Hudson War Mapping - Reporting on the Ukraine War

I believe in the medium term, Russian movements could be as follows, forming a unified front against Druzhkivka from the south. Due to the opportunity of Russia to form many pincers here, I am concerned about Ukraine's ability to defend so many potential pockets whilst falling back to Druzhkivka in a manner where they can inflict attrition back on the Russians.

I'm very concerned about the advance of the Russians toward Druzhkivka and Dobropillya at the moment. They broke through for 5 kilometres to Pryyut and Torske, and advanced on a wide front from Myrne to Dorozhnye (including into the towns of Chernihivka and Svitle). The Russians also expanded their breakthrough to Ivashchyne to a depth of 9 kilometres total and north and south to Shyroke and Anyshchyne. The map has already been updated, specific updates on each advance will be posted soon.

Dobropillya direction, Donetsk oblast. The situation is extremely difficult. Russian DRGs have pushed past the Kramatorsk-Dobropilla hwy, infiltrating close to the first strees of Bilozerske. They also infiltrate along the railway line into southeastern Dobropillya, although this is not sustained enough to add a grey zone. I suspect that this is happening due to assault units being tied down in south Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk oblast.

Velykyy Burluk direction, Kharkiv oblast. Russian forces, after glide bomb and artillery preparation, made a breakthrough of 7 kilometres deep into Ivashchyne and Ustynivka. I mistakenly reported this as highly unlikely due to a lack of sentinel imagery evidence, but DeepState has since confirmed.

I spoke to four different sources knowledgeable about this matter. The threat from Iran was issued by the Ukrainian GUR, notifying the military of this potential threat. The threat is related to a launch site near the city of Tabriz, northwestern Iran. The report states that up to three medium-range ballistic missiles could be launched at military infrastructure facilities in Kyiv some time in the next 48 hours. One source told me it's "widely expected internally”, presumably due to the Ukrainian attack on an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea. This confirms the intelligence report's validity beyond simple rumours, however, I still SERIOUSLY doubt anything will actually happen. This seems like a precautionary measure to me, rather than a genuine threat. But we will see, I suppose. Keep in mind, this post is NOT meant to spread hype or misinformation. It is simply information that I have received from sources who have been reliable in the past. I will update further if anything else comes of this.

It’s CONFIRMED.

No way… right?

VERY unusual reports coming out of Ukrainian military-linked monitoring channels just now, with warnings of a possible IRANIAN medium-range ballistic missile attack on Ukraine in the next 24 hours. This comes after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that Ukraine's attack on an Iranian-linked vessel in the Caspian Sea a few days ago "cannot go unanswered". As of now, these reports are very preliminary. I'm not convinced anything will happen, but I'm just putting the information out there so people are aware.

Russian infiltrations in many areas of the front are quickly getting deeper - though consolidation is rarely assured.

Because of these unprecedented Russian DRG infiltrations north of Dobropillya, up to 10.5 km from the nearest Russian zone of control, one of two main logistical routes leading into the city - the Kramatorsk-Dobropillya Highway - is now effectively unusable. Until Ukraine is able to clear out these DRGs, they will be forced to only use the Novodonetske-Dobropillya Highway further west, which Russian DRGs are also very close to, or other smaller dirt roads. This creates a sort of "funnelling" effect, with a higher concentration of Ukrainian movement down this one main road, providing more targets for Russian FPV drones. What's also notable is the Russian DRG infiltrations into the southeastern parts of Dobropillya, as well as the infiltration of multiple small assault groups into the eastern part of Hannivka, just east of the city, which ties up limited Ukrainian resources that could be used to help defend against intensified Russian offensive operations elsewhere in this sector.

One fairly well-established fact about the Chasiv Yar salient is that it, alongside the strongpoints near Mykolaipillya (west of Kostyantynivka), were the only reason why Russia has been unable to fully capture Kostyantynivka so far. Once the remaining Ukrainian forces withdraw from the cluster of villages west of Chasiv Yar, Russia will be able to fully consolidate in the northwestern and northern parts of Kostyantynivka, and begin storming operations on Oleksijevo-Druzhkivka.

The city of Chasiv Yar has officially fallen.

Additionally, the deepest Russian assault forces have just entered the first street of Oleksiyevo-Druzhkivka. The battle for the town is underway.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces are withdrawing from the Chasiv Yar-Mykolaivka-Chervone area. For the first time since the battle’s beginning in 2023 is no longer permanent Ukrainian presence in the city of Chasiv Yar.

Kostyantinivka has fallen to Russia. A major loss for Ukraine in the defence for the twin cities of Slavyansk-Kramatorsk.

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Omelnyk direction, Zaporizhzhya oblast. Russian forces continued to clear Ukrainian presence in Zaliznychne and now control over 80% of the town. Meanwhile, the frontline around Verkhnya Tersa and Tsvitkove was clarified using the assistance of satellite imagery.

Komar direction, S Donetsk oblast. Ukrainian forces are continuing their counteroffensive actions toward the town of Komar, their reported tactical goal in this direction. They continue to acheive successes south of Piddubne, in Voskresenka, and toward into Yalta. Meanwhile, Russian forces reconsolidated in some grey zone of Dnepropetrovsk oblast near Kalynivske and south of Verbove.

Druzhkivka direction, Donetsk oblast. Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in Chasiv Yar and pushed Ukraine back out of the main part of the city. Russia also advanced into Chervone from the south, putting further pressure on Ukrainian forces holding out in Mykolaivka and Chasiv Yar.