Macro Trader

핸디는 거짓말을 안한다고 믿으면, 이 차트가 의미하는 바가 있으며, 입스가 왔다 생각하면, 또 다른 의미로 보일 수 있음.

채권 투자자는 못해도 더블 보기 정도였으나, 최근 쿼드러플 보기를 연속하는 상황. 🥶

US Treasury bonds due May 2050 briefly sank below the 50-cent level for the second time in the past two months. The move underscores investor pain from Fed tightening after piling into rock-bottom interest rates during the pandemic.

Prices paid to US producers increased in August by the most in more than a year, boosted by rising energy and transportation costs.

Arm priced its IPO at $51 a share, the top end of the marketed range, raising $4.87 billion and valuing itself at about $54.5 billion. The company had marketed 95.5 million shares for $47 to $51 each. The stock is set to start trading on the Nasdaq on Thursday.

Traders See Fed in ‘Wait-and-See’ Mode After CPI.

채널이 죽은 것 같지만, 웬지 중요한 이벤트는 다 보고 있는 그런 느낌이지.

Apple's Product Launch Event, key takeaways.

재밌는 일이다.

'reference', '누구의 말'에 의하면, '저명한 어느 연구기관'에 의하면, 이와 같은 참조를 많이 사용하는데, 그 참조 된 곳의 정확성이 높아서 그것을 인용하는 것인지, 아니면, 내가 지금 '하고 싶은 말'을 거기서 하고 싶어서인지를 보는 것도,

그런 것 자체가 군중 심리다.

because for the moment it seems as if almost nobody expects one.

고빈도 데이터를 활용한 예측 모델 중 그 정확도가 상당히 '낮았던' 이곳을 왜 언급하는가?

It’s worth remembering that the forecasting track record of the Cleveland Fed model is quite poor on a high-frequency basis, as I discussed in a column early this year.

t’s worth remembering that the forecasting track record of the Cleveland Fed model is quite poor on a high-frequency basis, as I discussed in a column early this year.

최근 클리브랜드 연준 모델의 예측에 대한 이야기를 많이 하는 것 같은데,

That being said, it does feel like the whisper consensus is coalescing firmly around upside risks to Wednesday’s number. I think I have heard more references to the Cleveland Fed nowcast (which forecasts a monthly headline rise of 0.79%, with core at 0.38) in the past few days than I had in quite some time.