCLE 👉 India's power story is usually told through: → Generation capacity → Transmission → Renewables → BESS → Data centres 👉 But there is another layer that gets less attention: The equipment required to keep India's existing and new power plants running. That is where GE Power India becomes interesting. 👉 The company is going through a major transformation. From: Large EPC + equipment projects To: Services + upgrades + high-margin aftermarket + specialised power technology 👉 WHAT DOES GE POWER INDIA ACTUALLY DO? GE Power India operates primarily in: → Power generation equipment → Steam turbines → Boilers → Generators → Air-quality / emission-control systems → Plant upgrades → Repairs & maintenance → Long-term service → Digital / engineering services 👉 The company has historically been deeply involved in India's thermal-power ecosystem. But the business mix is changing. Management has explicitly identified Core Services as the backbone of the current and future strategy. 👉 THE REAL INVESTMENT THESIS The interesting thesis is NOT: “Thermal power is coming back.” It is: “India is becoming dramatically more electricity-intensive, and an enormous installed base of power-generation assets will need to be maintained, modernised, upgraded and made more efficient.” This creates a large opportunity across: Maintenance + Repairs + Upgrades + Modernisation + Long-term Services + Aftermarket 👉 WHY THE BUSINESS MIX MATTERS Large EPC and equipment projects can be: • Capital intensive • Execution heavy • Working-capital intensive • Lower visibility businesses Services, upgrades and aftermarket activities can potentially provide: Higher margins + recurring opportunities + better cash generation + stronger customer relationships That makes the shift in business mix important to watch. 👉 THE BIG OPPORTUNITY India's rising electricity demand means the country needs not only new generation capacity, but also better utilisation and efficiency from its existing power-generation fleet. This creates demand for: Equipment upgrades + Plant modernisation + Repairs & maintenance + Emission-control systems + Long-term service + Specialised power technology GE Power India's large installed presence in the power-generation ecosystem can potentially help it monetise this opportunity. 👉 THE REAL TRANSFORMATION TO WATCH From selling power equipment ↓ To monetising the installed power fleet If GE Power India can successfully capture this opportunity while continuing to improve its mix toward services, upgrades and cash-accretive orders, the company could become a very different business from the one it was a few years ago. That is the transformation worth watching.

NRB BEARINGS | FROM “JUST ANOTHER AUTO ANCILLARY” TO A POTENTIAL PRECISION-ENGINEERING STORY? NRB Bearings is a 1965-founded Indian manufacturer of precision friction solutions. Its core products include needle roller bearings, cylindrical roller bearings, tapered/spherical bearings, thrust bearings and precision components such as planetary shafts, crank pins, kingpins and cages. The company has 3,000+ designs, while Crisil estimates NRB controls around 65–70% of India’s needle roller bearing market. The interesting part is that bearings are tiny components, but they are mission-critical. They sit inside gearboxes, steering systems, engines, axles and other moving systems. A bearing may cost only a few hundred rupees, but its failure can damage a much larger and more expensive system. More importantly, once an OEM designs and validates an NRB bearing into its platform, replacing that supplier is not easy, because the complete system may need to be re-tested. That is the real moat. NRB has already demonstrated this. Its bearings are used across BMW’s 1 Series to 7 Series and Mercedes’ A-Class to Maybach transmissions. Lifetime nominated business has increased from ₹800 Cr to ₹1,100 Cr. But the bigger investment story is not the existing needle-bearing business. It is the attempt to move up the value chain. 