Macro Trader

China's latest revival plans. Beijing halved the stamp duty on stock trades and pledged to slow the pace of IPOs in an effort to revive confidence. The CSRC said restrictions will also be set on the frequency and size of refinancing for some firms, with property developers exempted from the rule. Meanwhile, Hong Kong plans a task force to boost liquidity. Chinese industrial profits weakened.

Bye.

나스닥 100 지수 선물, +1%.

내용을 보자면 현재의 높은 금리를 더 오래 유지하겠다는 동시에 언젠가 또 한 번의 금리인상이 있다고 말하는 바지만(That’s all an endorsement of higher-for-longer, as well as holding out the threat of another hike.), 최근 몇 주간 상승해 온 채권 금리를 볼 때 이 또한 놀랄만한 일이 아님(there doesn’t appear to be much marginal surprise there.). *POWELL: MAY STILL BE SIGNIFICANT FURTHER DRAG FROM PAST HIKES *POWELL: REAL RATES POSITIVE, WELL ABOVE MOST NEUTRAL ESTIMATES *POWELL: ‘WE CANNOT IDENTIFY WITH CERTAINTY’ THE NEUTRAL RATE

공개 된 연설문을 보자면 긴축을 필요할 경우 더 해야 한다는 의지를 보이고 있으나, 언제 해야 한다는 확정은 없음. 이는 이미 시장 가격에 반영 된 사항임(that has already been priced into the market.). 게다가 중립금리(R*)에 대해 그는 명확한 결론을 아직 내리지 못한 것으로 보임. 연설문의 중요 부분은 다음과 같음. *POWELL: FED PREPARED TO RAISE RATES FURTHER IF APPROPRIATE *POWELL: PERSISTENT ABOVE-TREND GROWTH COULD WARRANT TIGHTENING *POWELL: RESTRICTIVE POLICY UNTIL INFLATION SUSTAINABLY SLOWING *POWELL: 2% INFLATION NEEDS BELOW-TREND GROWTH, LABOR SOFTENING *POWELL: ATTENTIVE TO SIGNS ECONOMY NOT COOLING AS EXPECTED

Bottom-line: 아직 물가 목표에 완전히 도달하지 못해 해야 할 일이 많다는 것을 재차 강조함. “Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” Powell said in the text of a speech Friday at the US central bank’s annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”

Powell Remarks Friday at Jackson Hole

8월 17일과 8월 18일 기사와 나스닥 100 지수 선물을 보면 흥미로움.

China Ramps Up Fight With Yuan Bears to Stop Selloff Spiraling Sudden Rally in China Stocks Has Traders Scratching Their Heads 오늘 읽은 기사와 차트.

성과 성과와 관련 해, 비교지수 대비 차이는 계속 확대되고 있으나 7월 후반부터 뉴스 흐름 자체가 8월에 대한 경각심을 주었음. 그럼에도 불구하고, 완전하게 하락을 방어하진 못함. 아래는 7월 후반부터 최근까지 눈여겨봤던 블룸버그 뉴스 제목이며, 마치 한 편의 드라마를 보는 것처럼 긴장이 고조되고, 절정까지 오른 느낌임. 그 다음 순서는 각자의 대응에 달려 있겠지만, The Great Bear-Market Unwinding Is Happening at a Frenetic Clip (7/22) Stock Market’s 2023 Surge Faces Fed Test Even as Profits Improve (7/23) Bond Traders Bet on ‘Nirvana Scenario’ in New Yield-Curve Theory (7/24) New Risks Shadow Bond Market as Fed’s Rate-Hike Cycle Nears End (7/30) Stocks Are Doing So Well That It May Be Time to Start Worrying (7/30) Global Yields March to 15-Year Highs as Rate-Hike Worries Build (8/17) BofA’s Warning of a ‘5% World’ Sinks in as Bond Yields Surge (8/18)

사담 블룸버그 주요 기사, 그리고 국내외 증권사 보고서를 예와 같이 읽고 요약하고 있으나 채널에 업로드하는 일이 최근 드물었음. 최근 모건스탠리에서 발간 한 두 가지 보고서를 통해 중국과 한국에 대한 고민을 좀 더 해 볼 수 있어 제목을 공유함. China's 3D Journey: How China could avoid a 1990s Japan situation Korea Musings: Ripple Effects from China

The Chinese central bank sold 299b yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase agreements at 1.8%, according to a statement on PBOC website.

China’s central bank unexpectedly reduced a key interest rate by the most since 2020 to bolster an economy that’s facing fresh risks from a worsening property slump and weak consumer spending.

Bottom-line: Cause for Pause. US core inflation rose 0.2% in July for a second month, the smallest back-to-back gains in more than two years, reinforcing speculation the Fed can hold off on more hikes for now.