Macro Trader

The Bank of England has brought the most aggressive cycle of interest-rate rises in more than three decades to a close amid falling inflation and mounting fears of recession. The central bank held rates at 5.25%, ending a series of 14 successive hikes since December 2021, when rates were just 0.1%.

오늘 읽은 기사들의 제목, - The Fed’s Dream of a Soft Landing Is Facing a Triple Threat - Everyone’s Worrying About China, But the Real Pain Is Coming From the Fed (China Worries Dominate, But the Real Pain Is Coming From the Fed) - Why Markets Didn’t Call Powell’s Bluff (Markets Connect the Dots and Give Powell a Break)

90분 자고, 일어나서 출근 아닌가. 🥺

“Although Fed Sentiment was a hair less dovish, the overall sentiment score remained near neutral. We think short end rates risk rising given the Fed’s willingness to maintain rates near the peak. The Fed is not near dovish.”

The markets have steadily pared rate cut expectations for next year.

Powell: “People hate inflation. Hate it.” 그치, 그대도 그 사람 중 한명이지.

Policy in the so-called ‘last mile’ for inflation. 파월의 기자회견에서는 과거 어느 때보다 무언가를 결정하기에 복잡한 영역에 있다는 것을 알게 해줌. 물가상승률이 둔화되고 있다 하더라도 정책적으로는 마지막 고비에 와 있기 때문임. 통화정책을 통해 물가를 조정하는 방법으로 볼 때, 지금 시점이야말로 가능성이 희박한 경제의 연착륙과 경기침체 사이의 기로에 있기 때문임. 시장 참여자들에게 파월이 계속적으로 신중한 발언을 이어가는 이유가 여기에 있음.

Stocks briefly hit their session lows as of 3:09 p.m. in New York.

Powell: “We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting based on the totality of the incoming data and their implications for the outlook for economic activity and inflation.” : 통화정책회의에서 금리결정은 온전히 향후 얻게 되는 경제지표에 의할 것이라는 기존 입장을 유지함. “We’re prepared to raise rates further if appropriate.” : 그렇기 때문에, 필요할 경우 추가적인 금리인상도 가능하다고 밝힘. “I do think it’s possible.” : 경제가 연착륙 가능할 것 같냐는 질문에 그렇게 본다고 답함. “The time will come at some point, and I’m not saying when, that it’s appropriate to cut.” : 언젠가 금리를 인하할 때가 오겠지만, 언제가 될진 알 수 없다고 함. “That’s what we have been trying to achieve. But the worse thing to do is to fail to restore price stability." : 경제를 연착륙 시키는 일도 중요하지만, 물가를 안정 시키지 못하면 그것이 더 큰일이라고 함.

“The time will come at some point, and I’m not saying when, that it’s appropriate to cut.”

There are a lot of new numbers today, but the forecast for a lower unemployment rate than previously expected is a standout. The Fed is saying that, even as rates stay punishingly high, unemployment will now top out at 4.1% instead of 4.5%. That seems like a very bullish call.

• Key: 금리인하 폭이 시장 예상보다 덜하며, 물가 목표치 도달도 2026년에나 가능할 것으로 전망했음.

It is worth noting that rates are going to be higher for longer because...the Fed sees inflation remaining higher for longer. Officials project inflation will fall below 3% next year and see it returning to its 2% target in 2026.

Essentially, there are an equal number of officials expecting 2024 rates of 4.875% to 5.125%. Compared with the current level of 5.625%, that implies 50-75 bps of cuts. Going into the meeting, the market was looking for about 85 bps of cuts. So we see some rate cut expectations trimming just a bit.

Britain’s inflation rate fell unexpectedly despite a surge in fuel prices, easing pressure for further interest-rate increases from the Bank of England.