🔹 FROM BEARING SUPPLIER TO FRICTION-SOLUTIONS PROVIDER NRB increasingly wants to become a “friction solutions provider” rather than simply a bearing supplier. Instead of selling only a standard bearing, it is developing customised combinations of bearings, shafts, housings and other precision parts around the customer's engineering problem. This can open the door to higher-value structural products and deeper customer relationships. 🔹 PRODUCT PIPELINE • Cylindrical roller bearings for agriculture, industrial gearboxes and railways. • Spherical and thrust bearings for heavy-duty and aerospace applications. • One-way clutches as a new product line. • Hybrid ceramic and insulated bearings targeting electrical-erosion problems in EV motors. • Wheel-hub bearings, increasing NRB's content per vehicle. 🔹 PRECISION MACHINING | AEROSPACE & DEFENCE The Mahant Tool Room acquisition gives NRB an entry into aerospace, aviation and defence components. It has already received a Sukhoi-30 spherical-bearing order through HAL. The target is ambitious: ₹300 Cr revenue + ₹90 Cr profit contribution by FY31. 🔹 ROBOTICS — A DIFFERENT OPPORTUNITY The robotics angle is particularly interesting. Instead of competing only in bearings, NRB can potentially manufacture the shafts, housings and bearing assemblies used in robot joints. That is fundamentally different from supplying a commodity-like bearing. 🔹 UNITEC JV | INDUSTRIAL PLATFORM NRB's 75%-owned Unitec JV is focused on cylindrical roller bearings and linear-motion products. The plant is scheduled for commissioning in April 2027, with around ₹110 Cr investment and ₹130 Cr capacity. 🔹 THE BIG QUESTION — CAN THE STORY TURN INTO BETTER ECONOMICS? Today, the transformation is still more story than numbers. Around ₹414 Cr of announced investment is being made. However, roughly 75% is still going into expansion of existing bearing categories, while only around 25% is directed toward newer higher-value businesses. Industrial contribution has increased from 11% to 14%, but NRB does not disclose segment-level margins. So the key question is whether these new businesses can eventually change the company's overall economics. 🔹 PIPELINE IS GETTING INTERESTING Several developments are worth tracking: • Corvette planet pins are already being produced in the US. • BMW i steering starts in 2027. • Ceramic/insulated bearings have a railway nomination. • One-way clutch products have six development orders. • Mahant is building the aerospace platform. • NRB is exploring robotics, humanoids, drones, urban air mobility, automated transit and data-centre cooling. 🔹 ₹1,100 CR LIFETIME NOMINATED BUSINESS This is one number worth watching closely. Lifetime nominated business has increased to ₹1,100 Cr. But there is an important caveat: ₹1,100 Cr is spread across roughly 5–8 years. It is therefore not ₹1,100 Cr of annual revenue. The equivalent annualised revenue opportunity is roughly ₹140–220 Cr. 🔹 THE REAL NRB THESIS The opportunity isn't simply: “Bearings will grow.” The bigger question is whether NRB can evolve from a volume-driven automotive bearing manufacturer into a high-precision, customised structural-components company serving: Automotive + Aerospace + Defence + Industrial Automation + Robotics If that transition happens, the business could potentially deserve a very different valuation framework. But investors should demand proof. The key metrics to watch are: Higher-value revenue + Higher margins + Better ROCE + Better cash conversion That is where the NRB Bearings story gets genuinely interesting.

Latest addition to PF Sugslloyd Guided for 600 cr for fy 27 And 1000 crore revenue for fy28 Margins going to be maintained or improved. Got SCADA orders from railway. Also claims Company claims to have 50 percent market share in FPI ( Fault passage indicator) If company delivers we are looking 44 plus EPS.

RAYMOND LTD | GROWTH DRIVERS 🚀 Aerospace Growth - ₹510 Cr Gudipalli aerospace facility under construction across 45 acres near Bengaluru Airport. - Commercial production targeted for late 2027. - Facility could add ₹150–200 Cr revenue by FY29. - Existing aerospace facility has ₹600 Cr capacity. - Aerospace order book stands at ₹5,960+ Cr, excluding new-facility orders. 📈 Strong Aerospace Order Visibility - 10-year order book: ₹5,960+ Cr. - 5-year order book increased 17% sequentially to ₹2,765 Cr. - Active RFQ pipeline of ₹1,632 Cr across 2,000+ drawings. - Order book typically represents 2.5–3x revenue, providing multi-year visibility. - Supports management's 25% growth commitment. ⚡ Aerospace Production Ramp-Up - Q1 FY27 aerospace revenue grew 40% YoY to ₹123 Cr. - Added 100+ new SKUs in FY26. - More than one new part produced per day. - Q1 margin stood at 21.2%, impacted by R&D costs. - Mature EBITDA margin target of ~25%. 🚗 Auto Margin Expansion - Q1 FY27 auto revenue grew 11% to ₹444 Cr. - EBITDA increased 46% to ₹61 Cr. - EBITDA margin improved to 13.8% from 10.6%. - Growth driven by export ramp-up and operating leverage. - Management targets 15%+ annual margins. - Around 60% of auto business is export-driven. 🔋 Hybrid & EV Growth - ~15% of auto revenue now comes from hybrid and EV. - Hybrid is growing faster than EV in Europe. - Raymond has captured major share in hybrid transmissions. - Critical components are being horizontally deployed across customers. - New nominations from a leading European advanced-drivetrain company add another growth opportunity. 🏭 Andhra Auto Greenfield - New ₹430 Cr automotive component facility at Gudipalli across 32 acres. - Commercial production targeted for late FY27/FY28. - Existing capacity is already at 85–90% utilisation. - Expansion will support new EV, hybrid and next-generation mobility nominations. 🛠️ Automotive Aftermarket - Commercial rollout scheduled for Q2 FY27. - Leverages the 70-year JK Files brand and existing distribution network. - Uses existing OEM-grade manufacturing capacity. - Provides a capital-efficient new revenue stream without requiring significant new capacity. 💰 Warrant-Funded Acquisitions - Board approved ₹330.88 Cr preferential warrants to the promoter group. - 75% earmarked for acquisitions across aerospace, automotive and defence. - Remaining funds support capacity expansion at subsidiaries. - Creates funding capacity for inorganic growth without significant balance-sheet strain. 🛡️ Defence Value-Chain Upgrade - Won its maiden build-to-spec defence order from a leading defence aerospace OEM. - Raymond completely designed the specialised onboard storage systems. - Design certification has been received. - Moves the company from build-to-print toward integrated Tier-1.5 partner status. - Potentially opens a slower but higher-margin defence opportunity. 🏥 Medical Components Opportunity - Received certification for titanium and stainless-steel medical components. - Opens a new regulated segment adjacent to its existing precision-machining capabilities. - Importantly, the opportunity requires no incremental capex. KEY TAKEAWAY - Raymond's growth story is increasingly being driven by aerospace + advanced automotive + EV/hybrid + defence + medical components. - The biggest near-to-medium-term drivers are the ₹5,960+ Cr aerospace order book, new aerospace capacity, auto margin expansion, EV/hybrid nominations and ₹430 Cr auto greenfield. - The company is also moving up the value chain, particularly in defence and specialised aerospace components.

LUMINO INDUSTRIES | A GROWING POWER INFRA PLAY THAT LOOKS CHEAP Lumino’s current valuation looks cheap. The business is growing fast, capacity is expanding, and its product mix is evolving. I went deeper into the business to understand whether the current valuation is missing something. 🔹 THE BUSINESS Lumino operates across: • Aluminium conductors • Power cables & electrical wires • HTLS / advanced conductors • Power transmission & distribution EPC • Railway electrification • Solar & EHV projects It is not just a cables company. Conductors + Cables + EPC + Advanced power infra products That combination makes the story interesting. 🔹 FINANCIAL TRACK RECORD 📈 FY24 → FY26 Revenue: ₹1,407 Cr → ₹2,041 Cr EBITDA: ₹145 Cr → ₹239 Cr PAT: ₹87 Cr → ₹160 Cr CAGR: Revenue: ~20% EBITDA: ~28% PAT: ~36% FY26: EBITDA margin: 11.71% PAT margin: 7.66% ROE: 24.62% The important part: Profit growth has been faster than revenue growth. 🔹 THE ORDER BOOK FY24: ₹1,941 Cr FY25: ₹2,436 Cr FY26: ₹3,150 Cr That is roughly a 27% CAGR. But there is an interesting mix: Manufacturing: ₹1,158 Cr EPC: ₹1,992 Cr EPC currently dominates. Management wants to gradually move towards: Products: ~70–75% EPC: ~25–30% A more product-led mix could mean better execution and potentially better cash generation. 🔹 THE ADVANCED CONDUCTOR STORY ⚡ This is one of the most interesting parts of Lumino. Its portfolio includes ACAR, TACSR, AAAC, ACFR, ACSS, STACIR, GTACSR and Hi-TACSR. It also has technology relationships with: → Tokyo Rope for ACFR-HTLS → CTC Global for ACCC composite-core conductors These products can address: • Grid modernisation • Reconductoring • Higher-voltage transmission • Renewable integration • 400/765kV transmission This gives Lumino a more specialised conductor angle than a plain-vanilla conductor manufacturer. 🔹 CAPACITY RUNWAY 🏭 Existing manufacturing capacity is already ~79% utilised. So the next growth phase needs additional capacity. Lumino has acquired land at Ranihati, Howrah for a new manufacturing facility, with commercial production targeted in H2FY27, subject to approvals. The facility is planned for: • LV/HV power cables • Solar cables • Instrumentation cables • Railway signalling cables • HTLS conductors • Aluminium conductors • Specialised cables A proposed e-beam cable curing facility adds another technology angle. Capacity → Utilisation → Revenue → Earnings That is the growth chain I will be watching. 🔹 EXPORTS 🌍 FY26 exports were ~₹369 Cr, around 18% of revenue. Lumino already has a presence across Africa, Bangladesh, Nepal and other international markets. The opportunity is to increase the export contribution while scaling higher-value products. 🔹 DEBT COULD CHANGE THE STORY ₹337 Cr of IPO proceeds are earmarked for debt repayment/prepayment. FY26 total debt: ₹384 Cr. If the repayment is applied against that debt and no new borrowing replaces it, debt could theoretically fall towards ~₹47 Cr. That could materially strengthen the balance sheet. 🔹 THE BIG QUESTION ⚠️ Working capital. Working capital increased: FY24: ₹226 Cr FY25: ₹684 Cr FY26: ₹717 Cr Debtor days reached 145. CFO was negative ₹239 Cr in FY25, before recovering to ₹156 Cr in FY26. So I like the growth story. But I want to see whether Lumino can convert that growth into cash consistently. 🔹 FY27/FY28 — MY SCENARIO FY26A: ₹2,041 Cr If Lumino sustains ~25% annual growth: FY27E: ~₹2,551 Cr FY28E: ~₹3,189 Cr These are my estimates, not management guidance. The key assumption is that new capacity ramps up, manufacturing contribution increases and growth remains healthy. 🔹 VALUATION At around ₹104–106: Market cap: ~₹3,200 Cr FY26 P/E: ~20× For a business that delivered ~36% PAT CAGR between FY24–26, I don't find ~20× earnings expensive. The market is not pricing Lumino as a high-growth business yet. That is where I see the potential opportunity. 🔹 LUMINO VS LASER Laser is more cable-centric, particularly in HT and speciality cables. Lumino has: More depth in conductors + Advanced conductor technology + Growing HT/HV cable play I have covered Laser in detail earlier and will link that post in the comments. 🔹 THE THESIS Lumino already has: ✓ Strong revenue growth ✓ Faster PAT growth ✓ ₹3,150 Cr order book ✓ Advanced conductor capabilities ✓ New manufacturing capacity ✓ Export potential ✓ Significant debt-repayment opportunity The biggest challenge is working capital. But if Lumino can execute the capacity expansion, increase the product-led mix, reduce debt and improve cash conversion, the earnings profile could look very different. At ~20× FY26 earnings, I think Lumino is being valued quite conservatively. That’s why I find Lumino interesting at current levels. 👀